Fighting Fifth

rossom

Fighting Fifth

Trifolium 16/1

Should have put this up last night when he was 25/1 with 3 places paid but 16/1 in this 6 runner field still is a huge price about Charles Byrnes 5 year old. 3rd last year in the Supreme Novice, Trifolium finished 1.5L behind Cinders and Ashes and a neck behind Darlan and those 2 rivals reoppose on Saturday and are as short as 2/1 and 6/4 in the betting. On the basis of that alone it makes Trifolium's price look ridiculous but I think Trifolium would have actually won had he not had a slip coming around the home turn and the price disparity between him and those 2 rivals is crazy in my eyes. Moreso, he comes he race fit after a recent spin (his two rivals make their seasonal reappearances) and although he was disappointing it most certainly looked like he was just out for a spin in my eyes. Charles Byrnes does not send his horses across the water unless they are fancied and although I am on myself at a bigger price he still looks well worth taking at 16s.

Goldcupfav

What firm the 16/1 with ? best i see on oddschecker is 12/1

the groutch

the 16's with bet£3.65 went 5 minutes before you posted this Ross

hucklebuck

Good shout didnt realise he was going for it. He will definitely appreciately the likely dead ground and trainer and likely jockey had a hurdler win today.

12s with B365, 8s with Powers.

Johner

Looks a very open race. Big fan of Cinders and Ashes but I think the value is definitely in Trifolium. Probably wont have a bet in the race though.

ste2010

Cinders and ashes ....loves heavy !
..he flattened 2 hurdles and still won the supreme...so I think his overall performance in the supreme didn't touch his ability, I think he was way ahead of the rest in the field! he's the class horse in the race on heavy but I don't think he will improve much from last year...If it was on g or g to s I'd have my reservations.
I'm an avid follower of Charlie byrnes when he goes overseas (spotted knockfierna-last min today :-) and as much as trifolium loves the mud too I don't think he'll beat him...
I could see Darlan being a non runner, can't imagine the weather in Newcastle being great..I think Darlan will be one to watch for the champion hurdle this year

3ndahalfof6

Is this at lingfield, tis the only meeting running.

mountai

Now 12s with Stan James. Just got on ,

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

Cinders and ashes ....loves heavy !
..he flattened 2 hurdles and still won the supreme...so I think his overall performance in the supreme didn't touch his ability, I think he was way ahead of the rest in the field! he's the class horse in the race on heavy but I don't think he will improve much from last year...If it was on g or g to s I'd have my reservations.
I'm an avid follower of Charlie byrnes when he goes overseas (spotted knockfierna-last min today :-) and as much as trifolium loves the mud too I don't think he'll beat him...
I could see Darlan being a non runner, can't imagine the weather in Newcastle being great..I think Darlan will be one to watch for the champion hurdle this year

Cinders And Ashes was beaten on his reappearance last year which is a massive negative. I think he is a truly awful price at 6/4.

I agree that Darlan will probably not run but as this is ante-post there will be no rule 4 making it look a stronger bet.

I don't think any of last years representatives from the Supreme (Trifolium included) will be anywhere near good enough to make the frame in the Champion Hurdle

the groutch wrote: »

the 16's with bet£3.65 went 5 minutes before you posted this Ross

Must have changed when I was writing it. 12s is still value in my book. Very happy with my 25s with 3 places!

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Is this at lingfield, tis the only meeting running.

Newcastle on Saturday.

3ndahalfof6

Tried to find it but I hit the wall, do you have a race time.

ste2010

rossom wrote: »

Cinders And Ashes was beaten on his reappearance last year which is a massive negative. I think he is a truly awful price at 6/4.

I agree that Darlan will probably not run but as this is ante-post there will be no rule 4 making it look a stronger bet.

I don't think any of last years representatives from the Supreme (Trifolium included) will be anywhere near good enough to make the frame in the Champion Hurdle



Must have changed when I was writing it. 12s is still value in my book. Very happy with my 25s with 3 places!



Newcastle on Saturday.

In fairness rossom it was a good horse that bet him and would have been no surprise to see him winning a race at Cheltenham if he wasn't off the course given hendersons form last march. Not to mention cinders and ashes blundered in the race which if anything that is the negative I would be more concerned about (his jumping)

The price of Cinders and ashes and darlan are awful in fairness...of all ROR deserves his place at the head of the market. Without sounding cliche if ruby and nicholls were etched beside his name... i dont think last years champion hurdle was a fluke..ROR loves Cheltenham and could well have beaten binocular had he not clipped the second last at kempton..
That aside I think you certainly have the value of the race but I can't see trifolium winning...and if anything I would consider an each way as back up especially given Darlan a probable exit. But I think cinders and ashes will win this

mountai

still at 12s Stan James. Go on their site . click" horse racing" you will see "Lingfield" Click on this , drop down to "Future Racing " and follow through.

Harry Angstrom

Even though Rock On Ruby isn't my idea of a great Champion Hurdle winner, I think Paddy Power might be a bit generous with their offer of 100/30. Cinders And Ashes is too short for what he's achieved so far. If Rock On Ruby can reproduce the sort of form that saw him go close to winning last year's Christmas Hurdle, not to mention his Champion Hurdle victory, he's still the one they all have to beat on Saturday.

rossom

I would agree that Rock On Ruby should be at the head of the market for this and 100% agree if the names Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh were down beside his name he'd probably be about a 2/1 - 6/4 shot. Although this is just speculation, given that Rock On Ruby was trained in the Nicholls '2nd' yard which Harry Fry pretty much controlled there is no doubt in my mind that Fry probably had the greatest input into his training. Certainly wouldn't discourage anyone from taking him at 10/3

kennyb3

Looks like he is going for the hatton's grace now. Entered on sunday

ft9

Was looking forward to tackling the 5/1 quoted on Grandouet in this. He's going for the International instead.

Looks a no bet race to me at the minute.

faoile@n

Darlan a likely non runner according to @CheltFestNews

premierstone

faoile@n wrote: »

Darlan a likely non runner according to @CheltFestNews

Darlan was never a likely runner on the forecasted ground tbf, he won't be seen on soft ground.

ste2010

It will be a 2 horse race at this rate

Slattsy

Darlan out
Rock on Ruby out

Harry Angstrom

Slattsy wrote: »

Darlan out
Rock on Ruby out

Feck sake. It'll be a walkover by Saturday.

mountai

Lovely Jubbly . Rossom and I will be able to collect on Trifolium.!!!!!

ste2010

mountai wrote: »

Lovely Jubbly . Rossom and I will be able to collect on Trifolium.!!!!!

Don't count your chickens until your eggs have crossed the road...

ft9

ste2010 wrote: »

Don't count your chickens until your eggs have crossed the road...

They've probably got it backed Ante at mad prices with 1,2,3 ew.

3ndahalfof6

ste2010 wrote: »

Don't count your chickens until your eggs have crossed the road...

I will be thinking about this tomorrow and probably for the next few days, like most things, it will just pop into my head at some stage how I can avoid this.

NaiveMelodies

ft9 wrote: »

They've probably got it backed Ante at mad prices with 1,2,3 ew.

Yea but it hasn't got around yet!!! Looks good though fingers crossed he gets the nose in front.

5k for 4th, free trip for Byrnes, anyone know do horses still collect if they fail to finish and theres prize money for last place??

mountai

Even at 5/1 I think Trifolium is good value. There wasnt that much between CanA at Cheltenham. The slip on the bend didnt do Trifolium any favours that day. The going will be no bother and the Pilot on board is no slouch either.

ft9

only1stevo wrote: »

Yea but it hasn't got around yet!!! Looks good though fingers crossed he gets the nose in front.

5k for 4th, free trip for Byrnes, anyone know do horses still collect if they fail to finish and theres prize money for last place??

No they don't.

ste2010

only1stevo wrote: »

Yea but it hasn't got around yet!!! Looks good though fingers crossed he gets the nose in front.

5k for 4th, free trip for Byrnes, anyone know do horses still collect if they fail to finish and theres prize money for last place??

The lads got on at 16's I think.. Great price and a pity I didn't go each way before the withdrawals...Trifolium has a race user his belt which is a positive but
Cinders and ashes loves the mud and In my opinion you will see they are in a different league come Saturday.
The only thing in c and a's way ate the hurdles..which are significant given he's not that great hurdler..that said 16's or even 5's is great value. I'm sorry I didn't get on more on cinders and ashes

hucklebuck

I would be more concerned that Davy hasnt gone over to ride.

Mc Cain regards Cinders very highly.

Did I tell you on the way to Cheltenham we were delayed and dumped in Cardiff. We gota taxi to Chelt so as not to miss the first three. Four of us chatting all with different opinions on the supreme when a hearse went in front of us and turned into a crematorium, we decided it was a sign and were all backing cinders but me missed the off.

rossom

hucklebuck wrote: »

I would be more concerned that Davy hasnt gone over to ride.

Mc Cain regards Cinders very highly.

Did I tell you on the way to Cheltenham we were delayed and dumped in Cardiff. We gota taxi to Chelt so as not to miss the first three. Four of us chatting all with different opinions on the supreme when a hearse went in front of us and turned into a crematorium, we decided it was a sign and were all backing cinders but me missed the off.

Davy isn't riding First Lieutenant either at Newbury so he may be banned? No declarations after today

Oscars Well.

The owner of Cinders and Ashes lives not far from me, he said a few weeks ago that they expected him to win and Rock on Ruby was the one they were worried about. He's out now aswell as Darlan so I'd be very confident he'll win.

faoile@n

Trifolium has had a wind operation since his last run.

I'd happily oppose Ciinders and Ashes at the prices.

rossom

Oscars Well. wrote: »

The owner of Cinders and Ashes lives not far from me, he said a few weeks ago that they expected him to win and Rock on Ruby was the one they were worried about. He's out now aswell as Darlan so I'd be very confident he'll win.

I don't really like him at all for tomorrow. Pretty confident that one of Countrywide Flame or Trifolium will beat him and wouldn't surprise me if both did. Couldn't back him with stolen money at odds on.

Backstreet Moyes

rossom wrote: »

Davy isn't riding First Lieutenant either at Newbury so he may be banned? No declarations after today

Davy is riding in Fairyhouse.

rossom

Nuts102 wrote: »

Davy is riding in Fairyhouse.

Fair enough. Nothing came up when I checked his declarations on RP

ste2010

rossom wrote: »

Fair enough. Nothing came up when I checked his declarations on RP

Strange..you'd think he'd want to win the Hennessy in his career...the only big one on fairyhouse is big worrrier :-) or midnight game...

Would you read into that as a negative for first lieutenant or maybe Davy is giving Bryan cooper a chance given he rode him fairly well in down royal?

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

Strange..you'd think he'd want to win the Hennessy in his career...the only big one on fairyhouse is big worrrier :-) or midnight game...

Would you read into that as a negative for first lieutenant or maybe Davy is giving Bryan cooper a chance given he rode him fairly well in down royal?

Can't make head nor tail of it. More than likely a negative

Backstreet Moyes

Suprised Davy is not gone over to ride Trifolium. He was raving about him at a Cheltenham preview night and expecting big things. I backed him at Cheltenham and he is too big at 5's i will be backing him again tomorrow.

UrbanSea

About 1.5 to not be on tomorrow.


If it's rescheduled I assume they'll reopen decs? And will they refund bets or let them run?

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

About 1.5 to not be on tomorrow.


If it's rescheduled I assume they'll reopen decs? And will they refund bets or let them run?

Depends on the bookie from experience..bet365 I think refunded mine in last if I an recall and boyles held the bet for rescheduled date. Don't know whether it was all good will

ft9

Newcastle goes ahead.

prettyboy81

Countrywide Flame very impressive, Triumph winner beats Supreme winner!

mountai

Very impressive winner . Anyone know what might have gone wrong with Trifolium , cause he went out like a light.

Morgans

Nothing wrong with Trifolium. The gamble was that he wasnt going to be as bad as his first run this year. He was.

mountai

Well I gambled on him on the basis he was only beaten 3/4 length in Cheltenham. He seemed to be going ok until the switch was thrown.His best efforts have been in heavy ground. Just dont understand his effort.

Morgans

It is easy to understand though and was in keeping with his last run which was horrible. There are reasons why he wasn't the same price as Cinders and Ashes, who he was so close to at cheltenham. The only reason why he was seen as a value price was if you ignored the last run.

Wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if Byrnes has the Country hurdle in mind for him.

ft9

Morgans wrote: »

It is easy to understand though and was in keeping with his last run which was horrible. There are reasons why he wasn't the same price as Cinders and Ashes, who he was so close to at cheltenham. The only reason why he was seen as a value price was if you ignored the last run.

Wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if Byrnes has the Country hurdle in mind for him.

County Hurdle? You hardly think Byrne's maybe holding him back, or what do you mean?

Morgans

The form that he is in now is nothing like he showed at his best last year. I think that either the County or maybe the Coral Cup is where Trifolium is more likely to end up in. He is just short of top class and isnt a Champion Hurdle contender. Most are surprised that he stayed hurdling with him.

I wouldnt write the horse off yet but I would think that the market will let you know when Byrnes has the horse back.

mountai

DEFINATELY not held back. Its a well known fact that all Gigginstown Horses run to merit. No way would Byrnes mess with this one !!!!

Morgans

There is a difference in being "held back" (I presume you mean not trying) and trying but not being fit and making sure that your horse is best in March.