ERC rankings

DeDoc

As I've posted often, I'm not the biggest fan of the ERC rankings, but there are likely to be some significant movements this year, which will affect seedings.

I've listed some teams below, with their current seeding tier, current ERC points, and points that they need this year to maintain their current points level

First list is those I expect to experience a drop in rankings big enough to probably see them drop a tier.

Munster 1 23 7
Cardiff Blues 1 20 7
Northampton Saints 1 20 5
Leicester Tigers 2 17 9
Edinburgh 2 12 2

Second list if those likely to do the opposite
Clermont Auvergne 2 18 2
Ulster 2 17 2
Harlequins 2 15 5
Toulon 2 15 0
Saracens 3 8 2

It is obviously v.early to be overly confident in any predictions, but going from the top:
Munster (and Sarries) results at the weekend would suggest that Sarries are likely to top the pool with Munster in second. That would see Munster drop to 19 points. Sarries should probably climb to 11 (can't see them doing much damage in the knockouts though)
Cardiffs result will likely see them drop at least 5 points, maybe 6 - to about 14/15 points
I'd expect Saints to finish second to Ulster in their pool for a drop of of 2 points to 18
Ulster meanwhile will I think get at least 3 more points, taking them to 20
Tigers will probably be big losers, dropping at least 6 points to 11
Edinburgh will drop a point I think - certainly won't increase. 11/12 points
Clermont will pick up at least a point - the Leinster series will be key, if they top the group they could well win the thing. Likely to be on 20+
Quins will top their group and could do well - 20+ points
Toulon ditto 20+ points

So....

Leinster, Toulouse and Biarritz are pretty sure to be thereabouts (to current positions). Munster, Cardiff and Saints will probably be replaced by 3 of Ulster, Clermont, Quins and Toulon
Embra are likely to drop to third seeds, being leapfrogged by Sarries

Quint2010

I've got a headache..

GerM

Quint2010 wrote: »

I've got a headache..

You sound like my missus.

durkadurka

Try arriving into the bedroom with 2 paracetamol as a pre emptive measure.


Edit: and by the way, recent form should get greater weighting than what you did four years ago.
But enough about how you do in the sack....

ray jay

You're going to have to do some formatting on that post before it'll get many responses Doc.

errlloyd

The ERC rankings are hugely flawed, but we probably only care because Leinster got such a cluster fcuk of a group out of it.