Where are the exit polls?

Mint Sauce

Not referring to exit polls being broadcast either before or after the close of election, but someone actully coming up to you to ask if they mind how you voted.

I have never been asked in a survey how I voted, thats every election, referendum (barr one) in the last 13 years, and the most recent presidential election.

So do people from news channels, or other media or survey groups actually approach voters leaving the polling station, or have I actully missed the whole concept of exits polls.

Victor

The important part of such polls is that they are random, they don't need to be particularly big.

Polling 1,000 people will normally get you to within about 3% of the actual result, assuming people tell you the truth.

So, assuming an election or referendum every second year, it would take 4,000 years for you to be likely to have been asked in an exit poll.

expectationlost

they press don't seem intereted in doing them but they do come up with interesting results, about why people voted the way they did.

mikemac1

irish-stew wrote: »

I have never been asked in a survey how I voted, thats every election, referendum (barr one) in the last 13 years, and the most recent presidential election.

I used to work in a marketing place that did this work.

Landline phone numbers were taken from the phone book randomly. Well it's done electronically of course, not the actual phone book.
All random though. So say we are doing 01 Dublin , it would pick every number 01 - 67......... for example. Anyone could have those numbers

If you're not in the phone book well you don't get called.

Management and the client (Irish Times, etc) come up with the questions
And it could often happen that we call you, ask some questions and say sorry, actually we don't need you :pac:

Have to find people from every demographic, management tell you who they need

mikemac1

Ah sorry, you're talking about exit polls

I was posting just about the standard polls you see every few months

patwicklow

Well going by Russia today news they are saying a eurowin for Ireland. sky news saying the same votes not even counted yet. very fishy even the poll on here the no side is leading and every one i know has voted no. so looks like if its a yes another big fix!

meglome

patwicklow wrote: »

Well going by Russia today news they are saying a eurowin for Ireland. sky news saying the same votes not even counted yet. very fishy even the poll on here the no side is leading and every one i know has voted no. so looks like if its a yes another big fix!

Yes hundreds of people have been employed to fix it, all of who will be killed when it's over. Then the people who watch them will need to be killed, and the media watching them. Sure it'll be a massacre but no one will tell the tale, though the massacre might be noticed.

P.S they just may be going by available exit polls or wishful thinking.

mikemac1

patwicklow wrote: »

very fishy even the poll on here the no side is leading and every one i know has voted no. so looks like if its a yes another big fix!

When has boards.ie ever been representative of the electorate?

If boards decided elections Fianna Fáil would be wiped out but that's certainly not the case at all
Talking about FF is a bit offtopic, just giving an example

Chucky the tree

patwicklow wrote: »

Well going by Russia today news they are saying a eurowin for Ireland. sky news saying the same votes not even counted yet. very fishy even the poll on here the no side is leading and every one i know has voted no. so looks like if its a yes another big fix!

Of course it's rigged. And obviously when Enda and Gilmore decided to rig they also decided they'd tell all the non-Irish news agencies the result before the count even started. :rolleyes:

K-9

mikemac1 wrote: »

When has boards.ie ever been representative of the electorate?

If boards decided elections Fianna Fáil would be wiped out but that's certainly not the case at all
Talking about FF is a bit offtopic, just giving an example

Yep the Boards General Election poll showed online polls aren't accurate, and Boards went to great lengths to make it as accurate as possible.

Online polls keep showing No side wins, polling agencies Yes side wins, therefore the online polls are right. Perfect example of Confirmation bias as I've ever seen it.

BlitzKrieg

mikemac1 wrote: »

When has boards.ie ever been representative of the electorate?

If boards decided elections Fianna Fáil would be wiped out but that's certainly not the case at all
Talking about FF is a bit offtopic, just giving an example

I think the lisbon 1 referendum poll was actually pretty close.

But the elections and referendums since have been off by a bit I think.

EDIT:

Boards results for lisbon 1 was: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=56236590&postcount=17

Devore wrote:

boards poll predicted a 45.7% Yes vote to a 54.3% No vote (when you exclude the people who didnt vote).

actual results were:

NO 862,415 ... 53.4%

YES 752,451 ... 46.6%

I'll see if I can find the lisbon 2 results...

edit edit: Lisbon 2 results are here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055698954&page=9 but no comparison figure in the thread sadly.

Though both of these are from the politics forum, never trust any poll in after hours it's always blown out of porportion.

femur61

mikemac1 wrote: »

When has boards.ie ever been representative of the electorate?

If boards decided elections Fianna Fáil would be wiped out but that's certainly not the case at all
Talking about FF is a bit offtopic, just giving an example

And over on Politics.ie (don't know if I can mention another board) if the opinion or preference to the user on there SF would be running the country aon Martin Mcguiness would be president.

delta_bravo

It was way off at the last general election. Think FF got 2 seats, SF about 40 in the online constituency poll. Problem with online polls are they are easily shared and those wanting to share them will be campaigners and can easily skew the results if they gets all their friends to vote one way.