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Tour de France 2012

  • 21-06-2012 11:32am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭ BQQ
    Registered User


    A bit early, I know, but I was just having a first look at TDF prices on Paddypower and was very surprised to see Nicolas Roche @250/1

    Now, I realise he has slim to no chance of winning, but I'd consider him top 20 material. Price looks very big considering they could get him in the book at much lower due to patriotism alone.

    To illustrate my point - he just finished 10th in the tour de Suisse over 29 mins ahead of Andreas Kloden, yet Kloden is 66/1

    Can any cycling fans explain this?

    Anyone have any other tips for the Tour?


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 68,319 ✭✭✭✭ seamus
    Dental Plan!


    Previous results would have a lot to do with it. Roche has never broken the top ten of the Tour, whereas by Roche's age Kloden was on track to win it.

    You also can't really take results from very recent races as an indicator of form. Winnings and bonusses from races are usually split across the team no matter who wins. The more riders you place higher up the rankings, the more money the team gets.
    So the stronger riders may be "saved" for the more valuable and prestigious races by holding back in earlier races.

    There is quite a lot of tactical riding goes on in cycling, it's not just a matter of who has the strongest legs. It's a little bit like F1 in that regard.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭ BQQ
    Registered User


    Thanks, It's a bit clearer to me now.

    Greater emphasis on Timetrialling this year, which is his weak point.
    Most likely he'll be riding for Peraud as a result, though he claims they're co-team leaders.

    Still think Kloden is rotten value.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭ GetWithIt
    Registered User


    For what it's worth I tipped up Tony Martin at 150/1 last October on the basis of the leaked route.

    His odds did drop down to 40/1. Now at 60. I was aiming for the third place on the podium but getting knocked over by a car in training didn't help. I'm still happy enough as I think any 1 of at least 10 could appear on the podium.

    Baring falling off the bike the 1, 2 should be Wiggins, Cadel Evans. Gesink looks best of the rest to me but really nothing between any 1 of 10 others.

    For the Green jersey Sagan looks a more likely winner than Cavendish but at evens that market offers no bets.

    The Mountains seems to have a good bet with Dan Martin at 8/1. He has stated this, and a stage win, are his goals for the Tour. Generally the Mountains competition goes to the person who sets out to win it and not many do.

    My preferred bet for these events is Top 10 finish. The odds for that aren't available (on PP) but as a general rule I'll only be going with someone with a good TT, who is the designated team leader and hasn't already done the Giro this year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 DB74
    Registered User


    GetWithIt wrote: »
    The Mountains seems to have a good bet with Dan Martin at 8/1. He has stated this, and a stage win, are his goals for the Tour. Generally the Mountains competition goes to the person who sets out to win it and not many do.

    He's 16/1 with Ladbrokes (each way 1/4 odds 1,2,3)


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 DB74
    Registered User


    GetWithIt wrote: »
    My preferred bet for these events is Top 10 finish. The odds for that aren't available (on PP) but as a general rule I'll only be going with someone with a good TT, who is the designated team leader and hasn't already done the Giro this year.

    Top 10 odds are available elsewhere

    http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/top-10-finish

    Anything there you like?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭ antogz1979
    Registered User


    Tom Danielson at 5/2 for a top 10 is a great bet. Very good TT and has improved immensely in the mountains. He had a very good tour of Switzerland leading up to this. Lieuwe Westra at 14/1 could surprise a few as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭ BQQ
    Registered User


    I've Gone with an each way on Vincenzo Nibali @20/1

    Has podium finishes in grand tours to his name including a win in the Veulta. Will be team leader ahead of Basso, who finished 7th last year.


    Green Jersey

    Andre Greipel each way @14/1

    Sagan is even money fav after winning 14 times this year, but 5 were in the tour of california and 4 in the tour de suisse where he had little competition. Greipel also has 14 wins already this year the last of which was against cavendish 2 weeks ago. His team have nothing else going on, so he will have their full support.


    King of the mountains

    Samuel Sanchez won this last year at a big price as the bookies were caught out with the changes to the scoring with big points going for summit finishes. These finishes are often won by GC contenders and Sanchez is again a threat, but the value is not there this year.
    However, some other big names can be found at big prices. Step forward Cadel Evans each way @40/1. Will be looking to make an impression in the mountains given he's been second best to Wiggins in Time Trials this year.


    Top 10 Finish

    Rein Taaramae @8/1

    Was 11th last year, so with Andy Shleck out, he only needs to reproduce that effort. Emphasis on time trialling won't worry him as his TT is pretty good. 3-time national TT champion and 10th in the time trial in last years TDF.


    To win a stage

    Arthur Vichot @13/2

    Won a stage in the Dauphine this year. Stage win will be his aim. Not a GC threat, so if he gets in a breakaway, it could be let go.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭ BQQ
    Registered User


    BQQ wrote: »
    I've Gone with an each way on Vincenzo Nibali @20/1

    Has podium finishes in grand tours to his name including a win in the Veulta. Will be team leader ahead of Basso, who finished 7th last year.


    Green Jersey

    Andre Greipel each way @14/1

    Sagan is even money fav after winning 14 times this year, but 5 were in the tour of california and 4 in the tour de suisse where he had little competition. Greipel also has 14 wins already this year the last of which was against cavendish 2 weeks ago. His team have nothing else going on, so he will have their full support.


    King of the mountains

    Samuel Sanchez won this last year at a big price as the bookies were caught out with the changes to the scoring with big points going for summit finishes. These finishes are often won by GC contenders and Sanchez is again a threat, but the value is not there this year.
    However, some other big names can be found at big prices. Step forward Cadel Evans each way @40/1. Will be looking to make an impression in the mountains given he's been second best to Wiggins in Time Trials this year.


    Top 10 Finish

    Rein Taaramae @8/1

    Was 11th last year, so with Andy Shleck out, he only needs to reproduce that effort. Emphasis on time trialling won't worry him as his TT is pretty good. 3-time national TT champion and 10th in the time trial in last years TDF.


    To win a stage

    Arthur Vichot @13/2

    Won a stage in the Dauphine this year. Stage win will be his aim. Not a GC threat, so if he gets in a breakaway, it could be let go.


    Bit of a mixed bag.
    first two placed - others were a disaster.

    Small profit overall though.


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