28th September

rossom

4.35 Newmarket

Fair Trade 66/1

Extremely speculative bet but if he bounces back to form, and that's a big if, then 66s looks a massive price. He was on the verge of being very smart for Dominic Elsworth as a 3 year old as he was thought good enough to contest the 2,000 Guineas (finished a respectable midfield) and he was arguably unlucky not to land a Group 3 when denied a clear run at a crucial time when beaten a length. He had a big injury setback though and was off the track for 18 months before making his reappearance on stable debut for Hughie Morrison when sent off a 7/2 shot in a Listed contest at Kempton in March (Raymond Tooth remained owner). He pulled miles too hard that day but the fact he was sent off such a short price against the Leger winner of the previous year says a fair bit of what this horse used to be capable of. He's had 3 runs since then and he hasn't really been at his best in them either. At Royal Ascot he tried to lead from the front but quickly capitulated. At Haydock on heavy ground he was a small bit better but again he didn't show much at all and on his last start at York he tried to make all in the 18 runner field and pretty much died on his feet and fell back through the field rather quickly to be finished tailed off. Not really the best of reading I know but the handicapper has dropped him a massive 16lb from his last to a mark of 90 and that should surely help an awful lot. He's a horse who is often quite keen and with a strong pace guaranteed and in such a big field I think if he finds some cover it may help him an awful lot. He has to burden top weight of 9-10 but he has the physique of a horse that can carry a big weight and Classic Calori was beaten under the same welter burden last year by a very narrow margin which shows it can be done. In his 3 year old days, he ran well a few times at the course which is a bonus and George Baker is a good jockey booking having a 16% strike rate with Morrison on older horses. Hugely speculative bet but I think that's clearly taken into consideration with the price and although he could easily bomb out and finish nowhere if Hughie has gotten him back to his former self in the 76 days since his last race then he could pop up at a massive price.

In the same race, I thought Norse Blues 25/1 was a big eye catcher yesterday at the track where he wasn't given an overly hard time of things. His mark of 88 looks workable and is again worth an e/w bet in an ultra competitive field

mr.jingle

Certify was very impressive there in the Fillie's mile another great ride by Barzalona no messing about and put the race to bed