Champion Stakes, Ascot, 20/10/12

kincsem

I have bet €108 at 8s (7/1) Cirrus Des Aigles, antepost.

Frankel has won 13 from 13 so he can't be beat. Or can he?

• It is now soft ground, with more rain forecast. Frankel has only run once on soft, his debut, when he won by 1/2 length.
• Distance is 10f, Frankel has run once at 10f. Cirrus des Aigles has run 36 times at 10f or longer.
• Frankel is unbeaten, and the connections will want to preserve that record,so he might be scratched.
• Cirrus Des Aigles has serious form on very soft / heavy. He has good pace on it. He has won his last five races on very soft or heavy by 9l, 8l, 10l, 8l, 3l.

For this bet to work the ground must be very soft.
For more comments on Cirris Des Aigles form google "nickmordin.com" "Cirrus Des Aigles"

saiint

very risky bet
will have a nose :P gl!

Goldcupfav

Backed CDA in this race last year at 14/1. I'll be having a punt on him again this year. CDA doesn't get the credit he deserves imo. Horse is a serious machine and will give frankel his toughest race so far. Loving the bet by the OP no doubt CDA will trade lower in running so could always lay it off that way. Good luck with the bet.

UrbanSea

He is a brilliant horse. The more rain the better, that was horrible ground he won the Prix Dollar on

tryfix

An excellent price on a horse that will start favourite if Frankel is pulled because of the ground.

I rate Frankel's Gd/Sft ground Queen Anne win at 135. Cirrus Des Aigles on Heavy ground has run to 132 in his Prix Dollar win, 132+ in the Ganay and 132 in the Grand Prix De Deauville. On Gd/Sft ground Frankel should win, on heavy ground it's definitely game on. On Gd/Sft he only beat Silver Pond 1 3/4L when finishing 2nd in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud. 2 months later he beat the same horse 10L on Heavy ground.

d-gal

Best bet is Nathaniel at 9/1 with Lads paying 3 places, crazy good value. The 3yo crop are terrible this year and Master of Hounds and Bullet Train are well below standard. Nathaniel loves cut in the ground as well

Colonel Sanders

d-gal wrote: »

Best bet is Nathaniel at 9/1 with Lads paying 3 places, crazy good value. The 3yo crop are terrible this year and Master of Hounds and Bullet Train are well below standard. Nathaniel loves cut in the ground as well

Gives you 9/5 the place too. He'll be odds on place only if the dead 8 stand their ground

Nulty

Frankel has been eased a touch with heavy ground forecast. This should be leveling out the playing field. Wouldn't it be something if a horse who isn't allowed run in the Arc because someone decided to cut his balls off beating the best horse in history. I'm torn between them to be honest. I wouldn't mind seeing Cirrus winning, he's some horse.

Morgans

Nor me.

Circumstances are conspiring against Frankel. Proven heavy ground 130+ horse over 1m2f in his optimum conditions. If Frankel wins this in the same manner as his other wins, and CdA runs to his best form, it will be increasingly difficult to deny those who say he is the best ever.

The funny thing is that if Frankel had in some fantasy land beaten Solemia last month over 1m4f, I believe that plenty would say that it proved nothing and he needed to take on some top class opposition before it proved anything.

Overthelast

I would take the opposite view & would be both surprised & disappointed if Frankel lost.

This yrs Arc was a disappointment for many - as the horses fancied to win/we expected to run well didn't cross the line first (orfevre - shot his load too early? Camelot sick?, Great Heavens - no show? etc). I'm not taking away from the quality of the race, I'm just saying many ended up disappointing us for various reasons on the day & scrambled to explain performances or lack their of. In truth, it was easy to make excuses for some not winning.

I feel the same may happen on Saturday if Frankel doesn't come out on top. The doubters of his ability/rating will feel vindicated, while those who believe he's the best for a long time (if ever?) will jump to his defence. A normal response one might say, but in the end, it would be a disappointment. Thats why I would hate to see any other horse win on Saturday, especially one whose seed cannot be spread!

Personally, I don't think the field have any chance against him on Saturday. The predicted heavy going may blunt his speed, but the track is fresh enough & good horses will win on any surface. Remember, the word "soft" was in the going description when he last popped down to Ascot & knocked fifty shades out of excelebration. No bets for me on this race. Simply a viewing day saturday & I'll flick over to Cheltenham immediately if anything other than Frankel crosses the line in first place Saturday & deny that the race ever happened..!!

kincsem

There has been a lot of rain at Ascot racecourse over the past few days.
Turftrax give it as soft, but that reading was three days ago. It must be almost heavy.

I've taken a few insurance bets.
Ridasiyna 40.74 €10.00 €397.38
Pastorius 55 €20.00 €1,080.00
Pastorius is the German Derby winner. Most German horses handle soft.

Cirrus Des Aigles 8 €108.01 €756.07
I'm trying to get another €100 on Cirrus Des Aigles at 8s but no takers. The market will go from antepost to day of race tomorrow.

UrbanSea

Overthelast wrote: »

I would take the opposite view & would be both surprised & disappointed if Frankel lost.

This yrs Arc was a disappointment for many - as the horses fancied to win/we expected to run well didn't cross the line first (orfevre - shot his load too early? Camelot sick?, Great Heavens - no show? etc). I'm not taking away from the quality of the race, I'm just saying many ended up disappointing us for various reasons on the day & scrambled to explain performances or lack their of. In truth, it was easy to make excuses for some not winning.

I feel the same may happen on Saturday if Frankel doesn't come out on top. The doubters of his ability/rating will feel vindicated, while those who believe he's the best for a long time (if ever?) will jump to his defence. A normal response one might say, but in the end, it would be a disappointment. Thats why I would hate to see any other horse win on Saturday, especially one whose seed cannot be spread!

Personally, I don't think the field have any chance against him on Saturday. The predicted heavy going may blunt his speed, but the track is fresh enough & good horses will win on any surface. Remember, the word "soft" was in the going description when he last popped down to Ascot & knocked fifty shades out of excelebration. No bets for me on this race. Simply a viewing day saturday & I'll flick over to Cheltenham immediately if anything other than Frankel crosses the line in first place Saturday & deny that the race ever happened..!!

Thought Great Heavens ran a brilliant race.

Another small field,only Frankel,Bullet Train,Master of Hounds,Nathaniel,Pastorius and Cirrus Des Aigles go

the groutch

yeah, only a 3&1/2 horse race, those who have Nathaniel/Cirrus e/w antepost 3 places are sitting pretty.

aidan24326

kincsem wrote: »

[*]Frankel is unbeaten, and the connections will want to preserve that record,so he might be scratched.

I'd say connections would feel under a bit of pressure to run him, given it's his last race and he's the horse everyone will be there to see tomorrow.

He's not reliant on fast ground so I don't think the going will inconvenience him to too much unless it turns into an absolute mudfest. But Cirrus Des Aigles over 1M2F on his favoured ground does at least represent a challenge for Frankel, and that's what we've wanted to see.

TheMilkyPirate

If Frankel beats CDA the same way he has been beating everyone else in that ground tomorrow I don't think anyone could doubt his claim to be the greatest there has been.

It's his first proper test IMO and I can't wait.

BQQ

Frankel team saying he may not run.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/8179581/frankel-run-not-guaranteed

Yet another let down if they don't go through with this race. Can't believe they're running scared of a horse rated 10lbs lower.

How many boxcar joes can they beat before people don't care anymore.

3ndahalfof6

Not a good race, trying to find value, my money will be on PASTORIUS, I back him EW, and to win without Frankle, to be honest there is no value in the race, the ground seems to be drying up very fast,

unless we get a big spill, the result is MR F by 4 lengths.

tryfix

BQQ wrote: »

Frankel team saying he may not run.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/8179581/frankel-run-not-guaranteed

Yet another let down if they don't go through with this race. Can't believe they're running scared of a horse rated 10lbs lower.

How many boxcar joes can they beat before people don't care anymore.

If they run him he'll win by between 1 3/4l and 3l from Cirrus Des Aigles with Nathaniel and Pastorius 3 1/2l further back fighting for third place. He's not inconvenienced by soft ground and if he's a 140 horse he'll have to beat Cirrus Des Aigles by 5l to prove it. They might as well let the choke out seeing as it's his last race.

3ndahalfof6

tryfix wrote: »

If they run him he'll win by between 1 3/4l and 3l from Cirrus Des Aigles with Nathaniel and Pastorius 3 1/2l further back fighting for third place. He's not inconvenienced by soft ground and if he's a 140 horse he'll have to beat Cirrus Des Aigles by 5l to prove it. They might as well let the choke out seeing as it's his last race.

nope.

tryfix

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

nope.

Yep, or maybe:)

Frankel @ 140 OR has 10lbs on Cirrus Des Aigles @ 130 = 10lb @ 1.75lb per length = 5.7l. Nathaniel @ OR 124 at 10F = 6lb/1.75 = 3 1/2l behind Cirrus Des Aigles. Pastorius @ 122 will be snapping at Nathaniel's heels.

Frankel runs to about 135 every time and will do so again tomorrow.:p

tryfix

tryfix wrote: »

If they run him he'll win by between 1 3/4l and 3l from Cirrus Des Aigles with Nathaniel and Pastorius 3 1/2l further back fighting for third place. He's not inconvenienced by soft ground and if he's a 140 horse he'll have to beat Cirrus Des Aigles by 5l to prove it. They might as well let the choke out seeing as it's his last race.

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

nope.

tryfix wrote: »

Yep, or maybe:)

Frankel @ 140 OR has 10lbs on Cirrus Des Aigles @ 130 = 10lb @ 1.75lb per length = 5.7l. Nathaniel @ OR 124 at 10F = 6lb/1.75 = 3 1/2l behind Cirrus Des Aigles. Pastorius @ 122 will be snapping at Nathaniel's heels.

Frankel runs to about 135 every time and will do so again tomorrow.:p

Yep

Morgans

Thought he was beat for a second.

To run to that form, while giving away distance at the start, suggests that 135 is the minimum that he could be rated.

tryfix

Morgans wrote: »

Thought he was beat for a second.

To run to that form, while giving away distance at the start, suggests that 135 is the minimum that he could be rated.

He's awesome, he must be the only horse ever to put in that many 135 runs in a row. Simply outstanding, ultra-consistent, any ground comes alike to him. I'm delighted for Henry, a true gent.


My favourite Frankel run is still his 2yo Royal Lodge win.

Morgans

Yes. Cecil is magnificent.

Anyone thinking that he needed or should have gone to the arc need to think again. Unfair on the horse. He beat the best middle distance animals without having to go there. Amazing animal.

d-gal

Folks I backed Nathaniel ante post last week when lads were paying 3 places but they have not paid out? Lads and boyles were the only places paying 3 places when the 8 were initially declared and everywhere else was 2places

Nulty

Paddy Power said:

“Frankel has cost us about £5m over the course of his career which averages out at around £360k per run. But it's been money very well spent as he has increased the profile of the Sport of Kings immeasurably."

Whatever about the money, what they say about the sport is good.

HigginsJ

Fabulous Fantastic Frankel.

Sir Henry does not look or sound well. Thoughts are with him.

ArmaniJeanss

d-gal wrote: »

Folks I backed Nathaniel ante post last week when lads were paying 3 places but they have not paid out? Lads and boyles were the only places paying 3 places when the 8 were initially declared and everywhere else was 2places

You should get paid on this obviously, the ew terms at that time count.
Leave it an hour or two and email them.

UrbanSea

HigginsJ wrote: »

Fabulous Fantastic Frankel.

Sir Henry does not look or sound well. Thoughts are with him.

He looked terrible. Glad to see he could make it, I'd say he would have had to be in a coma to miss it.

Morleystreet

Delighted for sir Henry - doesn't look well at all.

Was at curragh last year and standing in queue for burger, turned around and sir Henry was behind me in queue, so I said hello, and started chatting about midday - who had been well beaten- and of course frankel. He was so down to earth, just in d burger queue n happy to talk bit about the horses. Had to get d autograph too. Real gent.

Da Shins Kelly

Best wishes to Sir Henry Cecil. Hope he pulls through, he's a great guy.

As for Frankel, there's nothing really that can be said that hasn't been said already. Gotta be the best flat horse in generations, if not the best ever.

kincsem

Congratulation Frankel. I lost on Cirrus Des Aigles and Pastorius.
Best wishes to Sir Henry Cecil. I hope he has decades enjoying his vegetable and rose gardens.

elderberry

David Walsh had a very good piece on Henry Cecil & Frankel in the Sunday Times magazine last sunday week. Never knew Henry is a Scot (born in Aberdeen) and his mother found out that her husband had been killed in action in North Africa four days before giving birth to him & his twin brother.