Did any long range forecaster get it right?

sandin

Having listened in school to a geography teacher who beat it into us that no-one could predict Irish weather for more than a week, its interesting to see did any of the infamous long ramgers even get a smidgeon of this summer's forcast right.

Here's the Ken Ring forecast (his exact words)

I think you can expect a slow start to a mild summer, with summer temperatures not really arriving until the start of July and lasting for about two weeks into August, and maybe till the second week of September in the west.
The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June.
Warm temperatures may occur during the last week in June, also around the end of July/beginning of Aug, coinciding with the full moon, as well as the first half of August.
As for best time for holidays, there are relatively short dry spells in May and June but of all dry spells my choice would be the last ten days of June. Another dry spell for all may be the last week of July and the first week of August, when mostly fine days are anticipated despite the odd passing shower.



Real Summary
Last week of June was dreadful, the past week just gone and the forecast for this week is as bad. We've had the fire lighting on numerous occasions in July and I suspect it will be lit again over the coming nights.

Hmmm - if it was marked out of 100, i'd give at best 35%

I don't want to target Ken Ring specifically, though he is the one that courts the most publicity, but possibly this will show how unpredictable Irish weather is and anyone who tells you what will happen in a months time or further is talking out of his/her hat.

Even with the greatest respect to the Boards defacto Weatherman MT Cranium, as you go past 3 days his predictions are unreliable - but at least he writes it in that vein.

JM Skipton

In Fairness he got a few things right "with summer temperatures not really arriving until the start of July and lasting for about two weeks into August" he didn't say it would be wall to wall sunshine there was a lot of rain but the temperatures were about normal for Irish summer, "Another dry spell for all may be the last week of July" May not have been for all but Dublin certainly probably had its best spell of weather during this period.
I just cant believe how diverse the weather has been this summer, someone in Cork could be lighting their fire and someone in Dublin is experiencing 23 or 24 degrees at the same time.

allthedoyles

I distinctly heard Gerry Fleming telling Bryan Dobson that long-range forecasting was not possible .

And I believe that .

bb12

I bought Ken Rings almanac for last years weather and in a three year summary he said that 2011 would be coolest, 2012 would be the wettest and 2013 would be the sunniest...so i'm holding out for next summer.

Sappa

bb12 wrote: »

I bought Ken Rings almanac for last years weather and in a three year summary he said that 2011 would be coolest, 2012 would be the wettest and 2013 would be the sunniest...so i'm holding out for next summer.

Well I will be living in the USA by then so looking for some decent weather here first as this summer has been awful.

TURRICAN

http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2056612423?page=1#post_78230985

I got close 14th post in;):)

Deep Easterly

I am cynical of long ranges myself but I think it is hats off to the wee Donegal postman who seems to have predicted this summer's weather well. Respect where respect is due, especially considering his fairly good record over the last couple of years.

Quote from him from back in March:

When asked if the good weather is going to be continuing for the summer the Postman was quick with his response: “I think you can keep your money in your pocket on that one.

“Weather like this at this time of year is just not natural and that’s not a good sign. The temperatures have been soaring all through March and that’s a spark out of the ordinary run of things.
“I’m sorry to say it, but if it comes early, it goes quick. Its been dry the whole month of March and dont forget March is still winter”, he said.

Commenting on the signs he has seen in nature that have concerned him about what we have in store Michael said he has seen the sheep in the fields behaving very oddly and the fog lingering in the hills: “They are not good signs”.

Source: http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/forecasters_head_to_head_over_sunshine

octo

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am cynical of long ranges myself but I think it is hats off to the wee Donegal postman who seems to have predicted this summer's weather well. Respect where respect is due, especially considering his fairly good record over the last couple of years.

Quote from him from back in March:



Source: http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/forecasters_head_to_head_over_sunshine

Thanks for that. But I still think he's just strikes it lucky occasionally. He was on the Met Eireann TV50 programme a few weeks ago saying the signs were good for summer.

There's no correlation between spring and summer weather. It's easy enough to get a long stream of monthly rainfall and temperature data and graph spring against summer to see if there's a pattern. I've done it, there isn't. For there to be, would imply that the atmosphere has a 'memory' of some kind, or a kind of account balancing system, which isn't what chaos is about. The atmosphere behaves chaotically.

Also, think about it, how could sheep possibly know what weather was coming in the months ahead? That should also be quite easy to test empirically. Anecdotes prove nothing.

It's attractive to imagine a version of reality where the natural everyday world gave us portents of the future that wise simple folk can understand. But I don't think it's true.

Interesting, nevertheless.

allthedoyles

The forecast today was for rain all day long here in the SE . - Its been dry since mid morning .

short range forecasting is not even possible it seems

Joe Public

allthedoyles wrote: »

The forecast today was for rain all day long here in the SE . - Its been dry since mid morning .

short range forecasting is not even possible it seems

33.9mm in Johnstown Castle yesterday, where were you?:)

allthedoyles

Joe Public wrote: »

33.9mm in Johnstown Castle yesterday, where were you?:)

Am about 20 miles from JC ............and 33.9mm did'nt happen where I am , but may have been few miles away .

This weather is so unpredicable , that no predictions are possible ...

Like yesterday yr.no said that we were finished with rain from 2pm - 7pm .

wrong completely ........massive downpours intermittently