Wednesday 23rd May

rossom

5.30 Lingfield

Perfect Mission 15/2

I fancy Perfect Mission quite a bit and think he will take a lot of beating for the bang in form Andrew Balding stable. With only 11 starts to date in his career, I think this 4 year old is still an improving animal and his 4 month break should have freshened him up nicely and hopefully he's tuned up and ready to strike. In his 2 year old career, Perfect Mission put up a couple of decent efforts in maidens with his best effort coming at Warick on soft ground over 7f when he finished 5L behind Labarinto, who is now a 97 rated animal. Perfect Mission took an 8 month break before making his handicap and 3 year old debut off a mark of an effective mark of 75 (out of handicap 2lb) where he finished an excellent 1L beaten 2nd at Salisbury on firm ground. The form of that race is very strong with the winner Chilworth Lad, who won off 94 that day, now a 112 rated animal who rounded off the campaign by landing two Listed events.

It is a bit surprising that Perfect Mission didn't really kick on from there. His next 3 starts came on turf and he was pretty disappointing with the last of these efforts coming in July. He made his AW debut at Kempton after a 4 month break where he finished 2nd in a maiden. The winner that day was a 95 rated horse who had been beaten only 3L in a Group 2 in his 2 year old campaign and he easily beat Perfect Mission but it was still a step back in the right direction. 3 starts ago Perfect Mission shed his maiden tag at the 9th time of asking when landing a 6 runner maiden as an odds on shot and although he achieved very little that day it finally got him off the mark. Perfect Mission's last two starts have both been excellent efforts in handicap company and I think he is now back on the right track. His 2nd last start came over C+D in a Class 5 event off a mark of 70 where he was only nabbed close home as he finished a 0.19L beaten 3rd. Making all that day, he battled gamely until the line and he was just swamped in the final stages. The winner and 4th won on their next starts so the form of that race is reading well enough.

His final start came 6 days later in January of this year where he was a 0.75L beaten 3rd off an effective mark of 71 as he was once again run out of it in the final stages. After taking a keen hold early on, Perfect Mission sat just behind the leaders before he hit the front with 2f to go and he was still in front until inside the final furlong. The Class 4 event has pretty strong form with the 2nd Shifting Star winning off a 1lb higher mark. Although the winner Sunset Kitty hasn't done much since, I'm convinced she is better than her subsequent efforts which only solidifies my confidence in Perfect Mission. Perfect Mission clearly goes well fresh as demonstrated by his excellent 2nd at Salisbury and I think the 4 month break should rejuvenate him. He's dropped in grade from his last race back to a Class 5 and is again off a mark of 71 which should in my opinion put him bang there at the finish. He clearly goes well at the track and Jimmy Fortune takes the ride and he was on board for Perfect Mission's sole victory to date and he has a 25% strike rate with 4YO+ on the AW for the trainer. This represents Balding's only runner at the track tomorrow and he generally does well here and boasts a 17% strike rate. Although the draw in stall 10 is a bit of a concern for a horse who likes to sit fairly close to the pace, he normally breaks quickly so its not a grave concern. If maintaining what I would consider to be an upward trend, I think Perfect Mission has a very good chance tomorrow and I'm confident he can go close to winning this at what represents a very fair price in my opinion.

MyStubbleItches

Damn you, damn you to hell! I'd like you a lot more if you'd stop opposing my picks so often. Now I have to back two horses in one race. :D

rossom

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

Damn you, damn you to hell! I'd like you a lot more if you'd stop opposing my picks so often. Now I have to back two horses in one race. :D

Haha sorry. What's your fancy for the race?

rossom

4.50 Southwell

Eastern Hills 14/1

If discounting his last run on heavy ground at Newcastle that may not have suited, I think Eastern Hill has a good chance to bounce back to form at a track where he gets on really well. This 7 year old was very progressive last year at Southwell, winning 4 times between 5f and 1m and I think the return to the fibresand surface should definitely suit him. His last win at the track came over 7f back in November as he won by a head off a mark of 74. He hit the front a couple of furlongs out and gamely fought out a finish to hold on from Powerful Pierre. The form of that race is strong with the 2nd winning off a 4lb higher mark subsequently on the AW and a 6lb higher mark on turf. After this, Eastern Hills was a bit disappointing as he could only finish 6th again at Southwell when upped to a mark of 80 but that was only 6 days after his success and the race may have come too soon for him. His final start of last year something went wrong with him as he was quickly dismounted with 2f left but thankfully he was ok.

4 months after this, Eastern Hills made his reappearance at the track but he definitely looked in need of the run. 2 starts back he reverted back to the turf and he was a massive eye catcher. Off a mark of 79, which he races off today, it didn't seem that his jockey Miss D Lenge had quite come to grips with riding yet as she was basically sitting motionless the whole journey, administering the odd slap of the whip. To my eyes, she had a lot of horse left under her and she was only beaten by 2.5L in the end. The form of that race is strong with the winner No Poppy scoring on her next start off a 5lb higher mark and the 2nd Levitate was only beaten by 0.5L off a 4lb higher mark on his only next start. LTO he was very poor at Newcastle but the ground was bottomless and I'm overlooking that effort. Eastern Hills has won twice over todays C+D in his career and I don't think he's reached the peak of his performance yet, judged on both his progressive season last year and his recent 3rd at Doncaster. The excellent Sean Levey takes the ride tomorrow and he takes off a very handy 3lb meaning Eastern Hills is now only effectively 2lb above his last win at the track. He has a plum draw in stall 1 considering he likes to race close to the pace and its a big advantage in my eyes. If bouncing back from his last effort, I think he has a very good chance of going close and the 14/1 on offer looks pretty big. I'm slightly concerned that Alan McCabe is a bit out of form at the moment with only 1 win from 25 runners this month but hopefully that will change with Eastern Hills.

MyStubbleItches

rossom wrote: »

Haha sorry. What's your fancy for the race?

I'm keeping a log of Jim Crowley's mounts so Scottish Glen for me. Market gives us a fairly even chance at least.

rossom

Eastern Hills was atrocious.

rossom

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

I'm keeping a log of Jim Crowley's mounts so Scottish Glen for me. Market gives us a fairly even chance at least.

Well done mate. I liked his profile but thought he may just need the run. Perfect Mission was a bit disappointing

MyStubbleItches

Cheers Rossom but I can't take any credit, I just back Crowley blind.

You have a far better grasp of the game than I do and you'll win again no doubt.

rossom

He's in good form at the moment. I may be putting up a Crowley runner for tomorrow at a big price later on

rossom

8.50 Worcester

Timmies Gone 40/1

Only a small bet for me but I think Keiran Burke's 7 year old is a very interesting horse. With a career in P2P comprising of 8 races in that sphere culminating in 2010, Timmies Gone joined his current yard and has had 6 races under rules to date. For Burke, he has competed in 4 Chase events between a distance of 2m6f and 3m2f to pretty much no success. He has had two starts in hurdles since, an encouraging debut in sellers hurdle followed by his handicap debut off a mark of 92 on GS ground at Fontwell last month. He travelled well out in front before weakening badly at 3 out and it wasn't the best effort but I'm willing to give him another chance at the price as I think he does have at least a modicum of talent. Keiran Burke's form is a bit of a worry as he is winnerless in the last couple of months but 40/1 is just too tempting a price to turn down.