Betfred Cesarewitch 2012

Nulty

Love this race. Have had a decent record in it the last two years. Found the winner Aaim To Prosper in 2011 and the second last year with Ermyn Lodge.

I'm going with Hurricane Higgins and Ermyn Lodge this time around. I've had my bets on for quite a while and don't see anything worth taking at this stage on top of those.

Hurricane Higgins is well in after finishing close up in the Doncaster Cup and is still unexposed over two miles plus. He looks to have a very good chance. Ermyn Lodge was very unlucky to be pipped by Frankie Dettori on Never Can Tell. He had perfect conditions last year with the draw, ground and even a tail wind. He is still capable of winning this and it's been the target of the horse since the race last year. He's still over priced at 33/1. Depending on the draw he could be less than half that price.

Who's gonna win the Betfred Cesarewitch?

Nulty

55 horses left in the race, with 34 going to post.

Montaser is number 35. I think everyone is drawing comparisons between this horse and Darley Sun who bolted up for Simcock in 2009. He may well win but he doesn't have much in hand on official ratings. 2lbs well in. He's likely to be improving and the step up in trip is also cause for hope. He'll get in with feck all weight and connections seem keen to get in. Looks like it's been the plan all along. Anyone taking him?

Repeater is another 3yo but he has much more in hand on official. He's been revised to 108 but get in here off 94. That's a big advantage! He's in the care of Sir Mark P and we all know his style at this stage. He's had another run since when he didn't show a great deal but the extended trip will surely suit him and he'll probably start favourite. At least with that much in hand he should! 16/1 still available.

Nulty

Jimmy Quinn has been booked for Countrywide Flame. Thats a bit of a surprise. He's not been very popular since the fixing thing.

hucklebuck

The ones I will be having a closer look at will be Aaim To Prosper, Keplers Law and Decoy (Pipe with Turner booked looks interesting)

mr.jingle

Conor Hoban been booked to ride Beyond for Pipe off a very low weight and his 5lb also off i think i'll be going in on him at around 25/1. Went off 2nd fav last year but was a well beat 7th another year older and a decent run behind Hurricane Higgins in August i'm sure one of the shops will go 6 places come Saturday so will hang around as i think he's a good each way bet and Pipe is a shrewd trainer with a decent enough record on the flat for a predominantly jumps trainer

mailburner

countrywide flame off 8-5 looks good to me even if 9s is short
enough for a race like that

Nulty

mailburner wrote: »

countrywide flame off 8-5 looks good to me even if 9s is short
enough for a race like that

Its a horrible looking race to be honest and you might be making the right choice going with the favourite. But, as usual, it will all look so obvious on Saturday afternoon.

They're not going to get any real rain there before the race as far as i can tell. Should be on the slow side of good

longshotvalue

Ashbrittle is way overpriced in this at 85 win and 13.5 place on betfair. He ran an eye-catching race at Ascot in the Ascot Stakes when travelling well only to get badly bumped 2 Furlongs out. He ran on again at the finish to be 7th and a repeat of that run along with a 2lbs lower mark and a good 3lbs claimer on is going to make this price looks silly hopefully.


1/2 Point win 1/2 Point Place Betfair 85/13.5

Nulty

I think Ashbrittle has it in him but I don't think he'll put it on the table. He's just not quick enough.

Similar horses would be Nafaath, Martial Law and Stormy Weather. All will likely stay, have a bit of class about them and won't mind the ground.

Overthelast

The biggest problem with this race is trying to figure out what the hell is happening in the race itself! Such a big field, starting in one county and finishing in another.

Like the profile of I have a Dream - 3yo Galileo who'll act on GS & is open to any amount of improvement. The last race he won has worked out ok thus far though the full form has yet to be tested. Only problem is he's drawn in a stall thats so far out its nearly off the course. Not sure has anyone ever won from that high a draw?

3ndahalfof6

I will be going with DECOY and AAIM TO PROSPER, it is a crazy big field, be lucky with your selections if you decide to have one.

longshotvalue

I’m also going for Blue Bajan at a big looking 40/1 EW 5 places with Bet365. This is the first time this year he is running over an extended trip, which is what he needs and he has looked decent in his last few runs without getting any luck in running. He should be able to perform of this mark and could well be staying on past a good few of these at the end.

1 Point EW 40/1 Bet365 5 Places
I’m going to add a small EW on last year’s second Ermyn Lodge , he has obviously been trained with this race in mind all year, and hasn’t really done anything in 2 unsuitable races but he is only lbs higher than last year and a repeat of that form would give him a great chance of placing at 40/1.

½ Point EW 40/1 Bet365 5 Places

rossom

I looked at the race for ages and I could give you half the field and probably not find the winner. I too am in the Ermyn Lodge boat at 40s as the lads have said he's clearly been trained for this race all year since finishing 2nd in it last year and Pat Phelan is a trainer that I certainly feel who knows what they're doing with regards training a horse for a specific race. Small bet only as its a minefield

slaneylad

Alhellal off 8-3, m phelan and wayne lordan. 34 runners anything could win it

hucklebuck

Gone through the lot and narrowed it down to 4:

Lyric Street fits the weight and age stats category, he has a decent record at the course, my one concern is form....

Hurricane Higgins fits the weight and age stats category, he has placed once in three runs at the course, he has tried the trip once and placed but in four runs on good to soft he hasn't placed or won, that's enough for me to put a line through him

I Have A Dream fits the weight and age stats category but while it is O Brien and Moore there is no history for the horse on the ground, track, trip or partnership so a line through him for me

Olympiad fits the weight and age stats category, the only history is the partnership which is four races, two wins and two places I am willing to take a chance on this as my second selection as the trainer doesn't send many across the water so that speaks plenty about him.

This is a minefield of a race so I have only done €1EW on Lyric Street 50/1 and €3 EW on Olympiad 12/1, my money is going on national hunt today .

Good luck all.

Starokan

On Alhellal ew @ 25/1, backed him last time out in down royal, i think he could run into a place , its a lottery of a race but i love watching it

Nulty

Fantastic performance by Aaim To Prosper. Didn't think he could do it with top weight. Delighted for the horse. Incredible.

3ndahalfof6

Nulty wrote: »

Fantastic performance by Aaim To Prosper. Didn't think he could do it with top weight. Delighted for the horse. Incredible.

I have to agree, great training performance by Brian Meehan, plus the bank balance is looking better, between rossom yesterday and this today it should keep me going, backing my next 50 losers,

I only got 50s meself, backed it yesterday.

Nulty

Ground was wrong for Ermyn Lodge, didn't jump the gates like he did last year, couldn't get near the front and tailed off consequently. Hurricane Higgins had no confidence behind him for some reason and has no form on easy ground, maybe that's what got him or maybe something else.

I'll say again, really exceptional performance by the winner with all that weight. He's a stayer to be reckoned with. Would win races over 10 miles.

Nulty

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

I have to agree, great training performance by Brian Meehan, plus the bank balance is looking better, between rossom yesterday and this today it should keep me going, backing my next 50 losers,

I only got 50s meself, backed it yesterday.

Well done on picking him. I couldn't have taken him with 9-10 on his back but like I said earlier in the thread - it seems obvious now.