King George and QE Stakes 2012.

tryfix

It's shaping up to be the most competitive King George in years.



St Nicholas Abbey. 2 Coronation cups wins and a Breeders Cup Turf winner. 3rd last year and favourite this year. A top horse but I don't fancy him at the price.

Nathaniel. Last years winner showed be was better than ever when taking this years Eclipse. Could start favourite and the most likely winner although this race comes very soon after the Eclipse.

Sea Moon. Looked a real star last year before flopping when favourite for the Leger, bounced back with a second to St Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders Cup Turf and showed he handled the course and likely soft ground in the Hardwicke. He looks a typical Micheal Stoute improving older horse, but it's a very hot race this year.

Dunaden . Last years globetrotting Melbourne Cup winner and 2nd in the Hardwicke to Sea Moon. Will have his followers but shouldn't be good enough at this level.

Danedream. Last years record breaking Arc winner is 10/1 in places, she's decent value.

Deep Brillante. This years Japan Derby winner has the 3 yo weight advantage and they aren't sending him halfway around the world for the fun of it. I've taken the 20/1 about him but that was when I thought the race would cut up. Now I'm longer that confident about him.

Reliable Man. Last years Prix du Jockey club winner, doesn't looked good enough to take this, but he's not a no hoper.

Brown Panther. One time hype horse who's never shown anything remotely like the form needed at this level.

Shareta. 2nd in the Arc and has plenty of GP 1 form, could place at a big price.

Masked Marvel. Last years Leger winner has gradually being coming back to form, this is a bit out of his league.

Pacemakers, Windsor Palace and Robin Hood complete the field.

tryfix

tryfix wrote: »

...............


St Nicholas Abbey................
Nathaniel.............................
Sea Moon..........................
..

Given the likely conditions I reckon all 3 of them are priced about right, if anyone really fancies any one of them 5/2 or 3/1 might seem ok, I can't really make a HUGE case for any of them.

tryfix wrote: »

....
Brown Panther. One time hype horse who's never shown anything remotely like the form needed at this level..................

.... at the price I sort of like this one :pac:

UrbanSea

I think Sea Moon will be found out by top group 1 horses, St Nic beat him cosily in the BC. I think Nathaniel will be hard to beat, but I'd like to see St Nic win it,though his run in this last year was disappointing

Goldcupfav

Cant have SNA for this race at all. Since his 2yo days all his most disappointing runs have come on right handed tracks. Curragh x 2, Ascot and Longchamp. Worry about Nathaniel is that this race is so soon after the Eclipse. He put in such a performance in that race that i cant see him recovering in time for this. Sea Moon's win at Ascot was impressive and looks to have improved from 3-4. Ground should be perfect for Sea Moon as his two best performances have come with ease in the ground (Hardwicke LTO and Great Voltigeur). He looks my idea of the winner. Dunaden was unlucky in the Hardwicke having been checked a few times when making his run and finished full of running. If they go fast enough early he should be placed at least. Danedream could be the value in the race though. She was well beaten in France the last day but her trainer has said that she needs a bigger field and a stronger pace to run at she will get that on Saturday 10/1 about her now does look a big price if you can forgive her run LTO. Reliable Man could improve for the step back up in trip but will need to to win this one. Dont know much about the Japanese horse and cant give anything else any hope of winning.

Nice write up by the way Tryfix. Good to have a thread on this race so early in the week instead of the night before or morning of the race.

dave3004

I'll be following last year's Arc form for my betting guide for this.

Will be backing Danedream & Dunaden each way and backing Shareta to place.

Lot of one time hype horses in here.

TheMilkyPirate

Will be having a decent sized bet on Nathaniel come wage day.

newuser89

I think nathaniel is the most likely winner
If the ground was as bad as at Newmarket Saturday I think brown panther would have a great chance
He lives for muck
If the ground was in anyway firm I would fancy st nic
But at present it's in nathaniels favour
1st nathaniel
2nd st nic
3rd sea moon

UrbanSea

St Nic a big drift out to 4/1 on BF with every bookie but the brilliant Ladbrokes pushing him out, he is as high as 100/30 but Ladbrokes who love to stand out remain 2/1. Way to stand out for all the right reasons

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

St Nic a big drift out to 4/1 on BF with every bookie but the brilliant Ladbrokes pushing him out, he is as high as 100/30 but Ladbrokes who love to stand out remain 2/1. Way to stand out for all the right reasons

They are 11/4 about him now and 3/1 about Nathaniel and Sea Moon. That 3/1 about Nathaniel looks like it won't last too long, he looked like a really impressive physical specimen the last day. The race is tailor made for both Nathaniel and Sea Moon, two horses that have shown they're suited by course, distance and ground conditions. The rest of them including SNA have it all to do against them.

Brianderunner

Heading out to Ascot Saturday. I'm a little disappointed with the race tbh, no real champions in it. But the King George isnt the race it once was.

You'd have to fancy Nathaniel if he's recovered from his tough race in Sandown.

klairondavis

It looks a good renewal to me. No real superstars in the line up but some genuine top quality group 1 animals like SNA, Nathaniel, Danedream and some potentially unexposed horses at this level like Sea Moon and the Japanese horse.

If Nathaniel is over his run in the Eclipse then I'd fancy he'll take it.

allthedoyles

Re-runs on attheraces at the moment Channel 415

Nulty

allthedoyles wrote: »

Re-runs on attheraces at the moment Channel 415

Didn't get to watch them but I'm going on to their site to watch replays of the race now. Nothing like nostagia to get you geared up for the event!

Nulty

Golan - 2002

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oxYiTyu6cE

Alamshar - 2003

Doyen - 2004

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n75a2S44xc

Azamour - 2005

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qzNfccIdaM

Hurricane Run - 2006

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLLexFDnnks

Dylan Thoman - 2007

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CF95GpLNUU

Duke Of Marmalade - 2008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6q3u-KT4SK4

Conduit - 2009

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHJXVk4-dgk

Harbinger - 2010

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo7pEsp2WKc

Nathaniel - 2011

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02E3EWCAc5w

Got the best quality I could find

swimming in a sea

It seems a wide open race, but one thing for sure its unmissable, it must be the highest quality race outside of the arc in years.

Can't wait for it, probably be the best sporting moment in the London area in the next three weeks:D

getonmyhorse

At 3/1 ill be on nic

3ndahalfof6

Would there be any particular reason no horse has won it twice in the last 10 years, and how does this effect Nathaniel's chances?

tryfix

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Would there be any particular reason no horse has won it twice in the last 10 years, and how does this effect Nathaniel's chances?

They usually don't try to repeat the feat and head to stud at the end of their winning year. The only two to try it recent times were Swain and Doyen both owned by Godolphin who aren't the most commercially minded of owners. Swain won it twice and Doyen was gone off the boil after his first win.

The only 3yo in the last 60 years to win it and repeat the task as a 4 yo was Dahlia. She was probably the only one to even try it, so the stats are considerably better for Nathaniel than they seem at first. They are also good for Danedream as previous Arc winners have a good record in the race.

Harry Angstrom

Slightly interesting stat:

In the 6 runnings of the King George since the Ascot track was relaid, 4 of the 6 winners had their previous run at Royal Ascot with 3 of them winning; Nathaniel (King Edward VII), Harbinger (Hardwicke Stakes) and Duke Of Marmalade (Prince Of Wales's Stakes). The other King George winner Dylan Thomas had run a cracker to finish 2nd to Manduro in the Prince of Wales's.

Just going by this statistic, Sea Moon is the likeliest winner tomorow

jobeenfitz

I think this could be a very close race between nathaniel and sea moon. I prefer nathaniel. Im told that paddy power will refund stake if horse is second to nathaniel. It could be worth be worth a bet on both nathaniel and sea moon because of the money back offer? there is a line of form as both of these horses have raced against st nicholas abbey. The downside to nathaniel is that it is only 14 days since he won on his seasonal debut. Any opinions? 4.35 Ascot

ft9

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056703284

jobeenfitz

thanks ft9, I'm new at this.

jobeenfitz

I fancy Nathaniel myself. If anybody fancies sea moon or any horse bar nathaniel
Paddy Power is refunding your stake if your horse is 2nd to nathaniel.

3ndahalfof6

I am going to fire a few squid at Sea Moon and I will have a decent EW bet on Deep Brillante.

jobeenfitz

that money back offer if your horse is 2nd to nathaniel is only an online offer. I just found out when I went to paddy power office. Sorry about that.

the realpigiron

Going for sea moon here, very open race.

Shane732

Oh no the talk about JOB will begin....

aidan24326

Shane732 wrote: »

Oh no the talk about JOB will begin....

But what the hell was he doing? Ok they obviously told him to wait with the horse and be patient but that doesn't mean giving the leaders 10 lengths and completely blowing your chance. He flew home but was given far too much to do.

hucklebuck

Baffling how Danedream was so big but happy with it

O Brien left it far too late going for St Nic.

Shane732

aidan24326 wrote: »

But what the hell was he doing? Ok they obviously told him to wait with the horse and be patient but that doesn't mean giving the leaders 10 lengths and completely blowing your chance. He flew home but was given far too much to do.

I'm sure he rode to orders. Sit off the pace and press go coming into the straight.

Yes, he sat too far back.

The tactics were wrong to think you could sit that far back and beat a field like that.

Sea Moon suffered from the same poor tactics.

Personally I think he would have won that race if he'd tracked Nathenial and beaten him for pace off the turn.

the realpigiron

aidan24326 wrote: »

But what the hell was he doing? Ok they obviously told him to wait with the horse and be patient but that doesn't mean giving the leaders 10 lengths and completely blowing your chance. He flew home but was given far too much to do.

Same can be said for sea moon's jockey.

Nulty

Great race all the same. Jockeys made some errors. Peslier stopped riding fractionally before the line which may have cost me ew. I'm happy Danedream won.

kksaints

Odd to see an Arc winner go off at 9/1 for a race even one as classy as this one was.

aidan24326

Shane732 wrote: »

Sea Moon suffered from the same poor tactics.

Personally I think he would have won that race if he'd tracked Nathenial and beaten him for pace off the turn.

the realpigiron wrote: »

Same can be said for sea moon's jockey.

I agree O'Brien and Moore both fcuked up. It's fine to sit out the back and wait if the horses up front are horses you know you can pick off comfortably enough but this was an Arc winner and the reigning King George and Eclipse champ so you're not gonna get away with giving horses of that quality such a lead.

I also think that SNA would have won if he sat a little closer to the pace, he was flying at the finish and must have made up about 6 or 7 lengths in the last furlong and a half. Moore's ride was arguably worse than JOB as he never put Sea Moon in the race at all.

Nulty

Danedream for the Arc anyone? She's clearly the best in europe of the older generation. Would St. Nic beat her at Longchamp?

dave3004

dave3004 wrote: »

I'll be following last year's Arc form for my betting guide for this.

Will be backing Danedream & Dunaden each way and backing Shareta to place.

Lot of one time hype horses in here.

Went out on Friday night and returned to my apt on Sunday. It was a crazy expensive weekend and this race never crossed my mind once. Could have won a nice few quid on Danedream :mad:

tryfix

Nulty wrote: »

Danedream for the Arc anyone? She's clearly the best in europe of the older generation. Would St. Nic beat her at Longchamp?

St Nic is probably just a few pounds short of what it takes to win an Arc. Danedream has proven herself to be good enough to win it again by winning the King George this year.

Nathaniel is good enough to go close but Gosdens horses are on a red hot streak at the moment. There're enough reasons to be sceptical about that streak continuing until Arc Day. His poor run last Autumn in the Champion stakes after a fair break last year makes me think he might be a summer horse. I would love to see Nathaniel have his prep race for the Arc in the Irish Champion Stakes.

One of the 3 yo crop will most likely win it although it's hard to say which one at this stage. I'll be having a bet on the 4 yo Japanese horse Orfevre, they've booked Soumilllon to ride and if anyone can get this Japanese Dancing Brave type to win the Arc it's him.