Friday July 27

rossom

4.05 Ascot

Kangaroo Court 12/1 NAP

Am I missing something or is this the most ridiculously overpriced horse I've ever come across? I cannot fathom why he is 12/1 and I've had a big e/w as I'll be very surprised if he is out of the first three. A very talented chaser on his day reaching a peak rating of 142, Emma Lavelle's 8 year old gelding has only recently begun his flat career and has started rather promisingly landing 2 of his first 4 starts in this sphere. He made his debut on the AW at Lingfield in January over 12f and he won very impressively under a fine hold up ride from Micky Fenton to assert strongly at the finish to win going away. That race isn't really up to much but the authority which he surged to the front close home off a fast pace was very taking and it certainly looked as if he had a promising staying flat career ahead of him. A couple of moderate efforts in a bumper and over hurdles followed this victory before he made his handicap debut over 13f at Lingfield.

Kangaroo Court was rather disappointing on his handicap debut off a mark of 76 back in May but when analysing this race I definitely think the race wasn't run to suit and you can readily pass over it. They went slowly from the outset and it turned into a bit of a sprint towards the finish which didn't suit Kangaroo Court who was held up in last place as his stamina wasn't able to come into effect and it is definitely a race I'm completely ignoring. 8 days after this race he made his turf debut on the flat off the same mark at firm ground at Salisbury where a change of tactics proved ideal as he returned to the winners enclosure. Again under Fenton, that day Kangaroo Court made all over the 14f trip to land the Class 4 handicap in impressive style by 2.75L as he never once looked like getting caught. The form of that race looks good with the 3rd Monterey scoring off the same mark on his next start (Monterey would have finished closer to Kangaroo Court if he hadn't hung violently to the left) and it was a very good effort.

Kangaroo Court's final start came in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last month and although well beaten there are plenty of elements that lead me to overlook this race as well. Firstly, he may not have stayed the mammoth 2m6f trip on the flat. Secondly, he had to race just in behind the pace as Overturn made all and that probably wouldn't have suited and finally it was a Conditions race whereby he had to race against predominantly much higher rated horses off level weights. Moreover, I don't think the good to soft ground was ideal as his best efforts have come on a sounder surface. All four reasons I think are more than valid and I really don't think you could have expected him to play a role at the weights so I'm again ignoring that effort.

Today he returns to handicap company and has only been raised 4lb for his latest effort which I think is extremely lenient from the handicapper. He's back down to 2m and whilst its an unknown as to whether or not he will stay this far he certainly shaped as if he would when scoring over 1m6f. Although facing a much easier task then he tackled at Royal Ascot, this Class 2 handicap represents a more significant challenge then his last victory at Salisbury and he will definitely need to pull out more if he wants to win this. It will be very interesting to see what tactics are adopted today as he may be held up if stamina is a concern but I really hope front running tactics are adopted as he relished it at Salisbury and there doesn't appear to be any other horses in the race who adopt these tactics. The excellent William Buick is a very eye catching booking in my eyes and he's a jockey that is in the form of his life at present. Although up against a number unexposed and improving rivals, Kangaroo Court fits into that bracket with only 4 starts to date in his career and with the good to firm ground seeming ideal I think he's going to run a massive race and I've had a large e/w in the hopes he can land this.

rossom

4.40 Ascot

Love Your Looks 7/1 NB

I'm a big fan of progressive and consistent fillies and Mike Murphy's 4 year old Love Your Looks fits into this category. In her 6 starts in handicaps to date, she has finished in the top 2 on every occasion winning 3 times as her handicap mark has shot up from an initial mark of 57 to racing today off a mark of 87 but I certainly don't think she's finished her improvement and I expect her to go very close again today. I'm only going to delve into detail for her last two starts but for her other 4 handicap starts she won three impressively and the other she was beaten by half a length as she just couldn't reach the winner in time. She's been extremely unlucky in her last two starts as she has come out on the wrong side of a photograph on both occasions and she definitely deserves to come out on top today.

Two starts back off a mark of 80 she finished a very unlucky 2nd over 9f at Carlisle on good to firm ground back in May. After being held up off the pace, she travelled beautifully into the race under Graham Lee and when asked to challenge she was a bit all over the place as she hung a bit under pressure and she just couldn't get up in time to win. That day they went a steady pace which I don't think suited Love Your Looks at all and I think it was an excellent effort considering. The form of that Class 4 race looks fine as the winner scored again off a 3lb higher mark on her next start. For this effort she was raised 2lb to a mark of 82 as unfortunately the same fate as her previous race befell her as she again went down in a photograph. At Newmarket on similar ground, she was dropped back to 1m and upped in class as different tactics were employed in this race at the end of last month. Under Tony Culhane, Love Your Looks sat just on the quarters of the leader and again travelled well into her race before Culhane pushed her to the front with about 2.5f to go as she kicked a few lengths clear. I definitely think she idled out in front as the eventual winner Moone's My Name got about 3/4L ahead of her at the furlong pole before Love Your Looks rallied as she narrowly went down as the front two drew 4.75L clear of the 3rd. In hindsight, which is a beautiful thing, I am sure Culhane would have held onto her for a bit longer and if the race was rerun again I think Love Your Looks would have probably won.

The form of that race looks pretty strong with the 3rd Russian Rave going down by a head on his only subsequent start in a similar race whilst the 6th Tuscania ran an excellent race to be beaten by only half a length off a 2lb lower mark. Love Your Looks form could take a huge boost as the winner Moone's My Name contests a Listed race earlier on the card and although I'll be surprised if she's up to winning that she's been pretty well supported early on and regardless the fact the winner has is contesting a pattern class shows how well thought of Ralph Beckett's filly is. For her latest defeat, Love Your Looks has been upped 5lb to a career high mark of 87 but its hardly surprising given that the front two forged well clear of the remained. She's upped to 10f which I don't think she'll have any problem with and she faces the same good to firm conditions as her last two races. Martin Dwyer takes over in the saddle for the first time and I'm guessing his instructions will be to play her late and not to hit the front too early. She's again upped in grade to a Class 2 and off a mark of 87 its going to take a career best to land this but she's clearly still progressing and in great heart at present and if the dead 8 go to post then I think the current 7/1 on offer looks a very solid e/w proposition but I really hope she gets a change of luck and can land this event.

rossom

8.45 Newmarket

Green Mitas 20/1

Going to keep this one short enough but if getting the tactical ride I think Green Mitas could go very close to landing this 1m handicap. I'm ignoring his last effort which I think came on unsuitably soft ground but if replicating the form of his 3rd 2 starts ago at Chester then I think he could be very hard to beat. Although 0-8 to date, this 3 YO's career only started back in February and he has shown a bit of promise to date with probably his best effort coming on handicap debut at Wolverhampton off a mark of 65 back in April. Undoubtedly his best turf effort came two starts back on good ground at the end of June when going down by a 1.75L beaten 3rd when sent off a 50/1 shot off a mark of 59. Over the extended 10f trip, Ian Burns kicked Green Mitas for home with a little over 2f to and I think stamina just got the better of him late on as he finished a tired but very respectable 3rd. The form of that race looks rather strong with the 2nd and 6th winning on their next starts (winner hasn't reappeared) and in hindsight it was a really likeable effort. He was stepped back to 7f for his last start on unsuitable ground and I think he goes back up to an ideal 1m trip if given a similarly enterprising ride today again off a mark of 59. What I hope happens is either Green Mitas tries to make all or he is kicked on from the front with a couple of furlongs to go to try and use his (slightly) extra stamina to fend off his rivals. Mirco Demuro is an eye catching booking for the Frank Sheridan yard and is 2-9 for the yard this year and I find him to be a jockey who is particularly adept at using these tactics. I don't see any reason why Green Mitas can't reproduce his effort from 2 starts ago and if he does I think he could be very difficult to peg back for a trainer who has already had a 50/1 and 25/1 winner this year.

dchris

Lot of money for this horse. It's now 11/1 .

rossom wrote: »

8.45 Newmarket

Green Mitas 20/1

Going to keep this one short enough but if getting the tactical ride I think Green Mitas could go very close to landing this 1m handicap. I'm ignoring his last effort which I think came on unsuitably soft ground but if replicating the form of his 3rd 2 starts ago at Chester then I think he could be very hard to beat. Although 0-8 to date, this 3 YO's career only started back in February and he has shown a bit of promise to date with probably his best effort coming on handicap debut at Wolverhampton off a mark of 65 back in April. Undoubtedly his best turf effort came two starts back on good ground at the end of June when going down by a 1.75L beaten 3rd when sent off a 50/1 shot off a mark of 59. Over the extended 10f trip, Ian Burns kicked Green Mitas for home with a little over 2f to and I think stamina just got the better of him late on as he finished a tired but very respectable 3rd. The form of that race looks rather strong with the 2nd and 6th winning on their next starts (winner hasn't reappeared) and in hindsight it was a really likeable effort. He was stepped back to 7f for his last start on unsuitable ground and I think he goes back up to an ideal 1m trip if given a similarly enterprising ride today again off a mark of 59. What I hope happens is either Green Mitas tries to make all or he is kicked on from the front with a couple of furlongs to go to try and use his (slightly) extra stamina to fend off his rivals. Mirco Demuro is an eye catching booking for the Frank Sheridan yard and is 2-9 for the yard this year and I find him to be a jockey who is particularly adept at using these tactics. I don't see any reason why Green Mitas can't reproduce his effort from 2 starts ago and if he does I think he could be very difficult to peg back for a trainer who has already had a 50/1 and 25/1 winner this year.

BQQ

Hugh Taylor stealing your selections now Rossom :P:pac:

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=524086&lid=&raceid=&title=Hugh+Taylor&ref=atrNav+-+Tips+and+Analysis&nav=tips&sub=&day=

rossom

BQQ wrote: »

Hugh Taylor stealing your selections now Rossom :P:pac:

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=524086&lid=&raceid=&title=Hugh+Taylor&ref=atrNav+-+Tips+and+Analysis&nav=tips&sub=&day=

It wouldn't be the first time!

rossom

8.10 Newmarket

Hong Kong Island 9/1

If over looking his last rare poor effort which may have been down to the ground, then I think for Micky Hammond's 5 year old should go very close to landing this. He was very progressive last year as his handicap jumped 20lb to a mark of 86 between the first and last starts of the year. In that time, he won twice and barring his reappearance run he was never beaten by more than 3.75L in 11 starts which emphasises just how consistent he is. He had some very solid form last year including a neck defeat off a mark of 83 behind Berling who was an impressive winner on his next start and 1.5L beaten 4th off a mark of 86 where the 2nd performed very admirably in Listed races in his two subsequent starts. This year his first two starts were solid if not fantastic as he was beaten by 4.5L and 5.25L respectively but he put in an excellent effort 2 starts back when narrowly going down by 0.75L.

In the Class 3 Queen Mother's cup for amateur lady riders off a mark of 81, he was a bit unlucky as the winner Crackentorp, who won the same race the year before, got first run on him. Furthermore, Hong Kong Island came widest of all on ground that was probably slower and it was a really good effort. Although the form of these Ladies Amateur races is a bit questionable, the winner Crackentorp franked the form by finishing an excellent 2nd in the Northumberland Plate off a 5lb higher mark and on the basis of that evidence I think he can definitely be very competitive off this mark.He was raised to a mark of 84 but based on some of his efforts last year I definitely think he is able to score off a mark like this. Moreover, given the fact he was so progressive last year I certainly think he has improvement left in him being only a 5 year old. His last start was a bit of a no show and although his effort behind Crackentorp was on soft ground I don't think it really suited on his last start and although not easy to do I'm overlooking that effort. Today he returns to fast ground which should definitely suit and off the same mark I think he should be competitive under Freddie Tylicki who is 1-1 on him. With Micky Hammond in good form, I'm expecting a much improved performance today and I think he can definitely go close to landing this event.

longshotvalue

17:15 Ascot

Rowe Park is a risky enough bet given his recent form but when i look back this year his second last run back of a break was in fact decent enough given how the form of the race has turns out. He is obviously not a patch on what he was but he wouldn’t need to be to have a small chance here. He won a similar race here 2 years ago of a 20lbs higher mark, and although it looked very poor last time out he did get left at the start. He also has looked a bit uninterested in the last year and the application of blinkers here might just waken him up. At his current price on Betfair of 50 hes worth a small shot.


½ Point win ½ Point win Place Betfair 50/10.5

18:30 York

Eland Ally is a relatively unexposed horse compared to the rest of this field, and has a few very decent runs last year given his handicap rating of only 79. He had a superb 2nd in a similar race at Doncaster at the end of last year off 2lbs higher, and although he had a few poor runs since, including his first run back this year last time out, he did give the impression that he will improve for that run. He clearly has a very decent shot of that mark if back to form and is worth a small risk at a huge 50 on Betfair. There is a step up in trip to think about but the way he travelled in that Doncaster race and finished it would seem to be an advantage.


1 Point win 50 Betfair

rossom

Don't know what happened there with Kangaroo Court. Buick seemed to ease him very quickly. Bit perplexed

mike65

BQQ wrote: »

Hugh Taylor stealing your selections now Rossom :P:pac:

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=524086&lid=&raceid=&title=Hugh+Taylor&ref=atrNav+-+Tips+and+Analysis&nav=tips&sub=&day=

Poor old Hugh was scoring at a good nice rate until early June, very few wins since (though one of them was a 33/1 advised)

ft9

rossom wrote: »

Don't know what happened there with Kangaroo Court. Buick seemed to ease him very quickly. Bit perplexed

When he quickened up he really stretched them, I thought you were on a winner at that point. Seemed to slow the pace and pulled up once under pressure, must be something amiss.

rossom

I wish Love Your Looks was dropped out the back. She was too keen early on so Dwyer sent her on. Cracking effort under the circumstances

mike65

Going to take a punt on two against the field York 18.30, 20 runner race so 4 spots to play for,

Toby Tyler has tended to pop up at a nice prices, seems to go on any ground and has his most frequent jockey Micky Fenton on board.

While Barkston Ash is in pretty good nick and deffo goes on good to firm.

and a reverse forecast!

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

17:15 Ascot

Rowe Park is a risky enough bet given his recent form but when i look back this year his second last run back of a break was in fact decent enough given how the form of the race has turns out. He is obviously not a patch on what he was but he wouldn’t need to be to have a small chance here. He won a similar race here 2 years ago of a 20lbs higher mark, and although it looked very poor last time out he did get left at the start. He also has looked a bit uninterested in the last year and the application of blinkers here might just waken him up. At his current price on Betfair of 50 hes worth a small shot.


½ Point win ½ Point win Place Betfair 50/10.5

18:30 York

Eland Ally is a relatively unexposed horse compared to the rest of this field, and has a few very decent runs last year given his handicap rating of only 79. He had a superb 2nd in a similar race at Doncaster at the end of last year off 2lbs higher, and although he had a few poor runs since, including his first run back this year last time out, he did give the impression that he will improve for that run. He clearly has a very decent shot of that mark if back to form and is worth a small risk at a huge 50 on Betfair. There is a step up in trip to think about but the way he travelled in that Doncaster race and finished it would seem to be an advantage.


1 Point win 50 Betfair

Rowe Park 3rd ... Eland to place hopefully for a nice ew Double

ft9

Connections fancy Akinspirit in Wexford at 6.35. 4/1 is available at the minute. He has his ground.

ft9

Green Mitas is a non runner now.

rossom

ft9 wrote: »

Green Mitas is a non runner now.

Probably pissed of Taylor tipped it up

ft9

rossom wrote: »

Probably pissed of Taylor tipped it up

My thoughts exactly, one for next time out.