Wednesday 27th June

rossom

9.20 Kempton

Ezdeyaad 8/1

Price already collapsing so write up to come later.

rossom

3.30 Carlisle

Miami Gator 11/1

4.05 Carlisle

Hong Kong Island 14/1

Same story

mike65

Dang I was looking at Solar Spirit in the Carlisle 3.30 and Dark Dune (prob too soft and drawn in 1 box) in the 4.00. Oh well!

edit - HK Island has halved in price - 7.50! Is it a PW pick wonder or is it the rossom effect? Gone for Mica Mika instead.

dj-kyosho

Good Feeling About 4.35 Carlisle Dolly Royal 25/1 only a small e/w bet although.

rossom

9.20 Kempton

Ezdeyaad 8/1 NAP

Very confident of a very big showing from Ed Walker's 8 year old who I think should go extremely close to landing this 1m class 4 event. After being campaigned in claimers towards the back end of last season after seemingly losing his way, he certainly looks a resurgent force on the basis of his last run and I think that he will strip fitter for that effort. On the basis on some of his efforts last year, he looks very well handicapped and although winless on the AW he has put up some efforts off higher marks to lead me to believe that he is just as effective on this surface and that it won't be very long for him to be making his mark. After a very progressive season in 2010 which saw him win 4 races from 5 starts, his handicap mark rocketed from a mark of 79 to 94 and in his peak he was a really talented animal. After the large hike in the weights, the handicapper seemed to have Ezdeyaad's number as his last 4 starts of the 2010 season were poor as he was probably handicapped to the hilt. However after a break he seemed to bounce back to form in 2011.

After making a reappearance run, Ezdeyaad ran a cracking 0.75L beaten 4th at Lingfield over 1m in a Class 3 handicap off a mark of 88 last February. That day he hit the front with about 1.5f to go and he was swamped very late on by a bunch of fast finishers and he was eventually run out of the money. The form of that race is quite strong with the winner finishing a narrowly beaten 2nd in a Listed contest on his next start. In the context of this race, it was an excellent effort and makes todays handicap mark of 79 extremely manageable. After a couple of poor starts on turf, he ran a good race to be a 3L beaten 6th in a hot handicap at Newmarket and showed he was still in good order when landing a 7f event at Folkestone last May off a mark of 85. After occupying his traditional sit behind the leaders, Ezdeyaad had to be pushed along for the final couple of furlongs and he just about got up on the line under Jack Mitchell to win by a head. The form of that race is solid with the 3rd putting in a very good 0.5L beaten 2nd on his next start and it showed Ezdeyaad's battling quality. Ezdeyaad had 5 more starts after this win last year with the last 3 in claimers and I think a busy campaign may have caught up with him towards the end of the season. However, his handicap fell as a result of that and after a reappearance run in April this gelding ran an excellent race LTO.

Earlier this month, Ezdeyaad ran an excellent 0.75L beaten 3rd at the course over 7f off a mark of 77 and it definitely showed he has a lot of ability and verve for racing left in him. After sitting in behind the leaders, Ezdeyaad came there absolutely cantering all over the leaders and the button was pushed just over a furlong out as he hit the front. However, he didn't really pick up in the manner I expected him to as two rivals passed him but it certainly was a very good effort. Although the form of that race is yet to be tested, the two in front of him seemed to be progressive and I think it was a very solid effort. Moreover, after analysing a lot of his previous races I really think that he is going to come on a lot from the run. Ezdeyaad isn't the sort of horse you'd associate as a strong traveller and he certainly picks up well when driven as demonstrated by his last success. Thus I certainly feel that run will have brought him on quite a bit and I expect to see him finish off his race tonight much better. He has been raised to a mark of 79 for his latest 3rd but he is still very well handicapped judged on his win off 85 and his effort at Lingfield off a mark of 88. Talented apprentice Michael Murphy takes over the reigns today and he takes off an extremely valuable 7lb on what is his only ride of the night as he is upped an extra furlong to 1m. Trainer Ed Walker couldn't be in better form right now with 5 of his last 9 runners winning and this represents his only engagement of the night. With the perfect draw in stall 1 which should allow him to grab a place on the rail, I'm very confident of a massive showing from this 8 year old gelding and I think he's going to prove extremely difficult to beat.

rossom

3.30 Carlisle

Miami Gator 11/1

Although it seems very likely that he'll be taken on for the lead which isn't ideal, I think last years winner of this race who won last week when I put him up at 25/1 is certainly worth a bet. On his last start he came home a very impressive winner at Hamilton under a fantastic ride under todays 7lb claimer Conor Harrison and now he's rediscovered the winning trend I think he could be very difficult to pen back today at a course he loves. In his 6 previous visits over C+D, he boasts a tremendous record of 3 victories a short head 2nd and a 1L beaten 4th and is clear he goes extremely well here which is a massive bonus at a track where course form is extremely important. Furthermore, I think todays ground should improve his chances as he's an out and out galloper who does not shirk in a battle and I think these qualities should hopefully see him very difficult to beat in his front running style.

Last year, Miami Gator started off his 4 year old campaign on the back of a busy winter and on his first start of 2011 he put up an excellent effort at Lingfield over 1m last January when finishing a 1L beaten 3rd off a mark of 79. After attempting to make all, Miami Gator was collared in the final strides by two rivals as he ended up being beaten by only 1L. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner running well off 4lb higher marks subsequently, the 2nd Ocean Legend won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts afterwards and the 4th Wilfred Pickles won 2 of his subsequent 3 starts. After running only ok in a couple of claimers over in France, Miami Gator ran a cracking race when finishing a 1L beaten 4th at the course last May off a mark of 78. After adopting his typical front running style, he was clear of the pursuers until about the final half furlong where 3 of his rivals swamped him at the finish and went past. It was a very solid effort, and Miami Gator would have his revenge a month later.

In the corresponding race last year, Miami Gator took on two of the three rivals who had beaten him the month prior off the same mark of 78 but he turned the tables with them as he landed the Class 4 event in fine style when scoring by 1.75L. In traditional front running fashion, he was joined and indeed headed by the eventual second Vito Volterra with about 2f to go but he battled back gamely to get on top of that rival to land the race impressively. The form of that race couldn't be any stronger. The 2nd and 3rd both won on their next starts off the same mark whilst the 3rd Take it to the Max is now 16lb higher than he was that day so its clear he beat some in form rivals impressively that day. After being raised 8lb for this win, he put in an ok effort at York before getting back on the winning track when landing a claimer at Sandown last July. Although he was worse off at the weights with the 2nd and 3rd, its hard to evaluate that form and I think its best not to look into it too much, although the handicapper did raise him to a mark of 89 after that effort.

Miami Gator's final start as a 4 year old came last September where he was pretty disappointing at Ayr. After taking the winter off, Miami Gator has had 3 starts this year including two over in France in claimers before arriving back at todays C+D. That day he wasn't at his best but he still put in a very solid effort to finish a 6.5L. In the early part of this year he wasn't really at his best but considering it was the first time since 2009 that he had more than a 2 month break I think he would have needed these 4 runs to get back to full fitness. On his last start he demonstrated that he was back to his best when landing a 1m Class 4 event at Hamilton last week in fine style off a mark of 77. In traditional fashion, Miami Gator made all and Conor Harrison had to be at his best as he needed to scrub along this 5 year old from about 3f out (always races like this). He galloped on excellently and he never ever looked like getting headed as he went on to score by 0.5L, but I think he'd have pulled out a little more if he needed to. I think its very telling to note that he turned the tables wit I'm Super Too, who had finished in front of at Carlisle on his previous start, which I think validates my claim that he's only just after reaching peak fitness. I think its also very interesting to note that Harrison said after the race that "we were worried about the quick ground when we walked the track before racing" (good, good to firm in places) so I'm slightly upgrading that effort.

As a result of that win, Miami Gator has to carry a 6lb penalty and races off an effective mark of 83. Its clear he's going to have to produce a career best effort to land this but I certainly think once he hits the winning trend he is very difficult animal to beat. He's encountering completely different ground than he faced last time with the going currently soft but he has won on soft ground before so it is absolutely no concern to me whatsoever. He won this race last year in fine style off a mark of 78 and if replicating that effort I think he could prove very difficult to beat. Conor Harrison, who couldn't have given him a better ride last time, keeps the ride and his 7lb claim (allowing him to race off effectively 76) should be a big help. He has good early speed which should allow him to get what looks like it could be quite a competitive battle for the front but I think he'll definitely be quick enough out of his sit in stall 8 to at least get a share of the lead. Although its going to take a career best effort, he's found the winning grove as he returns to a track he loves. If Harrison sets his fractions right from the front, I think he could prove very difficult to pass and I definitely think he can land the Carlisle Bell for the second year running.

dodzy

Jeez Rossom, you must really fancy him;)

rossom

Miami Gator folded way too tamely there. You've got to ignore that as I something may not have been right

rossom

4.05 Carlisle

Hong Kong Island 14/1

If Lexi's Boy translates his improvement over hurdles to the flat then he could prove incredibly hard to beat but there are far to many 'Ifs' to be backing him at his short price so I'm plumping for Micky Hammond's 5 year old who I think should go very close to landing this. He was very progressive last year as his handicap jumped 20lb to a mark of 86 between the first and last starts of the year. In that time, he won twice and barring his reappearance run he was never beaten by more than 3.75L in 11 starts which emphasises just how consistent he is. He had some very solid form last year including a neck defeat off a mark of 83 behind Berling who was an impressive winner on his next start and 1.5L beaten 4th off a mark of 86 where the 2nd performed very admirably in Listed races in his two subsequent starts. This year his first two starts were solid if not fantastic as he was beaten by 4.5L and 5.25L respectively but he put in an excellent effort LTO when narrowly going down by 0.75L. In the Class 3 Queen Mother's cup for amateur lady riders off a mark of 81, he was a bit unlucky as the winner Crackentorp, who won the same race the year before, got first run on him and it was a big step forward in the right direction. He's been raised to a mark of 84 but based on some of his efforts last year I definitely think he is able to score off a mark like this. Moreover, given the fact he was so progressive last year I certainly think he has improvement left in him being only a 5 year old. In terms of todays race, he takes a drop back in grade to a Class 4 and jockey Shane B Kelly takes the ride and his valuable 5lb claim will certainly come in handy today. He's had one start at Carlisle where he was a 1.5L beaten 2nd so he clearly goes well around here and if progressing from his last effort then I think he could prove very hard to beat.

andyman

Looked badly held up there on numerous occasions. Just couldn't find a gap.

rossom

Don't really know what to make of it andyman. I'll watch the race 5 or 6 times later on

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

Dang I was looking at Solar Spirit in the Carlisle 3.30 and Dark Dune (prob too soft and drawn in 1 box) in the 4.00. Oh well!

edit - HK Island has halved in price - 7.50! Is it a PW pick wonder or is it the rossom effect? Gone for Mica Mika instead.

4th place at 33/1! however only 15 went so I;d have lost my money.

rossom

Northern Spy 9/1 in the 5.55 Salisbury looks very interesting. Won this race last year off a 4lb higher mark under this rider and followed that up by proving it was no fluke by finishing a 1L beaten 2nd off a 7lb higher mark. He's not been at his best since then but he's been raced over longer trips than this in his subsequent starts and he looks laid out for this on what is his first start back over 7f since the corresponding race last year. Can seem him going very, very close.

the groutch

rossom wrote: »

9.20 Kempton

Ezdeyaad 8/1 NAP

the one that caught my eye in that race is SAOI, a former Jim Bolger horse
coming off a long layoff, but was competitive off 85 back then, and now off 76 with Spencer on board
worth a punt at 3/1 place only (WH) imo

edit: cut to 5/2 as I typed this

Slattsy

the groutch wrote: »

the one that caught my eye in that race is SAOI, a former Jim Bolger horse
coming off a long layoff, but was competitive off 85 back then, and now off 76 with Spencer on board
worth a punt at 3/1 place only (WH) imo

edit: cut to 5/2 as I typed this

^ was 20/1 last night on bet365

dchris

Was it you Rossom that tipped Levitate a few weeks back? Won at Carlisle today @ 18/1 .. Thanks if it was you who pointed him out!

rossom

dchris wrote: »

Was it you Rossom that tipped Levitate a few weeks back? Won at Carlisle today @ 18/1 .. Thanks if it was you who pointed him out!

I tipped up his stablemate Eastern Hills in the same race but I would have included his name in my write ups.

Someone else may have tipped him up

nice1franko

the groutch wrote: »

the one that caught my eye in that race is SAOI, a former Jim Bolger horse
coming off a long layoff, but was competitive off 85 back then, and now off 76 with Spencer on board
worth a punt at 3/1 place only (WH) imo

edit: cut to 5/2 as I typed this

SP was 14/1.... what happened there I wonder


7th (1) 1 Ezdeyaad (USA) Ed Walker 8 9-8 M J J Murphy (7) 14/1
Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, never dangerous opened 12/1 touched 14/1

the groutch

nice1franko wrote: »

SP was 14/1.... what happened there I wonder


7th (1) 1 Ezdeyaad (USA) Ed Walker 8 9-8 M J J Murphy (7) 14/1
Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, never dangerous opened 12/1 touched 14/1

?????

the one I mentioned, SAOI was a place only bet, and came in 3rd.

nice1franko

Sorry. Misread your post and the one you were quoting.