Monday 4th June

rossom

5.15 Carlisle

Miami Gator 14/1 NAP

14/1 looks an absolutely huge price for Elaine Burke's 5 year old as he returns to the Carlisle course where he absolutely loves it and holds a tremendous record. In his 5 previous visits to this C+D, he boasts a tremendous record of 3 victories, a short head beaten 2nd and a 1L beaten 4th so its absolutely clear that he flourishes over the mile trip at the course. He's going to have to bounce back from a few poor runs but he had a similar enough profile last year so I definitely feel he's going to bounce back to form in a massive way and I envisage a much better performance tomorrow from this gritty, gritty battler.

Last year, Miami Gator started off his 4 year old campaign on the back of a busy winter and on his first start of 2011 he put up an excellent effort at Lingfield over 1m last January when finishing a 1L beaten 3rd off a mark of 79. After attempting to make all, Miami Gator was collared in the final strides by two rivals as he ended up being beaten by only 1L. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner running well off 4lb higher marks subsequently, the 2nd Ocean Legend won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts afterwards and the 4th Wilfred Pickles won 2 of his subsequent 3 starts. After running only ok in a couple of claimers over in France, Miami Gator ran a cracking race when finishing a 1L beaten 4th at the course last May off a mark of 78. After adopting his typical front running style, he was clear of the pursuers until about the final half furlong where 3 of his rivals swamped him at the finish and went past. It was a very solid effort, and Miami Gator would have his revenge a month later.

Towards the end of June, Miami Gator took on two of the three rivals who had beaten him the month prior off the same mark of 78 but he turned the tables with them as he landed the Class 4 event in fine style when scoring by 1.75L. In traditional front running fashion, he was joined and indeed headed by the eventual second Vito Volterra with about 2f to go but he battled back gamely to get on top of that rival to land the race impressively. The form of that race couldn't be any stronger and if reproducing this effort he could be incredibly difficult to beat. The 2nd and 3rd both won on their next starts off the same mark whilst the 3rd Take it to the Max is now 16lb higher than he was that day so its clear he beat some in form rivals impressively that day. After being raised 8lb for this win, he put in an ok effort at York before getting back on the winning track when landing a claimer at Sandown last July. Although he was worse off at the weights with the 2nd and 3rd, its hard to evaluate that form and I think its best not to look into it too much, although the handicapper did raise him to a mark of 89 after that effort.

Miami Gator's final start as a 4 year old came last September where he was pretty disappointing at Ayr. After taking the winter off, Miami Gator has had 3 starts this year including two over in France in claimers. To be honest he hasn't looked that well this year which is an obvious concern but considering he hadn't had more than a 2 month break since beginning his career in 2009 I think he will have needed these 3 runs to get him back up to peak fitness. Moreover, he's now fallen to what appears a very attractive handicap mark of 80 and he's just 2lb above his last winning mark in a race that has worked out very well over C+D and I definitely think he's well handicapped. Although Michael Metcalfe takes a handy 3lb off his back which should help offset the burden of carrying top weight, I don't really know too much about him and given that Miami Gator is a horse that needs to be scrubbed along for quite a way I would definitely have preferred regular jockey Andrew Elliot to be on. However, its only a small concern for me. With Elaine Burke in pretty decent form at present, I think the return to Carlisle is a big indicator of how Miami Gator is going at home considering he loves it here so much. His draw in stall 1 should allow him to make all as he likes to do and for a horse that has never been beaten by more than 1L at the track in 5 visit I think 14/1 vastly overstates his chances, especially given he is only 2lb above his last win at the track. I'm very confident of a very big run from Miami Gator and think he could be extremely difficult to beat tomorrow.

rossom

2.30 Leicester

Lunar Deity 15/2 NB

Very surprised that 15/2 is available for Eve Johnson Houghton's 3 year old on the back of his excellent effort in Listed company LTO. He now returns to Class 4 handicap company and I think his handicap mark of 80 looks potentially very lenient. Lunar Deity make his debut last July as a 2 year old and for the first three furlongs he pulled the arms off Cathy Gannon and he desperately needed that racecourse experience. On his 2nd start he definitely showed some promise under Tom Queally when running well for a long way before being eased towards the finish. On his 3rd start he took a massive step forward when sauntering to a 5L success when dropped back to 6f at Ffos Las last July and it was an extremely impressive visual display. Sitting up near enough to the pace, Lunar Deity cruised to the front under hands and heels riding under tomorrows jockey John Fahy as he pulled well clear of the rest of the field to such an extent that he was eased close home. The form of that race isn't too bad with the 3rd winning on his next start impressively and he is now a 77 rated animal. Furthermore, the 4th horse Melenoras is a 70 rated horse so considering the ease in which Lunar Deity won that day I think it looks his mark of 80 looks rather lenient.

Lunar Deity was assigned an initial handicap mark of 82 as he was stepped into a Class 2 handicap at York on Good to Soft ground last August. However, he ran too poor to be true and you have to ignore that effort. On the back of this, Lunar Deity took a 9 month break before putting in what I thought was a very good effort on his seasonal reappearance and first start as a 3 year old. Over the 7f trip in a Class 3 handicap at Salisbury last month, Lunar Deity travelled very well for a long way but faded late on as he finished a well beaten 3rd. However, it certainly looked to me as if he would need the run and he put in an excellent display after this on his next and final start. Four days ago, Lunar Deity was stepped into a Listed contest at Epsom where he ran an absolutely cracking race to finish only a 4.25L beaten 4th. After sitting close enough to the pace, Lunar Deity came with a very good run about 3f out before taking 2nd only to be passed by a couple of rivals in the final furlong over the 7f trip. It really was a terrific effort, especially considering the ratings of the horses around him were 99, 102, 98 and 107 and if that effort was a true running it was an effort that really makes his mark of 80 look very lenient. Moreover, the Topspeed figures from that race solidifies the untested form of this contest.

Tomorrow Lunar Deity returns to a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 80 and when analysing both his emphatic win and excellent effort in the Listed contest its quite difficult to envisage that he is not better than his current mark. As the handicapper has not yet reassessed that Listed contest, it is very possible that Lunar Deity is well in at the weights as its very likely that the handicapper will put him up for that effort so I think its very significant that connections turn him so quickly. I see the drop to 6f as a positive as it is questionable as to whether or not he has finished off his races over 7f and the stiff Leicester track should suit. Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has her horses in very good form at the moment and jockey John Fahy, who was on board for Lunar Deity's sole success, takes the ride and it represents his only engagement of the day. I can see why Our Boy Jack has proved popular as he won impressively on his last start in a race where the 2nd has won since but he has been given a 10lb rise and is up in class and I am more than happy to take him on with Lunar Deity. With the ground and draw no problems, I am expecting a very big showing from this 3 year old colt and I'll be pretty surprised if he doesn't register his 2nd career victory tomorrow.

rossom

4.50 Carlisle

Hot Rod Mamma 7/1

Absolutely love this horse to bits as I was on her 4 times consecutively last year including her last victory which was an emphatic success of a mark of 80. She was extremely progressive last year as she rapidly went up in the handicap from a mark of 48 to 92 and although she went off the boil a bit in recent times I thought she was a massive eye catcher on her last start as she was travelling very well in behind the pace in a tougher race than this but she was unable to find a gap and it certainly looked like she was back to her best. She runs tomorrow off a mark of 87 and given the form of her 4.5L victory off a mark of 80 is strong I certainly don't think her mark is beyond her. Moreover, she put in a cracking effort to finish a 2L beaten 3rd in a Class 2 handicap off a 5lb higher mark last year and I certainly have no doubts in my mind that she is capable of winning off her current rating. She returns to the C+D where she won impressively last year so she clearly goes well at the track which is a definite bonus, especially considering no other horse has form here. Shane B Kelly takes the ride and clearly gets on well with Hot Rod Mamma as he boasts a victory and the 2L beaten 3rd off a mark of 92 from his only two rides on her and his booking is a definite positive, especially as he can claim 5lb off her back. I'm definitely concerned about the favourite who could have definitely been assigned a lenient opening handicap mark but I'm going to take him on as he's too short for me (although I'll be doing the RFC). With the drop back to a Class 3 representing Hot Rod Mamma's easiest assignment for quite and with trainer Dianne Sayer in good form at present, I'm confident of a big showing from this 5 year old and I really hope she gets back to winning ways tomorrow.

MoscowFlyer

Danadana 3.55 Redcar 2/1
Dawn Approach 4.10 Naas 4/5

Double!

BQQ

I like Lunar Deity too, Rossom.

Also a little each way on Triskaidekaphobia @25/1 Carlisle (14:25) .
Only beaten a head off this mark at Catterick last October.
Shane Kelly rides for the first time. First time for this yard too as far as I can gather, but he has a 33% strike rate at the track and is a superior jockey to the ones that usually ride the horse.

longshotvalue

15:55 Redcar, Zetland Gold Cup Handicap


I’m going to go with 2 decent priced horses in this good handicap. Navajo Chief has been in decent form this year without getting his head in front and ran a very good race last time out behind Fury at York. He is stepping up in trip here and judging by that last run it won’t do any harm. He has won of higher than today mark of 98 and just looks overpriced at the moment at 18.0 on Betfair. Fork Handles is a horse with some untapped potential, who is possibly overpriced due to a poor run last time on soft ground. The run before in the Rosemary Handicap was very good in a hot handicap of this mark and a repeat of that will put her in with a great shout here. Her last run can be ignored as it was over too short a trip on soft ground and the conditions and trip today should be far more suitable. 15.5 on Betfair looks well worth a bet.

Navajo Chief 1pt win Betfair 18.0
Fork Handles 1pt win Betfair 15.5

rossom

Huge overnight rain that changed the going from good to soft killed Lunar Deitys chances

MoscowFlyer

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Danadana 3.55 Redcar 2/1
Dawn Approach 4.10 Naas 4/5

Double!

Sweat! Danadana already home by a head! It won @ 5/4 so I got a nice price this morning, Dawn Approach now 1/2!

WINNER!