Record low turnout for treaty referendum?

Permabear

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ScouseMouse

Bloody hope so!


I work face to face with the public and asked some of my regulars yes or no. About three people said yes. About fifteen said no. I do not know where the official polls are getting their ratios from.

actuallylike

Well it is a Thursday. People are only finishing work by the time that article was released. If that is the true figure at the end of the day, it's quite sad really.

Asking 15 of your regulars may not be a representative sample size of the population, obviously enough. In fact, unless the results are in line with your experience we can conclude it wasn't representative at all :pac:

actuallylike

superscouse wrote: »

I do not know where the official polls are getting their ratios from.

They get them from a broad sample, across the country, from all walks of life, whereas you've just sampled people in your shop.

Sierra Oscar

It is around 30% nationally now. I predict it will be 45%'ish by close of polls.

Permabear

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mikemac1

Irish Times put up that article at 17:23

Lots still in work at that stage or if they've finished they've not voted yet

It's a long evening, lots of time left

later12

While it's true that low turnout usually damages the Yes side, this turnout is neither particularly surprising nor is the margin between the two sides close enough for the outcome to be under any credible doubt.

PopeBuckfastXVI

later12 wrote: »

While it's true that low turnout usually damages the Yes side, this turnout is neither particularly surprising nor is the margin between the two sides close enough for the outcome to be under any credible doubt.

I think it'll be a lot closer than you suspect, a 'no' wouldn't surprise me at all.

later12

later12 wrote: »

While it's true that low turnout usually damages the Yes side, this turnout is neither particularly surprising nor is the margin between the two sides close enough for the outcome to be under any credible doubt.

What's credible? What odds would you give me for a little charity bet? :pac:

adocholiday

It's a disgrace that the turnout is so low. The same people who don't vote will be crying about the result then. We're a great people for shouting about issues that bother us, but too lazy to go to vote. People die in places like Egypt for the right to vote and in some places risk their lives to go to the polling station. Here we don't go because it's bloody raining! :mad:

adocholiday

adocholiday wrote: »

It's a disgrace that the turnout is so low. The same people who don't vote will be crying about the result then. We're a great people for shouting about issues that bother us, but too lazy to go to vote. People die in places like Egypt for the right to vote and in some places risk their lives to go to the polling station. Here we don't go because it's bloody raining! :mad:

Did the Egyptian election even hit 50% turnout?

goat2

adocholiday wrote: »

It's a disgrace that the turnout is so low. The same people who don't vote will be crying about the result then. We're a great people for shouting about issues that bother us, but too lazy to go to vote. People die in places like Egypt for the right to vote and in some places risk their lives to go to the polling station. Here we don't go because it's bloody raining! :mad:

no we will not,
but we will be saying that we did not quiet understand what we were asked to vote on, and any way it will give them time to explain fully what it is all about, also we will have a better picture of what is happening with greece,spain and france so it will be a much clearer picture, as it is it is all up in the air across europe.

WIZE

eh people have been in work all day . It been the non workers making up the %

Scioch

adocholiday wrote: »

It's a disgrace that the turnout is so low. The same people who don't vote will be crying about the result then. We're a great people for shouting about issues that bother us, but too lazy to go to vote. People die in places like Egypt for the right to vote and in some places risk their lives to go to the polling station. Here we don't go because it's bloody raining! :mad:

And if they did vote the same people would be criticising them for voting on something they didnt understand. You cant win here because no matter what ya do there will always be someone saying your wrong to do it.

Permabear

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adocholiday

goat2 wrote: »

no we will not,
but we will be saying that we did not quiet understand what we were asked to vote on, and any way it will give them time to explain fully what it is all about, also we will have a better picture of what is happening with greece,spain and france so it will be a much clearer picture, as it is it is all up in the air across europe.

It took me less than half an hour to research the treaty and what it may/may not do for Ireland. I made an informed decision based on that and voted. It wasn't difficult, we shouldn't have to be spoonfed. I agree that when the whole Greek scenario blew up the referendum should have been pushed back. Enda Kenny's arrogance really gets me sometimes but regardless, the vote went ahead. It's like the people voting No to spite the government etc. Why bother? I heard lots of people explicitly state this. It beggars belief. There's no real excuse for not voting/voting for a different agenda.

Oh and the Egyptian turnout was ~42% but they had a reason to be scared to go to vote. If us Irish were in that scenario probably nobody would turn out to vote!

goat2

adocholiday wrote: »

It took me less than half an hour to research the treaty and what it may/may not do for Ireland. I made an informed decision based on that and voted. It wasn't difficult, we shouldn't have to be spoonfed. I agree that when the whole Greek scenario blew up the referendum should have been pushed back. Enda Kenny's arrogance really gets me sometimes but regardless, the vote went ahead. It's like the people voting No to spite the government etc. Why bother? I heard lots of people explicitly state this. It beggars belief.

Oh and the Egyptian turnout was ~42% but they had a reason to be scared to go to vote.

you hit the nail in the head,
this is what stopped me from voting either way, the greeks, a new man at the helm in france, the spanish and france, these are much bigger and have more power than we have,
and until things are a bit better there, we should be then asked to vote, not today,

oscarBravo

adocholiday wrote: »

I agree that when the whole Greek scenario blew up the referendum should have been pushed back. Enda Kenny's arrogance really gets me sometimes but regardless, the vote went ahead.

It's not constitutionally possible to push back a referendum once the date has been set.

Scioch

adocholiday wrote: »

It took me less than half an hour to research the treaty and what it may/may not do for Ireland. I made an informed decision based on that and voted. It wasn't difficult, we shouldn't have to be spoonfed. I agree that when the whole Greek scenario blew up the referendum should have been pushed back. Enda Kenny's arrogance really gets me sometimes but regardless, the vote went ahead. It's like the people voting No to spite the government etc. Why bother? I heard lots of people explicitly state this. It beggars belief. There's no real excuse for not voting/voting for a different agenda.

The entire no campaign seems to me to be based on an unrelated agenda. Those people your talking about feel as if they are making a difference by voting contrary to the governments wishes and feel that it will be better for Ireland. Same reason you voted however you vote I'm sure.

So if they dont vote they are lazy, if they vote for the wrong reasons they are stupid....so your moaning because you want an ideal world. Why bother ?

Oh and the Egyptian turnout was ~42% but they had a reason to be scared to go to vote. If us Irish were in that scenario probably nobody would turn out to vote!

Well we aint so its irrelevant.

Crucifix

adocholiday wrote: »

It took me less than half an hour to research the treaty and what it may/may not do for Ireland. I made an informed decision based on that and voted. It wasn't difficult, we shouldn't have to be spoonfed.

I said it in the AH thread, but again: I think the treaty itself was easy to understand, but the implications and effects of a yes or no vote, especially long term, are complex and divisive. Spent a long time reading everything I could, still found it a difficult choice.

Technocentral

Sick of people in this country blaming businessmen and politicians on everything and not even bothering to get off their arse's and vote, there should be compulsory voting or a 100 euro fine, its so easy to take, take, take and have no sense of responsibility to your country :mad:.

Predalien

I genuinely could not decide how to vote, so didn't.

beeftotheheels

later12 wrote: »

While it's true that low turnout usually damages the Yes side, this turnout is neither particularly surprising nor is the margin between the two sides close enough for the outcome to be under any credible doubt.

Think you're optimistic there. Polls will have bred complacency on the yes side.

adocholiday

LordSmeg wrote: »

The entire no vote seems to me to be based on an unrelated agenda. Those people your talking about feel as if they are making a difference by voting contrary to the governments wishes and feel that it will be better for Ireland. Same reason you voted however you vote I'm sure.

So if they dont vote they are lazy, if they vote for the wrong reasons they are stupid....so your moaning because you want an ideal. Why bother ?

Sorry but I don't understand your logic. People are voting contrary to the Government's wishes because "Enda Kenny is a gob****e" (actual quote from a lady today). If people are making an informed No vote then great. That's democracy at work I'm all for it. People voting no to stick 2 fingers up at the Government is a totally different scenario. It's childish and counter-productive. Also, some people choose not to vote because they can't make an informed decision. That's fine, no problem with that. The majority of people aren't voting because they're too lazy. There's no justification for not taking 10 minutes to vote if you have a legitimate opinion on the matter at hand. It's a privilege to have the choice to go down to the polling station and have a say.

Technocentral

According to Irish Times poll on voting intentions May 27th: "39 per cent of voters said Yes, 30 per cent said No, 22 per cent said they were undecided 9 per cent said they would not be voting.."

So been conservative we should at least expect a 80% turnout? Yes/no people 69% plus you'd imagine some of the 22% undecided would vote, say 10% of them?

Coillte_Bhoy

superscouse wrote: »

Bloody hope so!


I work face to face with the public and asked some of my regulars yes or no. About three people said yes. About fifteen said no. I do not know where the official polls are getting their ratios from.

From a representative section of the electorate which is probably much more accurate than your ad hoc poll.:rolleyes:

Technocentral

adocholiday wrote: »

Sorry but I don't understand your logic. People are voting contrary to the Government's wishes because "Enda Kenny is a gob****e" (actual quote from a lady today). If people are making an informed No vote then great. That's democracy at work I'm all for it. People voting no to stick 2 fingers up at the Government is a totally different scenario. It's childish and counter-productive. Also, some people choose not to vote because they can't make an informed decision. That's fine, no problem with that. The majority of people aren't voting because they're too lazy. There's no justification for not taking 10 minutes to vote if you have a legitimate opinion on the matter at hand. It's a privilege to have the choice to go down to the polling station and have a say.

I'd say it worse than lazy, its more like showing contempt, kind of like "I want lower taxes, don't want to pay water charges or household tax but why should I bother to partake in huge decisions about how my country is run"

Coillte_Bhoy

Technocentral wrote: »

According to Irish Times poll on voting intentions May 27th: "39 per cent of voters said Yes, 30 per cent said No, 22 per cent said they were undecided 9 per cent said they would not be voting.."

So been conservative we should at least expect a 80% turnout? Yes/no people 69% plus you'd imagine some of the 22% undecided would vote, say 10% of them?

Thepoet85

I took an hour out of my week and did a bit of easy research and came to my conclusion regarding the treaty.

Very sick of people moaning of what a state the country is in, and then don't exercise their right to have a say in how it's run.

Scioch

adocholiday wrote: »

Sorry but I don't understand your logic. People are voting contrary to the Government's wishes because "Enda Kenny is a gob****e" (actual quote from a lady today). If people are making an informed No vote then great. That's democracy at work I'm all for it. People voting no to stick 2 fingers up at the Government is a totally different scenario. It's childish and counter-productive. Also, some people choose not to vote because they can't make an informed decision. That's fine, no problem with that. The majority of people aren't voting because they're too lazy. There's no justification for not taking 10 minutes to vote. It's a privilege to have the choice to go down to the polling station and have a say.

I know some people are voting no just because the government say yes. I agree it doesnt really have anything to do with the referendum itself but it doesnt change the fact that their vote is valid and their reasons are based on what they think is best. Its not just to stick two fingers up to Kenny, they dont trust the government and go the opposite direction. Its no different than anyone else listening to SF/ULA to me, its all based on bullshít thats there to mislead people along with a lot of what the government have been spouting too.

Even some on the yes side will vote yes because they are FG people or they trust someone who told them to vote yes. Those campaigns wouldnt exist if they didnt do anything and what they do is influence people not inform them. Very few people voting are gonna have done enough research to know exactly what they are voting for here and what the outcome of yes/no will be.

Of course it would be great if everyone did some research and took part and had a say and made the "right" decision but not everyone is going to. And you have no real grounds to say they should or that they should vote a certain way. Its a democracy, they can vote whatever way they want, for whatever reasons they want or not even vote at all.

Ozymandius2011

Hold on there Permabear.

The article says that the 15-25% figure was as of 2.30. It's not that now. The last I heard from RTE on the radio was a national turnout of 30% so far.

David Cochrane of politics.ie is tweeting that he has received texts from FG saying the turnout is low and asking for people to vote.

Technocentral

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

I'll explain again, thought it was clear

In that poll of how they said they will vote:

39% yes + 30% no = 69%. 22% were undecided if 10 or 11% of them voted that should be 79/80% turnout not the really low turnout predicted, thats all.

WIZE

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

so 50% of people were working at 4pm leaving 50% to vote and 25% did votd

Scioch

Who are these lazy people complaining about taxes and cuts and not bothering to vote ? Give me names, point them out, back it up. Because I dont know one person who has been vocal on cuts and taxes who isnt likely to vote in this referendum.

Ozymandius2011

On people mentioning polls: yes but it was lazy of commentators to just take as given that the DKs would vote in the same proportions as the rest of the sample.

adocholiday

LordSmeg wrote: »

I know some people are voting no just because the government say yes. I agree it doesnt really have anything to do with the referendum itself but it doesnt change the fact that their vote is valid and their reasons are based on what they think is best. Its not just to stick two fingers up to Kenny, they dont trust the government and go the opposite direction. Its no different than anyone else listening to SF/ULA to me, its all based on bullshít thats there to mislead people along with a lot of what the government have been spouting too.

Even some on the yes side will vote yes because they are FG people or they trust someone who told them to vote yes. Those campaigns wouldnt exist if they didnt do anything and what they do is influence people not inform them. Very few people voting are gonna have done enough research to know exactly what they are voting for here and what the outcome of yes/no will be.

Of course it would be great if everyone did some research and took part and had a say and made the "right" decision but not everyone is going to. And you have no real grounds to say they should or that they should vote a certain way. Its a democracy, they can vote whatever way they want, for whatever reasons they want or not even vote at all.

You are completely correct. I know that no matter what we are voting on there are people who vote for voting's sake and some vote pro and anti-government because of where their loyalties lie. It just really bothers me that something so important to the future of our Country is being treated with such a bad attitude by 2/3 of the population eligible to vote.

WIZE

adocholiday wrote: »

You are completely correct. I know that no matter what we are voting on there are people who vote for voting's sake and some vote pro and anti-government because of where their loyalties lie. It just really bothers me that something so important to the future of our Country is being treated with such a bad attitude by 2/3 of the population eligible to vote.

what's the voting figure at this time

Coillte_Bhoy

Technocentral wrote: »

I'll explain again, thought it was clear

In that poll of how they said they will vote:

39% yes + 30% no = 69%. 22% were undecided if 10 or 11% of them voted that should be 79/80% turnout not the really low turnout predicted, thats all.

Thats assuming that everyone polled will vote which clearly was never going to be the case

adocholiday

WIZE wrote: »

what's the voting figure at this time

Can't find an exact figure at the minute but Dublin North Central was highest about an hour ago at 33%

On politics.ie a few of the posters are saying that presiding officers have noticed a marked increase in voters since around 6pm so hopefully the working people of the country are coming out before 10

WIZE

I think its in peoples heads if we vote yes were fooked and if we vote no were fooked so why vote

Technocentral

WIZE wrote: »

I think its in peoples heads if we vote yes were fooked and if we vote no were fooked so why vote

Not an easy choice but personally in my head it was:

Possible harsh outcome for the foreseeable future (Yes vote)
Possible disastrous outcome for the foreseeable future (No vote)

So logically I had to vote yes.

ParkRunner

There's a voting card for me at home but I've emigrated, I'm sure there are tens of thousands more like me who will be sent ballot papers but can't vote and which will affect turnout. The result will be interesting

Technocentral

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Thats assuming that everyone polled will vote which clearly was never going to be the case

We have to base discussing the low turnout on something surely and previous Irish Times/MRBI polls have been fairly accurate, it still doesn't explain a possible 80% voting with the current 40% prediction.

Ronin247

I know a few people who said they will not vote because there is so much conflicting advice(bullsh*t) from the yes and no camps that they were confused. I think the old Northern Ireland quote should apply...

Anyone who isnt confused by this treaty doesn't really understand it.

Amtmann

I voted in rural south Tipperary a few minutes ago. Three other people were there. The four of us voted YES.

Sierra Oscar

Parts of Limerick have passed the 50% mark now. I still reckon it will be around 45 - 50% nationally but it could struggle at that.

osheen

Predalien wrote: »

I genuinely could not decide how to vote, so didn't.

But thats just laziness . you want to protest go spoil your ballot.
GO NOW polling is open till 10

Ozymandius2011

Sierra Oscar do you mean Limerick County or Limerick City?

WIZE

Technocentral wrote: »

Not an easy choice but personally in my head it was:

Possible harsh outcome for the foreseeable future (Yes vote)
Possible disastrous outcome for the foreseeable future (No vote)

So logically I had to vote yes.

it will be disastrous both ways

even if the treaty passes Ireland won't meet its targets and the EU will tell us to cut spending or raise taxes.

You can guess our governments option

I voted no . I would rather we sorted this mess out ourselves

if we don't have the money to borrow we won't be adding to the bottomless hole