Gold certainty?

walshb

Guys, barring injury or disaster, pick your gold medalist from London that to you is most certain of getting gold. I will go with Rudisha at 800. He seems to be so far ahead and so at ease running this distance. Sally Pearson in the women

Pisco Sour

Olga Kaniskina in the walk. She never loses.

rom

Katie Taylor
Bolt

ecoli

Liu Xiang in the Hurdles. Can't see Robles competing with him

robinph

Chris Hoy in the Kerin, I think that is still in the Olympics

shels4ever

Xiang , Pearson but those pesky hurdles might get in the way.

Dan man

Valerie Adams in women's shot put is usually a big favourite....Ostapchuk will challenge her and is in great form this season (she set a new Belarussian N.R. this week) but the Kiwi barely ever loses to her at the major competitions.

thirstywork2

Bolt 1-2 favourite in the 100m.He hasn't looked tip top shape but is so far ahead of the rest.

My heart says Farah in the 5k but he will have so much pressure.

ecoli

thirstywork2 wrote: »

My heart says Farah in the 5k but he will have so much pressure.

I have a feeling that Lagat will have one last final send off and take it. He had a great indoor season and has gone under the radar so far this outdoor season

Clearlier

I'd have Farah for the 10k ahead of the 5k.

Sally Pearson is my favourite for gold. It would be Rudisha but the 800m is one of the most unpredicatble events. He should win it handily but it's so easy to get knocked about.

thirstywork2

ecoli wrote: »

I have a feeling that Lagat will have one last final send off and take it. He had a great indoor season and has gone under the radar so far this outdoor season

that to you is most certain of getting gold ???

MrCreosote

robinph wrote: »

Chris Hoy in the Kerin, I think that is still in the Olympics

It's in, but it's such a lottery you couldn't have him down as a huge favourite. He was very lucky in the Worlds.

Valerie Adams is the hottest favourite, followed by Sally Pearson. More scope for things to go wrong in the hurdles though.

ecoli

thirstywork2 wrote: »

that to you is most certain of getting gold ???

Not at all but I think he will take Farah so was my response to your choice.

See original post for my pick:D

robinph

Federer in the tennis.

China in the doubles table tennis.

USA in their version of the medal table (total medals), but China in the version that everyone else uses (Gold then Silver then Bronze).

walshb

I was more thinking of your picks in Track and Field, guys!

walshb

I picked Rudisha because even if he makes a "mistake," he can fix it, or try to. In the shorter distances and with hurdles, a mistake is usually game over. Bad start/fault start at 100 and you are maybe done for. Clip a hurdle and you may fall. But, all going well, Pearson stands out in the women. Rudisha at the momenst juts seems so far ahead of the rest and so at ease.

MrCreosote

robinph wrote: »

USA in their version of the medal table (total medals), but China in the version that everyone else uses (Gold then Silver then Bronze).

My favourite is when (smaller) countries show tables with gold medals per head of population. Probably a vaild enough comparison but it reeks of desperation.

Pisco Sour

robinph wrote: »

Federer in the tennis.

You havent watched a lot of tennis of late have you?

I assumed this thread was just about T&F no?

All this talk of something going wrong in the women's hurdles is very overhyped. The women's hurdles are way too low. You rarely see a woman even clip a hurdle. Yes Devers and Lolo made a hash of things, but in general you'd want to be a bit clumsy to fall over those hurdles. It's a far cry from Alen Johnson knocking over all 10 hurdles in Sydney and still coming 4th. :eek:

rom

Pisco Sour wrote: »

You havent watched a lot of tennis of late have you?

I assumed this thread was just about T&F no?

All this talk of something going wrong in the women's hurdles is very overhyped. The women's hurdles are way too low. You rarely see a woman even clip a hurdle. Yes Devers and Lolo made a hash of things, but in general you'd want to be a bit clumsy to fall over those hurdles. It's a far cry from Alen Johnson knocking over all 10 hurdles in Sydney and still coming 4th. :eek:

Still won't beat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewckPYePzbU

Dan man

robinph wrote: »

Federer in the tennis.

China in the doubles table tennis.

USA in their version of the medal table (total medals), but China in the version that everyone else uses (Gold then Silver then Bronze).

That's a gonner from the start....the doubles event has been replaced by a team event.

Dan man

Pisco Sour wrote: »

You havent watched a lot of tennis of late have you?

I assumed this thread was just about T&F no?

All this talk of something going wrong in the women's hurdles is very overhyped. The women's hurdles are way too low. You rarely see a woman even clip a hurdle. Yes Devers and Lolo made a hash of things, but in general you'd want to be a bit clumsy to fall over those hurdles. It's a far cry from Alen Johnson knocking over all 10 hurdles in Sydney and still coming 4th. :eek:

Sorry, can't let you away with that one....here's a video just for you, don't say I'm not good to you . Even the technically adept Pearson can have an off-day...add into that the huge pressure of an Olympic final when a country's expectations are on your shoulders...she's not as invincible as a lot of people thinks she is, she is the best but even the best can be caught out if they aren't 100% focussed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqHltfpBx0c

Pisco Sour

Dan man wrote: »

Sorry, can't let you away with that one....here's a video just for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqHltfpBx0c

Yes there are exceptions but there's no denying the hurdles for women are far too low, hence why you see good flat sprinters with horrible technique do well at hurdles. Wouldn't get away with this on the men's side.

Not a single other athlete in that race even clipped a hurdle. Compare that to the men's which is absolute carnage!

Dan man

Pisco Sour wrote: »

Yes there are exceptions but there's no denying the hurdles for women are far too low, hence why you see good flat sprinters with horrible technique do well at hurdles. Wouldn't get away with this on the men's side.

Not a single other athlete in that race even clipped a hurdle. Compare that to the men's which is absolute carnage!

Just pointing out that there is much scope for error even if the hurdles are relatively low.....it's no walk in the park as it is, she won't stroll home to gold unless she's 100% on the ball. A loss of focus for a split second and it could be over for anyone, Sally's no exception (but she is exceptional!)

Pisco Sour

Dan man wrote: »

Just pointing out that there is much scope for error even if the hurdles are relatively low.....it's no walk in the park as it is, she won't stroll home to gold unless she's 100% on the ball. A loss of focus for a split second and it could be over for anyone, Sally's no exception (but she is exceptional!)

She won't make that mistake again. I think if her competitors were relying on her to fall to beat her then they'd be waiting a long time. If she runs even close to her best she will win. I can't see anybody else even dipping under 12.40, not to mention 12.28 or better!

ecoli

Pisco Sour wrote: »

She won't make that mistake again. I think if her competitors were relying on her to fall to beat her then they'd be waiting a long time. If she runs even close to her best she will win. I can't see anybody else even dipping under 12.40, not to mention 12.28 or better!

Could argue the same about not seeing her dipping down to that level last year but surprises happy like Foster running 12.51 at the age of 37

Pisco Sour

ecoli wrote: »

Could argue the same about not seeing her dipping down to that level last year but surprises happy like Foster running 12.51 at the age of 37

She ran 12.49 in a rubbish meet in Australia against 15 second runners! Unless she falls (which she wont) or gets injured then she is unbeatable. Not one of the other athletes out there have the capability to run 12.28. Not a single one of them.

She won't be far off the world record in London IMO.

Dan man

Pisco Sour wrote: »

She ran 12.49 in a rubbish meet in Australia against 15 second runners! Unless she falls (which she wont) or gets injured then she is unbeatable. Not one of the other athletes out there have the capability to run 12.28. Not a single one of them.

She won't be far off the world record in London IMO.

That's not the point....we know she is overwhelming favourite but it doesn't make her "unbeatable". She could fall like she did in that Diamond League race, very unlikely but it's absurd to say it can't or won't happen.

myflipflops

Pisco Sour wrote: »

She ran 12.49 in a rubbish meet in Australia against 15 second runners! Unless she falls (which she wont) or gets injured then she is unbeatable. Not one of the other athletes out there have the capability to run 12.28. Not a single one of them.

If she runs to form then she wins and she wins well. There is no doubt about that and I have backed her. You cannot ignore the potential that pressure will effect her though. You actually point out how real the chance of big mistake is with this point.

Pisco Sour wrote: »

Yes Devers and Lolo made a hash of things

That is 2 athletes is the previous 5 Olympic 100 Hurdles final to have blown their chances by hitting a hurdle with victory within their grasp. Lolo Jones was a red hot favorite going into that final too.

Neither Devers nor Jones had the added pressure of the 1 false start rule either.


Somebody said Valerie Adams as the biggest certainty and that will probably work out correct. She has been a 1/5 shot (83%) to win the last few major champs. Isinbaeva is another one that I am surprised has not been mentioned. I have not seen her outdoors this season but if she brings her indoor form to the summer season then she is a very short price for gold.

Dan man

myflipflops wrote: »

If she runs to form then she wins and she wins well. There is no doubt about that and I have backed her. You cannot ignore the potential that pressure will effect her though. You actually point out how real the chance of big mistake is with this point.



That is 2 athletes is the previous 5 Olympic 100 Hurdles final to have blown their chances by hitting a hurdle with victory within their grasp. Lolo Jones was a red hot favorite going into that final too.

Neither Devers nor Jones had the added pressure of the 1 false start rule either.


Somebody said Valerie Adams as the biggest certainty and that will probably work out correct. She has been a 1/5 shot (83%) to win the last few major champs. Isinbaeva is another one that I am surprised has not been mentioned. I have not seen her outdoors this season but if she brings her indoor form to the summer season then she is a very short price for gold.

And don't forget big pre-race favourite in Athens 2004 Perdita Felicien of Canada crashing out on the first hurdle and taking the Russian girl with her.

Pisco Sour

Dan man wrote: »

That's not the point....we know she is overwhelming favourite but it doesn't make her "unbeatable". She could fall like she did in that Diamond League race, very unlikely but it's absurd to say it can't or won't happen.

Highly unlikely. The height of the hurdles are way too low. In comparison to the men's the amount of times you see a woman even clip a hurdle is small. Yes there's a chance she could fall but no more likely IMO than Bolt pulling a hamstring coming around the bend in the 200m final. It's commonly accepted that the height of the women's hurdles are way too low and there isn't enough emphasis on proper technique in the event, hence why you see people move over from 100m. If somebody like Bolt moved over to the 110m Hurdles he'd be put in his place very quickly!

It's my opinion that the chances of a fall in the women's hurdles are hugely over-estimated. Not to say it is impossible, but highly unlikely for an excellent technician like Pearson in the most important race of her life (especially given she has fallen before so you can bet your house she wont let that happen again). I'd expect far more eventful happenings in the 110m Hurdles come London!

myflipflops

Pisco Sour wrote: »

Yes there's a chance she could fall but no more likely IMO than Bolt pulling a hamstring coming around the bend in the 200m final.!

Bolts hamstring is not going to think "F*ck, I'm about to win Olympic gold. Don't tear, don't tear, don't tear, don't tear' though. A hamstring is not under the influence of mental pressure.

If you can find it, read Malcolm Gladwells writing on pressure/choking in sport. It is excellent.

Pisco Sour

myflipflops wrote: »

Bolts hamstring is not going to think "F*ck, I'm about to win Olympic gold. Don't tear, don't tear, don't tear, don't tear' though. A hamstring is not under the influence of mental pressure.

If you can find it, read Malcolm Gladwells writing on pressure/choking in sport. It is excellent.

I accept your point and there is pressure on her, but to be honest it would be nothing in comparison to the pressure on Sonia in 1996 and 2000. The vast majority of Australians do not know who Pearson is. I know that sounds unbelievable but it is the truth. An AFL player who gets busted for beating his wife gets about 10 times the coverage Pearson gets for winning a big race. The vast majority of pressure will be the pressure that will come from within. I personally don’t see her choking.

MrCreosote

Pisco Sour wrote: »

the amount of times you see a woman even clip a hurdle is small.

It's my opinion that the chances of a fall in the women's hurdles are hugely over-estimated.

And yet there she is falling over after clipping a hurdle no more than a year ago. Some events just have a higher risk of f***-ups than others, and picking a 'certainty' for gold is impossible.

Pisco Sour

MrCreosote wrote: »

And yet there she is falling over after clipping a hurdle no more than a year ago. Some events just have a higher risk of f***-ups than others, and picking a 'certainty' for gold is impossible.

There's no such thing as a certainty in anything (Bolt could false start, Kaniskina could get 3 red cards etc), but for the purposes of this thread I believe Pearson to be as close to a certainty as you can get right now, and that the chances of falling over a women's hurdle is too small to be worth talking about. Seriously what odds would you give on her falling over a hurdle? It's so slim it is pointless considering it! It's real clutching at straws stuff.

Yes she could bottle it and crash into a hurdle, but Kirani James could also bottle it and tighten up in the final 70 metres! The chances of bottling it are not event specific. Pearson has gotten over all 10 hurdles in 99.xx % of her races during her career. The odds are stacked overwhelmingly in her favour that she will do so again come London. Rather than analysing the extremely unlikely how about having a look at her opponents. Nobody has mentioned any actual women who have a chance of beating her, because there aren't.

myflipflops

Pisco Sour wrote: »

Seriously what odds would you give on her falling over a hurdle? It's so slim it is pointless considering it! It's real clutching at straws stuff.

You willing to lay me 10/1 that she either hits a hurdle hard (obviously costing the win) or false start in the final?

Pisco Sour

myflipflops wrote: »

You willing to lay me 10/1 that she either hits a hurdle hard (obviously costing the win) or false start in the final?

Hang on now, I never mentioned false starts at all with regards Pearson. After Daegu last year I'd be very careful to get involved in anything relating to a false start.

I'm referring to the likelihood of Pearson smashing a hurdle to cost her the victory. At 10-1 I'd offer those odds for that. I'm sure we're well in breach of the charter here

Brianderunner

^ Ah stop i talk about bets openly all the time on here

My thoughts on the most likely gold medal winners;

Pearson/Rudisha, nailed on
Vivian Cheryuiot 5k/10k, although Dibaba is back on the scene.
Aregawi womens 1500m, major champs can be tricky in this one however.
Chicherova in the Womens High Jump.

Woddle

Rudisha, Xiang, Bolt and Kiprop that'll be my accumulator.

Kiprop is just looking in a different league at the moment maybe more of a 50/50 though with Silas Kiplagat in the picture.

Kipsang in the marathon?

fiddy3

myflipflops wrote: »

If she runs to form then she wins and she wins well. There is no doubt about that and I have backed her. You cannot ignore the potential that pressure will effect her though. You actually point out how real the chance of big mistake is with this point.



That is 2 athletes is the previous 5 Olympic 100 Hurdles final to have blown their chances by hitting a hurdle with victory within their grasp. Lolo Jones was a red hot favorite going into that final too.

Neither Devers nor Jones had the added pressure of the 1 false start rule either.


Somebody said Valerie Adams as the biggest certainty and that will probably work out correct. She has been a 1/5 shot (83%) to win the last few major champs. Isinbaeva is another one that I am surprised has not been mentioned. I have not seen her outdoors this season but if she brings her indoor form to the summer season then she is a very short price for gold.

Tread carefully with Adams as a 1-5 shot though, that big bad Belarussian is throwing outrageously far in deepest darkest Belarus.
http://www.european-athletics.org/news/latest-news/496-general/11136-ostapchuk-and-menkova-have-massive-throws-in-minsk.html

Rudisha is probably the biggest certainty IMO, the 800m is a lot less tricky if you front run as he does, and he has enough of an edge over Kaki and Aman that he can afford to have them sitting on him for the whole race and is good enough not to let them get alongside, never mind get past. The dangerous thing with Pearson, and the reason Lolo and Devers fell, is that she could be running faster than she's ever run before in that final, and that alters the usual, practised approach to a hurdle, giving you less time to get your lead leg up. She deserves to be odds on favourite alright (not too odds on though). Also, you never know for certain she'll be in that 12.2x shape in London, and if she only manages 12.3x or 12.4, that's a level that others can hit on the biggest day.

ecoli

Woddle wrote: »

Rudisha, Xiang, Bolt and Kiprop that'll be my accumulator.

Kiprop is just looking in a different league at the moment maybe more of a 50/50 though with Silas Kiplagat in the picture.

Kipsang in the marathon?

Im a along the same lines though I not going accums as I have a few dark horse picks (Bekele I still reckon will come good in the 10k but maybe this is my heart speaking)

thirtyfoot

On Pearson there is a danger of falling. She is so fast now that closeness to hurdles could be an issue, especially with a tailwind.

Kurt Godel

Pisco Sour wrote: »

There's no such thing as a certainty in anything (Bolt could false start, Kaniskina could get 3 red cards etc), but for the purposes of this thread I believe Pearson to be as close to a certainty as you can get right now, and that the chances of falling over a women's hurdle is too small to be worth talking about. Seriously what odds would you give on her falling over a hurdle? It's so slim it is pointless considering it! It's real clutching at straws stuff.

Yes she could bottle it and crash into a hurdle, but Kirani James could also bottle it and tighten up in the final 70 metres! The chances of bottling it are not event specific. Pearson has gotten over all 10 hurdles in 99.xx % of her races during her career. The odds are stacked overwhelmingly in her favour that she will do so again come London. Rather than analysing the extremely unlikely how about having a look at her opponents. Nobody has mentioned any actual women who have a chance of beating her, because there aren't.

I'm just out from a Statistics exam today, and found this reply very interesting! You would need to know what her strike rate is over many races, and then this proportion would be binomially distributed over the heats to the final she has to run.

Forgive the nerdiness, but it feeds into the OP's question- what events are most likely to punish a mistake (and thus ruin the chances of a gold?). I'd argue that the long and triple jumps, and the throws, give a better "second chance" quotient. The high and pole jumps penalize an earlier mistake if counting back from the frequent occurance of a tie on final height. One false sprint start and you're out, so events that rely on a fast start have a greater chance of the favourite DQ'ing. Relays you can drop a baton, change outside the zone, or mix up the line, so they have a high probability of favourites not getting the gold they would otherwise get. Middle distance, long distance- you can recover better from a mistake?

robinph

Most likely failure for the favourite then is 4x100 -> 110mH -> 100m flat -> 100mH -> other sprints -> vertical jumps -> horizontal jumps -> throws - > middle distance...

4x400 will have a low failure rate for the favourite, but marathon will have a higher rate than the other distance events (it will still be a Kenyan though).

Getonwithit

Gold certainties
Men Rudisha (Kaki stepped off the track the other night!)
Women Valerie Aadams

the_real_lamp

Think Adams, Liu, Pearson Kaniskina and Bolt in the 100m are the best gold certainties.

Would have had Dwight Phillips there too but he has pulled out of US Trials and next season will his final season which is disappointing, brilliant championship performer.

thirstywork2

Clearlier wrote: »

I'd have Farah for the 10k ahead of the 5k.

Sally Pearson is my favourite for gold.

US runner-up Kellie Wells pulled up a big upset as world champ Sally Pearson lost a hurdles race for the first time (in a race that she didn't fall) since August 27, 2010

thirstywork2

thirstywork2 wrote: »

Bolt 1-2 favourite in the 100m.He hasn't looked tip top shape but is so far ahead of the rest.


Bolt not ahead of Blake right now but still think he can turn it around.

bolt is 6-4 to win both the 100m & 200m

pc11

Wells has really frightened Pearson now, beating her twice in an afternoon. The only consolation for Pearson is that the times weren't lightning fast, she can certainly go much quicker.

macinalli

pc11 wrote: »

Wells has really frightened Pearson now, beating her twice in an afternoon. The only consolation for Pearson is that the times weren't lightning fast, she can certainly go much quicker.

I think that she only beat her once - didn't Pearson edge the semi-final? Agreed that Pearson has the speed to go much faster, but if for the Olympics it's a cold wet day like yesterday then this could get really interesting! Pearson has looked invincible for quite a while now, looking forward to seeing how she responds to this!

pc11

macinalli wrote: »

I think that she only beat her once - didn't Pearson edge the semi-final? Agreed that Pearson has the speed to go much faster, but if for the Olympics it's a cold wet day like yesterday then this could get really interesting! Pearson has looked invincible for quite a while now, looking forward to seeing how she responds to this!

Ah, Pearson did edge the semi by 0.01, I wasn't watching closely enough apparently.

walshb

Although I would rate Pearson a favourite, the fact that it's 100 metres, over hurdles, and with the possibility of a false start, it's not as big a favourite as Rudisha I feel.