Thursday 8 November

rossom

1.40 Lingfield

Cativo Cavallino 16/1

Not the most obvious horse on paper and not one I'd generally go for but something keeps drawing me back to John Long's 9 year old who I think could definitely outrun his odds. Now entering his veteran stage, this 7 times course winner (twice C+D) is a real credit to his trainer and although not at his best of late I think he's fallen to a very attractive mark of 56 and after his reappearance run from a 102 day break I think he could be spot for this. Although not at his best this year, Cativo Cavallino started 2012 rated 12lb higher and he did put in a good effort when a half length beaten 2nd off an 8lb higher mark in a weak race in February and another ok effort off the same mark of 64 in March. Resultantly, this gelding has plummeted in the ratings to his lowest mark since 2007 of 56. There is another interesting thing to note with regards to Cativo Cavallino which is (barring his last run after a 102 day break) today's jockey Natalia Gemelova was not on board for his other 8 starts this year. Although I'm not the biggest fan of hers, its unquestionable that Gemelova gets on exceedingly well with this 9 year old as she has been on board for all 10 of his career victories so its definitely a positive that she takes the ride today, especially as John Long is a massive advocate of hers. In addition to his lowly mark, I thought Cativo Cavallino ran a decent enough race when finishing a 5L beaten 9th last month and it certainly looked as if he would improve for the run. Moreover, if not including his recent return from a short break, this will be his first time in a Class 6 handicap since landing his sole turf start (last win) last October and first time in this grade on the AW since 2010. I've had a look through this race and I really don't see too much pace and from his draw in stall 4 I hope Gemelova breaks him out and grabs (hopefully) and easy and uncontested lead whereby she can set the fractions she wants to up front. Nevertheless, she shouldn't have too much issue getting him prominent as most of the other 11 runners like to sit midfield or off the pace. Clearly on a good mark, if the recent break and return to action last month have freshened him up, I'm hopeful of a big run from Cativo Cavallino and although I can't say I'm bubbling with confidence I think the only C+D winner in the field is worth a dabble at the price.

squirrelohara

Do you ever get these big price horses to come in. Iv watched a few (not backed) and they have been very poor. Not telling you to stop doing this but i was just wondering.

stdidit

squirrelohara wrote: »

Do you ever get these big price horses to come in. Iv watched a few (not backed) and they have been very poor. Not telling you to stop doing this but i was just wondering.

I can assure you he has had winners and at big prices too, as high as 33/1 from what I can remember off hand.

Don't back most of them myself but I do recall having a nice few pound on Snap Tie in Punchestown when he tipped him and he won nicely at 16/1.

Win or lose though, doesn't matter to me, I just enjoy reading his top notch analysis

squirrelohara

Yes i agree the analysis is top class. I would probably follow if the prices would suggest the horse had a decent chance. 8/1 or lower maybe

UrbanSea

Prices can be misleading. People often wonder how a big priced horse wins but can see why if they look back on the past form, not just last couple of runs.

Like the look of him rossom threw my 25 free bet on at 14/1's here's hoping.

saiint

UrbanSea wrote: »

Prices can be misleading. People often wonder how a big priced horse wins but can see why if they look back on the past form, not just last couple of runs.

Like the look of him rossom threw my 25 free bet on at 14/1's here's hoping.

not only past form
have to take into consideration the ground, the distance, the jockey, and compare that to every other horse sadly not everyone does this
i know about 20 lads who would put their wages on a favourite when id be telling them another horse has better chance at bigger the price
surprized they dont beat me to a pulp when im right :pac:

i like this horse as well rossom but wouldnt be going on heavy meself
gonna throw a few quid on it though to win
gl!

dave3004

George Baker just had a 2 yr old winner on the previous race over a mile. Has a 3yr old over a mile here and Kirsty booked whos got a good 14% S/R at the track.

Off 9'1 with more progression than most here since still being 3 years old I'd have a small e/w squeek on Percythepinto at 14/1

Mocha Joe

squirrelohara wrote: »

Yes i agree the analysis is top class. I would probably follow if the prices would suggest the horse had a decent chance. 8/1 or lower maybe

That's ridiculous.

Mocha Joe

Got the place. Decent run.

mountai

Thanks Rossum ---- I"ll take 16s EW any day of the week.

rossom

Breaking slowly certainly didn't help as he ran very freely and I'm very sure that was Plan B. Winner was never getting caught though. Still a much more encouraging effort and I'd consider backing him NTO if a worthwhile price. 20p Rule 4 is rotten

rossom

squirrelohara wrote: »

Yes i agree the analysis is top class. I would probably follow if the prices would suggest the horse had a decent chance. 8/1 or lower maybe

This isn't a stab at you but if you are only concerned about horses at the head of the market then you are not looking at the race properly.

Overthelast

Nice tipping Sir! Didn't back it but always enjoy the read & analysis/opinion.

squirrelohara

rossom wrote: »

This isn't a stab at you but if you are only concerned about horses at the head of the market then you are not looking at the race properly.

The market is set by the punters though. If a 33/1 hasnt had any money on him all day it really shows what chance he has. But then he could hack up which shows horse racing is just ridiculous to bet on

rossom

squirrelohara wrote: »

The market is set by the punters though. If a 33/1 hasnt had any money on him all day it really shows what chance he has. But then he could hack up which shows horse racing is just ridiculous to bet on

That isn't really true. Bookmakers set their book by what price they think reflects the horses chances. Punters clearly greatly influence the market after that. 95% of punters don't do enough analysis on a race and as a result these 33/1 shots with no money slip through the net. Seems like your a cynic so no point in trying to convince you anymore.

If you find horse racing so ridiculous to bet on, why are you on the horse racing forum?

squirrelohara

Jese sorry to offend anyone. My basic point is that its very difficult to get a high price winner. I bet on horse racing all the time but not outside my means. I had a nice 12/1 winner at the weekend. Its just not a way of making steady profit.

Morgans

Not sure if handbags are required. There is more than one way to skin a cat and whatever way you can make money out of it great. The buzz from a big priced winner is hard to beat. But I can appreciate people who only back in group races, only back when the horses is fancied, restrict themselves to 2 - 3 bets a year.

If I was to criticise Rossom its that you find it easy to excuse bad runs for all sorts of reasons, often to fit into an arguement, rather than being objective. Its as if you have your mind made up, and every bad piece of form is excused to bolster the arguement as well as every good piece of form. You can find value undoubtedly, and you have the record to prove it, but often the bad pieces of form that you excuse can be viewed differently and is often the reason why the selections are the price they are.

I do like when you analyse the pace biases of races. I find those analyses more persuasive

I think the americans call it back-class. In the past the horse has shown the form to win, and the circumstances are right for them to show that form again. Its one (of several) valid way of trying to make money punting.