2012 York Dante Meeting (16th - 18th May)

MoscowFlyer

Tomorrow is Day One of the famous York Dante Meeting. A few decent races to kick of the meeting and they are absolutely wide open. Rain has been staying away recently so the ground should be getting close to the good side of things which is good news after last weeks mudfest at Chester.

All the action starts at 1.30pm! Let's hope for some good racing and a few winners!

Couple of picks for tomorrow that have popped up on my Tracker:

THE FUN CRUSHER - (York, 15:35)

ARDMAY - (York, 16:45)

Good Luck!

rossom

1.30 York

New Hampshire 16/1

Fascinating contender for Tony Coyle whose last race makes for incredibly hard reading. Previously with John Gosden, this 4 year old made his debut of Coyle at Ripon last month after being gelded in a 4 runner affair which makes for extremely difficult reading. After watching this race numerous times, I've come to the conclusion where I think there was no fluke about New Hampshire's effort. Making the running under tomorrow's jockey Lee Topliss, it appeared to my eyes to be a fairly steady pace. Coming into the home straight, New Hampshire was headed by two of his rivals before finding more until he became very uncontrollable as he drifted all the way to the near side rail and even collided with the fence losing momentum before eventually going down by 1.5L. During his manoeuvre, I'm guessing New Hampshire lost about 7 or 8L and if reading it as true form it was a really excellent effort. The winner Jet Away is a 114 rated animal who has won off a similar break before and if New Hampshire ran in a straight line he would surely have run out the race winner. Furthermore, the 3rd home has won off a mark of 95 last year and the last to finish Black Spirit is a 100 rated horse so if looking at the form literally New Hampshire's handicap mark of 90 looks extremely lenient.

When with John Gosden, New Hampshire put in some decent efforts including a 4L beaten 5th at Lingfield off a mark of 89 when the front four home were held up and a 0.5L beaten 2nd at Kempton off a mark of 84. Even if you disregard New Hampshire's last run, if you factor in the potential improvement the horse could get from turning 4, being gelded and the switch to a new trainer then his mark of 90 certainly looks feasible. Tomorrow, he faces a tough task a completely different prospect in this 14 runner field but I genuinely think New Hampshire is very well handicapped off a mark of 90. I think its very, very interesting that Coyle has New Hampshire entered into the Group 2 Hardwick Stakes next month which is his only horse with any fancy entries. Connections paid 20,000gns to acquire New Hampshire so they obviously felt he had significant scope to improve. The return to the left handed York should definitely help considering his huge tendency to veer left on his last start. Again the excellent Lee Topliss takes the ride and he takes off a very valuable 3lbs. He could win this easily or fail miserably but at 16/1 I'm trusting my reading of his last race and I think he can run a massive race.

2.00 York

Medici Time 40/1

Absolutely love trying to solve these big field sprint handicaps and I'm settling for Tim Easterby's apparent 2nd string in the shape of Medici Time. Granted, I may be mad for taking on Shropshire who was beaten a neck by Maarek on his last start considering I rate the winner so much but for some reason I just don't like him. I think Shropshire actually raced on the better side of the track even though Maarek won on the other side. Barring the winner, nothing came from off the pace and I think the race panned out in a way that suited Shropshire. Finally, in Shropshire's two runs at the track he's finished well down the field twice so there is a definite uncertainty about his ability to act at York and he probably likes the ground a bit softer than it currently is.

Medici Time comes here on the back of a break from October but has a fantastic record running fresh. In the last 3 years from pretty much the same break, he's won once and come 2nd twice so I am certainly buoyed by his excellent record fresh. His last 4 races last year were solid without being spectacular and as a result he's fallen 4lb in the handicap to a mark of 85 which I certainly think is very workable. He's now only 1lb above his last winning mark which came at Newmarket last June where he won by a neck after getting up close home over the 5f trip. The form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Lujeanie finishing 3rd behind Murura on his next start with a 4lb higher mark and it was certainly a likeable effort by Medici Time. On his next start after that, and on his 5th last start, Medici Time ran a very good 1.25L beaten 4th off a mark of 89 at Ascot. Ignoring the winner who was clearly extremely well handicapped and very unlucky in running, the form of that race looks solid with the 2nd Sohraab holding his form well off the same mark and the 3rd Confessional has won again since off a 3lb higher mark.

Although he hasn't won over 6f since 2009, I've watched and rewatched a lot of Medici Time's 5f victories and on several occasions it looks as if the 6f trip would definitely suit. Medici Time has had 3 starts at York including a win over 5f last June so he clearly goes well at the track. Studying previous similar events at York, I think the draw in stall 16 should be absolutely ideal for Medici Time and even if low numbers prove to be favoured the fact this 7 year old is generally held up should allow him to switch tactics if needed. Tom Eaves takes the ride and clearly gets on very well with this animal and he is a very encouraging jockey booking in my eyes. From his two rides on Medici Time, Eaves boasts a win at the course as well as a less than 2L beaten 4th and its a major positive in my eyes. Although most of his opposition have had runs this season, Medici Time has a great record fresh which I'm sure he can use to his advantage. Given the size of the field, he should get the fast pace that will suit which should hopefully allow him to swoop fast and late. Trainer Tim Easterby is in good form and off a mark of 85 I think he's very overpriced at 40s, and looks huge at 75s on Betfair. If all goes to plan, I'm confident of a very big run from Medici Time and hopefully he can land this valuable handicap.

Goldcupfav

2.00 Hard to sort out but going to side with Tajneed ew.

3.00 Mayson looks to have improved from 3-4 and i think the 6f will suit him better than 5f. Think he will go very close in this and is worth following for the season.

3.35 The Fun Crusher also went into my tracker after his first run this season. Not sure if i will get involved here thought.

4.10 Like Tatlisu's first run he was all over the place and just got up at the finished should have learned plenty from that run . Will be doubling him up Mayson.

Id say Twirl will take the Musidora but wont be getting involved betting wise in this race.

rossom

3.35 York

Granston 20/1

If Chilly Filly wins I'll be annoyed but her quirks have just put me off. Resultantly, I'm siding with James Bethall's truly excellent servent Granston who I think could run a very big race and upstage his field of juniors. Now 11 years old, Granston is one of the great advertisements to racing, especially considering his ability to operate on such a high level. Tomorrow Granston makes his seasonal reappearance and has an absolutely tremendous record doing so in the past few years. His last 4 seasonal reappearances read 1-2-2-2 and he was only beaten by more than 1.5L once, which was against subsequent Breeders Cup Turf winning Dangerous Midge so its clear he ran into a good thing that year! Last year Granston made his reappearance off a mark of 84 where he ran out an impressive winner by 1.5L at Beverley. He also demonstrated that this wasn't a flash in the pan as he continued to run good races including two narrow defeats off a mark of 88, both in Class 3 events. Tomorrow, he returns off a mark of 85 and I certainly think he looks well handicapped. Moreover, this will be his first return to a Class 4 event since his victory last year. He clearly goes well at the track and although he hasn't won he's been beaten 1.5L less on 3 of his 5 visits to the track. Graham Gibbons takes the ride tomorrow and he was on board for his successful reappearance last year. Trainer James Bethall is in very good form at present and this represents the trainer's only runner of the day. Although clearly the most exposed in the field, Granston has an outstanding record fresh and if continuing that trend I think he can run a very big race at 20/1 and I'll be absolutely chuffed if this 11 year old can spring a bit of a shock by landing this 20 runner event.

RichieLawlor

The only good thing about this meeting is that when it is over its Frankel time

mike65

Hugh Taylor who is firing in the winners this year has gone for the Fun Crusher.

mike65

My hugely speculative e/w Canadian mainly low draws.

YORK 16:45 HANDICAP 7f
16-05-2012 16:45
Win or E/W
Intuition @ 17.00 (GP)

YORK 15:35 HANDICAP 1m 4f
16-05-2012 15:35
Win or E/W
Mulaqen @ 12.00 (GP)

YORK 15:00 DUKE OF YORK STAKES (GROUP 2) 6f
16-05-2012 15:00
Win or E/W
Bogart @ 26.00 (GP)

YORK 14:00 HANDICAP 6f
16-05-2012 14:00
Win or E/W
Khawatim @ 51.00 (GP)

YORK 13:30 HANDICAP 1m 2f 88y
16-05-2012 13:30
Win or E/W
New Hampshire @ 17.00 (GP)

MoscowFlyer

Space War is my E/W punt in the opener.

MoscowFlyer

This French runner RESTIADARGENT is giving me some interest here. Boom or Bust selection I think. A fiver E/W @ 16s for some interest.

MoscowFlyer

If ERNEST HEMINGWAY can take to the turf the way he took to the A/W in Dundalk we could see a really good performance tomorrow.

mr.jingle

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

If ERNEST HEMINGWAY can take to the turf the way he took to the A/W in Dundalk we could see a really good performance tomorrow.

Yes looking forward to seeing him run tomorrow the way he won in Dundalk was great but it's hard to know what to expect upped to a Group 2 contest against horse's with decent looking form. On his form front Handazan gave it a little boost tonight coming 2nd to stablemate Mizani a short head down but clear of the rest but still that only looks minor form compared to Mandaean, Fencing, Bonfire and Ektihaam's runs so far but wouldn't be suprised to see him go close

MoscowFlyer

Yeah Im probably getting overexcited by him simply on the basis of that one run but afterwards I couldn't wait to see him in his next outting. The ground has gotten good which will be a big help but like you say how will he handle the big step up in class.

rossom

3.00 York

Common Touch 14/1 NAP

Although Mijhaar mite well be too good for this field, I'm definitely willing to take him on. Firstly, the step back to 1m may not suit and although he put in a cracking effort in a Group 2, he was last seen coming 2nd in a handicap off a 6lb lower mark so its certainly feasible that he may not have too much wiggle room off his mark of 102. Resultantly, I'm plumping for Richard Fahey's Common Touch who I think still has the profile of a horse that has not yet finished improving and who looks a very overpriced alternative at 14/1. With only 7 career starts to date, Common Touch has hardly done much wrong winning 3 times and finishing 2nd a further twice. After making a successful debut as a 2 year old, he was slightly disappointing on his 2nd and final 2 YO start in a handicap debut off a mark of 80 when finishing a 2L beaten 4th.

Common Touch really excelled himself as a 3 year old and demonstrated how progressive an animal he was. On the back of a 7 month break, he ran a very good 0.5L beaten 2nd at Beverley off a mark of 80. In the 5 runner field, Common Touch broke well and pulled very hard early on as Paul Hanagan looked for a bit of cover. After about a furlong or so he got this cover and eventually went down narrowly in a tight finish. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day, especially given the winner Belle Royale has turned out to be a very progressive animal who rounded off his 3 year old campaign by winning 3 on the trot, the last impressively off a mark of 102 and the 3rd Kingscroft has also won off a 5lb higher mark. Risen 3lb for that effort, Common Touch returned to winning ways when landing a handicap at the course tomorrow over 7f by 1.25L. It was a very likeable effort and Common Touch saw out the trip very well and it was a tenacious and determined effort by Common Touch.

Risen 5lb for this effort to a mark of 88, Common Touch demonstrated his progressive nature when running out a very impressive winner over the same C+D as his win 10 days earlier as he romped home by 3.25L. In the field of 14, he was settled towards the rear and he made some very good progress before pulling right away in the final 150 yards to score in eye catching fashion. That effort demonstrated that the step up to a mile would suit. After this, Common Touch was risen 9lb to a mark of 97 as he attempted to land the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot but you have to ignore that effort. There was a massive bias to the group that raced in high numbers and Common Touch was part of the group that were clearly racing on the slower part of the track. The slightly softer Good to Soft going may also not have been ideal but that is unclear and hopefully it doesn't rain tomorrow or does only very slightly.

Common Touch had his final start last July where he put in a good display to finish a 0.75L beaten 2nd at Goodwood off a mark of 95 - the same mark he races off tomorrow. That day, he was ridden along from a fair way out which is unlike him and he only really got going late on over the 7f trip as he made up a lot of ground late on. On the basis of this effort and his impressive win over the same trip at York, I really think a mile will suit him. Nevertheless, that race was only 0.33 seconds slower than Strong Suit's Group 2 victory the day before (although ground was probably a bit drier for this race) and the form looks good too. The winner Webbow put in a very good 1L beaten 2nd behind the very talented Eton Rifles on his next start whilst the 3rd Smarty Socks has won since off a 2lb higher mark and has put in a very good performance off a mark of 102 as well.

Tomorrow, Common Touch must overcome a 295 day absence if he wants to land this Listed handicap. However, he has a very good record fresh with his narrow 2nd behind the progressive Belle Royale coming on his seasonal reappearance and he also won on debut. He returns tomorrow to York where he has an outstanding record of 3 wins from 4 starts and he clearly absolutely loves it around here. Based on his progressive profile and his effort of the same handicap mark on his last start, I think Common Touch will be a horse rated in the 100s very soon. Freddy Tylicki takes the ride and was successful on his only previous effort on this now 4 year old. He's trainer Richard Fahey's apparent second string in the betting but that is of absolutely no concern to me. I think its also very interesting to note that one of the owners Nick Wrigley used to be the steward at the track and he obviously enjoys having winners here so this has probably been his aim for quite a while. The draw in stall 9 shouldn't be too much of an issue give he can sit off the pace and with both the horses and Richard Fahey's records at the track I'm very, very confident of a huge run from Common Touch tomorrow at a lovely price.

rossom

1.30 York

Cocktail Charlie 20/1

Tim Easterby's 4 year old looks a very big price if you discount his reappearance run at Beverley on soft ground that probably didn't suit where he disappointed. Moreover, he should be sharper for that reappearance run. Although winless since his debut, Cocktail Charlie posted some very solid efforts during his 3 year old campaign last year most notably at a 1L beaten York 6f event off a mark of 92, a 2.75L defeat at Newmarket off a mark of 94 and 3 starts ago last August a 2L defeat off a mark of 90 in soft ground over 5f at Catterick. Tomorrow he races off a mark of 85 and looks rather well handicapped, especially on his narrow defeat off a 7lb higher mark in a race where the form looks very strong. If bouncing back to the form he showed last year Time Easterby's charge looks decently drawn in stall 11 and looks rather overpriced in a competitive little heat.

2.00 York

Beatrice Aurore 9/1

I believe John Dunlop's 4 year old looks pretty overpriced at 9s. I too was rather taken with her reappearance behind Questionning and Twice Over and I certainly think she's going to come on a lot for that run. Twice Over is a Group 1 winning performer whilst Questionning has acquitted himself very well in his subsequent Group 2 and Group 3 races and if she was not fully wound up for her this 2L beaten 3rd I think she could be very hard to beat. Winner of a Group 3 in France in the summer and a narrow loser in a Group 1 over in Italy, she's clearly proven in Group Company and I think the step up an extra furlong will clearly help her chances. I also think her returning to face her own sex will definitely help her chances tomorrow as she looks to land her first Group 2. With John Dunlop in ok but not blistering form, Ryan Moore keeping the ride is a big bonus in what represents the trainer's only runner at a track where he has a tremendous 32% strike rate.

UrbanSea

Cocktail Charlie is a horse I've been following and one that I like today, as well as Titus Mills each way in the 3.00 o'clock.

The other two I like are Sheztheman at Salisbury. Second to the Godolphin filly who is going for the Oaks looks really strong form, as well as Princess Caetani who I followed last season, who caught the eye first time out this year. Going to do a euro lucky 15 on them, though I may replace Titus Mills with someone like Legendary Times at Gowran or Pat Flynn's other runner with JOB riding, but the price is only about 4/1, thought he'd be double that

klairondavis

Really taken with Gosden's filly yesterday. Should take all the beating in the Epsom Oaks.

MoscowFlyer

Ernest Hemingway had nothing when asked, Bonfire looked half decent but can he put it up against Camelot in the Derby?

11/10
8/1

Current odds

dave3004

Course form is crucial at York.

Sadeek's Song is top weight but I think he might be up to this.

His last run has worried me but should come on for the run and has run well at York before which is a major plus.

Split stakes on Sadeek's Song and Deauville Flyer who always runs well at York.

Will see how they look in the paddock first. If they look well in themselves I'll go for this.

Tepmokea & Crackentorp to fill the first four.

Actually….I wonder would you make a profit from backing trifectas/first 4s boxing only the horses with previous course form at York….

Might try that out !

dave3004

In the 3.35 at York the outsider is the one I will be with.

Tim Easterby's yard are flying. Carter is taking 5lbs off which is crucial in a 5f sprint.

Fayr Fall is 50/1 most places and bigger. Probably treble figues on betfair but I dont see why. He's not blessed with pace and seems a 6f horse to me.

He's ran twice at York. First was over 5f and he was slow out the gates and finished 5th. The two horses who went on and won 4L to the rest are rated about 88 now. The horse just ahead of him a 1/2 length won his last race and is rated in the 80s too.

His other run at York was over 7f where he couldnt reach the winner (ran outta steam last 50 yards) but a good second nonetheless.

His first run of the season wasnt great but I'd be willing to put a line through it and say he'll come on for the run. He's a bit of a stuffy horse by the looks of him and I think he's massively overpriced in a race where none of the runners have proven course form.

Just checked....hes 100 on betfair !!!!!!!!