Camelot

paddymayoman

Do ye think Camelot will win the Irish derby at the weekend and is he value at 1/4?

tryfix

Yes and no. Yes I think he'll win it, he's a great horse but at 1/4 he's poor value. Dermot Welds Speaking Of Which (14/1 with Boyle sport) was fairly awesome the last day and the way his filly went and toppled the Oaks fillies at Ascot you wouldn't want to be taken 1/4 Camelot just in case his colt does the same. Oxx has Akeed Mofeed and Born To Sea still in the race. Bolger has Light Heavy in the race. A few of O'Briens flopped at Ascot so taking 1/4 on Camelot is riskier than it might seem at first glance.

paddymayoman

Fame and glory,astrology and power all gave poor performance.I think you're right taking him on with an outsider.Black Caviar went 1/6 and she was lucky in the end

aidan24326

paddymayoman wrote: »

Do ye think Camelot will win the Irish derby at the weekend and is he value at 1/4?

He'll probably win alright but 1/4 is never really value regardless of the horse (maybe if you'd gotten 1/4 on Frankel last week but that's an exception)

@tryfix

In all honesty Akeed Mofeed and Born To Sea won't get anywhere near Camelot, they're not a threat.

getonmyhorse

Anyone who backs born to see deserves to lose there money

klairondavis

1/4 is probably about right. Unless Weld's is a superstar it's hard to see any horse beating him. Akeed Mofeed will undoubtedly improve for the run and is probably not up to the required level anyway - form of the Beresford has not really worked out.

tryfix

aidan24326 wrote: »

He'll probably win alright but 1/4 is never really value regardless of the horse (maybe if you'd gotten 1/4 on Frankel last week but that's an exception)

@tryfix

In all honesty Akeed Mofeed and Born To Sea won't get anywhere near Camelot, they're not a threat.

They shouldn't get near him alright, he's along way in front of them all. A place is all they can realistically expect. Born To Sea has been a disappointment because so much was expected of him, but his two runs since he flopped in the English Guineas have been very promising and he looks like a step up in trip will suit. He's the kind of horse that's going to come in at a decent price some day.

the groutch

what I'd like to know is why it's being run as the last race, at 7:40 on a Saturday evening?

Shane732

the groutch wrote: »

what I'd like to know is why it's being run as the last race, at 7:40 on a Saturday evening?

To try and keep people at the course.

The crowd tends to dwindle after the Derby therefore there are less people to spend money. The aim by having it as the last race is that people can hang around listen to the music and spend money and potentially spend the evening at the course instead of going to the pub.

d-gal

aidan24326 wrote: »

He'll probably win alright but 1/4 is never really value regardless of the horse (maybe if you'd gotten 1/4 on Frankel last week but that's an exception)

@tryfix

In all honesty Akeed Mofeed and Born To Sea won't get anywhere near Camelot, they're not a threat.

I was told by a good source that Akeed Mofeed was the best 2yo in Oxx yard by a mile last year. Just didn't go on heavy ground. Will undoubtedly come on for the run but I wouldn't discount him in the future.
If the ground dries up and the rain stays away I will be having a good bet on Imperial Monarch

aidan24326

The way Camelot picked up at Epsom once Joseph O'Brien asked for an effort was very impressive, and he won going away in the end.

He actually traded at 5.5 in-running on betfair so that shows you how far back he was and how much work he had still to do rounding Tattenham Corner, and on a course more suited to running right up with the pace.

At one point I honestly thought Joseph had left him too much to do but his burst of speed through the last 3 furlongs was probably the most impressive display of this year apart from Frankel. The Irish Derby is usually not as strong as Epsom so it's hard to see how he'll be beaten. Even allowing for the fact that this year's Epsom Derby wasn't a particularly strong one.

kennyb3

tryfix wrote: »

Dermot Welds Speaking Of Which (14/1 with Boyle sport) was fairly awesome the last day and the way his filly went and toppled the Oaks fillies at Ascot you wouldn't want to be taken 1/4 Camelot just in case his colt does the same.

Like him too but;

a) by invincible spirit - doubts about getting mile and half
b) due rain and ground likely to yielding at best
c) last race of the day - ground chewed up.
d) only 2 places

If it was good ground i'd be interested but not now.