Friday 15th June

UrbanSea

Galianna 20.10 Navan 11/1

Think this is a big each way price. She only won a maiden hurdle in March after 8 attempts but she's been consistent enough. She runs here on the flat off a mark of 75, 3lbs lower than last time out where she was well beaten at Gowran as an 11/2 shot, but that was on heavy ground and that really doesn't suit her, all of her five wins have had good in the description. I think she could be better than 75. Though her last win on the flat was at Clonmel back in May 10 off a mark of 70, she hacked up by ten lengths that day beating a good horse in Admiral Barry who is rated 80 and she gave him one pound. That was over 2 miles but she's flexible regarding trip as she's won over 12 and 14 furlongs too. I think the handicapper has been really generous to her dropping her, given that her previous run on the flat before that (September 2010) was off a mark of 83 in a 90k mile and a half Leopardstown handicap, where she ran a really good forth beaten about 2 and a half lengths by Vivacious Vivienne, who is since rated 100 (Gave Galianna 4 pounds that day). Hoping the ground can stay yielding, there are light showers forecasted early in the day so hopefully it won't soften the ground much but think she is weighted to run well, with Danny Benson taking off 4 pounds too



Nowhere, not surprised with the ground

Nulty

How did your exams go Urban?

rossom

4.10 York

Quality Art 40/1 NB

Extremely interesting contender who I think looks massively overpriced at 25/1. Formerly with Gary Moore, this 4 year old has now moved the in form Richard Guest team for 15,000gns recently and I think he has a major chance if recapturing his old form. After 3 solid efforts in his juvenile campaign, Quality Art really flourished as a 3 year old and looked extremely progressive until he went off the boil in has 3 starts. In his first 5 starts as a 3 year old, he posted 3 wins and a narrowly beaten 2nd and his handicap mark rose quickly from an initial 72 to a mark of 90 and its not hard to see why. After winning a maiden, he ran a very good 2nd on his handicap debut when finishing a 0.75L beaten 2nd. The winner looks a progressive horse winning off a 7lb higher mark subsequently and Quality Art lost nothing in defeat. After this Quality Art notched up two wins, the first a very impressive 4L success at Kempton in a race that has worked out really well. The 2nd Swiss Dream, who was rated 80 that day, has since won off a mark of 99 and the 3rd has won off an 8lb higher mark as well.

Quality Art was risen 10lb to a mark of 85 but showed no signs of stopping as he ran out an impressive 1L winner at Windsor. Under the guidance of Ryan Moore, he made all and Quality Art seemed to have a bit left in the tank as he went on to score. The 2nd Stlye and Panache won off the same mark two starts later and again nothing seems wrong with that form. Upped to a Class 3 off a mark of 90, Quality Art again ran a very solid race when finishing a 2L beaten 4th at Newmarkets July course. On the good to soft ground that probably wasn't ideal (two best efforts were on better ground), he set a very fast early pace and he faded late on. The form of that race is fine with the winner winning off 2lb subsequently, the 2nd Ballista has won off a 1lb lower mark and the 3rd Coeus won on his next start off the same mark. His final 3 starts as a 3 year old were poor (he was eased when beaten 3 times) and he may have just gone off the boil a little bit.

Quality Art makes his debut for Richard Guest off a mark of 86 and he'll have to overcome an 270 day break if he wants to get back to winning ways here. The break is an unknown, with the longest absence being 105 days before today but he ran a very good 2nd that day so I certainly think he's able to go well fresh enough. I think he looks potentially well handicapped off just 1lb above his last winning mark and if you discount his last 3 efforts he'd definitely be a much shorter price. Robbie Fitzpatrick takes the ride for the first time which represents his only engagement of the day but he has a good record with Richard Guest which looks positive. Moreover, Quality Art represents Guest's only runner at the track where he is 1-2 this year and the trainer appears to have his horses in good order with his last runner winning. I'm very happy with the draw in stall 19 given he has the option to bag the fence and attempt to make all, but its not ideal that fellow front runner Judge N Jury is drawn so close as it might take the edge of Quality Art's effort. If the change of scenery has worked the oracle, I think Quality Art could prove an extremely live prospect although with the 20 runner field and his break its not a race to get heavily invested in. However, he looks as if he'll need to win and receive a penalty to get into the Wokingham and thats a definite positive.

I hate doing more than one in this race but I can't leave MEDICI TIME 20/1 alone who won this race last year off only a 2lb lower mark before following that up with another win off a 1lb lower mark on his next start. He's been ok this year and its interesting that the visor is left off for the first time since 2008. Also, BLUE JACK looks quite overpriced at 16/1. Although winless since 2010 in a Listed contest, he's well handicapped on the best of his form and on the form of his effort two starts back in a better race off this mark he looks well handicapped with the 1st, 2nd and 6th winning at least once subsequently whilst his last effort can be excused. Willy Twiston-Davies looks a very interesting booking taking his first ride for the bang in form Dascombe stable and he takes off an extremely valuable 7lb which makes him a very live proposition.

I'll be doing reverse forecasts and tricasts between the trio as well as savers on the latters.

rossom

5.55 Navan

Luisant 9/4 NAP

Very bullish about this one for two reasons: firstly his rock solid form and secondly his trainers recent comments. In relation to his form, he has been in fantastic form recently. Two starts back he finished a 0.5L 2nd behind the very progressive Gordon Lord Byron who won on his next start before coming an excellent 2nd in a Listed contest on his last start. The form of this race was again solidified on Luisant's final start. On his last start, Luisant ran a cracker as he finished a nose beaten 2nd at the course over 5f behind My Girl Anna off a 2lb higher mark with the front 2 drawing 4.5L clear of the remainder. This again emphasised the form of his effort behind Gordon Lord Byron as My Girl Anna had finished just behind in that race but was on 2lb better terms. Moreover Knock Stars who finished 5th in the race which Gordon Lord Byron finished 4th this time and he has won on his only subsequent start when slightly wrong at the race and the overall form of this race. Interestingly for tomorrow, the 3rd Allegra Tak re-opposes tomorrow at 2lb worse in the weights as he attempts to make up a 4.5L gap having won himself impressively since. There are absolutely no holes in this 9 year olds form and he looks certain to improve for the step up to nearly 1f more.

The other huge factor is trainer James Nash's comments on Monday about his aspirations to get into the Wokingham at Royal Ascot next weekend "Hopefully he'll win and although I haven't looked at the entries, I'd expect him to win and pick up a 5lb penalty, which should get him there. To be honest, you'd want him to win if you had ideas of Ascot anyway". Its clear as day that Luisant needs to win this and the trainer shares the confidence I have given his rock solid form. Colm O'Donoghue takes the ride again after being on board last time and although he is 6lb higher than that effort he should take all the beating. I've had a large bet as I fully expect him to accomplish this.

the groutch

Luisant's race looks very weak, I can see why you'd be going in big at 9/4.

Never been a fan of big field sprints at York because if the field splits and you're on the side with no pace, you haven't a hope.
Although that does open up the chances of an outsider winning, so all 3 of those aren't without a squeak.

The one that caught my eye in that race though was RAIN DELAYED, a listed winner for Ger Lyons a couple of years ago.
Lost his way a bit when joining Michael Dodds last year, but making his debut for Dandy Nicholls and with a claimer on board is effectively running off 85 today.
Definitely worth watching for any support in the market.

longshotvalue

16:10 York


In this typically competitive York sprint in going to go with two. Blue Jack has come down to a decent mark and although he has to carry top weight here (with a little help from the 7lbs claimer on) he is beginning to show signs to returning to form. Its been a while since he has raced on decent ground over 5 furlongs and that looks to be his best conditions. He is a nice price on Betfair at the moment and worth a bet. His last race at Chester can be ignored as he missed the break and that left him with no chance, but the time before he ran a very decent race to be 2nd is what has turned out to be a very hot race. Im also going to have a small bet on a previous selection of mine in Hazelrigg. Although he was poor enough here last time he didn’t really get away, and his previous run looked like a return to form when an eyecatching 4th. He has been running well on and off for the last 18 months without a win but looks to have a shot today with what could be a decent draw and near bottom weight.

1Point win Blue Jack Betfair 25
1Point win Hazelrigg Betfair 26


York 3:05

Address Unknown has been poor enough since he left Dermot Welds yard this year. He had one decent looking run behind Gulf of Napels at Ripon, but in general last year in Ireland he looked to prefer good ground and a 12 or 14 furlong trip. He is in here today over 14 Furlongs with a 7lbs claimer on and dropped 10lbs for his 3 runs so far the last 2 of which were over probably too far. He is currently a huge price on Betfair and worth a small bet just I case those few factors get him back to form in any way.


½ Point win ½ Point Place Betfair 55/13

17:55 Navan


Calm Bay, has been fairly poor this year, but his mark has dropped alarmingly to a stage where is in this race of 73. On his form last year he would easily be capable of winning of that mark. The fact that he has blinkers on today for the first time in a while and a 3lbs claimer on to negate the 3lbs he is out of the handicap give me some hope that he may be about to come back to form and at a big price is worth a small bet also considering he appear well drawn for a prominent racer.


½ Point win 24 Betfair

MoscowFlyer

2.20 Doras Sister

Ran well at Pontefract which is where I took notice of this horse but didn't perform last time out at Nottinham after some problems in the stalls. Step up to a mile should suit and hoping it can run a big race at around 8/1.

chipsdave

NR Quality Art.

chipsdave

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

2.20 Doras Sister

Ran well at Pontefract which is where I took notice of this horse but didn't perform last time out at Nottinham after some problems in the stalls. Step up to a mile should suit and hoping it can run a big race at around 8/1.

Nicely backed too ,taken at all rates into 4/1.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

16:10 York


In this typically competitive York sprint in going to go with two. Blue Jack has come down to a decent mark and although he has to carry top weight here (with a little help from the 7lbs claimer on) he is beginning to show signs to returning to form. Its been a while since he has raced on decent ground over 5 furlongs and that looks to be his best conditions. He is a nice price on Betfair at the moment and worth a bet. His last race at Chester can be ignored as he missed the break and that left him with no chance, but the time before he ran a very decent race to be 2nd is what has turned out to be a very hot race. Im also going to have a small bet on a previous selection of mine in Hazelrigg. Although he was poor enough here last time he didn’t really get away, and his previous run looked like a return to form when an eyecatching 4th. He has been running well on and off for the last 18 months without a win but looks to have a shot today with what could be a decent draw and near bottom weight.

1Point win Blue Jack Betfair 25
1Point win Hazelrigg Betfair 26

sooooooooo close.....

rossom

rossom wrote: »

5.55 Navan

Luisant 9/4 NAP

Very bullish about this one for two reasons: firstly his rock solid form and secondly his trainers recent comments. In relation to his form, he has been in fantastic form recently. Two starts back he finished a 0.5L 2nd behind the very progressive Gordon Lord Byron who won on his next start before coming an excellent 2nd in a Listed contest on his last start. The form of this race was again solidified on Luisant's final start. On his last start, Luisant ran a cracker as he finished a nose beaten 2nd at the course over 5f behind My Girl Anna off a 2lb higher mark with the front 2 drawing 4.5L clear of the remainder. This again emphasised the form of his effort behind Gordon Lord Byron as My Girl Anna had finished just behind in that race but was on 2lb better terms. Moreover Knock Stars who finished 5th in the race which Gordon Lord Byron finished 4th this time and he has won on his only subsequent start when slightly wrong at the race and the overall form of this race. Interestingly for tomorrow, the 3rd Allegra Tak re-opposes tomorrow at 2lb worse in the weights as he attempts to make up a 4.5L gap having won himself impressively since. There are absolutely no holes in this 9 year olds form and he looks certain to improve for the step up to nearly 1f more.

The other huge factor is trainer James Nash's comments on Monday about his aspirations to get into the Wokingham at Royal Ascot next weekend "Hopefully he'll win and although I haven't looked at the entries, I'd expect him to win and pick up a 5lb penalty, which should get him there. To be honest, you'd want him to win if you had ideas of Ascot anyway". Its clear as day that Luisant needs to win this and the trainer shares the confidence I have given his rock solid form. Colm O'Donoghue takes the ride again after being on board last time and although he is 6lb higher than that effort he should take all the beating. I've had a large bet as I fully expect him to accomplish this.

Ran no sort of race at all. Bit perplexed with that one and I'd say connections are very disappointed, just like I am.

DelSutton

rossom wrote: »

Ran no sort of race at all. Bit perplexed with that one and I'd say connections are very disappointed, just like I am.

Must say dissapointed as well, thought he would do more, had him as a bet myself today, not sure what happened

UrbanSea

Not a bit confident of Galianna now that the going is heavy.

Nulty wrote: »

How did your exams go Urban?

Much better than I thought, I definitely failed maths though thanks for asking. Are you finished now?

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not a bit confident of Galianna now that the going is heavy.


Much better than I thought, I definitely failed maths though thanks for asking. Are you finished now?

No, got another project due in July. Just finished a module half an hour ago....wrecked. Got August off though, I'm so poor I'll be spending it looking for temp work.

UrbanSea

Is there much work for the next one?


I'm over in Chicago, have an interview for a call centre tomorrow that takes bookings for golf courses all over America. Sounds awful handy work

newuser89

I can't back that luisant anymore
Age appeared to catch up On him when he came back last season
I think he dropped like over 20 pounds in the rating in a year to a year and a half
And before that he was very consistent so he was never going to improve again as this season went on.
He will prob be hit and miss now until he's retired

newuser89

I can't back that luisant anymore
Age appeared to catch up On him when he came back last season
I think he dropped like over 20 pounds in the rating in a year to a year and a half
And before that he was very consistent so he was never going to improve again as this season went on.
He will prob be hit and miss now until he's retired