Thursday 22nd November

UrbanSea

Have found the jumps tricky to pick from lately but think there is one tomorrow that's a big price in

Jolily 13.05 Thurles 16/1

A winning pointer who unsurprisingly didn't show a whole lot in three novice chases toward the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, he revealed himself to be a new proposition switched to handicaps. His first run in a handicap came in this very race last year off a mark of 97 on similarly testing going. He improved on all known form that day to finish second to the in form Miss Pepperpot, beaten two lengths. She has since proved herself to be a decent mare, winning that race off a mark of 103, before being second off 108 and last time out was placed off a mark of 116. Third horse that day who finished three lengths behind Jolily did seem to go a little backward but did win a handicap chase at Navan in March off the same mark. Looking a little further back, the form of the race looks fairly solid, given The Book Thief has since been placed and was beaten only eight lengths by Raz De Maree in a novice.

Jolily ran a brilliant race next time out again at Thurles on heavy going over three miles. Racing off the same mark ( it was only a week later) he was held up and made rapid headway to just go down to Supreme Builder by a half a length, finishing nearly 40 lengths clear of the third horse Cochise. He looked like he was sure to be the winner that day having touch 1.26 in running, but he lost nothing in defeat, and two hard races in a week on that going is enough for any horse. The form of that race is pretty weak, however. He did win next time out, again at Thurles over 3 miles on very testing going,off a mark of 107, confirming superiority over Cochise, beating him only two lengths this time, but the pair were a dozen lengths clear of the remainder. The horse clearly likes it around here, and the step back to 2 and 3 quarter miles shouldn't inconvenience him tomorrow. After his Thurles win his form figures of 9PU5 don't look too promising, but next time out at Limerick as the 9/2 fav he was found to be ''clincally abnormal post race'' and returned over a month later at Navan, but disappointed and was pulled up. I'm not quite sure what to make of that run but it wouldn't be out of the realms of possiblity that he still hadn't recovered from his Limerick excursions but that's mere speculation.

Made an uncharacteristic mistake on his seasonal return again here at Thurles at the end of October, only making it as far as the second fence before unseating Martin Burke. However, his run last time out here left me with the utmost in confidence that he retains his ability. Running off tomorrow's mark of 107, he finished 5th of 13 runners(beaten only around seven lengths) over what seems too short a trip of 2 and a quarter miles on what was only yielding to soft ground and was also hampered three out that day. Considering the ground which would have been plenty quick for him that day and the short trip, I can see him running a big race tomorrow at his favoured track over a trip that suits him, even if he is ten pounds higher than his second in the race last year. 16/1 with Boyles is a big e/w price

Ah heor, wouldn't be trusting a lad from Sligo, pure shytehawk if ya ask me. Say he'd be asking about borrowing PS3 games and all.

3ndahalfof6

It looks like a good choice, I might punt a few EW, but AMBER KNIGHT looks like conditions will suit so I will be doing a wee saver on it and RF, be lucky, either way if it works out twill be sweet.

rossom

UrbanSea wrote: »

Have found the jumps tricky to pick from lately but think there is one tomorrow that's a big price in

Jolily 13.05 Thurles 16/1

A winning pointer who unsurprisingly didn't show a whole lot in three novice chases toward the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, he revealed himself to be a new proposition switched to handicaps. His first run in a handicap came in this very race last year off a mark of 97 on similarly testing going. He improved on all known form that day to finish second to the in form Miss Pepperpot, beaten two lengths. She has since proved herself to be a decent mare, winning that race off a mark of 103, before being second off 108 and last time out was placed off a mark of 116. Third horse that day who finished three lengths behind Jolily did seem to go a little backward but did win a handicap chase at Navan in March off the same mark. Looking a little further back, the form of the race looks fairly solid, given The Book Thief has since been placed and was beaten only eight lengths by Raz De Maree in a novice.

Jolily ran a brilliant race next time out again at Thurles on heavy going over three miles. Racing off the same mark ( it was only a week later) he was held up and made rapid headway to just go down to Supreme Builder by a half a length, finishing nearly 40 lengths clear of the third horse Cochise. He looked like he was sure to be the winner that day having touch 1.26 in running, but he lost nothing in defeat, and two hard races in a week on that going is enough for any horse. The form of that race is pretty weak, however. He did win next time out, again at Thurles over 3 miles on very testing going,off a mark of 107, confirming superiority over Cochise, beating him only two lengths this time, but the pair were a dozen lengths clear of the remainder. The horse clearly likes it around here, and the step back to 2 and 3 quarter miles shouldn't inconvenience him tomorrow. After his Thurles win his form figures of 9PU5 don't look too promising, but next time out at Limerick as the 9/2 fav he was found to be ''clincally abnormal post race'' and returned over a month later at Navan, but disappointed and was pulled up. I'm not quite sure what to make of that run but it wouldn't be out of the realms of possiblity that he still hadn't recovered from his Limerick excursions but that's mere speculation.

Made an uncharacteristic mistake on his seasonal return again here at Thurles at the end of October, only making it as far as the second fence before unseating Martin Burke. However, his run last time out here left me with the utmost in confidence that he retains his ability. Running off tomorrow's mark of 107, he finished 5th of 13 runners(beaten only around seven lengths) over what seems too short a trip of 2 and a quarter miles on what was only yielding to soft ground and was also hampered three out that day. Considering the ground which would have been plenty quick for him that day and the short trip, I can see him running a big race tomorrow at his favoured track over a trip that suits him, even if he is ten pounds higher than his second in the race last year. 16/1 with Boyles is a big e/w price

Great write up Urban. Must say I like the case you've made for him quite a bit. His last run was clearly to blow away the cobwebs after unseating on his seasonal reappearance early on. Trainer Timmothy Doyle has had a winner this month (first since July) so horses should be in good nick and interesting he comes back in this race after finishing 2nd last year. 16s looks big and I think he'll run well.

I'd be worried about Saoirse Dun who foiled a huge gamble on Francis Flood's Lascalahall (who looked very well handicapped) when scoring very impressively on handicap debut over fences. Was going away at the finish and the extra 2f should definitely suit. Up 11lb in the ratings (technically 16lb higher as 5lb claimer on the last day) but that unexposed rival could prove well ahead of the handicapper still and would rate as a big danger to me. May be an idea to do a small bit on the RFC

the groutch

5:40 Kempton Saoi (12/1 Bet365, 10/1 Lads)

this is actually a horse that I've had on my tracker for months.
won first time out in Gowran for Jim Bolger in 2010, and followed it up with a close 3rd off a mark of 85 over a mile.
then found the step up to 10f and the cut in the ground too much in a similar race in Sligo before picking up and injury which ruled him out for nearly 2 years.
made a comeback in June, running off 78 over the same course and distance as tomorrows race, and stayed on ok to finish 5L back in 3rd. that turned out to be a decent race, with the winner going very close since off 11lb higher, and 3 of the horse that finished behind Saoi won next time out.
it's a bit surprising that it took a while for him to be turned out again, but off the same mark of 78 would be in with a good e/w shout.

rossom

the groutch wrote: »

5:40 Kempton Saoi (12/1 Bet365, 10/1 Lads)

this is actually a horse that I've had on my tracker for months.
won first time out in Gowran for Jim Bolger in 2010, and followed it up with a close 3rd off a mark of 85 over a mile.
then found the step up to 10f and the cut in the ground too much in a similar race in Sligo before picking up and injury which ruled him out for nearly 2 years.
made a comeback in June, running off 78 over the same course and distance as tomorrows race, and stayed on ok to finish 5L back in 3rd. that turned out to be a decent race, with the winner going very close since off 11lb higher, and 3 of the horse that finished behind Saoi won next time out.
it's a bit surprising that it took a while for him to be turned out again, but off the same mark of 78 would be in with a good e/w shout.

Another one that definitely looks in with a good chance and looks overpriced at 12s. Stall 11 and William Knight's recent form would be a concern but I'd be very surprised if he doesn't find the winners enclosure in the near future.

Motivator

I must say I'm a huge admirer of yours Rossom, I've yet to see someone who does writeups as detailed & interesting as you & you don't even get paid to do it. There isn't a racing forum on the internet with better writeups than yours. The amount of horses I've began following because of you is crazy. Maarek being my fav. I backed him the day he was beaten by a nose at 8/1 back around April & have been backing him ever since. Fair dues to you & keep it up I enjoy the reading every day.

rossom

Motivator wrote: »

I must say I'm a huge admirer of yours Rossom, I've yet to see someone who does writeups as detailed & interesting as you & you don't even get paid to do it. There isn't a racing forum on the internet with better writeups than yours. The amount of horses I've began following because of you is crazy. Maarek being my fav. I backed him the day he was beaten by a nose at 8/1 back around April & have been backing him ever since. Fair dues to you & keep it up I enjoy the reading every day.

Cheers Motivator. Very nice sentiments.

And before anyone asks (because I know its coming and I can completely understand why!) no I am not Motivator!

rossom

‎2.40 Market Rasen

Red Hot Poker 8/1 NAP

Really hope that Market Rasen is on today as I strongly fancy Nigel Twiston Davies's very lightly raced 10 year old Red Hot Poker who I think has a massive chance of landing this 21f Class 4 handicap. Formerly with Willie Mullins where he landed a couple of bumpers and a maiden hurdle in 6 starts, Red Hot Poker didn't start his career until he was 7 years old and resultantly he's only had 13 career starts to date. His last start for Willie Mullins came in August 2009 and, for one reason or another, he was off the track for nearly 3 years before making his belated comeback in May of this year in a Beginners chase. He wouldn't have been beaten too far had he finished the race but he made a lot of jumping errors when he fell two out. It was a similar story a month later on his handicap chase debut where he again made too many mistakes before falling two out when beaten and its hardly surprising that he's been returned to hurdles ever since. At the end of June, Red Hot Poker made his handicap debut over hurdles off a mark of 112 over 2m1f at Newton Abbot where he ran a fine race to finish a 2.5L beaten 2nd on his first hurdles start in nearly 3 years. The form of that race looks decent with the winner Romeo Americo winning 3 starts later off a 7lb higher mark and given that it was over a trip that was probably on the sharp side it was a nice reintroduction.

Raised 3lb for that effort, I think you have to discount Red Hot Poker's next start as he attempted to make all in a tactic that clearly backfired as he ended up being pulled up over 17f at Stratford. His best effort to date for the Twiston-Davies team undoubtedly came when upped in trip to 2m5 at Perth in testing conditions back in August when going down by a neck off todays mark of 115 in a Class 3 handicap. Held up at the rear of 9 runner field, Red Hot Poker made smooth and gradual progress through the field to get right into contention and he was still travelling very nicely coming to the final flight but he just couldn't beat his game and well handicapped rival Glingerbank, who had finished 2nd in the same race the year before and clearly looked targeted at the race. The form of that race looks strong with the winner scoring off a 5lb higher mark on his only subsequent start whilst the 3rd Hunters Belt has scored since including off a 5lb higher mark by 12L and he is now rated 22lb higher. He was raised 4lb for that effort where he again ran a fine race at Chepstow over 2m4f in August. Held up towards the rear of the 17 runner field, Red Hot Poker was travelling nicely into the home straight before a poor jump at 4 out seemed to blunt his momentum and knock him on the back foot but he still managed to stay on well under pressure to finish a decent 11L beaten 6th. Only 2 horses that finished in front of Red Hot Poker have come out again with the winner Kitigen running a fine race in a handicap Grade 3 over the same C+D finishing 6th off a 7lb higher mark (Red Hot Poker also ran in this) whilst the 4th Miss Milbourne won off a 1lb higher mark on his only subsequent start in a better race.

This 10 year old's last start came about a month ago when upped into a Grade 3 Handicap hurdle in when he finished beaten a distance but that certainly doesn't tell the whole story. Customarily held up at the back of the field, Red Hot Poker made styling progress around the outside of the field coming into the home turn but he never picked up when asked. That field was probably a little above his class and he has been dropped 4lb back to a mark of 115 after that effort. There are two reasons why I am very confident about this 10 year olds chances tomorrow which are he is being dropped to a Class 4 handicap 4 the first time in his hurdling career and a first time tongue tie is applied. The ease in grade obviously means he'll find the opposition easier but its the application of the first time tongue tie that really catches my eye. In a lot of his races, Red Hot Poker has travelled into the race very nicely before not finding as much as would have been expected which is often as associated with a wind issue and if the application of the tongue tie help get more oxygen into his lungs it could see a massive improvement. With trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies in fine form and son Sam taking the ride, I'm confident Red Hot Poker can secure his first success on British soil off a mark he's proven that he can go close off and with the drop in class and tongue tie hopefully holding the oracle, I'm confident that this lightly raced gelding can land this contest in fine style.

hucklebuck

the groutch wrote: »

5:40 Kempton Saoi (12/1 Bet365, 10/1 Lads)

Thanks groutch, had a small interest.

This race qualifies for the channel 4 offer on bet365 so when he wins (once bigger than 4/1) you get a free bet to the same amount on the next live race.

BlueBaron

rossom wrote: »

‎2.40 Market Rasen

Red Hot Poker 8/1 NAP

Really hope that Market Rasen is on today as I strongly fancy Nigel Twiston Davies's very lightly raced 10 year old Red Hot Poker who I think has a massive chance of landing this 21f Class 4 handicap. Formerly with Willie Mullins where he landed a couple of bumpers and a maiden hurdle in 6 starts, Red Hot Poker didn't start his career until he was 7 years old and resultantly he's only had 13 career starts to date. His last start for Willie Mullins came in August 2009 and, for one reason or another, he was off the track for nearly 3 years before making his belated comeback in May of this year in a Beginners chase. He wouldn't have been beaten too far had he finished the race but he made a lot of jumping errors when he fell two out. It was a similar story a month later on his handicap chase debut where he again made too many mistakes before falling two out when beaten and its hardly surprising that he's been returned to hurdles ever since. At the end of June, Red Hot Poker made his handicap debut over hurdles off a mark of 112 over 2m1f at Newton Abbot where he ran a fine race to finish a 2.5L beaten 2nd on his first hurdles start in nearly 3 years. The form of that race looks decent with the winner Romeo Americo winning 3 starts later off a 7lb higher mark and given that it was over a trip that was probably on the sharp side it was a nice reintroduction.

Raised 3lb for that effort, I think you have to discount Red Hot Poker's next start as he attempted to make all in a tactic that clearly backfired as he ended up being pulled up over 17f at Stratford. His best effort to date for the Twiston-Davies team undoubtedly came when upped in trip to 2m5 at Perth in testing conditions back in August when going down by a neck off todays mark of 115 in a Class 3 handicap. Held up at the rear of 9 runner field, Red Hot Poker made smooth and gradual progress through the field to get right into contention and he was still travelling very nicely coming to the final flight but he just couldn't beat his game and well handicapped rival Glingerbank, who had finished 2nd in the same race the year before and clearly looked targeted at the race. The form of that race looks strong with the winner scoring off a 5lb higher mark on his only subsequent start whilst the 3rd Hunters Belt has scored since including off a 5lb higher mark by 12L and he is now rated 22lb higher. He was raised 4lb for that effort where he again ran a fine race at Chepstow over 2m4f in August. Held up towards the rear of the 17 runner field, Red Hot Poker was travelling nicely into the home straight before a poor jump at 4 out seemed to blunt his momentum and knock him on the back foot but he still managed to stay on well under pressure to finish a decent 11L beaten 6th. Only 2 horses that finished in front of Red Hot Poker have come out again with the winner Kitigen running a fine race in a handicap Grade 3 over the same C+D finishing 6th off a 7lb higher mark (Red Hot Poker also ran in this) whilst the 4th Miss Milbourne won off a 1lb higher mark on his only subsequent start in a better race.

This 10 year old's last start came about a month ago when upped into a Grade 3 Handicap hurdle in when he finished beaten a distance but that certainly doesn't tell the whole story. Customarily held up at the back of the field, Red Hot Poker made styling progress around the outside of the field coming into the home turn but he never picked up when asked. That field was probably a little above his class and he has been dropped 4lb back to a mark of 115 after that effort. There are two reasons why I am very confident about this 10 year olds chances tomorrow which are he is being dropped to a Class 4 handicap 4 the first time in his hurdling career and a first time tongue tie is applied. The ease in grade obviously means he'll find the opposition easier but its the application of the first time tongue tie that really catches my eye. In a lot of his races, Red Hot Poker has travelled into the race very nicely before not finding as much as would have been expected which is often as associated with a wind issue and if the application of the tongue tie help get more oxygen into his lungs it could see a massive improvement. With trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies in fine form and son Sam taking the ride, I'm confident Red Hot Poker can secure his first success on British soil off a mark he's proven that he can go close off and with the drop in class and tongue tie hopefully holding the oracle, I'm confident that this lightly raced gelding can land this contest in fine style.

Cheers Rossom, always look forward to your write-ups, you put a lot of effort into them so fair play to ya. Followed you again on this one, nice little stake 13/2, fingers crossed man.

BlueBaron

Into 4's from 8's, hopefully the money is right!

Slattsy

Rossom - are you Motivator ? :pac:

Also, Thurles is off.

UrbanSea

Rossom banned for being Motivator

:pac:

Pity about Thurles being off. Will keep an eye out for him next time

Motivator

No I'm not Rossom & he isn't me . I used to post on this forum about a year ago but shut down the account & set a new on up the other day. Big money in for Red Hot Poker, only got 9/2 this morning.

rossom

Red Hot Poker was making seemless headway but then that horrendous mistake killed him

BlueBaron

didnt see the race, was he looking a winner at all?

Slattsy

BlueBaron wrote: »

didnt see the race, was he looking a winner at all?

Nah.

Luap

Looked to be going fine, the in-play market suggested that, might of won.

aidan24326

BlueBaron wrote: »

didnt see the race, was he looking a winner at all?

Held up out the back, but going ok. Started to make smooth looking headway down the back straight and was creeping into it nicely until he slammed through the 3rd last (I think, might have been 4 out) with a lazy looking jump and was well beaten thereafter. Clearly some jumping issues with this one. Hard to know if he'd have gone close without that mistake but he was travelling nicely at the time and basically blew whatever chance he had with a very sloppy jump.

rossom

BlueBaron wrote: »

didnt see the race, was he looking a winner at all?

The race was just hotting up so whether or not he was going to win is a mystery. Certainly seemed as if he was getting to into contention quite nicely and I think he would have gone pretty close.