Third Annual Winter Forecast Contest -- enter by 1st December

M.T. Cranium

WELCOME to the Third Annual Winter Forecast Contest. The rules will be similar to last year, and the prize also the same (20 euros to the winner).

The deadline is a bit later, and will give you a chance to peer into the first week of December with some idea what's going on as the season starts. In weather circles, winter is December, January and February, and that will be the basis of our contest. Read the rules carefully and feel free to enter any time before the deadline ...

Entries accepted until 0300h Sunday 2 December as "on time" and from that point on, will be penalized 10 points per day which means that entries after 11 December will not be scored and in practical terms, entries after 4 Dec will likely not score.

The top scores last year were close to 75/100 to give you some idea of what the standard is. Here are the rules, look at the end of this post for a template that you can use to enter. I will make an effort to review all entries and contact anyone who has an incomplete entry. It's up to you to be familiar with the rules in each question.

(1) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the "IMT" which is the Irish Mean Temperature, a statistic developed on this forum by Deep Easterly, and the average of five stations in central inland locations (Shannon, Oak Park, Mullingar, Casement, Claremorris). For newbies, this is the average of highs and lows. Over recent 30-year periods, the means have been around 5.6 in Dec, 5.3 in Jan and 5.2 in Feb. Very mild months would run around 8-9 C and very cold ones a little below freezing (Dec 2010 was -0.4). These forecasts generate 5 points each, and the seasonal average, which you don't need to calculate (I do that from your entries) counts for 15 points.

(2) For each month Dec Jan Feb, predict the monthly precipitation as a percentage of normal values. This is calculated as in our monthly forecast contest, from records taken at eleven stations that report in the Met Eireann Monthly Summary. Those are the five mentioned above plus Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Belmullet, Ballyhaise and Belmullet. Note that Dublin is not included. Values under 50% are considered exceptionally dry and above 200% exceptionally wet (for your guidance). The scoring for these three forecasts and the seasonal average which again you don't need to enter, will also be 5,5,5 and 15 points.

(3) For all the reporting stations of Met Eireann, as reported in their Monthly Summary, predict the seasonal highest and lowest temperatures. This will apply only to dates from 1 Dec to 28 Feb for the max, but can apply to dates both before and after the winter for the min (up to 15 April when the contest results are declared). The max in the past two winters has been close to 15 and the min two winters back was about -16 but more like -6 last winter. I would guess the long-term average for this winter minimum is around -8 to perhaps -10. These two predictions are worth ten points each.

(4) Predict the seasonal snowfall (in cms) at Casement. This will run from the first measurable snowfall (which has not happened yet) to 15 April (anything after that won't count). These daily snowfall values (if they occur) are measured at hourly intervals and summed, which means the snow depth at any point might not be quite as much as the snowfall amount. However, amounts vary a lot from season to season. In the first contest winter, there was about 50 or 60 cms but we used a stat from Boards member "Danno" in Laois who had about 30 cms. Last winter, I believe there was almost zero accumulation and our lowest contest guess had the highest score. This part is worth ten points.

(5) Finally, predict the highest wind gust in knots at any reporting station in Ireland as per the Met Eireann Monthly Summary, but note that in this case, the period is only the three winter months -- strong winds in November or March or early April won't count, the gust has to be between 1 Dec and 28 Feb. Knots are almost double km/hr and about 1.15 times mph. Values between 70 and 100 knots are most likely to verify from climatology, the extreme range would be about 50 to 120 for this statistic. This part is also worth ten points.

Note: All scores are based on rank order, not absolute differences from prediction to actual values. This equalizes the various sections of the contest and distributes the scores evenly. Once we establish the number of entries, I will update this scoring system, but basically, 10% of the entries get top scores in each category and then on down, with any odd numbers left over getting the zero scores. Where it's 10 points, the gradations are 10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1,0 and where 5 points, half of those values, where 15 we will give equal numbers of scores, and let you know later how many will share each score (based on number of entries).

Okay then, here's the template, once you understand what to predict, just change all the letters here to number values and block copy, submit along with your comments etc. We're open for entries although you'd be smart to wait until near the end of November (but don't forget, those penalties are going to bite).

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT
JAN-IMT
FEB-IMT

DEC-PRC
JAN-PRC
FEB-PRC

MAX

MIN

SNOW

GUST

(all temps can have one decimal place, prc % to nearest whole number, snow can also have one decimal place, gust to nearest whole number)

Just for the fun of it, I will go first because that will show you what to avoid and also give you a better template than the above, use this if you want and change the numbers to suit your version of reality.


5.5
5.3
2.8

90
110
70

15.4
-12.0

28.5 cms

84 knots

Good luck and check back, also, if you are new to our contests, check out the December monthly contest when it's announced in the last few days of this month. We do those every month.

Rebelbrowser

Why not?


2.3
5.7
3.9

77
129
92

15.4
-10.9

15.8 cms

81 knots

pauldry

4.3
6.3
6.1

89
97
88

15.1
-9.1

3.8 cms

69 knots

derekon

Hey MT,

I see your predictions above are roughly in line with your thoughts that this coming February 2013 will be a cold one with you predicting an average temperature for that month of just 2.8oC............nearly 3oC colder than December!!

Good to see you are predicting nearly 30cm of snow in Casement.............so we should see snow in Dublin this year !

D

steveLFC24

Might as well give it a go

4.9
4.1
3.1


78
105
83

14.6

-13.8

39cm

72kts

I like the cold

M.T. Cranium

Bumping this to the top to remind readers that now's the time to think about your entry, deadline is Saturday (penalties apply after that).

Harps

4.9
4.6
5.9

90
80
130

14.9

-9.1

4cm

83 kts

NIALL D

4.0
4.5
5.1

87
85
122

14.1

-14.3

23cm

78 kts

Bsal

5.4
5.2
5.2

95
145
122

15.1

-8.4

14cm

71kts

Max Power

4.8
5.3
5.1

95
97
81

14.5
-8.2

10cms

88 knots

catch.23

2.8
3.9
6.0

60
80
120

14.5

-8.0

20

80

H2UMrsRobinson

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT 4.5
JAN-IMT 3.5
FEB-IMT 5.5

DEC-PRC 80%
JAN-PRC 90%
FEB-PRC 95%

MAX 12.6

MIN -7.9

SNOW - 15cm

GUST - 74knts

delw

4.5
4.7
5.6

85%
92%
95%

10.5

-9.8

12 cm

68 knt

Deep Easterly

DEC-IMT: 5.3
JAN-IMT: 4.2
FEB-IMT: 0.8c

DEC-PRC: 85%
JAN-PRC: 160%
FEB-PRC: 45%

MAX 15.7c

MIN -9.1c

SNOW: 3cm

GUST: 120 kts (hopecast)

ninebeanrows

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

DEC-IMT 2.7
JAN-IMT 4.4
FEB-IMT 6.2

DEC-PRC 77%
JAN-PRC 104%
FEB-PRC 112%

MAX 14.0

MIN -16.5

SNOW - 24cm

GUST - 81knts

talkabout

5.3
4.7
4.8

95
90
100

14.1
-9.7

10 cms

70 knots

karl tyrrell

dec-imt-6.1
jan-imt-5.9
feb-imt-6.4

dec-prc-86
jan-prc-91
feb-prc-117

max-14.2
min -22

snow-49.5 cm

gusts-96 knots

Joe Public

2.9
1.9
3.9

79
69
89

14.9
-12.9

39 cms

79 knots

encryptix

5.3
4.2
5.1

105
75
80

14.5

-9.2

25cm

90kts

ironkiwi

DEC-IMT 3.5
JAN-IMT 4.1
FEB-IMT 5.7

DEC-PRC 84%
JAN-PRC 106%
FEB-PRC 142%

MAX 12.0

MIN -8.5

SNOW - 18cm

GUST - 75knts

snowstreams

4.3
3.3
5.4

90
70
100

14.1
-9

20 cms

78 knots

Redsunset

3.5
0.5
2.0
68
71
75
15
-19.0
78cm
79kt

Rikand

TEMPLATE FOR ENTRIES

5.0
5.0
5.0

90
100
110

16.0

-9.0

21.0

91

eskimocat

7.8
5.5
3.6

73%
80%
76%

14.0

-11

17cm

68Knts

Come'on snowww

hytrogen

DEC-IMT 4.7
JAN-IMT 3.2
FEB-IMT 2.7

DEC-PRC 89% precipitation as a percentage of normal values
JAN-PRC 113%
FEB-PRC 114%

MAX 16.2c
temperatures
MIN -12.1

SNOW 17cm

GUST 86kts

here's to hopefully being wrong & being able to get around the place pretty safely since it's my first time spending Christmas at home in 3 years.. (thermals have been ordered in!)
thanks for the challenge

force eleven

DEC-IMT 5.2
JAN-IMT 2.9
FEB-IMT 4.5

DEC-PRC 110
JAN-PRC 80
FEB-PRC 120

MAX 13.4

MIN -6.7

SNOW - 5cm

GUST - 67kts

Strasser

4.3
6.1
6.4

100
100
100

13.4
-7.5

10.0 cms

64 knots

Elmer Blooker

2.1
3.7
5.9

58
90
150

14.8
-12.1

12cm

78kts

flying11

DEC-IMT 3.9
JAN-IMT 3.4
FEB-IMT 6.2

DEC-PRC 78
JAN-PRC 93
FEB-PRC 113

MAX 14.5

MIN -10.3

SNOW - 23cm

GUST - 76kts

traecy1

IMT: 5.3....4.8....5.7
PRC: 90....85....110
MAX: 15.1
MIN: -7.7
SNOW: 7cms
GUST: 65 Kts

ninebeanrows

May need to make drastic changes to my prediction! Outlook deteriorating fast for cold in December.

sunflower3

DEC-IMT 3.1
JAN-IMT 4.2
FEB-IMT 3.8

DEC-PRC 90%
JAN-PRC 110%
FEB-PRC 85%

MAX 14.5

MIN -7.2

SNOW - 10 cm

GUST - 65 knts

Mmcd

5.4
4.9
2.9

90
95
65

15.7
-14.2

21.5 cms

77 knots

cdev

DEC-IMT 3.9
JAN-IMT 4.1
FEB-IMT 5.1

DEC-PRC 86%
JAN-PRC 101%
FEB-PRC 114%

MAX 12.6

MIN -13.9

SNOW - 26cm

GUST - 87knts

homolumo

5.1
4.5
4.0

95
109
120

13.6

-7.1

11cm

73 kts

dasa29

DEC-IMT 4.5
JAN-IMT 4.0
FEB-IMT 4.5

DEC-PRC 95%
JAN-PRC 105%
FEB-PRC 110%

MAX 10.0

MIN -14.0

SNOW - 45cm

GUST - 80knts

rameire

5.4
4.6
4.8

89%
120%
85%

13.2

-6.6

3cm

64

John mac

5.8
4.8
3.9

97
106
90

12.7
-8.9

8.6 cms

76 knots

JFKIRELAND

4.9
4.7
2.5

85
99
65

14.1
-10.3

12.1 cms

69 knots

Sponge Bob

5.2
4.9
5.2

90
90
90

14.7
-7.9

6cm

79kt

MiNdGaM3

3.8
2.2
5.1

90
80
125

15.6

-11.9

40 cm

69 knots

waterways

4.8
4.8
4.0

90
100
110

15

-9

8

72

nilhg

5.5
5.1
5.0

90
115
105

14.2

-5.3

4CM

71kts

DOCARCH

5.2
4.8
4.2

94
105
85

16.2
-8.6

22.8 cms

79 knots

Wolfe_IRE

3.9
4.4
5.9

95
105
110

14.9
-8.5

20cm

59 knots

lostinashford

4.2
4.3
6.2

95
90
105

13.8
-5.3

9cm

68kt

okla

Apologies for the late entry.

4.2
4.9
3.1

90
108
80

14.8
-11.2

20

75kts

BLIZZARD7

DEC-IMT 2.3C
JAN-IMT 0.4C
FEB-IMT 2.4C

DEC-PRC 86%
JAN-PRC 90%
FEB-PRC 105%

MAX 14.2C

MIN -17.5C

SNOW - 83CM

GUST - 70





Dan

Danno

DEC-IMT 5.2c
JAN-IMT 2.7c
FEB-IMT 3.2c

DEC-PRC 85%
JAN-PRC 65%
FEB-PRC 75%

MAX 13.8c

MIN -11.2c

SNOW 40cm

GUST 94kt

M.T. Cranium

Thank you all for entering, as per the rules, Sunday's entries will be penalized but I will make the same guarantee as last year -- the penalties will count towards the scores but not towards your chance of winning the 20 euros (this guarantee ends at 0300h Tuesday for 10 and 20 point penalties). Another guarantee is that my score does not count, so you've got one guy beaten already!!

Here's how it works -- contest winner per the rules wins 20 euros, highest penalized player who otherwise beats that score also wins 20 euros. I didn't have to pay out on that last year, "traecy1" won either way.

I will have some tables of entries up soon for comparison. Your seasonal IMT and PRC values will be generated from your monthly forecasts.

Good luck everyone, starting at 0301h you're looking at 20 penalty points but as stated above, you're still in with a chance of winning something.

There is no absolute deadline, just very little point in entering after 0300h Tuesday unless you want to experience the excitement.

M.T. Cranium

All the forecasts -- order by seasonal mean temperature (high to low)

FORECASTER ........ IMT (DJF)/(mn) ..... PRC (DJF)/(mn) ..... MAX/MIN .... SNOW ..... GUST
_____________________________________________________________

karl tyrrell .........6.1..5.9..6.4...6.1...086..091..117...098....14.2..-22.0.....49.5....96
pauldry ........... 4.3..6.3..6.1...5.6....089..097..088...091....15.1...-9.1.....3.8....69
eskimocat ....... 7.8..5.5..3.6...5.6....073..080..076...076....14.0..-11.0.....17.0....68
Strasser ......... 4.3..6.1..6.4...5.6...100..100..100...100....13.4...-7.5.....10.0....64
Bsal ............... 5.4..5.2..5.2...5.3....095..145..122....121...15.1...-8.4.....14.0....71
traecy1 .......... 5.3..4.8..5.7...5.3....090..085..110...095....15.1...-7.7.....7.0....65
nilhg .............. 5.5..5.1..5.0...5.2...090..115..105...103....14.2...-5.3......4.0....71
Sponge Bob .... 5.2..4.9..5.2...5.1....090..090..090...090....14.7...-7.9......6.0....79
Harps ............ 4.9..4.6..5.9...5.1....090..080..130...100....14.9...-9.1......4.0....83
FionnMcCool87.. 4.8..5.3..5.1..5.1...095..097..081...091....14.5...-8.2......10.0....88
Rickylovesuall ... 5.0..5.0..5.0...5.0...090..100..110...100...16.0...-9.0......21.0....91
lostinashford*.. 4.2..4.3..6.2...4.9....095..090..105...097....13.8...-5.3......9.0....68
rameire .......... 5.4..4.6..4.8...4.9....089..120..085...098....13.2...-6.6......3.0....64
delw .............. 4.5..4.7..5.6...4.9...085..092..095...091....10.5...-9.8......12.0....68
talkabout ....... 5.3..4.7..4.8...4.9...095..090..100...095....14.1...-9.7......10.0....70
encryptix ........ 5.3..4.2..5.1...4.9...105..075..080...087....14.5...-9.2......25.0....90
John mac ....... 5.8..4.8..3.9...4.8....097..106..090...098....12.7...-8.9.......8.6....76
Wolfe_IRE ...... 3.9..4.4..5.9...4.7....095..105..110...103....14.9...-8.5......20.0....59
DOCARCH ....... 5.2..4.8..4.2...4.7...094..105..085...095....16.2...-8.6......22.8....79
waterways ..... 4.8..4.8..4.0...4.5....090..100..110...100....15.0...-9.0......8.0....72
NIALL D .......... 4.0..4.5..5.1...4.5....087..085..122...098....14.1..-14.3.....23.0....78
H2UMrsRobinson 4.5..3.5..5.5..4.5...080..090..095...088....12.6...-7.9.....15.0....74
flying11........... 3.9..3.4..6.2...4.5....078..093..113...095....14.5..-10.3.....23.0....76

Con Sensus ..... 4.7..4.5..5.0...4.5....090..095..100...097...14.5...-9.7.....17.0....76

homolumo ....... 5.1..4.5..4.0...4.5...095..109..120...108....13.6...-7.1.....11.0....73
M.T. Cranium ...5.5..5.3..2.8....4.4...090..110..070...090...15.4..-12.0.....28.5....84
Weathercheck.. 2.7..4.4..6.2...4.4...077..104..112...098....14.0..-16.5.....24.0....81
ironkiwi .......... 3.5..4.1..5.7...4.4...084..106..142...111....12.0...-8.5.....18.0....75
Mmcd ............ 5.4..4.9..2.9...4.4...090..095..065...083....15.7..-14.2.....21.5....77
cdev ............. 3.9..4.1..5.1...4.4...086..101..114...100....12.6..-13.9.....26.0....87
dasa29 .......... 4.5..4.0..4.5...4.3....095..105..110...103....10.0..-14.0....45.0....80
snowstreams ... 4.3..3.3..5.4...4.3...090..070..100...087....14.1...-9.0.....20.0....78
catch.23 ........ 2.8..3.9..6.0...4.2....060..080..120...087....14.5...-8.0.....20.0....80
force eleven .... 5.2..2.9..4.5...4.2...110..080..120...103....13.4...-6.7......5.0....67
okla*.............. 4.2..4.9..3.1..4.1....090..108..080...093....14.8..-11.2.....20.0....75
JFKIRELAND .... 4.9..4.7..2.5...4.0....085..099..065...083....14.1..-10.3.....12.1....69
steveLFC24 .... 4.9..4.1..3.1...4.0....078..105..083...089....14.6..-13.8.....39.0....72
Rebelbrowser ... 2.3..5.7..3.9...4.0....077..129..092...099....15.4..-10.9.....15.8....81
Elmer Blooker ... 2.1..3.7..5.9...3.9...058..090..150...099....14.8..-12.1.....12.0....78
Danno* .......... 5.2..2.7..3.2..3.8....085..065..075...075....13.8..-11.2.....40.0....94
MiNdGaM3 ...... 3.8..2.2..5.1...3.7....090..080..125...098....15.6..-11.9.....40.0....69
sunflower3 ..... 3.1..4.2..3.8...3.7....090..110..085...095....14.5...-7.2.....10.0....65
hytrogen ....... 4.7..3.2..2.7...3.5....089..113..114...105....16.2..-12.1.....17.0....86
Deep Easterly.. 5.3..4.2..0.8...3.4...085..160..045...097....15.7...-9.1......3.0...120
Joe Public ...... 2.9..1.9..3.9...2.9....079..069..089...079....14.9..-12.9.....39.0....79
Redsunset ..... 3.5..0.5..2.0...2.0....068..071..075...071....15.0..-19.0.....78.0....79
BLIZZARD7*.... 2.3..0.4..2.4...1.7....086..090..105...094....14.2..-17.5.....83.0....70

___________________________________________

Notes:

* one day late, 10 pt penalty

Con Sensus values are medians, they don't quite give an average for seasonal values as a result, but your seasonal values are averages (rounded off) of your three monthly forecasts. Check for accuracy. Table will be edited or reposted for later entries.