Friday 19th May

rossom

2.30 Newbury

Lutine Bell 20/1

Will do write up later but price may shorten.

UrbanSea

One I think is a big price tomorrow is Dark Castle 2.45 Newmarket 16/1. Been following him since I backed him when he won his maiden first start out as a 3 year old, he was backed off the boards all day and did it well. The second came out and won three times and was second 3 times since and was beaten only a neck in a decent handicap at Chester last week. He disappointed next time out in his handicap debut off a mark of 74, though that looks good now, given he was beaten 2 and a quarter lengts by a horse who was rated 72 and has since ran well in a few listed races and is rated 91 and won a handicap off 84. Dark Castle went on to comfortably win next time out by two lengths off a mark of 77 last month (form isn't strong), though he races off 84 tomorrow and strikes me as being really progressive as a 3 year old and carries just 8-7 and the yard is in good form. Think it's a good each way shout

UrbanSea

I fancy so many tomorrow it's unreal.

Viola D'amour 5.20 Newbury 16/1 is another I think is really big. Don't think this race has much strength in depth. She's a filly by Teofilo and won on her debut last year over 6 furlongs and was thought good enough to face the colts in a Listed race on her return this year over a mile. Never really landed a blow and I don't think she stayed the mile, but she was only beaten ten lengths and more can be expected back in trip, her handicap mark is only 78 and she should have some improvement in her

rossom

rossom wrote: »

2.30 Newbury

Lutine Bell 20/1

This horse really really deserves to win a race this year, and a big one at that. Ultra consistent the majority of the time, Mike Muphy's 5 year old is winless since November 2010 and he really has a hard time winning! However, I really think and hope that today is the day he breaks that duck. His handicap mark has ranged from 91 to 94 since December 2010 which really emphasises he rarely runs a bad race, and he has some extremely strong form in his book. Previously with Sir Mark Prescott, Lutine Bell marked his debut for current connections with an authoritative win at Wolves over 7f by 6L, which was in fact his latest success. After a 4 month break, on his 3rd start for the yard off a mark of 92 he ran out an excellent 1.56L 4th over 6f behind the excellent Horseradish, who subsequently ran a very credibly 1L behind Hoof It off a 4lb mark before being sold to Hong Kong. Furthermore Waffle, who finished only 0.75L ahead of tomorrows selection,subsequently ran an excellent 2nd to Deacon Blues at Royal Ascot, only narrowly failing by a neck as the line came too soon. This was at the time where Waffle was in his peak last year. Moreover, Our Jonathan finished in 3rd off a mark of 93 and he is now rated 114.

On 21 May last year, after a disappointing run at Ascot, Lutine Bell ran a good race to finish 1L 4th behind Crown Choice. This was another good run, emphasising the normally excellent standard that Lutine Bell runs to. After this, Lutine Bell was quite luckless from start to finish when finishing 3.31L behind the progressive Dungannon, a horse he finished 0.75L in front of on May 21 with only a 1lb swing in the weights. According to the trainer, “the starter hesitated for a split second before opening the stalls which resulted in Martyn taking the hood off the horse a fraction early. The horse hit the gate and bounced back onto his hocks just as the gate opened” and after meeting traffic, he could not get into contention. Murphy futher cited “We were both thrilled with his run but disappointed as with a clear run he would have won.”

In July, off a mark of 91 Lutine Bell ran an excellent race to finish 0.75L 2nd to Piazzo San Pietro. Lutine Bell missed the kick a bit that day and still did a very good job to finish 2nd. The form of that race is once again rock solid with numerous winners in behind off higher marks. On his next start Lutine Bell again found one too good. After travelled ominously well throughout and for the most part he cut his way through the field from deep off a mark of 92. However, he met a small bit of traffic along the way and had to be switched. He finished an excellent 0.75L behind Noble Citizen, who has subsequently run a great race to finish 0.75L 3rd behind Bronze Prince in a big race at Ascot off a 3lb higher mark. Moreover, and very relevant to todays contest, he finished 1L in front of current favourite Macs Power and that rival only has a 1lb swing at the weights.

After a slight disappointment at Goodwood, Lutine Bell probably the best race in his career to date. With Richard Hughes booked for the first time, he ran an excellent 2nd off a mark of 94 when finishing 1.75L beaten by Sirius Prospect, who was rated 88 that day. After travelling ominously once again, he scythed through the field with consummate ease with the winner probably just getting first run on him. He was unlucky to run into such a progressive and well handicapped 3 year old, as Sirius Prospect quickly rattled off a further 3 victories in succession culminating with a success in a Listed contest. His final 3 starts were a bit disappointing but he had 8 starts in the space of 4 months prior to that so I'm willing to forgive him those efforts.

Lutine Bell arrives here on the back of a 7 month break and I really think this will have freshened him up very well and revitalised him. He hasn't had many breaks in his career, but when with Sir Mark Prescott he ran an excellent 3L 3rd on the back of a 10 month break where he missed the break and finished better than anything. For current connections his run behind Horseradish was after 4 months so its clear to me he goes well fresh. Richard Hughes is again booked for todays race and its clear to me that connections mean business. He has a tendency to miss the break most starts but it isn't a huge concern considering he likes to sit at the back of the field. He's equally adept over 6f/7f with probably a slight preference for the latter, but todays 6f trip should be absolutely fine. Mike Murphy has his small string in absolutely fantastic order at the minute which is good news for Lutine Bells chances. Off a mark of 92, his form shows that he's more than capable of winning off this mark and if replicating most of his efforts he should prove too good. If discounting his last 3 runs, Lutine Bell finished 1.75L or less in 5 of his first 8 runs finishing 2nd no less than 3 times. This horse deserves a win so much and I don't even care about winning money off him today I just want to see him win so badly. I really hope today is his day and it signifies the start of what will be an excellent season.

MoscowFlyer

Really confident about Thought Worthy beating Noble Mission today at 2.15 Newmarket, listening to John Gosden during the week talking about the animal sealed it for me. I think he really really likes this horse. While Noble Mission is a good horse I do think he is slightly overrated because of his connections with the great Frankel. Anyway, it should be an interesting race.

Only around 9/4

UrbanSea

Ended up backing Dark Castle and Galleon in the first at Newbury. If I get something back off them I might do one or two more.


If not I'll cry and stay in tonight

rossom

2.20 Thirsk

Captain Cardington 16/1

Although he's not one to invest a huge amount of faith in, I believe Mick Channon's 3 year old is definitely worth a wager. He was last seen at Goodwood over 10f on soft ground earlier this month and it was a poor effort at Goodwood. Very early on he seemed to be struggling and looked to be lugging in the ground and although he finished 2nd at heavy ground at Ffos Las he struggled early on that day too and I'm not sure how well he acts in the ground. 2 starts back off a mark of 66 at Nottingham he ran a decent race before folding in the latter stages to finish about a 5L beaten 5th. He ran in his typical fashion of getting bumped from a fair way out and with about 1f left he looked a real player before finishers swamped right past him. It was on ok effort but it wasn't fantastic and as he his dropped back to a mile today from 10f it may suit.

He races today off a mark of 63 and he is actually 1lb below his last winning mark which was 4 starts ago at Lingfield over 10f in February. The form of that looks strong with the 2nd winning by 4L on his next start so there is a lot to like about that effort. In relation to his turf form, I think he has shown some good efforts which make him look pretty well handicapped. On his 2nd career start back in June of last year, Captain Cardington ran out an impressive winner of a maiden at Epsom. The form of that race looks strong , with the 2nd performing admirably off a mark of 70 subsequently and the 3rd winning twice in the interim period, including off a mark of 78.

Going back to his 2YO days Captain Cardington was stepped into Class 2 company for his handicap debut off a mark of 75 at Goodwood where he ran a very credible 3.25L beaten 7th in a race with very strong form. After being readily outpaced, he met a lot of traffic in running before staying on over the 7f trip and if reproducing that effort today he should take all the beating.This run at Goodwood, coupled with his maiden success at Epsom, show me on his day he is a decent animal. I find it very interesting that he is dropped into a Class 6 event for the fist time on turf and now being 12lb lower than his good handicap debut and 1lb lower than his AW victory he appears very well handicapped. The only other time he has contested a Class 6 race was his success at Lingfield this year and he really should be up to winning this. I think the return to a sounder surface should definitely suit today and trainer Mick Channon has seems to have gotten his horses in top form with 2 winners and 3 horses finishing beaten by half a length. This looks a very winnable race and although he needs to re-find his form he is certainly a price worth risking to do it.

MoscowFlyer

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Really confident about Thought Worthy beating Noble Mission today at 2.15 Newmarket, listening to John Gosden during the week talking about the animal sealed it for me. I think he really really likes this horse. While Noble Mission is a good horse I do think he is slightly overrated because of his connections with the great Frankel. Anyway, it should be an interesting race.

Only around 9/4

A win is a win

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Rossom,

Lutine Bell is now 11/1! Fingers crossed!

Scratch that! 8s!!!

Bah, it was 4th after a horrible start, nothing worse than your chances being doomed after a few seconds of the race

rossom

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

A win is a win

--

Rossom,

Lutine Bell is now 11/1! Fingers crossed!

Scratch that! 8s!!!

Bah, it was 4th after a horrible start, nothing worse than your chances being doomed after a few seconds of the race

Missing the break didn't cost him much Moscow. Ground was a lot softer than I thought it was and that put paid to his chances. 4th on ground that didn't suit was still a very good run, especially as Hughes never used the whip once. He'll be out on proper quick ground NTO

Imhof Tank

rossom wrote: »

Missing the break didn't cost him much Moscow. Ground was a lot softer than I thought it was and that put paid to his chances. 4th on ground that didn't suit was still a very good run, especially as Hughes never used the whip once. He'll be out on proper quick ground NTO

Missing the break - thats one way of putting it.

Go back and look at the start again - the hood came off very, very late. And he had stood blindfolded and quiet as a lamb in the stalls for an age beforehand.