Milk Quota 2015 - Expansion??

follower

Currently have 100 cows and want to expand to 112 possibly 130. However, this will require an investment of approx €60k (for 112 cows) to cover the cost of an extension in the parlour, opening up the cubicle shed etc. Am I mad to be considering expansion with the impending abolishment of the quota? I have spoke to several farmers all with very different views. Many have said stay at my current level and wait and see what happens after the 1st April '15

What are the rest of ye're plans?

grumpyfarmer

Current position is milking 80-85 cows rearing 20 replacements plus 10-12 others up to 2 year olds on 113 acres supply in the region of 460000 -500000 litres and my plans for expansion post 2015 are none... what's above is more than enough for any one person to work... i owe no one anything and hope to keep it that way. i fail to see the advantage of ploughing oneself in to massive debt to make more work and put more pressure on themselves for what?? it's not to make more money the banks and the extra labour will be getting that and if one does manage to get it for themselves when are they going to find the time to enjoy it and life... i think teagasc and the like have alot to answer for trying to convince everyone that bigger is better... i can see alot of problems coming down the track... that's just my personal opinion... rant over... ;-)

6480

grumpyfarmer wrote: »

Current position is milking 80-85 cows rearing 20 replacements plus 10-12 others up to 2 year olds on 113 acres supply in the region of 460000 -500000 litres and my plans for expansion post 2015 are none... what's above is more than enough for any one person to work... i owe no one anything and hope to keep it that way. i fail to see the advantage of ploughing oneself in to massive debt to make more work and put more pressure on themselves for what?? it's not to make more money the banks and the extra labour will be getting that and if one does manage to get it for themselves when are they going to find the time to enjoy it and life... i think teagasc and the like have alot to answer for trying to convince everyone that bigger is better... i can see alot of problems coming down the track... that's just my personal opinion... rant over... ;-)

Follower i cant see why u need to spend 60 grand on 30 more cows if ur parlour will get a 100 through it now whats wrong that 25 to 30 more cant
Grumpyfarmer
thats the best approuch i have heard in a long time . ur dead right about borrowing money no point having a huge batch of cows and being afraid to look at bank balance , its like the 07 boom in building sheds for the grant all built but some lads got carried away and the sheds are empty since. and in 2015 if we all expand like hell the co ops will have milk through at them and they can pay what they like for it ,thats why milk price is falling at the min lots of it on the world markets

follower

Currently my parlour is an 8 unit parlour and its at full capacity at 80 cows however we're milking 100 cows in it. It really needs an update at this stage, the machine is getting old and the roof & structure needs to be repaired. The auld man is retiring this year and I will be down on labour at milking time. My reasoning in getting the new parlour is to be able to operate everything single handily. My current position is that I own 50 hec and lease 18 hec with 100 cows quota of 481,000lts (enough for 90). I have 33 heifers/recycled cows for breeding and I have 35 replacement heifer calves. The investment of €60k will hopefully reduce my need to hire someone to replace my father. Sound reasonable?

yellow50HX

can understand where your coming from with the palour upgrade but the grummpy fella does have a point. if your going to expand do you have the current facilites and land???? if you have the land at present to go bigger then that might be ok. you say yuour milking 100 with quota for 80 might be better to upgrade the parlour and quota so you can do 100 1st. i know a few fellas around here who are going to wait till 2016 to see what happens before committignto more debt have to agree with them, these are fellas that built sheds in 07 and 08 so have the facilites do are waiting to see what happens before buliding new palours and buying in cows and more importantly extra cows. if your dad is retiring then he proably rememebres what happened in the late 70's early 80's when every farmer was told to milk cows and expand a lot of them got caught out halfway through their expanision when the quotas came in. their repayments where based on thier final output but what they could actually pay was from what they could actually do.

bob charles

investment that shows a return is always worth while, whether is a reduction on labour or just making life easy for yourself. 60k isnt allot of money to borrow to make life easier. its only 2 years wages, and best is machinery doesnt arrive into milking in the morning hungover or in a foul mood. Examine every option regarding design etc before building

maxxuumman

Personally, I think we are being sold a pup. Aren't we all better off milking what we have and getting an okay price, rather than milking once and a half the number of cows to be making the same money.
Fair enough, a small percent expansion, that your existing setup can carry, as it the case with the OP, but I cant understand the thinking behind the likes of the new entrants getting quota for ~40 cows and borrowing for 100 or 200 cow setup, with the attitude that it will all come good in 2015.

People are borrowing, for a 100%+ expansion without even knowing what the processors conditions are re buying the milk.
I'm all for progress, but a guy going from 100 to 150 cows because he cant make money from 100 ... come on.

PS. First post ... long time watcher ... hi all

Fermec

Hi Lads. Ye are all Making Fierce Sense here. Were Milking 63 Cows on 150 acres & doing fine. Ok the Farm is Capable of more,& Maybe ill go to 80-90 cows in 2015. But my Motto has always been Efficency is more Important than Scale.Im involved in Macra & a Discussion Group & it Seems if ur Not talking about expansion they dont want to talk to you. Look if you cant make a Living at 50,60,70 whatever number of cows then you shoudnt be at it. I Remmember as a young fella Anybody with a 100 cows was considered a "BIG" Farmer! Now its 150 +... Now some of those guys are still milking the 100 & doing just fine, & others have expanded over the 200 mark,& im sure there Milk Cheques are Much Bigger, But There Expenses are Much Bigger Too!, Well as the Saying Goes " You Cant Take it with you"!..

Farmer Pudsey

Follower you have a land base of 125 acres milking 100 cows. Is the leased 45 acres near you. I be very slow to expand cow numbers as 100 cows is the outside limit one labour unit can handle efficently. No point in going to 120 cows and having a large meal bill taking away your margin.

What is your cows are averaging about a little less than 1200 gallons maybe the way to go is to try with the same no of cows to push towards 6000litres which is about 1300 gallons and try to increase solids if possible but not using extral meal to do it.

From what you have said the parlor is a no brainer as trying to milk that number of cows with am eight unit parlour is slavery nearly 14 rounds morning and evening.

Post 2015 farmers who can adapt will be the winners if milk price is high you can use meal to get the maximun out of your cows and if it is low reduce costs to reduce supply.

For this you do not want an extreme cow but rather one that will be hardy but capable of milking a bit extra with a bit of ration

case 5150

milking 110 at the minute on 85 acres, secured lease on neighbouring farm of 45 acres 3 weeks ago, leased for 15 yr, sprayed it all off last week going stitchin in when the weather right, plan is by 2015 to calve 150 cows down and use the fathers farm of 80 acres as a outfarm for silage and heifers, labour units be myself and dad on a low cost system feed mainly for grass and about 500kg concentrates year calving from february 1st and cows fulltime out by calving, thats the plan anyway hopefully work out now

keep going

maxxuumman wrote: »

Personally, I think we are being sold a pup. Aren't we all better off milking what we have and getting an okay price, rather than milking once and a half the number of cows to be making the same money.
Fair enough, a small percent expansion, that your existing setup can carry, as it the case with the OP, but I cant understand the thinking behind the likes of the new entrants getting quota for ~40 cows and borrowing for 100 or 200 cow setup, with the attitude that it will all come good in 2015.

People are borrowing, for a 100%+ expansion without even knowing what the processors conditions are re buying the milk.
I'm all for progress, but a guy going from 100 to 150 cows because he cant make money from 100 ... come on.

PS. First post ... long time watcher ... hi all

yeah but the problem is we are not going to be garunteed any price now as p[rices are going to follow world prices eg 09 and i think 2013/2014 and that has nothing to do with quotas going,its world production.as for expansion two things most people should avoid,borrowing too much and putting yourself in a position of empolying labour.it does work for some but in general i think farmers make the worst bosses.the other thing is expansion takes time-its taken me since 09 to go from 40 to possibly 90-100 cows in 2015.as i have said before here expanding is easier said than done

Timmaay

Hmmm, alot of caution being displayed here! Me and my father have about 80 cows in total at the minute, I realistically can and hope to double the number of cows post quote, our stocking rate is low enough at the minute, the only hurdle here is if I can secure a long term lease on the rented land. I'm in no rush at the minute to build up the cownumbers before 2015, the superlevy issue is not going to go away, and we do not have the building or a good enough parlour yet.

Of course, being efficient should go hand in hand with trying to achieve scale, but more cows does mean more milk, and in a low cost Irish grass based system, this should mean more profits!! In terms of having large borrowings, obviously this needs caution, the larger your borrowings are the more risk you are taking against any rise in interest rates etc.

What I am looking at over the next few years is:

-How secure my land base will be (ie can I get a long term lease on rented land)
-Processing capacity/rights with Glanbia (who we supply), this will influence if its worth sticking at higher cost winter milk, or changing over to spring milk (which all the teagasc lads are really pushing). Spring milk might be more efficient, but if the processes fine farmers for a June peak supply due to theirown processing inabilities then spring milk might be the wrong decision.
- A financial plan that does not involve excessive borrowing to expand the herd/farm infrastructure

Once I can satisfy these main issues I will have a clearer plan for the future, but it will hopefully involve significant milk output expansion!

Viewtodiefor

Can you afford this in the future at 09 prices? this is the question everyone should be asking themselves because we will see those prices again. when? well its all about world supply and demand, we have no control over it anymore, so we just have to live with it and have a business that is able to survive periods of low cashflow. Farmers have short memories when times are good!

follower

All the comments have really got me re-thinking my business plan maybe to build up cash flow & sell some replacement heifers next spring & reduce my overdraft. The overdraft is something that we have come to depend on too much & another loan with '09 milk prices could possibly send us into troubled waters. I'm going to improve efficiency & reduce our dependance on the overdraft facility which is currently costing us 7.85% interest. Merchant credit is another area which I am keen to reduce our dependence on.

Post 2015 I will definitely hope to have surplus cash flow along with a more efficient, low labour cost business that will be able to cope with the uncertainty of the markets.

royalmeath

Everyone seems to think that milking will be a free for all post 2015 is this really going to be the case, i imagine we are going to end up with a
contract situation with the dairies where you will have to pay for the right to supply the extra milk. Has anyone sat down with their supplier and been advised on theirnpolicy post 2015

Viewtodiefor

Any suckled or tillage farmers on here getting into milk or thinking about it?

maxxuumman

royalmeath wrote: »

Everyone seems to think that milking will be a free for all post 2015 is this really going to be the case, i imagine we are going to end up with a
contract situation with the dairies where you will have to pay for the right to supply the extra milk. Has anyone sat down with their supplier and been advised on theirnpolicy post 2015

The talk was, that your future "quota" would be dictated by what you supplied in May, june and July of the reference years 2009, 2010 and 2011.
They dont care what you produce the other months of the year, once you dont exceed your " new quota". To supply more than this you need to buy a licence, this licence will cost 15c per litre if paid for up front or 5 cent a litre over 4 years.
As I said this was a few months ago that I heard this, it could be all changed. They are still making up their minds, probably will be completely different. It was from a reliable source, but things are changing every day.
I remember when I heard this, I thought to myself if the 15c stainless steel tax was applied to the Greenfields project, the project would not be viable.

rancher

maxxuumman wrote: »

The talk was, that your future "quota" would be dictated by what you supplied in May, june and July of the reference years 2009, 2010 and 2011.
They dont care what you produce the other months of the year, once you dont exceed your " new quota". To supply more than this you need to buy a licence, this licence will cost 15c per litre if paid for up front or 5 cent a litre over 4 years.
As I said this was a few months ago that I heard this, it could be all changed. They are still making up their minds, probably will be completely different. It was from a reliable source, but things are changing every day.
I remember when I heard this, I thought to myself if the 15c stainless steel tax was applied to the Greenfields project, the project would not be viable.

Heard earlier in the year that there is foreign interest in irish agribusiness, especially milk, seems they'd prefer to have their own plant here so you might not need a license, also see on a preview of tomorrows farming indo that foreign investors are looking to invest 50 million in land here....looking great for those of us retiring

suckler man

i am 15 years old and will hopefully inherit the farm with my younger brother,we have 50 acres in one block and another 45 acres 2 miles away,at the moment we have 80 suckler cows and was hoping to have 70 friesians when im older,would it be worth having dairy cows and have a perfect shed to put the parlour but need to expand a shed to fit cubicles in.could anyone let me know what it would cost to get up and running or would i need to purchase more land in the future, i am hoping to study dairy management when im older and then start up my dairy herd ie the quota would be gone in 2015 and ill be finished college in 2019.

kind regards,

suckler man.:-)

case 5150

time enuf thinking bout getting into milk when u have college finished and some of the world seen and when we see what way milk prices will be, but most important get ur education nd travel over first,

suckler man

case 5150 wrote: »

time enuf thinking bout getting into milk when u have college finished and some of the world seen and when we see what way milk prices will be, but most important get ur education nd travel over first,

but should i go into milking because thats the only reason why i would do dairy management and would i be in too much debt

case 5150

it is a costly system and to be honest i would wait and see what way post quota goes and are you sure your parents will sign the place over to ou at 2019

suckler man

dunno i dunno but might be able to run farm at least with my brother

6480

suckler man wrote: »

i am 15 years old and will hopefully inherit the farm with my younger brother,we have 50 acres in one block and another 45 acres 2 miles away,at the moment we have 80 suckler cows and was hoping to have 70 friesians when im older,would it be worth having dairy cows and have a perfect shed to put the parlour but need to expand a shed to fit cubicles in.could anyone let me know what it would cost to get up and running or would i need to purchase more land in the future, i am hoping to study dairy management when im older and then start up my dairy herd ie the quota would be gone in 2015 and ill be finished college in 2019.

kind regards,

suckler man.:-)

i would advise u to get some work on a large dairy farm first (100 cows) before u comit to dairy its all hard work ,

suckler man

i find sucklers are even more work,and they dont give hardly any profit

suckler man

how many cows would you be able to milk on 50 acres

suckler man

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Any suckled or tillage farmers on here getting into milk or thinking about it?

i was thinking of getting into dairy

6480

suckler man wrote: »

how many cows would you be able to milk on 50 acres

if you have good land and reseeded 50 acres you could have 60 to 70 dairy cows

suckler man

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Any suckled or tillage farmers on here getting into milk or thinking about it?[

thanks very much i think it would cost me roughly 200,000 to get fully set up.did u see the dairymaster swiftflo intro parlour very nice

suckler man

suckler man wrote: »

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Any suckled or tillage farmers on here getting into milk or thinking about it?[

thanks very much i think it would cost me roughly 200,000 to get fully set up.did u see the dairymaster swiftflo intro parlour very nice

i have all sutiable sheds but what would the cost be to set up parlour cubicles and cows and roadways and reseeding roughly cost in total

funny man

60 cows, 2 men, 200k investment wouldn't be a good idea. Do a year in agri college, a couple of years in NZ and come back to the farm. spending big money now on a small block is a large mistake.

hillclimber

Anywhere from 50 to 100 depending how much feed you buy in. Unfortunately that acreage is unlikely to provide an income for both you and your brother.

As an other poster advised make sure you travel and work elsewhere before you get buried in cows and work at home. A broader ag. degree might also give you more options down the line. You have loads of time to be planning herds etc, have some fun first:D

6480

suckler man wrote: »

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Any suckled or tillage farmers on here getting into milk or thinking about it?[

thanks very much i think it would cost me roughly 200,000 to get fully set up.did u see the dairymaster swiftflo intro parlour very nice

any cheap parlour with 6 or 8 uints that would milk cows properly would get u up and running , the days of spending vast amounts of money are gone as in starting up any business

mahoney_j

As a new entrant(father retired and handed things over to me 3 years ago) the one piece of advice id give you is to go and work first on a few dairy farms that wre relevant to ur own.On ur land base i reckon 70 cows is your max and on that your ideal cow would be a 7000 litre holstein /british freisan cross.Dont buy into all the hype tegasc have put out there about jerseys and crossbreeds,They would have no place on ur farm as you simply wouldnt be able to milk enough of them to make it worthwhile,Jerseys are ok in places like new zealand where u could milk 100s of them on a big land base.Also do a lot of research on your parlour type and dont be afraid to kit it out,I have a new westfallia parlour in this year with acrs ,feed to yield auto washer drafting dumpline and wouldnt be without any of them i was milking 64 cows all year in half an hour without cutting corners.I have a 85 acre milking platform and plan on milking about 90 cows producing 145000 gallons of milk at 500 kg solids on a tonne of meal post 2015.It will be a simple 1 man operation with some help from the da for milking and calf rearing with a 7 am start and 6 o clock finish

Viewtodiefor

Will you be able to get them back in calf without high replacement rate?

mahoney_j

Very little problems for me anyway getting them in calf ive a closed milking herd and vaccinate for bvd,Lepto,Salmonella and ibr as well as milk recording and screen milk for the aforementioned 4 times a year.Your cow is ur profit and i place a huge benefit on feeding them correctly(up to a tonne of concentrate)plus good quality grass.All my ows are in satisfactory body condition at drying off and are feed silage ad lib and a kilo of wheaten straw for the dry peroid.

Viewtodiefor

I like your ideas just womdering when you are up to full production what are your contingencies for a year like this e.g low growth, high meal price and possibly a milk price of 24 cent? I'm not trying to knock your plan i actually admire it. Are you buying in silage or renting other land?

mahoney_j

The key thing for me is i have a dry farm and whilst my cows are king my grassland is what keeps them ticking,I measure grass at least once a week and try for the most part graze grass covers of about 1400 kg,Anything over that i pull out abd wrap and that silage in times of poor growth is as good as grass.The other thing is to mot overstock the farm.As regards what to do on a year like this,This year no doubt has tested me but ive never once since March untill today when cows were housed had to feed a blade of silage.and i will feed on average 1050 kg of meal per cow which is about 150 over what i planned for but saying that my predicted 305 day yields are 1595 gallons at 3.98 fat and 3.56 protein and my average price so far this year is 31.9 cent a litre.In 2009 when the da was farming it was 1410 gallons at 4.01 fat nd 3.49 protein and average price was just over 27 cent when the base creamry price was only abour 23.The extra litres produced dilute your costs a bit.As for silage i also have another 65 acres on 2 seperate outfarms and my incalf heifers ,Weanling heifers and most of silage is sourced form here,Dont worry about knocking me ive a thick skin ,Some lads are telling me im mad goin the route im going since i started years ago but im happy with me and most importantly im making a few quid at it too!!

tomo75

Suckler Man, I think Mahoney_j is where to your experience!

freedominacup

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Any suckled or tillage farmers on here getting into milk or thinking about it?

One of the neighbours was pouring concrete in his new parlour yesterday. Anyone who was on the Macra farm walks on the Saturday of that conference in Waterford was on his farm. 160 pedigree/pure breed sucklers at least part converting to dairy now.

F.D

mahoney_j wrote: »

The key thing for me is i have a dry farm and whilst my cows are king my grassland is what keeps them ticking,I measure grass at least once a week and try for the most part graze grass covers of about 1400 kg,Anything over that i pull out abd wrap and that silage in times of poor growth is as good as grass.The other thing is to mot overstock the farm.As regards what to do on a year like this,This year no doubt has tested me but ive never once since March untill today when cows were housed had to feed a blade of silage.and i will feed on average 1050 kg of meal per cow which is about 150 over what i planned for but saying that my predicted 305 day yields are 1595 gallons at 3.98 fat and 3.56 protein and my average price so far this year is 31.9 cent a litre.In 2009 when the da was farming it was 1410 gallons at 4.01 fat nd 3.49 protein and average price was just over 27 cent when the base creamry price was only abour 23.The extra litres produced dilute your costs a bit.As for silage i also have another 65 acres on 2 seperate outfarms and my incalf heifers ,Weanling heifers and most of silage is sourced form here,Dont worry about knocking me ive a thick skin ,Some lads are telling me im mad goin the route im going since i started years ago but im happy with me and most importantly im making a few quid at it too!!

Good to see some one as positive as you posting, and your point above about not overstocking is key!! I think less but higher yielding cows is better, i think the same will carry true for all aspects of livestock after a year like this, keep it up

Viewtodiefor

freedominacup wrote: »

One of the neighbours was pouring concrete in his new parlour yesterday. Anyone who was on the Macra farm walks on the Saturday of that conference in Waterford was on his farm. 160 pedigree/pure breed sucklers at least part converting to dairy now.

Man in Dunhill I'm guessing

freedominacup

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Man in Dunhill I'm guessing

I had a feeling you were local enough to me;)

Viewtodiefor

freedominacup wrote: »

I had a feeling you were local enough to me;)

There ya r now! What gave u that feeling ?

freedominacup

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

There ya r now! What gave u that feeling ?

Username and a few things you posted months back. I couldn't tell you what posts at this stage but they rang a bell. Plus you've been awol for a couple of months other than the occasional bomb on the Glanbia thread.

Viewtodiefor

freedominacup wrote: »

Username and a few things you posted months back. I couldn't tell you what posts at this stage but they rang a bell. Plus you've been awol for a couple of months other than the occasional bomb on the Glanbia thread.

Ya getting a good kick outa Glanbia thread! So Hav you figured out where I am then?

freedominacup

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Ya getting a good kick outa Glanbia thread! So Hav you figured out where I am then?

Sayin' nothin and keepin sayin nothin:p

Viewtodiefor

freedominacup wrote: »

Sayin' nothin and keepin sayin nothin:p

Ah jaysus n I thought u knew me!

freedominacup

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Ah jaysus n I thought u knew me!

suckler man

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

I like your ideas just womdering when you are up to full production what are your contingencies for a year like this e.g low growth, high meal price and possibly a milk price of 24 cent? I'm not trying to knock your plan i actually admire it. Are you buying in silage or renting other land?

i would use the 50 acres as grazing ground and have a 45 acre farm 2 miles away,i would use the 45 acres for young stock and silage ground,so i would have 95 acres in total

suckler man

mahoney_j wrote: »

The key thing for me is i have a dry farm and whilst my cows are king my grassland is what keeps them ticking,I measure grass at least once a week and try for the most part graze grass covers of about 1400 kg,Anything over that i pull out abd wrap and that silage in times of poor growth is as good as grass.The other thing is to mot overstock the farm.As regards what to do on a year like this,This year no doubt has tested me but ive never once since March untill today when cows were housed had to feed a blade of silage.and i will feed on average 1050 kg of meal per cow which is about 150 over what i planned for but saying that my predicted 305 day yields are 1595 gallons at 3.98 fat and 3.56 protein and my average price so far this year is 31.9 cent a litre.In 2009 when the da was farming it was 1410 gallons at 4.01 fat nd 3.49 protein and average price was just over 27 cent when the base creamry price was only abour 23.The extra litres produced dilute your costs a bit.As for silage i also have another 65 acres on 2 seperate outfarms and my incalf heifers ,Weanling heifers and most of silage is sourced form here,Dont worry about knocking me ive a thick skin ,Some lads are telling me im mad goin the route im going since i started years ago but im happy with me and most importantly im making a few quid at it too!!

where you from and because when im older i could get apprenticeship off u