Leinster v Glasgow Warriors, 12/5/2012, 7.35 pm, RDS. Live on TG4, S4C and BBC Alba

totallegend

Leinster go into this match as unbackable favourites; 1/9 with Paddy Power and a 13-point handicap. When you examine the form book, it’s not hard to see why. Leinster secured top spot in the league with two games to go but haven’t taken their foot off the pedal, with away wins in Belfast and Newport copperfastening their right to home advantage in the semi-final (and in the final, should they qualify).
However, Glasgow have the distinction of being one of only two sides to beat Leinster all season, edging a win over a second-string Leinster outfit on a scoreline of 19-23 at the RDS in September. Since then, however, Leinster have lost only once in 25 games and have regained the upper hand over Glasgow, securing a brace of wins in the Heineken Cup pool stages and a draw in the return league fixture at Firhill.

So, as the sides prepare to meet for the fifth time this season, the question arises, how can Glasgow target Leinster and overturn the odds? Looking at their teamsheet, the names that jump out point to one game-plan; big, mobile ball carriers taking on the Leinster defence close in and trying to punch holes. Graeme Morrison will be used to target the backline, but Glasgow’s real stars are in the pack; Richie Gray is fast becoming the best second-row in the Northern Hemisphere and his partner, Al Kellock is no slouch either. John Barclay has not really reached the heights of two seasons ago but is still a quality operator.

Behind the scrum, Glasgow may struggle to find the flair required and the loss of Rory Lamont through injury was a further blow in this department. Cusiter and Weir are solid and reliable, but while Cusiter is quick and will look for a break, it’s difficult to see too much flair coming from the half-back axis. Increasingly, Glasgow have relied on their rising star, Stuart Hogg, to provide the flair required to penetrate opposing defences. After a Six Nations which saw him announce himself on the international stage, he gave further evidence of his potential with a hat-trick against Munster in Musgrave Park.
Head coach Sean Lineen is under no illusions; he told www.glasgowwarriors.org, "We've shown character, ability and tenacity to get ourselves into the semi-finals. The challenge now is to bring out those qualities in even bigger quantities to beat the best team in Europe."

The Leinster line-up has been chopped and changed in recent weeks; an entirely different starting XV took the field against the Dragons compared to the one which started in Bordeaux a week earlier and, in all, 38 different players featured in those two games. This shows the success that Joe Schmidt and his coaching staff have had in building not only a large squad but a deep one, in which there is genuine alternatives to the first-choice players. However, with his selection for tomorrow, Schmidt has opted for the strongest line-up available, presumably with one eye on next Saturday’s Heineken Cup decider. To some extent, Leinster have used the Rabo league strategically to bring their first string players up to match-readiness for the Heineken Cup and this match is no different. "We'll probably approach Saturday's game in a similar way to last year," said Schmidt, as reported on www.rabodirectpro12.com. "You've got to get some game time under your belt; you've got some momentum and some rhythm so we'll be looking to get some of that ahead of next week.” The injuries keeping Brian O'Driscoll and Rob Kearney are described as minor niggles and will hopefully not affect selection for next week; Eoin O'Malley returns after injury and Isa Nacewa moves to 15.
The challenge for them is to keep focussed on the job at hand, a fact acknowledged by Schmidt; "I think fighting on two fronts makes it harder, to be honest. Whenever you're trying to catch two balls at the same time you can get distracted by one target or the other”. So while certain players will view this match as an opportunity to nail down their spot for next weekend, that can’t be allowed to distract from the threat posed by Glasgow. One such player will be Dave Kearney, who has benefitted from the injury to Luke Fitzgerald and looks to be in a head-to-head battle with Fergus McFadden for the wing berth next week. Other players locked in a battle for selection for next week, like Reddan/Boss and McLaughlin/Jennings, will be looking to make a mark on this fixture.

When everything is taken into consideration, this is Leinster’s game to lose. If their heads are in the right place, they have the quality to strangle Glasgow up front and cut them to shreds out wide, but focus on tomorrow’s game will be the key.
VERDICT: Leinster to win
Leinster Rugby:
15: Isa Nacewa
14: Fergus McFadden
13: Eoin O'Malley
12: Gordon D'Arcy
11: David Kearney
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Eoin Reddan
1: Cian Healy
2: Richardt Strauss
3: Mike Ross
4: Brad Thorn
5: Devin Toner
6: Sean O'Brien
7: Shane Jennings
8: Jamie Heaslip CAPTAIN
REPLACEMENTS:
16: Sean Cronin
17: Heinke van der Merwe
18: Nathan White
19: Leo Cullen
20: Kevin McLaughlin
21: Isaac Boss
22: Ian Madigan
23: Andrew Conway

Glasgow Warriors:
15 Stuart Hogg
14 Federico Aramburu
13 Alex Dunbar
12 Graeme Morrison
11 DTH van der Merwe
10 Duncan Weir
9 Chris Cusiter
1 Ryan Grant
2 Pat MacArthur
3 Mike Cusack
4 Richie Gray
5 Al Kellock (CAPTAIN)
6 Rob Harley
7 Chris Fusaro
8 John Barclay

SUBSTITUTES
16 Dougie Hall
17 Jon Welsh
18 Moray Low
19 Tom Ryder
20 Henry Pyrgos
21 Johnnie Beattie
22 Ruaridh Jackson
23 Peter Murchie

durkadurka

I think this will be closer than the spread because:

No BOD or Kearney.
We might start hauling players off on 55 minutes whether the game is secured or not.

Slight fear of getting injured like what happened against Ulster last year?

Leinster by a score.

Quint2010

The niggles to BOD and Kearney are worrying with next weeks match in mind. The fact that neither player is being risked could mean that these "niggles" could be worse than they are letting on..

durkadurka

Quint2010 wrote: »

The niggles to BOD and Kearney are worrying with next weeks match in mind. The fact that neither player is being risked could mean that these "niggles" could be worse than they are letting on..

What niggles? Did I miss a memo?

EDIT - just saw the mention there in the write up...

WeeBushy

Quint2010 wrote: »

The niggles to BOD and Kearney are worrying with next weeks match in mind. The fact that neither player is being risked could mean that these "niggles" could be worse than they are letting on..

i really wouldn't read too much into it. Any kind of knock is not worth risking them. Maybe they are bad, but being rested for this game isn't an indication of that imo.

justsomebloke

totallegend I think you have screwed yourself over with that write up, as we'll be looking for similar excellent write up from now on.

fitz

justsomebloke wrote: »

totallegend I think you have screwed yourself over with that write up, as we'll be looking for similar excellent write up from now on.

+1
Great write up.

totallegend

justsomebloke wrote: »

totallegend I think you have screwed yourself over with that write up, as we'll be looking for similar excellent write up from now on.

If future games coincide with a mild hangover and nothing urgent on my desk, I'll gladly oblige.

its_phil

Gray versus Thorn is going to be awesome.

irishbucsfan

its_phil wrote: »

Gray versus Thorn is going to be awesome.

Gray was completely outplayed by Toner twice this season. He's not worthy of Thorn

Tox56

I doubt the niggles are too serious, Joe is showing faith in younger players who played all season.

Kearney out means we can have the experience of Isa on the pitch, but also gives Kearney Jr. and Ferg a chance to impress for the final.

Good to see Toner rewarded for his excellent season, I think he and Thorn are a naturally good combination.

EOM also gets a chance to (probably) round off his season, and as a result BOD will hopefully be able to potentially play 2 finals in 2 weeks.

Hopefully Conway is given a run too.

irishbucsfan

Bit if a playoff between Ferg and Kearney for a place in the final, will be interesting to watch

durkadurka

Good to see that some of the 'rabo team' that got us here will get to play.

CIARAN_BOYLE

A Trial for the wing sport for the final, EOM getting a run out in a semi final, thorn and toner in the second row.

Interesting exciting side.

durkadurka

Defo a wise move putting tOner in there to match Gray for heighth.

funky penguin

Nice to see EOM back. Hasn't played since we lost to the Ospreys, is it?

justsomebloke

durkadurka wrote: »

Good to see that some of the 'rabo team' that got us here will get to play.

actually only copped that now that glasgow and Ospreys are the only teams to have beaten us this year and are the probable teams we will have to face we are going to win the Rabo

durkadurka

funky penguin wrote: »

Nice to see EOM back. Hasn't played since we lost to the Ospreys, is it?

Wasn't that dricos return game?

CIARAN_BOYLE

durkadurka wrote: »

Wasn't that dricos return game?

Yeah EOM came off the bench

chancer12

Hope to see Conway bet some time as well, he has also been unlucky with injury

Podge_irl

Looking forward to seeing Thorn/Toner. Think it's a potentially excellent combo and a shame we probably won't see it again.

Hard to see anything but a Leinster win but the spread is a bit generous.

thomond2006

Boss and McLaughlin likely to start the HEC final now?

OldRio

Just checked and the game is on S4C, which has an English commentary on the red button.

Quint2010

thomond2006 wrote: »

Boss and McLaughlin likely to start the HEC final now?

Could be. Personally I would start Reddan and McLoughlin as our line out will need bolstering in the final. But Schmidt may want Boss's physicality for the final a la the Clermont game.

Tox56

OldRio wrote: »

Just checked and the game is on S4C, which has an English commentary on the red button.

I've heard it before, and their English commentary is really awful. It's like one man in a room with little knowledge of rugby talking to himself. They might make more effort for the playoffs, but you might as well watch in Welsh/Scottish/Irish.

irishbucsfan

Quint2010 wrote: »

thomond2006 wrote: »

Boss and McLaughlin likely to start the HEC final now?

Could be. Personally I would start Reddan and McLoughlin as our line out will need bolstering in the final. But Schmidt may want Boss's physicality for the final a la the Clermont game.

McLoughlin doesn't jump at the front any more. Thorn is doing it now even when KMcL is there. Id prefer Kev tbh.

Fishooks12

Would be a big mistake starting Boss in the final IMO

Cormic

Tox56 wrote: »

I've heard it before, and their English commentary is really awful. It's like one man in a room with little knowledge of rugby talking to himself. They might make more effort for the playoffs, but you might as well watch in Welsh/Scottish/Irish.

To be honest I would prefer anything over the Irish commentary.

peterako

Tox56 wrote: »

I've heard it before, and their English commentary is really awful. It's like one man in a room with little knowledge of rugby talking to himself. ......

Beats TG4 with two men in a room speaking in Irish with very little apparent knowledge

Actually, sometimes the SC4 English Comentary is pretty good....albeit sounding like it's being broadcast from a bathroom.

totallegend

I don't understand the objection to TG4, but if nothing else, it's an incentive to go down to the RDS and watch it live.

irishbucsfan

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Would be a big mistake starting Boss in the final IMO

Why? Our depth is much better than theirs.

I would start Reddan but theres definitely a lot to be said for starting Boss and bringing Reddan on with Jenno once Henry and Ferris have tired themselves out a bit. Those lads would love a shot at a jitterer like Reddan.

.ak

Yer, looking forward to heading down to the RDS for this. I hope more than just the 10k ticket sales turns up.

Interesting the EOM slots straight back into the squad. It says a lot, doesn't it? We have plenty of wing options, yet Joe moves Ferg to 14, which is the opposite side of the pitch he'd be playing on if he takes over from Fitz in the H-cup final.

What does that mean? Hard to say. Could be to accommodate baby Kearns to watch how he gets on. But then that's a lot of re-shuffling and risk involved just for that.

For me I think it's a testament to how Joe thinks of EOM, and how he wants to play this game. EOM is imo the best attacking 13 we have the squad at the moment. Even above BOD. BOD's an intergral cog to our first sheet team, but EOM has a lethal step and scores tries even in the stickiest situations. For EOM to slot back in after such a long lay off, especially when Joe has been fond of using Ferg to plug the gap at 13 with a safe pair of hands, suggests that Joe is thinking along the same lines.

Dunno, it's just my opinion mind you, but I think EOM is the closest thing we'll have to a natural born 13 for quite some years. Last season he was fantastic, this season he had a shaky start and then was laid off with an injury at the business end of the season. I think a couple of big tests will be integral to his progression, and next season should be interesting for him. I still think a Luke Fitz/EOM centre pairing has the making of being something special, dunno if we'll ever see it tho.

Fishooks12

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Why? Our depth is much better than theirs.

I would start Reddan but theres definitely a lot to be said for starting Boss and bringing Reddan on with Jenno once Henry and Ferris have tired themselves out a bit. Those lads would love a shot at a jitterer like Reddan.

Don't get me wrong I'm aware of what Boss brings to the table but I think Reddan's pros outweigh the cons

irishbucsfan

Fishooks12 wrote: »

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Why? Our depth is much better than theirs.

I would start Reddan but theres definitely a lot to be said for starting Boss and bringing Reddan on with Jenno once Henry and Ferris have tired themselves out a bit. Those lads would love a shot at a jitterer like Reddan.

Don't get me wrong I'm aware of what Boss brings to the table but I think Reddan's pros outweigh the cons

Yes but against an abrasive team like Ulster, Reddans pros might just be more effective overall in the final 30 minutes than the first 50.

The 21 jersey is just as important as the 9 jersey these days. Look at Reddan v. Italy

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Yes but against an abrasive team like Ulster, Reddans pros might just be more effective overall in the final 30 minutes than the first 50.

The 21 jersey is just as important as the 9 jersey these days. Look at Reddan v. Italy

But would you want to get into a forward orientated game against Ulster? Surely our strength and their (relative) weakness is out wide, and you would want to exploit that?

.ak

I'd be surprised if Boss starts it to be honest. I think Leinster will be looking to play the running game, rather than the physical squeeky-bum-time contest that Clermont was.

Ofcourse, the forecast will play a huge part in that too...

Fishooks12

Tox56 wrote: »

But would you want to get into a forward orientated game against Ulster? Surely our strength and their (relative) weakness is out wide, and you would want to exploit that?

That's how I'd look at it

Reddan on from the start and if Leinster get on the front foot they could be well ahead by half time

Dravokivich

justsomebloke wrote: »

actually only copped that now that glasgow and Ospreys are the only teams to have beaten us this year and are the probable teams we will have to face we are going to win the Rabo

Been thinking about it the last few days. Kinda hoping Munster win tonight tbh.

irishbucsfan

Tox56 wrote: »

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Yes but against an abrasive team like Ulster, Reddans pros might just be more effective overall in the final 30 minutes than the first 50.

The 21 jersey is just as important as the 9 jersey these days. Look at Reddan v. Italy

But would you want to get into a forward orientated game against Ulster? Surely our strength and their (relative) weakness is out wide, and you would want to exploit that?

They are even weaker out wide once D'Arcy/Whitten are on and Terblanche is off.

Isaac Boss is well capable of playing a wide game. If he wasn't then Ian Madigan would not have had such a strong season. So I don't see why playing Isaac Boss means we would play a forward orientated game in attack. That seems a very simplistic diagnosis to me. Instead you could play Boss to counter their strengths for the first 50 minutes as depriving them possession would deprive them and Pienaar opportunities to find a lead. All the while you can still spread the ball in attack.

Then in the second half you switch and bring on Reddan and really attack them. Bring on Jennings and hit them with quick ball out wide. Bring on.Toner/White/VDM and ramp up the intensity in close quarters. They lack the quality on the bench to counter this apart from possibly the second row. Suddenly you are moving them around the field with fresher options and they will get sloppy in defense out wide (tired Trimble + fresh legs + ??? = profit) and they will give up more possession and penalties in the tight (Ulster have been really poor for giving away penalties in the tight this season when the tempo picks up). Then once you're 50 points up, bring on Madigan and start really playing rugby.

That's just one approach though. I see starting Reddan as being the riskier, higher-pressure, yet more attractive option.

ray jay

.ak wrote: »

I'd be surprised if Boss starts it to be honest. I think Leinster will be looking to play the running game, rather than the physical squeeky-bum-time contest that Clermont was.

Ofcourse, the forecast will play a huge part in that too...

Yeah, Leinster's best bet would be to play at a very fast tempo since it suits their style and when it comes time to bring on subs, the replacements will be of a higher quality than Ulster's.

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

They are even weaker out wide once D'Arcy/Whitten are on and Terblanche is off.

Isaac Boss is well capable of playing a wide game. If he wasn't then Ian Madigan would not have had such a strong season. So I don't see why playing Isaac Boss means we would play a forward orientated game in attack. That seems a very simplistic diagnosis to me. Instead you could play Boss to counter their strengths for the first 50 minutes as depriving them possession would deprive them and Pienaar opportunities to find a lead. All the while you can still spread the ball in attack.

Then in the second half you switch and bring on Reddan and really attack them. Bring on Jennings and hit them with quick ball out wide. Bring on.Toner/White/VDM and ramp up the intensity in close quarters. They lack the quality on the bench to counter this apart from possibly the second row. Suddenly you are moving them around the field with fresher options and they will get sloppy in defense out wide (tired Trimble + fresh legs + ??? = profit) and they will give up more possession and penalties in the tight (Ulster have been really poor for giving away penalties in the tight this season when the tempo picks up). Then once you're 50 points up, bring on Madigan and start really playing rugby.

That's just one approach though. I see starting Reddan as being the riskier, higher-pressure, yet more attractive option.

It is more simplistic, but he offers a superior "wide game" than Boss in the same way Boss offers a superior physical presence.

You can look at it in two ways:

1) You bring Reddan on, play higher tempo and try limit the effectiveness of their powerful forwards and try wrap the game up early, then bringing on Boss to tighten up the game and ultimately win it.

2) You do what you suggest, and play a generally tighter game that won't be won early, and decided by the bench. Our bench will be far superior and take us out of sight to win.

Obviously it isn't as simple as that, but that is a general enough gameplan. I think option 2 is riskier, and unnecessary to an extent. Ulster deserve respect, but I feel we are capable of taking the game beyond them early, not leaving it to the last 30 mins.

This is the sort of decision that Schmidt is paid to get correct, and I do not envy him.

Podge_irl

I really wanna go to this but after Bordeaux and with London coming up I can't feckin afford it. So I'll be sat in front of my TV not understanding a word of TG4's coverage.

WeeBushy

Will it be broadcasted on radio anywhere? If so you could listen to that commentary instead.

irishbucsfan

In that above example option 1 is riskier. If you start with Reddan and Ulster succesfully attack the breakdown and frazzle him then you will be left without your lead and with a less potent option from the bench. That could get tricky. It's quite likely Ferris and Henry would get under Reddans skin as far lesser back rows have done in the past.

With option 2 you are more sure defensively. So there is less risk there. You will concede less and you should be ahead at the point you switch your halfbacks. You control when you can start pushing the tempo. You hold all the cards. That is a far more controlled approach.

I think you're not giving them enough respect tbh, I don't think anyone will open up a lead before half time regardless of the halfbacks.

Tox56

irishbucsfan wrote: »

In that above example option 1 is riskier. If you start with Reddan and Ulster succesfully attack the breakdown and frazzle him then you will be left without your lead and with a less potent option from the bench. That could get tricky. It's quite likely Ferris and Henry would get under Reddans skin as far lesser back rows have done in the past.

With option 2 you are more sure defensively. So there is less risk there. You will concede less and you should be ahead at the point you switch your halfbacks. You control when you can start pushing the tempo. You hold all the cards. That is a far more controlled approach.

I think you're not giving them enough respect tbh, I don't think anyone will open up a lead before half time regardless of the halfbacks.

That's the risk with playing that style, but the reward is all the momentum, confidence and the lead on the scoreboard.

The reward for playing the Boss gameplan is the subs having the time and skill to close out the game with the higher tempo. The risk of that is we let the game get too close, Ulster sense a chance of victory, they raise their game and our subs don't have the desired impact, and we lose the game.

irishbucsfan

Tox56 wrote: »

irishbucsfan wrote: »

In that above example option 1 is riskier. If you start with Reddan and Ulster succesfully attack the breakdown and frazzle him then you will be left without your lead and with a less potent option from the bench. That could get tricky. It's quite likely Ferris and Henry would get under Reddans skin as far lesser back rows have done in the past.

With option 2 you are more sure defensively. So there is less risk there. You will concede less and you should be ahead at the point you switch your halfbacks. You control when you can start pushing the tempo. You hold all the cards. That is a far more controlled approach.

I think you're not giving them enough respect tbh, I don't think anyone will open up a lead before half time regardless of the halfbacks.

That's the risk with playing that style, but the reward is all the momentum, confidence and the lead on the scoreboard.

The reward for playing the Boss gameplan is the subs having the time and skill to close out the game with the higher tempo. The risk of that is we let the game get too close, Ulster sense a chance of victory, they raise their game and our subs don't have the desired impact, and we lose the game.

Well I think that is far less likely myself. Although I would start Reddan myself, but for other reasons.

Anyway, that's a conversation for next week!

.ak

irishbucsfan wrote: »

In that above example option 1 is riskier. If you start with Reddan and Ulster succesfully attack the breakdown and frazzle him then you will be left without your lead and with a less potent option from the bench. That could get tricky. It's quite likely Ferris and Henry would get under Reddans skin as far lesser back rows have done in the past.

With option 2 you are more sure defensively. So there is less risk there. You will concede less and you should be ahead at the point you switch your halfbacks. You control when you can start pushing the tempo. You hold all the cards. That is a far more controlled approach.

I think you're not giving them enough respect tbh, I don't think anyone will open up a lead before half time regardless of the halfbacks.

It's only risky if you thought the backrow battle was gonna be 50/50... IS it? Whilst the Ulster backrow is in flying form, it's up to our backrow to protect our scrumhalf. I'd be confident in Locky, SOB and Jamie doing a good job in that respect.

But I digress... Isn't this the Leinster v Glasgow semi final thread?

[Jackass]

VERY uneasy about this game. And that's not often. I trust in Joe, but just hope we haven't under estimated them.

They have the potential to dominate the set-piece and absolutely destroy us at the break down if we don't front up, and I feel we've a few weak points that if the game goes against us, we might not have the backbone there to turn it around, ala Bordeaux.

Hopefully just nerves on my part.

Podge_irl

Backbone is one thing I would never think the Leinster team of the last few years has ever lacked.

Its certainly a potential banana skin game but that Leinster team should, and I think will, have enough to overcome a good Glasgow side.

[Jackass]

Yeah not going to disagree with that, but I feel this is more a game for the nuggets, and the likes of Locky, Leo, Bod, Kearney, Fitz missing from the first team, they'd all be starters for me (obviously Fitz is injured) and for this game I'd go with Boss too. I just think they're such a ferocious physical team, it's nine tenths of their game plan, and I hope (and ultimately will be proven by Joe no doubt) that I'm wrong, but if I was in the Glasgow camp and saw that Leinster team, I'd have a number of areas I'd target straight off the bat.

tolosenc

[Jackass] wrote: »

Yeah not going to disagree with that, but I feel this is more a game for the nuggets, and the likes of Locky, Leo, Bod, Kearney, Fitz missing from the first team, they'd all be starters for me (obviously Fitz is injured) and for this game I'd go with Boss too. I just think they're such a ferocious physical team, it's nine tenths of their game plan, and I hope (and ultimately will be proven by Joe no doubt) that I'm wrong, but if I was in the Glasgow camp and saw that Leinster team, I'd have a number of areas I'd target straight off the bat.