WSJ-Airlines Face Acute Shortage of Pilots.

durandal01

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203937004578079391643223634.html?mod=WSJ__MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsFifth
A bit US-centric but may be of interest to some.

Pilotdude5

I don't think there has been a pilot shortage since the summer of 1940 in southern England.

Cessna_Pilot

Nothing a little bit of Waterford marketing couldn't sort out...

Milan Cobian

I don't think there has been a pilot shortage since the summer of 1940 in southern England.

And even then the pay and lifestyle weren't great...

Bessarion

Pilotdude5 wrote: »

I don't think there has been a pilot shortage since the summer of 1940 in southern England.

The Luftwaffe did lose the flower of their youth in those dark days of Aug/Sep 1940.

bluecode

Actually I think there may well be a pilot shortage in the USA. What they've succeeded in doing is making the job extremely unattractive for any aspiring pilot in the US. Pay in the regionals is desperate. Plus the downward pressure on pay and conditions in the majors makes it less attractive than it ever was.
But I don't think the 1500 hour rule will have as big an impact as they imagine though. In practical terms until recently it was the norm in the US to expect pilots to have the ATP before they got an airline job. In truth it doesn't take long to get to 1500 hours as an Instructor/jump pilot/banner towing pilot etc.

But don't imagine this will open the market for foreigners getting a green card to fly in the USA. Maybe at Captain level.

Basically airlines in the US will have to make the job more attactive again.

basill

Repeat after me....There has never been nor will there ever be a shortage of low hour unskilled pilots straight from flight school.

On the other hand there are shortages of skilled experienced training captains which are holding back the expansion of certain carriers across the globe.

The difficulty the regional airlines in the US face in getting skilled operators is due to the crap money on offer and poor T&Cs. Unfortunately this will only be rectified once a number of them go to the wall and their business is consolidated into a larger carrier who will benefit from economies of scale.

saspeir

From people that I've met that are training to be pilots I have to say that a good lot of them I would have worries about letting fly me or my family around.

When you hear stats of 100,000 pilots needed over the next 5 years (which is what is predicted for Europe alone actually) you will actually need a multiple of that amount of people to seriously consider it as a career. Fact is: a lot of gobshoons take up training and they either have a lack of aptitude or a lack of flying skill. These have to be weeded out. It would be similar with any profession.

One big issue for the industry is when are these people weeded out. Is it fair to expect somebody to invest €100K only to be told you're not good enough? The schools won't tell you that because they depend on you for income. The airlines will because they have paying customers that will walk and a regulatory authority that will shut them down if unsafe.

I think IALPA could play a role here. Why not (1) encourage cadetships and (2) get funding from Aer Lingus, Ryanair etc. in the guise of corporate responsibility to create some system that would screen people independently and advise them (be it matters of aptitude, health or age) of their realistic chances with airlines - we see the questions people have here regularly. Something akin to GAPAN I suppose. I have questions I'd like to ask. I don't know any commercial pilots and the only people I can talk to are the schools - not very independent are they? Few career guidance counsellors or training agencies know what you need to get in on the game and even if they do it's the basics.

A319er

I work in aviation, I follow the news and read various forums, I cannot estiamte how many qualified unemployed pilots are out there but it hundreds for sure not to mention all the other folks part completed training or in flight schools, I cannot believe there is any shortage, even in US hundreds of pilots are on furlough...whatever that is , with the majors , every now and then someone gets a respected journal to generate interest in people enrolling in costly courses , just to keep their flight schools in business ....

WSJ should know better but they qte all the flying schools and all the universities ....

Lustrum

saspeir wrote: »

...Fact is: a lot of gobshoons take up training and they either have a lack of aptitude or a lack of flying skill. These have to be weeded out. ....

I'm not sure how much you know about pilot training, but a lack of aptitude and flying skill will weed you out itself. 14 ATPL exams with a pass mark of 75%, and single engine NDB approaches into Waterford are tricky business. If you can't do them, you can't get the licence, no matter how many times you pay your €100,000. Now that's not to say that there aren't plenty of gobshoons (great word btw) who do make it through, but in my experience the majority are excellent pilots with more than half a head.

As for the airlines, AL "weeded out" the weak during the cadetship last year but making people jump through hoops, and the last round was an interview with a psychologist who would ultimately deem if you had what it takes. So the 20 cadets they picked should have been the cream of the crop. Rumour has it a couple of them are failing exams, behind on the flying, and definintely won't be ready to go online by next summer.

It seems there's no perfect way to pick good pilots. If the majority of those who you do know are morons, maybe you need to meet new people! The ones who do make it are the ones who are willing to work for it, and have gotten you onto the ground safely at the end of every flight you've ever taken

bluecode

I do believe that there will be a pilot shortage in the US but only the US. You cannot cross reference it to the situation in Europe or even Asia. The training system is different in the US. It is more accessible to the average person and more affordable. There was also a reasonably clear career path to follow. Start off as an Instructor or banner towing, jump flying, air taxi etc etc. There are considerably more general aviation jobs in the US. in fact it was and even now probably still is easy enough to get a job like that.

Then move on to a regional or corporate flying and finally a job with a 'major'. Which was well paid with a good pension etc. You were paid peanuts until you got into the big airline. It was accepted.

Now we have downward pressure on pay and condition in the big airlines. One thing that is important to Americans in general is pay and a career path. That is no longer the case. Airline flying is no longer seen as well paid and secure. In general once you joined an airline you stayed with it because of the senority system. If a Captain changed airlines he would be back in the right seat and at the bottom of the pay scale again. That's why the article mentions pilots going overseas where the pay and experience is appreciated particularly for pilots near the end of their career wanting to build up their pension pot.

But this does not translate into a pilot shortage on this side of the pond. The system is different. GA jobs are thin on the ground so there is little career progression from that source. So we have thousands of sub 300 hour pilots trying to get into the airlines directly. Now interestingly if EASA was to introduce a similar 1500 hour rule here. It would cause a pilot shortage. The lack of GA jobs would mean few could reach it in a reasonable time. But that's not going to happen. Although interestingly the British before JAR, actually required 700 hours before you could even get a CPL.

So no low time pilot shortage here. But potentially in America.

saspeir

Lustrum wrote: »

I'm not sure how much you know about pilot training, but a lack of aptitude and flying skill will weed you out itself. 14 ATPL exams with a pass mark of 75%, and single engine NDB approaches into Waterford are tricky business. If you can't do them, you can't get the licence, no matter how many times you pay your €100,000. Now that's not to say that there aren't plenty of gobshoons (great word btw) who do make it through, but in my experience the majority are excellent pilots with more than half a head.

I'm not saying that everyone is a gobshoon nor that I'm expert - far from it. Just that I've come across a fair few. The worst example of which - a guy that closed an airport after becoming lost in cloud and subsequently gained a CPL. He also struggled to land in a xwind. I have other examples all come across in the last couple years.

As for the airlines, AL "weeded out" the weak during the cadetship last year but making people jump through hoops, and the last round was an interview with a psychologist who would ultimately deem if you had what it takes. So the 20 cadets they picked should have been the cream of the crop. Rumour has it a couple of them are failing exams, behind on the flying, and definintely won't be ready to go online by next summer.

I'd well believe that rumour. 6 months to do 14 tough exams is pushing it. You'd really want to have prior study of ATPLs going into an integrated course.

It seems there's no perfect way to pick good pilots. If the majority of those who you do know are morons, maybe you need to meet new people! The ones who do make it are the ones who are willing to work for it, and have gotten you onto the ground safely at the end of every flight you've ever taken

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying all are morons. Just that to get 100,000 pilots you'll need more than 100,000 to get that. Not everyone will be ideal. But at the same time it's not ideal for 'morons' to splash €100K to find that out is all.