Tuesday 17th July

rossom

3.30 Beverley

Christmas Light 16/1

This 5 year old mare looks exactly the type of horse that new trainer Brian Ellison will excel with and after her recent reappearance run I think she could be primed for a big run today. Previously with David O'Meara, in the height of her career she put in some good performances off marks of 77 and 78 in 2010 with the last of her two career wins coming off a mark of 68 last year at Redcar. She's now back down to a mark of 65 and when taking into account her previous efforts and that she is now 3lb below her last winning mark I think she looks well enough weighted to strike. 3 days ago she made her reappearance run after a 9 month break on heavy ground that wouldn't have suited too much and I thought she put in a very encouraging effort to finish a 4.25L beaten 5th in a Class 5 handicap. She's always needed a run to get her back up to speed and I was more than satisfied with her first run for her new trainer. The form of that race looks rather strong with the 2nd Master of Dance winning well today eased in grade off the same mark. Moreover, the winner Collateral Damage is a very well handicapped horse who I am sure will run up a sequence now securing his first win in quite a while.

Although upped in class today off the same mark, I think Christmas Light will come on a lot for her latest effort and should strip fitter today. Furthermore, the current good ground will suit much more and should bring about further improvement. Given Beverley is certainly a venue where course form is very important, her 1L and 2.75L defeats at the track in her two previous visits definitely demonstrate she goes well enough at the track. Graham Lee is an interesting booking for the yard and it will represent only his 3rd ride for Ellison (his 2nd will come in the 2.30) and he has made an extremely good transition to flat racing recently. I'm convinced Ellison will be able to revitalise her career which he has been so adept at doing with similar horses who had lost their way. I think its also interesting that her previous owner hasn't sold her and she obviously thinks there is more to come from her. With a good draw in stall 4, if this race doesn't come too soon after her first start in 9 months then I envisage a big run at a big price and hopefully she can resume winning ways to continue the good form of her stable.

I'll also be playing the RFC with fellow 16/1 shot Stylistickhill who hails from the in form Scott Dixon yard. An unexposed 4 year old, this filly doesn't like her mark of 60 is the ceiling and she too should improve for her recent reappearance run. Mirco Demero takes the ride (his only at the track) and is currently 1-1 for the yard.

rossom

2.30 Beverley

Bogsnog 80/1

More than likely going to be tailed off but I think Linda Stubbs 2 year old is worth a small play at a huge price. On debut he finished a distant last of 10 but he broke slowly and was rather green that day at Kempton. However, he didn't seem completely devoid of talent and I think he'll come on a lot for that experience. The two main reasons I'm having a small play on him are that his trainer is in good form at present and she has a 23% strike rate with 2 YOs at Beverley, with this representing her only runner of the day. Tom Eaves takes the ride and has an 18% strike rate when riding Stubbs' 2 year old and although its asking a lot I'm playing small stakes at 80/1.

ft9

rossom wrote: »

2.30 Beverley

Bogsnog 80/1

More than likely going to be tailed off but I think Linda Stubbs 2 year old is worth a small play at a huge price. On debut he finished a distant last of 10 but he broke slowly and was rather green that day at Kempton. However, he didn't seem completely devoid of talent and I think he'll come on a lot for that experience. The two main reasons I'm having a small play on him are that his trainer is in good form at present and she has a 23% strike rate with 2 YOs at Beverley, with this representing her only runner of the day. Tom Eaves takes the ride and has an 18% strike rate when riding Stubbs' 2 year old and although its asking a lot I'm playing small stakes at 80/1.

WOW! So close. 2nd by a length.

jkelly85

Unreal.... I nearly had a heart attack had 5 euro at 160/1 and 5 at 24/1 to be place on betfair

Great tipping again

ft9

jkelly85 wrote: »

Unreal.... I nearly had a heart attack had 5 euro at 160/1 and 5 at 24/1 to be place on betfair

Great tipping again

Some difference with Betfair for the outsiders. I had €1 ew 66/1 PaddyPower.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

2.30 Beverley

Bogsnog 80/1

More than likely going to be tailed off but I think Linda Stubbs 2 year old is worth a small play at a huge price. On debut he finished a distant last of 10 but he broke slowly and was rather green that day at Kempton. However, he didn't seem completely devoid of talent and I think he'll come on a lot for that experience. The two main reasons I'm having a small play on him are that his trainer is in good form at present and she has a 23% strike rate with 2 YOs at Beverley, with this representing her only runner of the day. Tom Eaves takes the ride and has an 18% strike rate when riding Stubbs' 2 year old and although its asking a lot I'm playing small stakes at 80/1.

He ran an absolute belter to finish 2nd!

ft9

Winnings roll onto Christmas Light.

FANTAPANTS

ft9 wrote: »

Winnings roll onto Christmas Light.

drifting out from 7/1 got it at 12/1 this morning

ft9

Lost by a head?

rossom

ft9 wrote: »

Lost by a head?

Short Head. Absolutely gutting

Slattsy

Great tipping man, class stuff. Should have won.

FANTAPANTS

yeah great tipping. Got word yeaterday on Instant Impact in the 8:10 Killarney

Mocha Joe

FANTAPANTS wrote: »

yeah great tipping. Got word yeaterday on Instant Impact in the 8:10 Killarney

3/1 fav. Hardly a tip.

Great run by Christmas Lights.

FANTAPANTS

Mocha Joe wrote: »

3/1 fav. Hardly a tip.

Great run by Christmas Lights.

All tips are not massive prices mate!!!! :rolleyes:

Mocha Joe

It's the price it should be. It's not a tip. Fancied everywhere you look which is why it's fav.

FANTAPANTS

Mocha Joe wrote: »

It's the price it should be. It's not a tip. Fancied everywhere you look which is why it's fav.

FAV dont always win

rossom

4.30 Beverley

Wolf Spirit 33/1

Annoying only 2 places paid but rather liking the look of Ruth Carr's 3 year old who I think its a ridiculous price. Formerly with Kevin Ryan, Wolf Spirit won on her first start as a 3 year old and indeed debut for her current stable when winning over a mile at Redcar on good to firm ground in April off a mark of 63. That race has worked out well with the 2nd Nameitwhatyoulike winning off a 3lb higher mark on his next start. Since then, Wolf Spirt has been beaten by double figure margins on his subsequent 5 starts. However, 4 of these had soft in the description and his effort 2 starts back on good ground was more promising than the bare result suggests as he shaped well before perhaps not getting home over the 12f trip. As a result of these disappointing performances, Wolf Spirit's handicap mark has fallen to a mark of 60 quite quickly and given he is 3lb below his last win which was only 3 months ago I think he is both hugely overpriced and well handicapped. I think its very interesting also that Wolf Spirit gets good to firm ground for the first time since his win which is an obvious bonus. The drop back to 7.5f is interesting and with trainer Ruth Carr in blistering form at present I think Wolf Spirit can run very well with his 3 YO allowance and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he returns to the winners enclosure at a huge price.

Mocha Joe

FANTAPANTS wrote: »

FAV dont always win

Neither do tips.

UrbanSea

Mocha Joe wrote: »

FANTAPANTS wrote: »

yeah great tipping. Got word yeaterday on Instant Impact in the 8:10 Killarney

3/1 fav. Hardly a tip.

Great run by Christmas Lights.

It is possible to get a tip for a favorite you know

chipsdave

Didnt come on here yesterday ,so a belated great tipping to Rossom ,watched the races there and Christmas lights esp should have won , anyone with an e-w double would have had place odds of 47.28-1 at sp odds. Not bad !