German newspaper: renegotiation still on table

Ozymandius2011

This morning the Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore have claimed "categorically" that there will be no renegotiation of the Fiscal Compact.

However, the Summit Conclusions make no mention of this. Furthermore, the German newspaper Suedeutsche Zeitung is claiming Hollande is keeping renegotiation on the table as a bargaining chip.

Do you believe the government's claims this morning on EU leaders 'agreeing' that the Treaty will not be renegotiated? Based on the German report and reports on Twitter that Hollande is saying the Treaty wasn't even discussed, I do not.

crusher000

All treaties are open for negotiations. How did we have Lisbon II if not ? Some analysts are saying by the time Ireland goes to the polls to vote on this treaty it could be null and void. This Treaty will be passed whether or not the Irish people vote for it . If enough European members support it, it is going to be passed.

meglome

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

This morning the Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore have claimed "categorically" that there will be no renegotiation of the Fiscal Compact.

However, the Summit Conclusions make no mention of this. Furthermore, the German newspaper Suedeutsche Zeitung is claiming Hollande is keeping renegotiation on the table as a bargaining chip.

Do you believe the government's claims this morning on EU leaders 'agreeing' that the Treaty will not be renegotiated? Based on the German report and reports on Twitter that Hollande is saying the Treaty wasn't even discussed, I do not.

So you'll believe a German newspaper talking about a French politician who wants to look like he's doing what he promised to get elected.

Ozymandius2011

meglome wrote: »

So you'll believe a German newspaper talking about a French politician who wants to look like he's doing what he promised to get elected.

The media are an important check on politicians so I trust them more, though not so much the Irish media which are too consensus-driven.

meglome

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

The media are an important check on politicians so I trust them more, though not so much the Irish media which are too consensus-driven.

And yet I seem to recall media stories that you didn't believe as they didn't support your views. Just sayin'.

later12

Based on the various Government TDs clamouring for air time over the past 18 hours, it seems they are pretty well briefed that there is to be no change to the wording of the Treaty.

The reason some doubt could have existed at all arose out of the fact that the French and German leaders did not have their traditional pre-summit meeting. However, from what the Irish TDs have been saying it appears that alterations to the body of the Treaty are now unlikely.

This has been described in Ireland as 'playing straight into the [Irish] Government's hands'. I think that's an incredibly parochial and naive position to adapt. Whatever the constitutional questions that might have arisen, I think most independent commentators would agree that a specific and coherent growth plan attached to the Treaty could have saved the Treaty from doing serious damage to the European economy in 2012 and 2013, if observed. And that would have made any constitutional clumsiness in Ireland pretty small fish, to be honest; hardly something the world is holding its breath over.

ixtlan

In this case, there is so much political effort on Germany's part behind the treaty that they surely could not agree to any change. However, I still expect there will be something called "a growth pact", so that Hollande can say he has achieved his goals... and Merkel can say she has achieved hers. Such a growth plan would of course help the referendum campaign on the yes side, but clearly that's going to be a painful compromise for everyone, and they are not going to rush to get it agreed just for an Irish vote.

I'm open to correction on this, but I believe it's the case that a state in a programme is not bound by the treaty rules, therefore whether the program might be changed is a separate issue to the treaty. I mention this in the context of possible re-negotiations with Greece, in the sense that that could happen and yet the treaty would still be required for all. Even there though, the signs are not good.

Ix

Ozymandius2011

Newstalk are discussing this shortly. Joe Higgins says comments by EU leaders don't back up what the govt is saying on renegotiation.

Sand

meglome wrote: »

So you'll believe a German newspaper talking about a French politician who wants to look like he's doing what he promised to get elected.

Gilmore has been caught out lying already in the Wiki leaks releases, specifically about the fallout of the Lisbon Treaty rejection so I dont credit anything he says. Labours way or Frankfurts way, remember?

Kenny tells his audience whatever he thinks they want to hear. I give him slightly more credit than Gilmore as it can only be demonstrated that hes confused, uninformed and out of the loop.

Id believe a German newspaper far more than Id believe the nonsense either Kenny or Gilmore come out with.

meglome

Sand wrote: »

Gilmore has been caught out lying already in the Wiki leaks releases, specifically about the fallout of the Lisbon Treaty rejection so I dont credit anything he says. Labours way or Frankfurts way, remember?

Kenny tells his audience whatever he thinks they want to hear. I give him slightly more credit than Gilmore as it can only be demonstrated that hes confused, uninformed and out of the loop.

Id believe a German newspaper far more than Id believe the nonsense either Kenny or Gilmore come out with.

Don't get me wrong I wasn't ruling out that Kenny and Gilmore were spinning this. Just that some people are willing to believe what a French politician said to get elected but at the same time refusing to believe anything our own say. The only difference appears to be one is saying what they want to hear.

Sand

The problem is the French have been saying it *after* they got elected too, when if they were being truly cynical on this point they should have been taming expectations.

As for our own politicians - we know that they are liars and that they really are out of the loop. We cant make that assumption for the French.

Ozymandius2011

The Irish Times are reporting that the SPD is still blocking ratification in the German Parliament.

Merkel fails to get support from SPD or Greens - The Irish Times - Fri, May 25, 2012

"GERMANY’S FISCAL treaty ratification remained in limbo yesterday after Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to win over the necessary opposition party support.

The Social Democrats (SPD) and Green Party said yesterday they would withhold their backing for the treaty until the German leader agreed to euro zone growth measures – financed by a tax on financial transactions."

femur61

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

This morning the Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore have claimed "categorically" that there will be no renegotiation of the Fiscal Compact.

However, the Summit Conclusions make no mention of this. Furthermore, the German newspaper Suedeutsche Zeitung is claiming Hollande is keeping renegotiation on the table as a bargaining chip.

Do you believe the government's claims this morning on EU leaders 'agreeing' that the Treaty will not be renegotiated? Based on the German report and reports on Twitter that Hollande is saying the Treaty wasn't even discussed, I do not.

"We are well funded until next year"

"We won't need a second bailout"

"Its Frankfurts way or labours way"

I can't remember how many jobs they said they would create when they raided my pension.

Now who do I believe

Scofflaw

CHANCELLOR ANGELA Merkel has said Germany will not allow any changes to the fiscal treaty, before or after the Irish referendum.

“Four countries have already ratified, so no change will happen,” said the chancellor’s spokesman, Steffen Seibert.

Yesterday Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore insisted there will be no changes to the fiscal treaty text on which the electorate will vote next Thursday.

“One of the issues that is very much out of the way is that somehow this treaty is going to be reopened or changed. The summit meeting made that very clear. The text of the treaty is what people are voting on and that is not going to change,” Mr Gilmore said in Belfast yesterday evening.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0525/1224316665459.html

cordially,
Scofflaw