Will one bed apartments (Dublin) ever rise again?

kdowling

I have a one bed apartment in Dublin city centre (not a great area) that is now valued at €100,000 (would probably go for less) brought for €280,000.
Do you think even if house prices rise in the future that the value of a one bed apartment will ever rise higher than this?
should i just cut my losses and sell now? (thats if anyone wopuld buy it!!)

edellc

cut your losses why anyone would ever pay 280k for a one bed is just beyond me, they where never worth it in the first place and will never be worth it in the future.

People got too greedy and tried to keep up with the Jones's and you seemingly where one of them and now you are set for huge losses, suck it up, learn a lesson and move on

Mickey Dazzler

edellc wrote: »

cut your losses why anyone would ever pay 280k for a one bed is just beyond me, they where never worth it in the first place and will never be worth it in the future.

People got too greedy and tried to keep up with the Jones's and you seemingly where one of them and now you are set for huge losses, suck it up, learn a lesson and move on

This jot helpful at all. Just because you were too much of a peasant to buy then does not mean you have a right to smugly rub peoples noses now.

robjones1981

I cant see them ever reaching the prices they did in the past - but thats just my opinion and I'm no expert or the like

There is a demand for one bed apartments, and there always will be in dublin and other cities, but perhaps somewhat less than it was when people were buying them to get a "foot on the ladder", feeling that in a few years they could sell it on without difficulty and trade up

I know of two separate people on the hunt for a one bed in Dublin at the moment and have yet to find what they want - one of them has been looking for 7 months, the other 3 months

kdowling

edellc wrote: »

cut your losses why anyone would ever pay 280k for a one bed is just beyond me, they where never worth it in the first place and will never be worth it in the future.

People got too greedy and tried to keep up with the Jones's and you seemingly where one of them and now you are set for huge losses, suck it up, learn a lesson and move on

really? jeez i've never heard that point made before.

The crash happened 5 years ago buddy, that point has been made a few times already and here was you thinking you were being insightful!!

Supercell

kdowling wrote: »

I have a one bed apartment in Dublin city centre (not a great area) that is now valued at €100,000 (would probably go for less) brought for €280,000.
Do you think even if house prices rise in the future that the value of a one bed apartment will ever rise higher than this?
should i just cut my losses and sell now? (thats if anyone wopuld buy it!!)

I cant see any price raises in the future unless we have a no vote on May 31st

The Irish sheeples will vote yes and you can continue to pay German banker debt for the forseeable.
Prices are going Japanese here.
its a great time to buy though IMHO - easy to upgrade in a few years as prices will be stagnant at best for many many years to come.

Vote Yes to stagnant prices and happy bankers!!

kdowling

robjones1981 wrote: »

I cant see them ever reaching the prices they did in the past - but thats just my opinion and I'm no expert or the like

I realise that they will never go anywhere near the prices they did in the past even if thing really pick up.
My question is will they ever even increase slightly from current values and I'm thinking probably not.

Caseywhale

Investors are very interested in 1 bed apartments.
There are > 10% yield to be had in dublin on 1 bed apartments even now.. Which is fantastic, even for boom times.
in fact they are even better for yields than any other type of property on the market now.

Calculate the yield an investor would get on your apartment. if its above 6% you should keep it. what you would be doing if you sold it now would be to lock in a loss of 180k. what possible advantage is that to you. you would still owe 180k and probalby at a higher int rate than you are paying now.

stevedublin

Caseywhale wrote: »

Investors are very interested in 1 bed apartments.
There are > 10% yield to be had in dublin on 1 bed apartments even now.. Which is fantastic, even for boom times.
in fact they are even better for yields than any other type of property on the market now.

Calculate the yield an investor would get on your apartment. if its above 6% you should keep it. what you would be doing if you sold it now would be to lock in a loss of 180k. what possible advantage is that to you. you would still owe 180k and probalby at a higher int rate than you are paying now.

Do you calculate the yield from gross rent intake or after tax and expenses?

engineermike

Hi,
I think it goes with out saying they will rise at some point, market demand and when lending returns - will begin to increase in value. In some areas in Dublin prices have begun to slowly rise - demand is up since Easter all around the Dublin belt.
The rental yield is the right way to go in my mind tho, because the price of 280 K is not going to be seen again - those prices were unsustainable.
mike f

StillWaters

edellc wrote: »

cut your losses why anyone would ever pay 280k for a one bed is just beyond me, they where never worth it in the first place and will never be worth it in the future.

People got too greedy and tried to keep up with the Jones's and you seemingly where one of them and now you are set for huge losses, suck it up, learn a lesson and move on

Just mean and nasty.

To OP, of course prices will rise in the future. But IMO, yours will probably be one of the last to rise. Only those who have to sell are selling now. Are you still living there, and it still meeting your needs? If so. Sit tight, enjoy your home.

edellc

If my points have been made before they why ask the bloody question, its obvious even at the time when the apartment was priced at 280k that it was way over priced any idiot should have know that then, but a fool and their money is easily parted

Mickey Dazzler & kdowling no need to be bitchy

Obviously prices will rise again but never to 280k for a one bed apt :rolleyes: when it will happen well people have short memories so give it 5 years and this recession will be long forgotten and people will be panicking again about getting on the property ladder but hopefully they wont be as idiotic as the fools who bought a one bed apt for 280k 5 years ago

Oh an Kdowling if your going to ask remedial questions then be prepared for people to state the obvious

BostonB

But he'd be paying the interest on 200k not 300k. How likely is it to rent in a "not great" area. How well has it rented thus far?

If there isn't a question of struggling to meet to the mortgage, then as the others say the rental yield should be your guide.

bbam

kdowling wrote: »

I have a one bed apartment in Dublin city centre (not a great area) that is now valued at €100,000 (would probably go for less) brought for €280,000.
Do you think even if house prices rise in the future that the value of a one bed apartment will ever rise higher than this?
should i just cut my losses and sell now? (thats if anyone wopuld buy it!!)

I doubt there will be any meaningful rise in these properties in the foreseeable future. And if your looking to get a house then the house your looking at will rise faster than your apartment so waiting for the rise will not help you much.

If your looking to offload it so you can do something different with your life then I'd advise To just dump it for whatever you can get. Life's too short to be waiting for the market to pick up, it could take ten years.

Best of luck.
Shame on those labelling OP as being greedy for buying their properties, the majority of the country including the government thought it was the thing to do.

edellc

bbam wrote: »

Shame on those labelling OP as being greedy for buying their properties, the majority of the country including the government thought it was the thing to do.

lol and that is we are in the sh*t we are in, a country of sheep and not one individual

their was plenty of us saying what a ridicules situation it was both at the time and now but the nobody wanted to listen they where too busy spending money they didnt have and its only now people are taking their heads out of the sand and realising what idiots they where and saying how it is only right that mortage debt gets forgiven...yes lets forgive you for being a idiot :rolleyes:

i have no sympathy for any of you

hohojojo

property price will eventually rise again not at the same speed this time round but if you go by the past, money always devalues and as such the level of dept you carry will become less as you will start earning more but everything else will start costing more it would have happened 5 years ago if the cash had not been allowed to happen but as soon as we joined the euro there was always going to be countries that would prefer for the cost of living to stay even and the same with no levels of growth

so i suppose if the euro fell apart and each went back to their own currency you may have a cheaper morgage in the long run but as long as we are in the euro we'll have countries like germany controlling how europe is ran things in ireland are going to get a lot worse before they get better .

BostonB

Is there issue of how to maintain the loan?

kdowling

BostonB wrote: »

Is there issue of how to maintain the loan?

no, i can pay the mortgage easily, just not sure whether there is any point waiting for 1-bed apartments to rise, worried they could fall even futher.

i suppose i don't have much more to lose at this stage.
How much more under 100,000 can it fall?
Will probably stay stagnant for a while and v small chance it may increase slightly

lima

edellc wrote: »

lol and that is we are in the sh*t we are in, a country of sheep and not one individual

their was plenty of us saying what a ridicules situation it was both at the time and now but the nobody wanted to listen they where too busy spending money they didnt have and its only now people are taking their heads out of the sand and realising what idiots they where and saying how it is only right that mortage debt gets forgiven...yes lets forgive you for being a idiot :rolleyes:

i have no sympathy for any of you

Yes I agree, people who bought little 1br apartments in Dublin (a glum rainy city full of Heroin addicts) for e280k were deluded by greed. It was obvious to some that this was a ridiculous price to be buying property for, and people have a right to say 'I told you so'. Luckily I was abroad for most of the tiger bubble so I had perspective and could see that no matter how much people thought they were uber-sophisticated european urbanite investment experts, Dublin was still Dublin, a small little capital on the peripherary of the EU, and that a small 1br was in no way worth e280k.

Oh, and I live in the city centre now and from the state of it I would not buy a 1br for more than 100k right now. Funnily enough though rents for a 1br are booming (900-1100 pcm) so just keep it and rent it out!

BostonB

If it were me I think I'd sell it and buy something in a better area, that would return more in the long run.

P. Breathnach

Like most people here, I cannot foretell the future. But I have a theory, and I'll share it with you.

1. There is an oversupply of apartments in Dublin, particularly one- or two-bedroom apartments.
2. Build quality varies, with many apartment blocks being of poor standard.
3. Forgive the horrible phrasing: the middle-class appeal of many developments is low, and the middle classes are prepared to pay more than those on lower incomes.
4. In some developments, there are many vacant units, or owners in financial difficulties; this means that the management company is struggling, or will be in the short to medium term, and maintenance standards will fall.

My guess: the market will become more heterogeneous, meaning that a question as general as that posed by OP will be unanswerable. The answer will depend on the particulars.

kdowling

lima wrote: »

Yes I agree, people who bought little 1br apartments in Dublin (a glum rainy city full of Heroin addicts) for e280k were deluded by greed.

Thanks for that genius, but thats not what we are discussing!

Victor

edellc wrote: »

If my points have been made before they why ask the bloody question, its obvious even at the time when the apartment was priced at 280k that it was way over priced any idiot should have know that then, but a fool and their money is easily parted

Mickey Dazzler & kdowling no need to be bitchy

Obviously prices will rise again but never to 280k for a one bed apt :rolleyes: when it will happen well people have short memories so give it 5 years and this recession will be long forgotten and people will be panicking again about getting on the property ladder but hopefully they wont be as idiotic as the fools who bought a one bed apt for 280k 5 years ago

Oh an Kdowling if your going to ask remedial questions then be prepared for people to state the obvious

No need for comments like this.

stevedublin

Property, like a lot of things, go up and down in cycles. Imho property prices are nearer the bottom of the cycle than the top.
Also, it is likely that there will be strong inflation in Ireland (and worldwide) over the coming years due to "current affairs".
1-bed apartments in central locations are very much favoured by investors (the very buyers who are first to leave the market in bad times) due to the ease of finding tenants for them. Hence they tend to have the wildest price swings.
If the OP can afford to keep paying the mortgage over the next few years it is very likely that the price would rise to the original price (over time) and I would seriously question the financial sanity of anyone selling such properties now (or the next 2 years) unless they absolutely had to.

CrazySka

edellc, the OP's question wasnt "was I stupid to buy this apartment?" Im sure he feels bad enough when he looks at the negative equity he will be paying for a very long time without people like you rubbing his nose in it with the same tired old point, I didnt buy either but accept it or not there was a wave of influence towards buying property from financial organisations and the government that was easy to get caught up in so a certain level of sympathy is reasonable imo.

OP, the question is what are your plans? are you going to stay in the country and if so is your mortgage much more than rent would be? If you are going to go abroad would the rent you would get for it cover the mortgage?
If the mortgage is more than rent would be then would rent for another place plus servicing a €180k debt be more or less than the mortgage?
Cant see the apartment ever being worth what it was but I would be asking whether it will cost more to keep it or get rid of it, at the end of the day you have to live somewhere after all.
Hope it works out for you man, nasty situation to be in.

Rory1

OP - the short answer is probably no.

Edellc - your comments are unhelpful. I'm sure OP is only too well aware of mistake.

StillWaters

edellc wrote: »

lol and that is we are in the sh*t we are in, a country of sheep and not one individual

their was plenty of us saying what a ridicules situation it was both at the time and now but the nobody wanted to listen they where too busy spending money they didnt have and its only now people are taking their heads out of the sand and realising what idiots they where and saying how it is only right that mortage debt gets forgiven...yes lets forgive you for being a idiot :rolleyes:

i have no sympathy for any of you

Why don't you take your insightful analysis over to the Irish economy forum?

The_Conductor

Ok guys- rule 101- be civil towards one another- and if you disagree with what someone else posts- refute it without attacking them.

Snide leering comments are not helpful towards anyone- we all make mistakes in life- its how we overcome obstacles that defines us, not that we encountered the obstacles in the first instance.

To the OP- your question- will one bed apartments in Dublin ever rise again?
In my opinion- as a rule of thumb- they probably have a significant amount left to fall- they have by no means bottomed out, and with the exception of some highly desirable areas, are unlikely to ever increase to levels other than possibly keeping track with inflation once they bottom out- providing the manner in which the government implement property tax (and sundry costs of ownership) doesn't make them totally unsaleable.

There are very few people out there who have any particular interest in buying apartments- and of those who are- very few would be interested in 1 beds, other than as short term accommodation.

Us Irish do not have a happy history of apartment/high rise living- and indeed have an appalling residential planning history (to the extent that the European Commission sponsor local authorities in Poland and elsewhere to come here and see the mess that uncontrolled planning can cause).

So- will one bed apartments ever rise again- probably not.........

riclad

Property tends to rise,fall in long cycles ,7,ten years .With inflation , in ten years it might be worth 130k if inflation rises,value of money decreases, wages increase.price of goods go up.
ITS impossible to predict long term economic situation in ten years,
but i think the celtic tiger boom was out of control.
I dont think it,ll ever be again be worth 200k plus .
I see some apartments 1bed very small in working class areas, that have lost 60 per cent off the original price.
You could just rent it out ,if its not convenient to live in that area.
They are more likely to rise on the south side,or certain desireable areas ,near to luas .