Stupid College!

rossom

Haven't had access to a computer but these would have been my selections for today. Have put them both up the last few runs.Pain in the arse!

rossom wrote: »

4.15 Kempton

Ducal 13/2 NAP

If it wasn't for his wide draw in stall 13 I'd be investing a significant wager on this fella but I still think he has a cracking chance of landing this prize. Ducal is an unexposed 4 year old who has made a bright start to his career for trainer Mike Murphy after previously being with Sir Mark Prescott. After winning once from 6 starts as 3 year old for Prescott, Ducal was very well backed on his debut for his current yard back in December over 7f to be sent off favourite. He had to travel very wide that day and the trainer said afterwards that as a result he ran out of gas. He was beaten by 2.25L and the form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner scoring off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Lastkingofscotland, who reopposes tomorrow off the same terms as this race, has won off a 7lb higher mark.

Off a mark of 75, Ducal landed his 2nd career success over C+D on the 1st of March to run out a 0.5L winner on the back of a 4month break. Under the handling of John Fahy, Ducal was dropped out the back before being given a very, very confident ride to get up close home after travelling into the race very well. To my eyes, Ducal had a lot left in the tank that day and he proved it on is next start. Up 5lb for that victory and on his 2nd last start, Ducal put in an extremely game performance to win off his revised mark of 80. After hitting the front about 2f out, he showed gritty determination to hold off all challengers on both sides to score by 0.5L. In a race where he looked like he was always holding his rivals, the form has worked out very well. The 3rd Haamaat scored impressively on his only subsequent start off a 2lb higher mark and the 5th won off a 1lb lower after this.

LTO Ducal was a rather unlucky loser in my eyes. Off a mark of 83, which he has again today, he was a step slow leaving the stalls and as a result had to settle for a position in the rear of the field. After being angled out wide, Ducal took a while to get fully motoring (which is normal) and he was never closer than at the finish when he was beaten by only half a length. The form of that race is ok (1st and 3rd reoppose here today) but I'm more than sure that Ducal is still very progressive and is more than capable of landing an event off this mark. He's an incredibly consistent animal, finishing beaten 2.25L or less in each of his 8 handicap runs to date so you know your going to get a very good run for your money. Moreover, he clearly loves it around here with his last 3 starts, consisting of 2 wins and a 0.56L defeat, coming over C+D and its a huge positive that he is coming back to somewhere he is tried and tested. Trainer Mike Murphy has his horses in outstanding order at present which is a huge positive. Although jockey John Fahy's absence tomorrow (I'm presuming he's banned) is a negative as he knows the horse very well, Pat Dobbs is a more than able deputy. Really hate his draw in stall 13 but he doesn't need to front run so hopefully Dobbs can get him a midfield sit if breaking well. I'm very confident of a big run and 13/2 looks a very fair price as Ducal looks to get back to winning ways.

rossom wrote: »

7.35 Sandown

Tingo in the Tale 20/1

I like the look of David Arbuthnot's 3 year old who is pretty unexposed and if ignoring his last effort which came on barely raceable LTO I think he looks fairly overpriced at 20s. In his 6 starts to date, TITT has proved himself to be a rather useful animal and I expect there is a lot more to come. On debut back in July of last year over 7f, this gelding ran a decent enough race in which the talented Group 3 winning Crius won as he finished about 7.5L beaten back in 6th. He looked like he lacked a bit of racecourse experience and looked certain to come from that effort. On his 2nd start, TITT broke his maiden when landing a Maiden at Brighton stepped up to a mile on soft ground. Again, he looked to still be learning but he was forward enough to land this contest going away when scoring by 1.75L, with the front two pulling 5L clear of the remainder. Although the form of that race is only ok, he showed a likeable battling quality to draw clear from Sheila's Buddy when she drew back alongside.

On his 3rd start and after being assigned a handicap mark of 75, Tingo in the Tale ran a very admirable second over 1m at Newmarket on good to soft ground as he finished 1.25L behind Devdas. In a large field, he got a decent enough passage through from the back and was never nearer at the finish, demonstrating a step up in trip would suit. The form of that race is very solid, with Devdas performing well off a 6lb higher mark in better races. Moreover, the 4th Glee ran a cracker in the Tattersill Millions filly's 2YO race subsequently and the 5th Salford Art ran a very good race to beaten only 5L in a Group 1 subsequently. 3 starts back in October and upped to a mark of 78, TITT was upped to 9f on good ground at Newmarket and it was a strange performance. After travelling into the race very strongly, his stride shortened significantly and it looked as if he either didn't handle the good ground or something went wrong. Mizbah, who finished just behind Tingo in the Tale on his handicap debut and who reopposes tomorrow on 2lb worse terms, finished 3rd in this race so it clearly wasn't a true showing of his potential. This was his last start as a 2 year old and given he wasn't seen for 6 months either of my 2 theories are very possible.

Two starts back, TITT made his AW debut at Kempton where he was a massive eye catcher in my eyes over 1m on his reappearance run. In his traditional style of sitting off the pace, James Doyle brought him around the outside and under only hands and heels riding he stayed on past beaten horses to finish a 4L beaten 5th. Considering Doyle didn't go for the whip once, it looked clear to me that this was just to get a run under his belt after a long absence and he certainly appeared to have a lot of horse left under him.Furthermore, the step up in trip again looked like it would definitely benefit him. LTO Tingo in the Tale was stepped upped to 1m2f for the first time in a Class 3 event and in my eyes it looks his ideal trip. Off a mark of 78, he was very well fancied by connections as he was backed from 14/1 into 6/1 before going off 15/2 on the heavy ground at todays track but he put in an absolute shocker and I'm taking a bit of a risk ignoring this effort. On barely raceable ground, he was asked to close by James Doyle before being eased 2f out and he was nearly brought to a walk about 1.5f out. He either couldn't act on extremely heavy ground or he didn't feel right to Doyle.

Today he's again tried at the 1m2f trip at Sandown which shows that connections share my opinion that he will relish the step up in trip. He's been dropped 3lb for his last effort and he's back to the mark of 75 where he posted an excellent 2nd on handicap debut. He faces good ground tomorrow which is a slight concern as he may not have acted on it in his last start as a two year old but I think the price factors in these concerns. He's dropped back into Class 4 company today and faces some pretty unexposed rivals but he is relatively unexposed himself and I think he'll prove to be better than his current mark of 75. Jim Crowley takes the ride and he has a 22% strike rate for trainer David Arbuthnot and is riding fantastically at the moment and he is a really positive booking in my eyes. Another concern I have is that Arbuthnot's horses aren't in the best of form at present and he's actually without a flat winner since last August (since February over jumps). He was well backed LTO so connections were obviously hopeful of a big run and although he won't be a big bet from me I hope he can bounce back to form and run a very good race.

mike65

Ducal isn't booked for a ride while Tingo in the Tale 19:40 Kempton Park Wednesday (about 7s right now)

edit - Tingo ran today at Lingfield winning by a short head at 8s, doubt he'll go again.

Goldcupfav

mike65 wrote: »

Ducal isn't booked for a ride while Tingo in the Tale 19:40 Kempton Park Wednesday (about 7s right now)

Both won at Lingfield today 15/2 and 4/1.

mike65

Just seen your post after I did an update.

Right, so this is an outrageous case of aftertiming!

rossom

mike65 wrote: »

Just seen your post after I did an update.

Right, so this is an outrageous case of aftertiming!

Clearly. Not trying to take any credit just a pain in the arse!

mike65

It would have been better not to have said anything, people only suspect the worst

rossom

mike65 wrote: »

It would have been better not to have said anything, people only suspect the worst

Ah well. Let them think what they want.

Backstreet Moyes

rossom wrote: »

Ah well. Let them think what they want.

Exactly i backed Ducal today after his run the last day when he stopped out in front and he nearly done it again today. I have no doubt you would have posted up Ducal today anyway was actually suprised when i didnt see you tip him up.

Slattsy

So when you're in college you spend your time going through the horse racing form.. we are all ****ed if this is what the youth of today are up to lol :P

rossom

Slattsy wrote: »

So when you're in college you spend your time going through the horse racing form.. we are all ****ed if this is what the youth of today are up to lol :P

Right let me reply to this outrageous misrepresentation on youth in society. Firstly, I do my research in my own time- it would take 1 minute to post the selections today with unedited right ups. Secondly, I'm a Masters student who is on the verge of getting a First Degree Honours from Smurfit. Your original post may have been in jest but I don't take kindly to somebody making slanderous comments about anyone that they do not know, especially me.

d31b0y

rossom wrote: »

Right let me reply to this outrageous misrepresentation on youth in society. Firstly, I do my research in my own time- it would take 1 minute to post the selections today with unedited right ups. Secondly, I'm a Masters student who is on the verge of getting a First Degree Honours from Smurfit. Your original post may have been in jest but I don't take kindly to somebody making slanderous comments about anyone that they do not know, especially me.

Can't tell if serious...

I hope you find time to put up your selections for today.

Slattsy

d31b0y wrote: »

rossom wrote: »

Right let me reply to this outrageous misrepresentation on youth in society. Firstly, I do my research in my own time- it would take 1 minute to post the selections today with unedited right ups. Secondly, I'm a Masters student who is on the verge of getting a First Degree Honours from Smurfit. Your original post may have been in jest but I don't take kindly to somebody making slanderous comments about anyone that they do not know, especially me.

Can't tell if serious...

Ha me neither.