September 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

September 2012 Boards forecast contest

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1. Predict the IMT for September, the 1981-2010 average was 13.2 C (up from 12.9 in 1971-2000 and 12.7 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for September at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for September at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus question. Will it get windy this September? Predict the maximum wind gust reported on any daily summary and confirmed in the monthly summary (in knots; roughly double km/hr, so as an example, 60 knots almost 120 km/hr or about 70 mph).


TEMPLATE ...

IMT .... MAX .... MIN .... PRC .... SUN .... GUST

Normal deadlines apply -- end of Saturday 1st for on time entries, slight penalty on 2nd, more severe penalty on 3rd, effectively closed 0300h 4th.

(I say effectively closed because I have allowed two contestants to enter with more severe penalties after 0300h 4th ... this just allows them to stay alive in the contest and I've noted that they were unlikely to make a run to the top either with or without the concession ... I reserve the right to apply the late rule "by the books" for contestants near the top of the standings to maintain the integrity of the contest.)

Sponge Bob

13.7 ... 24.1 ... 2.1 ... 86 ... 102 ... 64KT

NIALL D

13.1 ... 22.9 ... 1.6 ... 95 ... 97 ... 53kt

MiNdGaM3

14.0 .... 24.2 .... -0.1 .... 80 .... 122 .... 40

200motels

13.9 ... 27.8 ... 2.9 ... 63 ... 140 ... 49KT

Bsal

13.5 .... 21.9 .... -0.4 .... 121% .... 105% .... 59kts

M.T. Cranium

13.6 ... 25.8 ... -2.5 ... 080 ... 130 ... 61 kts

snowstreams

13.3 ... 23.8 ... -0.3 ... 103 ... 110 ... 51kt

pauldry

13.4 .... 22.2 .... 2.9 .... 115 .... 89 .... 61

Iancar29

13.5 ... 26.3 ... -3.0 ... 080 ... 130 ... 60 kts

delw

13.6.....25.4....1.5.....90......98.....49kts

Hammer Archer

13.7 .... 22.5 .... -0.5 .... 80.... 110.... 50

catch.23

13.8 .... 22.0 .... 2.0 .... 120 .... 95 .... 55

H2UMrsRobinson

13.2...23.0...3.2...112%...79%... 58knts

Harps

13.5 .... 24.1 .... -0.6 .... 130 .... 100 .... 51 kts

mickger844posts

13.5 .... 23.8 .... 2.4 .... 90 .... 124 .... 44

jd

13.6 .... 23.9 .... -0.8 .... 118% .... 103% .... 57kts

dasa29

13.3 .... 23.5 .... -1.0 .... 130% .... 90% .... 65kts

DOCARCH

13.4 .... 21.7 .... -0.6 .... 96 .... 105 .... 56

SeaFields

14.0 .... 25.5 .... 2.0 .... 60 .... 120 .... 50

Lumi

13.8 .... 22.9 .... 0.0 .... 89 .... 101 .... 55

traecy1

13.5....25.5....4.5....100....110....55kts

dacogawa

13.9 .... 24.4 .... -0.9 .... 100 .... 120 .... 64kts

kindredspirit

13.7 ... 25.0 ... 2.0 ... 80 ... 110 ... 50

homolumo

13.8 .... 23.3 .... 2.4 .... 95 .... 104 .... 53

waterways

14.0 .... 22.3 .... 0.0.... 80 .... 125 .... 50

nilhg

13.8 .... 25.1 .... -1 .... 61 .... 110 .... 45kts

Danno

14.0 .... 24.4 .... -0.7 .... 70 .... 140 .... 48Kt

Speak Now

13.6 .... 23.2 .... 0.0 .... 80 .... 120 .... 57

Joe Public

14.4 .... 24.9 .... 2.9 .... 69 .... 139 .... 55Kt

Tae laidir

13.9 .... 22.2 .... 0.9 .... 81 .... 138 .... 51

Strasser

14.1 ... 24.9 ... -0.1 ... 85 ... 109 ... 36

Sorry about being late, I know there will be a penalty.

jambofc

13.8 ... 24.9 ... -1.0 ... 095 ... 120 ... 55

Rikand

13.5 ...... 24.5 ...... -1.0 ...... 100 ...... 120 ...... 45kt

okla

13.8...23.7...2.1...90...95...45kts

John mac

12.8 .... 24.3 ....2.8 .... 110.... 89 .... 65

M.T. Cranium

Penalties for entries made today (up to 0300h Monday) are relatively slight, you just lose 10% of points scored if you exceed 60, and the penalty can't bring you below 60, so it really bites into scores above 65.

Entries made on Monday will be penalized a bit more severely, the same concept applies but the penalty begins at 50.

Rocky Bay

13.7 ...25.9 ...2.5 ...081 ...131 ...71kts

rameire

13.6 .... 23.2 .... 4.0 .... 90 .... 110 .... 40

As usual I am late. And nearly too late.

lostinashford

12.7 ... 23.1 ... 2.4 ... 90 ... 110 ... 43KT

cherryghost

Apologies for the delay..

13.5 ... 22.5 ... -0.5 ... 85 ... 115 ... 32KT

M.T. Cranium

September 2012 forecasts
_____________________________________

Forecaster .................. IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max Gust

Joe Public ................ 14.4 ... 24.9 ... 2.9 ... 069 ... 139 ... 55
Strasser* ................ 14.1 ... 24.9 .. -0.1 ... 085 ... 109 ... 36
waterways .............. 14.0 ... 22.3 ... 0.0 ... 080 ... 125 ... 50
SeaFields ................ 14.0 ... 25.5 ... 2.0 ... 060 ... 120 ... 50
waterways .............. 14.0 ... 22.3 ... 0.0 ... 080 ... 125 ... 50
Danno .................... 14.0 ... 24.4 .. -0.7 ... 070 ... 140 ... 48
MiNdGaM3 ............... 14.0 ... 24.2 .. -0.1 ... 080 ... 122 ... 40
200motels ............... 13.9 ... 27.8 ... 2.9 ... 063 ... 140 ... 49
Tae laidir ................ 13.9 ... 22.2 ... 0.9 ... 081 ... 138 ... 51
dacogawa ............... 13.9 ... 24.4 .. -0.9 ... 100 ... 120 ... 64
homolumo ............... 13.8 ... 23.3 ... 2.4 ... 095 ... 104 ... 53
Lumi ...................... 13.8 ... 22.9 ... 0.0 ... 089 ... 101 ... 55
okla* ..................... 13.8 ... 23.7 ... 2.1 ... 090 ... 095 ... 45
jambofc* ................ 13.8 ... 24.9 .. -1.0 ... 095 ... 120 ... 55
nilhg ....................... 13.8 ... 25.1 .. -1.0 ... 061 ... 110 ... 45
catch.23 ................. 13.8 ... 22.0 ... 2.0 ... 120 ... 095 ... 55
Hammer Archer ......... 13.7 ... 22.5 .. -0.5 ... 080 ... 110 ... 50
Sponge Bob ..,.......... 13.7 ... 24.1 ... 2.1 ... 086 ... 102 ... 64
Rocky Bay* ............. 13.7 ... 25.9 ... 2.5 ... 081 ... 131 ... 71
kindredspirit ............. 13.7 ... 25.0 ... 2.0 ... 080 ... 110 ... 50

Con Sensus .............. 13.7 ... 23.9 ... 0.5 ... 090 ... 110 ... 52

rameire* ................. 13.6 ... 23.2 ... 4.0 ... 090 ... 110 ... 40
Jerry Seinfeld ........... 13.6 ... 23.2 ... 0.0 ... 080 ... 120 ... 57
M.T. Cranium ........... 13.6 ... 25.8 .. -2.5 ... 080 ... 130 ... 61
delw ....................... 13.6 ... 25.4 ... 1.5 ... 090 ... 098 ... 49
jd .......................... 13.6 ... 23.9 .. -0.8 ... 118 ... 103 ... 57
Bsal ....................... 13.5 ... 21.9 .. -0.4 ... 121 ... 105 ... 59
cherryghost** ......... 13.5 ... 22.5 .. -0.5 ... 085 ... 115 ... 32
Rickylovesuall* ......... 13.5 ... 24.5 .. -1.0 ... 100 ... 120 ... 45
Iancar29 ................. 13.5 ... 26.3 .. -3.0 ... 080 ... 130 ... 60
Harps ..................... 13.5 ... 24.1 .. -0.6 ... 130 ... 100 ... 51
mickger844posts ...... 13.5 ... 23.8 ... 2.4 ... 090 ... 124 ... 44
traecy1 .................. 13.5 ... 25.5 ... 4.5 ... 100 ... 110 ... 55
pauldry ................... 13.4 ... 22.2 ... 2.9 ... 115 ... 089 ... 61
DOCARCH ................ 13.4 ... 21.7 .. -0.6 ... 096 ... 105 ... 56
dasa29 ................... 13.3 ... 23.5 .. -1.0 ... 130 ... 090 ... 65
snowstreams ........... 13.3 ... 23.8 .. -0.3 ... 103 ... 110 ... 51
H2UMrsRobinson ....... 13.2 ... 23.0 ... 3.2 ... 112 ... 079 ... 58
NIALL D .................. 13.1 ... 22.9 ... 1.6 ... 095 ... 097 ... 53
John mac* .............. 12.8 ... 24.3 ... 2.8 ... 110 ... 089 ... 65
lostinashford** ........ 12.7 ... 23.1 ... 2.4 ... 090 ... 110 ... 43

* late entries, pen if >60
** late-late entries, pen if >50
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The consensus seems to be for a rather warm, dry and sunny month with a good chance of a fairly strong wind event ... good luck to all, and welcome to our new entrants.

Sponge Bob

Max 22.3c in Oak Park yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

First week report, 1-7 September,

IMT was 14.5 C (slightly above normal overall)

Rainfall has been only 20% of normal, that mainly in far west and north, Oak Park has been dry through the week (and now eight days), several other stations had only very small amounts.

Sunshine data quite incomplete but what there is to see would suggest that the week ran about 150% of normal sunshine.

Rikand

Stupid getting married giving me a late penalty

M.T. Cranium

It's not much of a penalty (the conest, of course).

Tae laidir

Max gust in next day or so?
Will be watching Belmullet & Malin.

pauldry

50knots malin so far

Tae laidir

Min so far 4.4c Casement on 12th

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE on the monthly stats ...

The IMT for week two (8-14) was 12.9 C and this sets the monthly value at 13.7 C. This is now slightly below normal for the period.

Rainfall averaged 72% of normal and this brings the monthly average up to about 46% of normal.

Sunshine data, once again rather incomplete, were in the vicinity of 112% of normal, leaving that element around 131% of normal.

Rikand

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It's not much of a penalty (the conest, of course).

On current values im odds on for a big fat zero so nothing to worry about at all lol.