Kenny to push for debt deal after Yes vote

cyberhog

The Government is to push European leaders to slash the cost of its crippling bank bailout after it secured resounding support for the fiscal treaty.

...

Mr Kenny said he raised the banking crisis directly with the German Chancellor and he also discussed it with French president Francois Hollande, Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy, Mr Barroso and president of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy.

He said the Yes vote gives the Government the power to negotiate more strongly on the issue of bank debt.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/kenny-to-push-for-debt-deal-after-yes-vote-553873.html


Merkel must be laughing her ass off! If our poor deluded Taoiseach thinks the EU leaders are going to give us anything other than crippling austerity then he's a bigger fool than I thought.

loldog

Ireland's quirky constitutional requirement regularly provides the shaky EU project with a much needed figleaf of democratic legitimacy. It's a mistake to underestimate political capital.

.

onemorechance

cyberhog wrote: »

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/kenny-to-push-for-debt-deal-after-yes-vote-553873.html


Merkel must be laughing her ass off! If our poor deluded Taoiseach thinks the EU leaders are going to give us anything other than crippling austerity then he's a bigger fool than I thought.

Mr Kenny said he raised the banking crisis directly with the German Chancellor and he also discussed it with French president Francois Hollande, Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy, Mr Barroso and president of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy.

Good man Enda! So brave of you to raise the banking crisis directly with your European equivalents! What a brave and courageous leader you are! Did Francois Hollande give you a pat on the head for your bravery?

He said the Yes vote gives the Government the power to negotiate more strongly on the issue of bank debt.

Surely the threat of a No vote before the election would have given them a strong negotiating point also!

With Enda's negotiating skills we'll end up paying for Spain's bank bailout too! :pac: Maybe it's best that he doesn't speak directly to Mariano Rajoy anymore!

books4sale

Maybe you all missed the point.

The Irish people voted 'YES', that's what we now have to negociate with, there are no other alternatives. :pac:

superluck

Ireland is definitely in a stronger position now to renegotiate it's debt because it did what the Germans requested. The yes vote demonstrates Ireland is not to be messed with.

Galwayguy35

superluck wrote: »

Ireland is definitely in a stronger position now to renegotiate it's debt because it did what the Germans requested. The yes vote demonstrates Ireland is not to be messed with.

Somehow I don't think Germany and France are quaking in their boots about a country whose population would fit in one corner of Paris and Berlin or our Mr Nice Guy Taoiseach.

soupdrinker

Enda was too afraid to debate the treaty with other party leaders in a tv studio, how the hell is he going to negotiate a deal on the bank debt with the bigwigs of europe:mad:

Scofflaw

Ladies and gents, the referendum is now over - which means the Politics forum will no longer be tolerating AH-style posts in the name of democracy. Please bear this warning in mind.

moderately,
Scofflaw

books4sale

soupdrinker wrote: »

Enda was too afraid to debate the treaty with other party leaders in a tv studio, how the hell is he going to negotiate a deal on the bank debt with the bigwigs of europe:mad:

How do you know Kenny was afraid to debate in a TV studio, where did you pull that misinformation from. Did he say that publicly?

Enda Kenny is the leader of this country as voted by the Irish people, I don't want to see our leader wasting time in TV studios debating with a bunch of nobodys.

Let the man do his job, which is to lead this country as a strong and proud member of the European Union.

Together we stand tall, divided we fall.

forfuxsake

books4sale wrote: »

How do you know Kenny was afraid to debate in a TV studio, where did you pull that misinformation from. Did he say that publicly?

Enda Kenny is the leader of this country as voted by the Irish people, I don't want to see our leader wasting time in TV studios debating with a bunch of nobodys.

Let the man do his job, which is to lead this country as a strong and proud member of the European Union.

Together we stand tall, divided we fall.

By 'nobodies' do you mean the second largest party in the state?

A yes or no will suffice.

soupdrinker

He is supposed to be representing us, the country yet he couldn't stand up on TV with other leaders and debate the referendum and explain why we should vote yes.

If he was a confident capable leader and could honestly explain to the country why we should vote yes, then he should have easily been able to take part in a debate.

If he couldn't do that, he most certainly cannot stand up and negotiate a deal with the leaders of Europe! Every interview I have seen with him does not give me any confidence what so ever that he could do a deal.

Going by the current state of the country, I don't know what he is spending his time doing, but he's not doing a good job of leading.

As for 'together we stand tall, divided we fall', that's a load of rubbish! There is more divides in this country all down to the way this country has been/is being run. What about the working class who are struggling to pay their mortgages and yet all the rich builders/bankers get away with everything. Its gone too far for the country to stand together and there is no-hope of this unless the government starts taking action against the big boys and starts making an effort to look after the little guys!

Bullseye1

I will believe it when I see it.

Mr.Micro

superluck wrote: »

Ireland is definitely in a stronger position now to renegotiate it's debt because it did what the Germans requested. The yes vote demonstrates Ireland is not to be messed with.

Tbh I think Ireland's situation will be a long way off the EU agenda, as the very survival of the Euro is the main issue. It looks very grim indeed for the Euro and it may go down to, every man for himself. Voting for the Treaty may just be papering over the cracks and a small boost for the EU, but trivial in the scale of the problems that we in the Eurozone are in.

TheInquisitor

superluck wrote: »

Ireland is definitely in a stronger position now to renegotiate it's debt because it did what the Germans requested. The yes vote demonstrates Ireland is not to be messed with.

You couldn't be more wrong. Ever! Whats stronger " germany we want a debt deal or we'll take you all down with us" or "Germany now that we've signed our lives away and have no way back will you now do this debt deal for us, oh and if you say no there's nothing we can do anyway "?

later12

I would be skeptical that Ireland's Referendum result will now deliver a bank deal - I think the Spanish and Italian crises are going to deliver our deal. In that respect, I think Kenny is playing politics.

I'm not sure if anyone was following the Taoiseach's words last night, but they were pretty amusing: "I feel a change of attitude among European leaders for dealing with our issues politically" and "Ireland's competitiveness has improved. We've moved from 24th to 20th in the world in terms of competitiveness" - it was as if the TSCG was some sort of gigantic issue for European policymakers or as though its ratification were somehow related to our apparent improvements in competitiveness. Really silly stuff, and this seems, on the face of it, to be more of the same.

Like everyone else, I hope it's true. But lets wait and see, shall we?

RichardAnd

books4sale wrote: »

How do you know Kenny was afraid to debate in a TV studio, where did you pull that misinformation from. Did he say that publicly?

Enda Kenny is the leader of this country as voted by the Irish people, I don't want to see our leader wasting time in TV studios debating with a bunch of nobodys.

Let the man do his job, which is to lead this country as a strong and proud member of the European Union.

Together we stand tall, divided we fall.

I'm sorry that you see other people in such a light because a fundamental of democracy is that there are no "nobodies".

books4sale

RichardAnd wrote: »

I'm sorry that you see other people in such a light because a fundamental of democracy is that there are no "nobodies".

I'm not sorry.

'Nobodies' are people that want to be somebody, isn't that what politics are power are all about.

Don't tell me that nobody in the government wants to lead the country as Taoiseach. It's the highest office in the country and what they all aspire to, and before you tell me that they are there to work for the people. I never met a politician who didn't work for him or herself first. They think of themselves first, party second, country third and well people fourth, (every few years when they need a vote).

Good loser

TheInquisitor wrote: »

You couldn't be more wrong. Ever! Whats stronger " germany we want a debt deal or we'll take you all down with us" or "Germany now that we've signed our lives away and have no way back will you now do this debt deal for us, oh and if you say no there's nothing we can do anyway "?

But that would be blackmail and the 'NO' side would never countenance that!
Or would they?

When you have power (i.e. money) it's easy to cut deals. We don't so we must be shrewd and subtle.

As mentioned above the Euro is tottering. The whole Zone will be lucky to have it intact at years end - with us on the inside. Luck will have a lot to do with it.

Going Forward

books4sale wrote: »

Maybe you all missed the point.

The Irish people voted 'YES', that's what we now have to negociate with, there are no other alternatives. :pac:

We now actually have less bargaining power having passed the referendum, so in reality Enda will have no real options but keep his head down for the forseeable future.

He had to say something by way of thanks for the result.......

onemorechance

books4sale wrote: »

I'm not sorry.

'Nobodies' are people that want to be somebody, isn't that what politics are power are all about.

Don't tell me that nobody in the government wants to lead the country as Taoiseach. It's the highest office in the country and what they all aspire to, and before you tell me that they are there to work for the people. I never met a politician who didn't work for him or herself first. They think of themselves first, party second, country third and well people fourth, (every few years when they need a vote).

Many people get into politics, possibly even most people get into politics due to a desire to change and hopefully improve the society and world in which they live.

There are many local councillors, t.d.'s etc. who work long hours, 7 days a week dealing with issues as mundane as someone's bin not being picked up to helping someone who has being made homeless.

It's just sad that in the Dáil for example that there is such division and competition between parties and individuals that in this time of national crisis they could not put all that crap behind them and all work together to find the best solution for Ireland.

There should also be more freedom to change key personnel within key civil service departments such as Finance and Health when the Minister decides and especially in a change of Government.

TheInquisitor

Good loser wrote: »

But that would be blackmail and the 'NO' side would never countenance that!
Or would they?

When you have power (i.e. money) it's easy to cut deals. We don't so we must be shrewd and subtle.

As mentioned above the Euro is tottering. The whole Zone will be lucky to have it intact at years end - with us on the inside. Luck will have a lot to do with it.

Of course it would be blackmail . Whats wrong with that? We should be subtle? What?? We should be screaming bloody murder for better terms. Constantly bringing it up at every single meeting . We had power, we had a vote. Now we have no power.

onemorechance

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Of course it would be blackmail . Whats wrong with that? We should be subtle? What?? We should be screaming bloody murder for better terms. Constantly bringing it up at every single meeting . We had power, we had a vote. Now we have no power.

It does seem to be the case. Ireland had a huge chance to negotiate prior to the vote, just like they did with previous referendums to get changes made to help Ireland.

Now we have voted yes, we have saved the EU a potential headache and they can move on and essentially forget about Ireland, they have bigger problems in Greece and Spain.

It's sad that Eamonn Gilmore stood up in the Dáil and said that he would welcome it if Hollande did get some growth measures added into the treaty at a later date, but was happy to push for the yes vote without that. Why did they not push for it themselves!!?? Say to the other EU members that they need this to ensure a yes vote in Ireland. They asked for NOTHING! They should have been demanding, but they didn't even ask!

As another poster said, if Enda could not debate the issue on tv with his Irish counterparts, who all essentially want the best for Ireland, then what hope is there in him being able to negotiate, let alone debate the issues with his European counterparts who have their own interests?

His state of the nation address seems even more sad and pathetic now, a pointless speech made to fulfil his own personal goals in being leader of the country and a sign of his near complete ineptitude for the role.

It's seems to be the case that a ruthless streak is needed to be the leader of a country, you must be the alpha male, Enda is a nice guy, but he is not an alpha male.

Good loser

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Of course it would be blackmail . Whats wrong with that? We should be subtle? What?? We should be screaming bloody murder for better terms. Constantly bringing it up at every single meeting . We had power, we had a vote. Now we have no power.

That's childish -the logic (so called) of Vincent Browne, Shane Ross, Declan Ganley and Sinn Fein etc. In other words all the clowns.

We're getting €100 bn at 1%. What do you want?

onemorechance

Good loser wrote: »

That's childish -the logic (so called) of Vincent Browne, Shane Ross, Declan Ganley and Sinn Fein etc. In other words all the clowns.

We're getting €100 bn at 1%. What do you want?

The EU/IMF loan is around 3.5 to 4% I think.

The EU could share the burden of the bank bailout, especially as Irish banks owe much of the money to other European banks. They could allow Ireland to default on a certain percentage of bond holder payments. Even a 10% reduction would be a HUGE saving.

Sand

later12 wrote: »

I would be skeptical that Ireland's Referendum result will now deliver a bank deal - I think the Spanish and Italian crises are going to deliver our deal. In that respect, I think Kenny is playing politics.

I'm not sure of that tbh. The much maligned Greeks stubbornness delivered us a minor reprieve from the crucifying terms of the original November 2010 deal. The Spanish and Italians crisis may lead to a deal, but theres a very limited pot in the ESM, and the Germans are vehemently against increasing it - it may be exhausted by the Spanish and Italian deal if there is even one. We Irish may be told that our deficit is nothing to do with the banks (as many posters on this board will tell you - Ireland's problems as they stand are nothing to do with banks - good negotiating stance lads). Ireland has just endorsed the strategy and narrative of the November 2010 bailout, which is that of a short term liquidity problem on the part of reckless sovereigns. We have no grounds to expect any retrospective "bank debt" bailout, even if Spain, Italy and Greece get one.

Kenny isn't playing politics, he is being played. Kenny, Noonan, Gilmore and Co. similarly talked up the ECB's debt of gratitude to Ireland, our status as a poster boy of austerity, etc back in Jan and Feb of this year. They got punched in the face and sent crying back home when they asked for a deal on the promissory notes.

Ireland - both the government and the people by the latest referendum - are consistently telling the world that the problem is that of a fiscally reckless sovereign, and that the Nov 2010 bailout will work. So if the plan is working, why change it and invite moral hazard in the face of a German electorate intensely hostile to any idea (no matter how incorrect) that Germany is being mugged?


@Good loser

When you have power (i.e. money) it's easy to cut deals. We don't so we must be shrewd and subtle.

If we dont have power, how come we must grant so much of it to foreign government to run the rule over us?

Power is a matter of perception. We have power. Our government is simply too cowardly to even conceive that we might have power, so advises our people to surrender whatever shreds of it exist. Shrewd and subtle? Where the promissory note deal as our reward for years of dropping our pants and bending over the negotiating table?

We're getting €100 bn at 1%. What do you want?

We?

We're not getting anything like 100bn at 1% - the banks are. Are you a bank? I'm not.

Good loser

Sand wrote: »

I'm not sure of that tbh.


@Good loser


If we dont have power, how come we must grant so much of it to foreign government to run the rule over us?

Power is a matter of perception. We have power. Our government is simply too cowardly to even conceive that we might have power, so advises our people to surrender whatever shreds of it exist. Shrewd and subtle? Where the promissory note deal as our reward for years of dropping our pants and bending over the negotiating table?

No. Power is real. We don't have money so we don't have power. Our lack of money is clear to Europe.

The promissory note 'deal' - as you call it - gave us, i.e. allowed us to print, €32 bn on a promise to pay it off over ten years.

Some now want to renege on that deal - after the first instalment was repaid.



We?

We're not getting anything like 100bn at 1% - the banks are. Are you a bank? I'm not.

The Irish economy - through the banks. Every borrower, every depositor, every shareholder including our Government.

Sand

I'm neither a borrower nor a depositor, nor a shareholder with any Irish bank. So, again, whose this "we" you speak of?

And the Irish banks are simply not lending at all to the Irish economy. This is being shown by credit in the Irish economy collapsing by all measurable means.

So, yet again, whose this "we" you speak of?

the groutch

he's done it the wrong way round.
he should have been saying to them BEFORE the election "give us better terms, or I'll tell the people to vote NO"

Good loser

Sand wrote: »

I'm neither a borrower nor a depositor, nor a shareholder with any Irish bank. So, again, whose this "we" you speak of?

And the Irish banks are simply not lending at all to the Irish economy. This is being shown by credit in the Irish economy collapsing by all measurable means.

So, yet again, whose this "we" you speak of?

We are the depositors, the borrowers and the shareholders. Certainly the majority of Irish adults. And you are, at least, a shareholder through the Government. Also the banks on lend quite a lot of this money to the Govt so they can meet their committments. The banks profits such as they are are used to pay for the Govt guarantee - at least €1 bn per annum.

[Jackass]

New low for forum.

Government achieves goal of yes vote => Government now committed to refocus energies on securing better terms on bailout agreement => ??? => Government being heavily criticised for being cowards, namely Enda Kenny?

Clearly patience is running out and memories are shortening, but the very point that we are a small country makes these deals difficult to negotiate, and we have to be tactical. Anyone with an absolute shred of negotiating experience or knowledge knows that threats are absolutely counter productive, it's not a hostile engagement, and you have to play ball, do your bits (i.e. treaty) and look for your concessions.

We also have to wait on terms for Spain, a much much more powerful nation, and then look to get any of their concessions applied to us also, retrospectively, as the deal was the first nations will get the better terms.

People who criticise Enda Kenny (all of you in this thread) simply have not got the first clue about the position we're in and how to handle it. You make it out like he's a joke, yet the biggest joke is the idea that he would storm into the European Parliament and start banging on the table with his demands, or else....

THAT would be the moment the other leaders laughed at us, whilst turning off the tap of funding, and why would they bother negotiating with us if we're unreasonable?

And what will they say if we cause major problems and don't play ball with our first bailout and need a second? You'll be sure they'll put a condition of "non-negotiable" on stricter terms to force us to comply...

Please, none of you, ever consider a career in diplomatic relations...

Scofflaw

the groutch wrote: »

he's done it the wrong way round.
he should have been saying to them BEFORE the election "give us better terms, or I'll tell the people to vote NO"

That's based on a view that there is no way to negotiate except by banging the table and threatening. How do you ever get to a win-win by that method? Or do you believe there is no such thing as a win-win?

cordially,
Scofflaw

RichardAnd

Scofflaw wrote: »

That's based on a view that there is no way to negotiate except by banging the table and threatening. How do you ever get to a win-win by that method? Or do you believe there is no such thing as a win-win?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Whilst I would normally agree with you that all negotiation should be carried out in a polite and mature manner, table banging and sensationalist threats are a well established method in European politics.

Our good friend, Mr Sarkozy was very fond of such antics.

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/sarkozy-threatens-to-quit-zone-3046726.html

Going Forward

[Jackass] wrote: »

New low for forum.

Government achieves goal of yes vote => Government now committed to refocus energies on securing better terms on bailout agreement => ??? => Government being heavily criticised for being cowards, namely Enda Kenny?

Clearly patience is running out and memories are shortening, but the very point that we are a small country makes these deals difficult to negotiate, and we have to be tactical. Anyone with an absolute shred of negotiating experience or knowledge knows that threats are absolutely counter productive, it's not a hostile engagement, and you have to play ball, do your bits (i.e. treaty) and look for your concessions.

We also have to wait on terms for Spain, a much much more powerful nation, and then look to get any of their concessions applied to us also, retrospectively, as the deal was the first nations will get the better terms.

People who criticise Enda Kenny (all of you in this thread) simply have not got the first clue about the position we're in and how to handle it. You make it out like he's a joke, yet the biggest joke is the idea that he would storm into the European Parliament and start banging on the table with his demands, or else....

THAT would be the moment the other leaders laughed at us, whilst turning off the tap of funding, and why would they bother negotiating with us if we're unreasonable?

And what will they say if we cause major problems and don't play ball with our first bailout and need a second? You'll be sure they'll put a condition of "non-negotiable" on stricter terms to force us to comply...

Please, none of you, ever consider a career in diplomatic relations...

In essence then, you agree with me that he is actually just going to keep the head down from here on in.

We are quite low on the pecking list, but politically speaking, a bit of grandstanding generally goes down well with the electorate, local and European.

The diplomatic approach is the only option left at the present time, but had that been put forward as policy by FG one wonders whether they would have more credibility nationally instead of being on the defensive over never having sought any writedown, burning bondholders, red cents etc.

But it does show that FG and Labour were quite content to lie to get into office.

Sand

@Good Loser

We are the depositors, the borrowers and the shareholders. Certainly the majority of Irish adults. And you are, at least, a shareholder through the Government. Also the banks on lend quite a lot of this money to the Govt so they can meet their committments. The banks profits such as they are are used to pay for the Govt guarantee - at least €1 bn per annum.

No, "we" are not. "We" - the Irish people, the Irish state - are not getting any 100 billion at 1%. That's a point of fact. I'm not going to negotiate on it. Accept it or ignore it as it pleases you.


In other news, Merkel has issued some comments which would be truly puzzling if you believed the fiscal pact was about giving her the political cover to make some concessions towards fiscal transfers/joint liabilities.

GERMAN CHANCELLOR Angela Merkel has delivered her most strident rejection yet of eurobonds, saying she would agree to jointly issued euro zone debt “under no circumstances”.

So there's nothing to suggest Merkel perceives the fiscal pact as any sort of tradeoff - or at least not any sort of tradeoff where we get anything in return.

@Scofflaw

That's based on a view that there is no way to negotiate except by banging the table and threatening.

That's true, it is. There's a whole range of negotiating - from banging the table and screaming on one end, and not daring to seek a deal at all on the other. Surely Kenny could have aimed for something less than screaming and banging the table, yet more than not daring to seek a deal at all?

I am getting the sense that people are trying to make a virtue of inaction and incompetence. Anyone remember Kenny's advice to Ross in the Dail back in March? Ross was challenging Kenny to get a deal on the promissory notes, and Kenny made some nudge-nudge-wink-wink comment along the lines of "the wise mouth is silent"? All the media in Official Ireland swooned in delight, assuring everyone that Kenny had a deal up his sleeves, that Ireland was working behind the scenes with the ECB, etc, etc. And the harsh truth was the ECB said no deal on the promissory notes, leaving Kenny and Co scrambling to do something that could be spun as a deal.

The "good boy" approach has won us nothing so far bar patronising public putdowns by the like of Oli Rehn. The only relaxation of terms we have received is from the "bad boy" Greeks who won a concession on the interest rates, which was extended to us by default.

jank

[Jackass] wrote: »

New low for forum.

Government achieves goal of yes vote => Government now committed to refocus energies on securing better terms on bailout agreement => ??? => Government being heavily criticised for being cowards, namely Enda Kenny?

Clearly patience is running out and memories are shortening, but the very point that we are a small country makes these deals difficult to negotiate, and we have to be tactical. Anyone with an absolute shred of negotiating experience or knowledge knows that threats are absolutely counter productive, it's not a hostile engagement, and you have to play ball, do your bits (i.e. treaty) and look for your concessions.

We also have to wait on terms for Spain, a much much more powerful nation, and then look to get any of their concessions applied to us also, retrospectively, as the deal was the first nations will get the better terms.

People who criticise Enda Kenny (all of you in this thread) simply have not got the first clue about the position we're in and how to handle it. You make it out like he's a joke, yet the biggest joke is the idea that he would storm into the European Parliament and start banging on the table with his demands, or else....

THAT would be the moment the other leaders laughed at us, whilst turning off the tap of funding, and why would they bother negotiating with us if we're unreasonable?

And what will they say if we cause major problems and don't play ball with our first bailout and need a second? You'll be sure they'll put a condition of "non-negotiable" on stricter terms to force us to comply...

Please, none of you, ever consider a career in diplomatic relations...

Agreed. You would swear real life is like a video game or an episode of the Sopranos. Ireland isn't that important to Europe.

[Jackass]

Going Forward wrote: »

In essence then, you agree with me that he is actually just going to keep the head down from here on in.

We are quite low on the pecking list, but politically speaking, a bit of grandstanding generally goes down well with the electorate, local and European.

The diplomatic approach is the only option left at the present time, but had that been put forward as policy by FG one wonders whether they would have more credibility nationally instead of being on the defensive over never having sought any writedown, burning bondholders, red cents etc.

But it does show that FG and Labour were quite content to lie to get into office.

I'm not sure I'd call it a lie, but I do understand the frustration from the electorate. FG in particular talked about strong will in negotiating with Europe, but the landscape of Europe has changed dramatically since then.

I'm not sure if the scale of the Greece crisis was known at the time, and certainly the Spanish and Italian situation wasn't, but at the time of the elections I seem to recall that we were at the very forefront of the European discussion as we were fresh into the rescue package, but the timing was unfortunate, as almost the week they came in to power, problems elsewhere escelated dramatically, and I do remember the first meeting of the European leaders that Enda Kenny attended, he talked of his frustration at how Ireland had slipped down the pecking order of importance, as bigger problems were dominating the talks (i.e Greece and later Italy and Spain).

It's difficult to negotiate if you can't get your issue on the agenda, and whilst you can talk in private to other leaders, the only action that takes place is when all the leaders are sat together in a summit, and you are the topic of discussion and they can vote and ratify amendments. This oppertunity has not come.

I feel for Endas position, as he hasn't been able to deliver on his promise, I agree with that, but I just don't think it's for a lack of trying and circumstances have not favoured him, but I definitely think politically, he and the current Government will suffer, I just am of the opinion that the recovery is going reasonably well in terms of inward investment and stabalising expenditure and services which were in absolute free fall when they came in.

To an extent they have to bide their time with Europe, there's nothing they can do about it, but aggressive threats and "rocking the boat" will get them no where.

The biggest problem they'll face is how long the memory of the electorate is, and how much they're willing to recognise and remember and give them credit for the good they do, and how much they will blame them for the things they can't do anything about.

Personally, I trust this Government, particularly Noonan, who I think is the brains behind it all, and an incredibly competent man. Kenny isn't exactly straight out of the Kennedy dynasty when it comes to charisma, but I think he's an honest and capable leader and I think he will do all he can to lead us to recovery, and I think they're doing a good job, but as I say, I can understand peoples frustration, and it's expected given the circumstance that they would lose popularity, I just hope the Irish don't sabotage themselves as usual and get rid of the good boyfriend because it's just a rebound, and get back together with the bad boy, dangerous boyfriend who we know is wrong for us, but just can't stay away from, in the next election. (to use a weird analogy).

Scofflaw

RichardAnd wrote: »

Whilst I would normally agree with you that all negotiation should be carried out in a polite and mature manner, table banging and sensationalist threats are a well established method in European politics.

Our good friend, Mr Sarkozy was very fond of such antics.

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/sarkozy-threatens-to-quit-zone-3046726.html

And how much of what M. Sarkozy wanted did he get? And when has banging the table and threatening achieved anything for Ireland?

Sand wrote:

That's true, it is. There's a whole range of negotiating - from banging the table and screaming on one end, and not daring to seek a deal at all on the other. Surely Kenny could have aimed for something less than screaming and banging the table, yet more than not daring to seek a deal at all?

I am getting the sense that people are trying to make a virtue of inaction and incompetence. Anyone remember Kenny's advice to Ross in the Dail back in March? Ross was challenging Kenny to get a deal on the promissory notes, and Kenny made some nudge-nudge-wink-wink comment along the lines of "the wise mouth is silent"? All the media in Official Ireland swooned in delight, assuring everyone that Kenny had a deal up his sleeves, that Ireland was working behind the scenes with the ECB, etc, etc. And the harsh truth was the ECB said no deal on the promissory notes, leaving Kenny and Co scrambling to do something that could be spun as a deal.

The "good boy" approach has won us nothing so far bar patronising public putdowns by the like of Oli Rehn. The only relaxation of terms we have received is from the "bad boy" Greeks who won a concession on the interest rates, which was extended to us by default.

Interestingly, that's not the view from outside: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/may/18/ireland-bailout-terms-interest-rate

The change applied at the same time to Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, although the Greek bailout was funded separately. I think dismissing it as "by default" is rather too strong a narrative - particularly since whatever one chooses to call it, or however much one likes to scoff at it as "being patted on the head" or whatever, the fact remains that we have a bailout facility worth tens of billions at far less than market rates, and under largely self-imposed conditions and targets, while retaining a reputation as a stable and business-friendly environment. The effects of the crisis on Ireland remain pretty much limited to the self-inflicted wounds of the property bubble, with a general expectation of, well, 'stability'.

Certainly it can all still go pear-shaped, but to date the outcomes have been very much less awful than they could have been.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sand

Certainly it can all still go pear-shaped, but to date the outcomes have been very much less awful than they could have been

Well, its a bit odd to presume that things could still go pear-shaped, and that outcomes have been very much less awful than they otherwise could have been.

If we start from say October 2008 (so, the bank bailout and its "We are where we are" logic is in play) the outcomes that have followed are:

- Irish sovereign bonds downgraded to junk.
- Irish sovereign has lost practical market access
- Irelands gov debt has soared from 44% of GDP to 108% GDP at year end 2011
- Irelands deficit has *increased* from 7.3% to 13.1%
- General government spending is *significantly* greater in 2011 than it was in 2008 as a % of GDP, whilst gov revenue is static. Spending is also greater in 2011 than was planned for under the NRP 2011-2014 projections.
- Unemployment at 14.3%, with half that number being defined as long term unemployed
- 10.2% of Irish mortgages (77,000 mortgages) are in arrears of greater than 3 months - 7.8% are in arrears of more than 6 months. Almost half of all restructured mortgages are already *back* in arrears.
- NAMA is in increasing difficulties and is demonstrating exactly why its bad to have an unaccountable, politically connected bad bank: property prices have declined by at least 50% from peak and NAMA is resorting to increasingly desperate plays to "get the property market moving again", lending both to developers and buyers.
- The ring-fenced National Pension Reserve Fund has been raided and invested incredibly poorly in a short term driven agenda. It was supposed to address the widely telegraphed pension funding crisis coming down the tracks as Ireland gets older, and pensioners live for longer. This has been reinforced by a short term wealth grab on private pension funds.
- There have been 5 Irish bank bailouts to date, with a cost of 70 billion Euro so far - not counting the less easily quantified costs of the influence of the bailouts on sovereign policy in other areas. The FR, Matthew Elderfield, has recently announced that despite assurances last time out that this was the end of the matter a further injection of capital on the scale of 3-4 billion will be required. It is hoped that this will be privately raised.
- As predicted at the time, Ireland has wound up nationalizing practically its entire banking system by the most expensive and time consuming way possible.
- Banking competition has declined with knock on effects for the average Irish person: a significant number of banks (Lloyds being the latest) not considered sufficiently Irish to be "pillar banks" have departed from the Irish economy as its hard for them to compete with government backed "pillar banks". This is contributing to the drying up of sources of SME lending, highlighted by the CBI
- Credit in Ireland has seized up despite immense amounts of taxpayer funds being poured into the banks: the IBF have noted that only 450 million in mortgages were approved in Q1 2012, down from 3.6 billion in Q4 2008 and down from 11 billion in Q3 2006.
- Growth has not emerged on anything like the scale imagined by the National Recovery Plan which prayed for 2.5% annual growth between 2011 and 2014. The government strategy was already produced by people on a lot of psychotropic drugs, so its not built for robust encounters with reality.
- Ireland's problems have been pushed into the background by the strife in Spain and Italy. What happens to Ireland is not important for German or Spanish politicians. Political goodwill has dried up as the damaging "extend and pretend" strategy which Ireland fully subscribes to (even today) has burnt out solidarity.

I mean, if you were posting back in late 2008 Id presume you'd consider the above to be a ridiculously pessimistic prediction - surely things could never get so bad? Yet they have and did.

So I'd hope you'd allow that whilst things could be worse, they could and should be a lot better for Ireland - if our leaders had ever dared to represent our interests instead of hoping someone else would then they would be.

Good loser

Sand wrote: »

@Good Loser

No, "we" are not. "We" - the Irish people, the Irish state - are not getting any 100 billion at 1%. That's a point of fact. I'm not going to negotiate on it. Accept it or ignore it as it pleases you.

The Central Bank gets this money. That is 'us' - the State.

Further the State (us/we) own all tne banks except for 85% of BOI.

Right now the State and the Banks are virtually synonymous.

Read the posts by Jackass - these tell it as it is in the real world.

You describe our dilemnas but your prescriptions are woefully simplistic.

Banging a table as a negotiating tactic is Stone Age stuff.

Scofflaw

Sand wrote: »

Well, its a bit odd to presume that things could still go pear-shaped, and that outcomes have been very much less awful than they otherwise could have been.

If we start from say October 2008 (so, the bank bailout and its "We are where we are" logic is in play) the outcomes that have followed are:

- Irish sovereign bonds downgraded to junk.
- Irish sovereign has lost practical market access
- Irelands gov debt has soared from 44% of GDP to 108% GDP at year end 2011
- Irelands deficit has *increased* from 7.3% to 13.1%
- General government spending is *significantly* greater in 2011 than it was in 2008 as a % of GDP, whilst gov revenue is static. Spending is also greater in 2011 than was planned for under the NRP 2011-2014 projections.
- Unemployment at 14.3%, with half that number being defined as long term unemployed
- 10.2% of Irish mortgages (77,000 mortgages) are in arrears of greater than 3 months - 7.8% are in arrears of more than 6 months. Almost half of all restructured mortgages are already *back* in arrears.
- NAMA is in increasing difficulties and is demonstrating exactly why its bad to have an unaccountable, politically connected bad bank: property prices have declined by at least 50% from peak and NAMA is resorting to increasingly desperate plays to "get the property market moving again", lending both to developers and buyers.
- The ring-fenced National Pension Reserve Fund has been raided and invested incredibly poorly in a short term driven agenda. It was supposed to address the widely telegraphed pension funding crisis coming down the tracks as Ireland gets older, and pensioners live for longer. This has been reinforced by a short term wealth grab on private pension funds.
- There have been 5 Irish bank bailouts to date, with a cost of 70 billion Euro so far - not counting the less easily quantified costs of the influence of the bailouts on sovereign policy in other areas. The FR, Matthew Elderfield, has recently announced that despite assurances last time out that this was the end of the matter a further injection of capital on the scale of 3-4 billion will be required. It is hoped that this will be privately raised.
- As predicted at the time, Ireland has wound up nationalizing practically its entire banking system by the most expensive and time consuming way possible.
- Banking competition has declined with knock on effects for the average Irish person: a significant number of banks (Lloyds being the latest) not considered sufficiently Irish to be "pillar banks" have departed from the Irish economy as its hard for them to compete with government backed "pillar banks". This is contributing to the drying up of sources of SME lending, highlighted by the CBI
- Credit in Ireland has seized up despite immense amounts of taxpayer funds being poured into the banks: the IBF have noted that only 450 million in mortgages were approved in Q1 2012, down from 3.6 billion in Q4 2008 and down from 11 billion in Q3 2006.
- Growth has not emerged on anything like the scale imagined by the National Recovery Plan which prayed for 2.5% annual growth between 2011 and 2014. The government strategy was already produced by people on a lot of psychotropic drugs, so its not built for robust encounters with reality.
- Ireland's problems have been pushed into the background by the strife in Spain and Italy. What happens to Ireland is not important for German or Spanish politicians. Political goodwill has dried up as the damaging "extend and pretend" strategy which Ireland fully subscribes to (even today) has burnt out solidarity.

I mean, if you were posting back in late 2008 Id presume you'd consider the above to be a ridiculously pessimistic prediction - surely things could never get so bad? Yet they have and did.

So I'd hope you'd allow that whilst things could be worse, they could and should be a lot better for Ireland - if our leaders had ever dared to represent our interests instead of hoping someone else would then they would be.

I don't think I would have considered where we are as "a ridiculously pessimistic prediction" in 2008. Much of it is a pretty predictable outcome of the bursting of the property bubble, and some of it is very standard recession fare - the official "reasons" banks don't lend in a recession may vary, but that they don't is invariable. The unemployment I consider surprisingly low, although much of that will be the emigration valve releasing some of the pressure. Government growth predictions not being met is also extremely predictable, but to be honest that there is growth at this stage I also find fairly surprising.

I would say that compared to my personal "worst case" scenarios, this is - to put a number on it - about a quarter or a third as bad. And, to be honest, while I can see some relatively small ways in which things might be better, the only way things could be a lot better is if the rest of Europe had simply taken on chunks of our debt themselves. Unfortunately, there has never been any reason for them to do so - and the idea is frankly bizarre, or would be, were it not for the experience of the past fourty years.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Going Forward

Mssrs. Kenny, Noonan, and Gilmore have little in their political CVs and 30+ plus each mediocre years of public service which would foster much confidence that they are capable of anything other than playing the long game and hoping for the best.

And unless they negotiate something substantial on behalf of the electorate, despite the fact that it was FF who signed the deal with the Troika, they will be remembered and reviled in the next election for so enthusiastically bringing in the full blown PT for example.

They have got to start using some more initiative in raising revenues.

They promised not to raise income tax, but as the electorate is now so disengaged going on the recent turnout, there will hardly be a revolution if that promise was also now broken, particularly if it is in lieu of some discount elsewhere.

They really appear to be playing political suicide at present.
Sinn Fein is in the wings, and FG will surely follow Labour slowly downwards unless they save their own skins by actually delivering on something from the Troika.

jank

Going Forward wrote: »

They really appear to be playing political suicide at present.
Sinn Fein is in the wings, and FG will surely follow Labour slowly downwards unless they save their own skins by actually delivering on something from the Troika.

FG will not drop as people think. FG voters will not in any way shape or form vote for the ULA or SF. They may vote for FF or and indo but thats about it.

I will say it again. The next election will bring FG and FF into power as a coalition, thus ending civil war politics forever. Labour will be the big losers in this.

20Cent

Looks like a deal on bank debt is off the table, that's if it ever was.

Berlin says bank deal for Ireland would send wrong signal
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0605/1224317296513.html
Taoiseach Enda Kenny raised the bank debt issue with German chancellor Angela Merkel last Friday, but senior German officials dispute Mr Kenny’s interpretation of Ireland’s fiscal treaty vote as a “message to European Union leaders” for a “just” debt deal.

“We see no need for movement at the moment,” said Martin Kotthaus, spokesman for finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

bull_ring

20Cent wrote: »

Looks like a deal on bank debt is off the table, that's if it ever was.

Berlin says bank deal for Ireland would send wrong signal
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0605/1224317296513.html
Taoiseach Enda Kenny raised the bank debt issue with German chancellor Angela Merkel last Friday, but senior German officials dispute Mr Kenny’s interpretation of Ireland’s fiscal treaty vote as a “message to European Union leaders” for a “just” debt deal.

“We see no need for movement at the moment,” said Martin Kotthaus, spokesman for finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

have we shot our bolt given last friday,s result

creedp

Varied wrote: »

Well done yes voters. Like good little sheep you voted on a referendum before even trying to negotiate a deal in relation to this burden.

After the dust settles it would be very illuminating to have an objective discussion around what the Treaty means for this country rather than the partisian screamings on both sides of the divide during the run up to the Vote. Lets be honest and say the reason many many of us voted yes was becasue we (as individuals) were afraid to vote 'No' as it might have had negative impacts on our lifestyles. Were the have's or have not's more likely to vote 'Yes'?

It also begs the question as to what role (or worth) the Referendum Commission actually has in these Votes. Another less that useful Quango!

Godge

creedp wrote: »

After the dust settles it would be very illuminating to have an objective discussion around what the Treaty means for this country rather than the partisian screamings on both sides of the divide during the run up to the Vote. Lets be honest and say the reason many many of us voted yes was becasue we (as individuals) were afraid to vote 'No' as it might have had negative impacts on our lifestyles. Were the have's or have not's more likely to vote 'Yes'?

It also begs the question as to what role (or worth) the Referendum Commission actually has in these Votes. Another less that useful Quango!

What would be surprising to a non-partisan viewer would be that those constituencies with most to lose from the cutting off/ending of EU/IMF funding were among those with the strongest "No" vote. The two Donegal constituencies and the working-class Dublin constituencies would be seen as those benefitting most from subsidies, welfare payments and grants yet they voted "no" despite the risk/fear that a "no" vote would cause us to lose access to that funding.

Is that a sign that the so-called scaremongering tactics of the "yes" campaign did not work? Or is it like the other example of the confused socialist opposing wealth taxes like household and water charges?

paddy0090

We're already borrowing at exceptionally low rates(Effectively negative or close to it). It's hard to imagine they could get anything sizeable as the bank debt is only one part of the total debt.
I have my suspicions that if they get anything they'll count it as part of there cuts for the year i.e they'll cut less. They have access to the ESM now. So you'll end up paying for it anyway.

bull_ring

Godge wrote: »

What would be surprising to a non-partisan viewer would be that those constituencies with most to lose from the cutting off/ending of EU/IMF funding were among those with the strongest "No" vote. The two Donegal constituencies and the working-class Dublin constituencies would be seen as those benefitting most from subsidies, welfare payments and grants yet they voted "no" despite the risk/fear that a "no" vote would cause us to lose access to that funding.

Is that a sign that the so-called scaremongering tactics of the "yes" campaign did not work? Or is it like the other example of the confused socialist opposing wealth taxes like household and water charges?

donegal voted NO because sinn fein are strong there

K-9

bull_ring wrote: »

donegal voted NO because sinn fein are strong there

Nope, Donegal generally votes No anyway, pre SF popularity there.

20Cent

Godge wrote: »

What would be surprising to a non-partisan viewer would be that those constituencies with most to lose from the cutting off/ending of EU/IMF funding were among those with the strongest "No" vote. The two Donegal constituencies and the working-class Dublin constituencies would be seen as those benefitting most from subsidies, welfare payments and grants yet they voted "no" despite the risk/fear that a "no" vote would cause us to lose access to that funding.

Is that a sign that the so-called scaremongering tactics of the "yes" campaign did not work? Or is it like the other example of the confused socialist opposing wealth taxes like household and water charges?

Working class areas have lost the most from austerity measures and cuts. They voted no because it clearly is not working and they are the most patriotic areas as well so the loss of sovereignty is a big issue.

bull_ring

K-9 wrote: »

Nope, Donegal generally votes No anyway, pre SF popularity there.

good for them , i voted NO and i dont vote SF