Talking Rugby Episode 39 - with doc as host, phatpiggins, jacothelad, thomond and 4PP

thomond2006

It's back and with a new (temporary!) host! Dave has the week off having slugged it out on the mic for 31 straight weeks so Doc hosts this week's show. I have to give him credit as he has never done anything like this before and IMO he did a smashing job tonight.

LINK: http://theworldstalking.com/2012/05/09/talking-rugby-episode-39-6am-binman/

Extra! Extra! No Dave O'Grady!!!

That's right, our anchor Dave has taken a well earned rest after 31 consecutive shows on the mic. So it's a debut for Doc as the host of Talking Rugby. This week, the main focus is on the upcoming domestic semi-final in the RaboDirect Pro12 and Aviva Premiership. We also look at the current news in the game as well as a look ahead to the final round of Top14 clashes in France.

Joining Doc on the show are Munstermen Pedro and Alan, Ulsterman William and French/Irish Exile Daithí.

COMING UP ON THE SHOW:
01:40 - The team look back on the career of Munster, Ireland and Lions flanker David Wallace, who announced his retirement last week.
12:40 - Rob Penney has been confirmed as the new Munster coach while we also look at the future position for Keith Earls.
24:00 - A robust debate on Ian Humphreys' imminent move to London Irish, quite a sudden departure!
29:30 - Leinster host Glasgow Warriors in one of the Pro12 semi-finals with the home side heavy favourites, even with the obvious distraction of the upcoming Heineken Cup final.
34:10 - An injury plagued Munster travel to a rejuvenated Ospreys side on Friday night in the first of the Pro12 semi-finals. We also look back on Munster's win over Ulster last weekend.
51:45 - We look ahead to the Aviva Premiership semi-finals: Leicester vs Saracens & Harlequins vs Northampton Saints.
59:15 - Daithí talks Top14.
1:05:50 - A piece of trivia from Daithí and Bet of the Week!

Talking Rugby is by the fans, for the fans. If you would like to advertise, sponsor or simply get involved with the show, drop us an email to TheWorldsTalking@gmail.com.

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Enjoy the show and be sure to comment below on what you think of the show, this one was a bit of a departure from previous episodes. Again, thanks to doc for doing a great job as a host.

Cheers,
The Talking Rugby Team

Davekoolhill

Great job lads, well done Doc!

Otacon

I've only listened to the first 20 minutes so far. Good listen again guys.

While I believe iHumph was probably being courted by LI before the semi, I do think the decision was made when the team was selected. Either way, good luck to him.

Gracelessly Tom

Lads, just want to say a big thanks to all involved, have only recently started to listen to the pod casts, mainly due to my complete lack of technological knowledge and downloading podcasts.

Brilliant show, love the discussions and well informed opinions given. You've made many of my away trips all the better thanks to listening to it on flights or stuck in airports!

Cheers!:D

William is great at fighting his way out of a corner! Y'all sounded like hysterical kids and he calmed it right down.

poor oul Niall...

RE:Henderson - Did someone say he's like Caldwell with a brain!? Both the insult and compliment are wrong most definitely! Caldwell has sorted himself out. He's going to get there, we're going to see him in an Ireland Jersey. Henderson should have been sent off for a swinging elbow in the U20s game. Guaranteed. He's a hothead (in a good way) who's going to need to learn to keep control of it, (much in the way that Caldwell has managed to since getting to Bath).

Gracelessly Tom

Quick question. Tried to download this weeks episode from iTunes but all it seems to do is play it live. Has the podcast changed to not allow downloading or is my technical savvy being shown up again?

thomond2006

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Quick question. Tried to download this weeks episode from iTunes but all it seems to do is play it live. Has the podcast changed to not allow downloading or is my technical savvy being shown up again?

iTunes is like that for other podcasts too.

What you should try is subscribing to the show from the show page on the iTunes Store and then downloading from your podcast section on iTunes.

Gracelessly Tom

thomond2006 wrote: »

iTunes is like that for other podcasts too.

What you should try is subscribing to the show from the show page on the iTunes Store and then downloading from your podcast section on iTunes.

Just tried that but no joy, can't find anywhere to subscribe. I think I'll crawl back into my cave and stick to smoke signals.......

thomond2006

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Just tried that but no joy, can't find anywhere to subscribe. I think I'll crawl back into my cave and stick to smoke signals.......

If you search for "Talking Rugby" in iTunes Store, the search will display a Talking Rugby Podcast icon. Click that and you'll get to the show page.

On the show page, there is definitely a subscribe button somewhere.

Let me know if you still can't get it working, I'll sort you out somehow!

Gracelessly Tom

thomond2006 wrote: »

If you search for "Talking Rugby" in iTunes Store, the search will display a Talking Rugby Podcast icon. Click that and you'll get to the show page.

On the show page, there is definitely a subscribe button somewhere.

Let me know if you still can't get it working, I'll sort you out somehow!

I can get into the show page but there's no subscribe button anywhere, scrolled up and down but nowt.

Weird, I've been able to download it in the past no problem, just the latest episode that would only play "live" for me. There now isn't even the option to download it, just the "clean" button.

thomond2006

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I can get into the show page but there's no subscribe button anywhere, scrolled up and down but nowt.

Weird, I've been able to download it in the past no problem, just the latest episode that would only play "live" for me. There now isn't even the option to download it, just the "clean" button.

hmm when I get home later I'll take a look and get back to you.

Incidentally is anyone else having a similar problem?

4PP

Deleted User wrote: »

William is great at fighting his way out of a corner! Y'all sounded like hysterical kids and he calmed it right down.

:P

Try getting a word in edgeways! :P:P:P:P impossible , but jaco sorted them out

thomond2006

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I can get into the show page but there's no subscribe button anywhere, scrolled up and down but nowt.

Weird, I've been able to download it in the past no problem, just the latest episode that would only play "live" for me. There now isn't even the option to download it, just the "clean" button.

Hope that helps Tom!

Gracelessly Tom

Cheers Thomond!

I now know the problem, I was downloading to my iphone and it doesn't have the subscribe option.

My lack of technological know how is embarrassing!

thomond2006

Good to hear you're sorted. Enoy the show!

irishbucsfan

Jesus a lot of unfair criticism for iHumph there based on very little evidence!

Macy0161

Enjoyed the show as always. Can I just ask though, are you going to revisit the Top 14/16 changes and the knock on proposals for the HEC, that was just briefly mentioned an episode or so back?

thomond2006

Macy0161 wrote: »

Enjoyed the show as always. Can I just ask though, are you going to revisit the Top 14/16 changes and the knock on proposals for the HEC, that was just briefly mentioned an episode or so back?

Hi Macy, thanks for listening to the show.

Yes we will mention the Top16 proposals etc in a future episode, it really depends on how a show pans out during the recording, if we have enough time left during an episode to cover it well. We want to put a lot of time into this discussion and would rather wait a while to do it properly rather than rush it.

thomond2006

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Jesus a lot of unfair criticism for iHumph there based on very little evidence!

Can see where you're coming from, however the timing of the annoucement of the transfer says a lot to me. I don't think myself or phat tried to pass off what we've said as the stone cold truth, it's just our opinion on how the transfer came about.

I obviously hope I'm wrong and that this transfer was in the can for months.

4PP

Macy0161 wrote: »

Enjoyed the show as always. Can I just ask though, are you going to revisit the Top 14/16 changes and the knock on proposals for the HEC, that was just briefly mentioned an episode or so back?

Thank you, glad you enjoyed it

re; T14/16/Euro Comps

As Tjomond2006 said above when/if time permits it will be discussed on the show. I don't think I'm being too forward in saying we would have liked to discuss it earlier but time is a factor on each podcast.

In the meantime I can tell you that this weekend the French press is overflowing with news/suggestions/rumours etc concerning that very subject. I'm not going to post any links as apparently thats not allowed in here but the info is out there, albeit in French.

No doubt within the coming days there'll be some articles in the english language press about same.

However do bear in mind that anything you read/hear is pure speculation.

There will be no changes to the format of the T14/ProD2 for next year. At best the T16 will "reappear" in the 2013/14 season, if at all (Blanco is against it but shush!, I can't say anymore ).

Any eventual changes to European competitions will have to be agreed by all parties before the 30/06/12. Once agreement is reached there is a delay of two years before they can be applied.

So at best/worst the Euro Cups as we know them will not change before the 2014/15 season. Its a very short time frame but don't forget the most important element that will guide all of the upcoming negociations............

Money/rights/sponsoringetc.............

it can move more mountains than "le Monstre a seize pattes de Clermont " ever could



Call me old fashioned but I do regret the fact that Rugby, the sport & its players & fans, are just a "by the way"

Thats life, or so I'm told, but I don't have to like it :cool:


Daithi

irishbucsfan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can see where you're coming from, however the timing of the annoucement of the transfer says a lot to me. I don't think myself or phat tried to pass off what we've said as the stone cold truth, it's just our opinion on how the transfer came about.

I obviously hope I'm wrong and that this transfer was in the can for months.

Ian Humphreys would be 3rd choice 10 next season behind Pienaar and Jackson. McKinney and Olding are both young players there right now with the potential to be far better than him.

Ian signed a contract as Ulsters starting out half. That still had time to run. If Ian hadn't moved Ulster would be spending HCup money on a B&I Cup player.

The issue Ulster faced was the fact they couldn't, despite Ian's relationship with their DoO, just cut his wages. They had to either convince him to accept less or convince someone to take him out of his contract.

This move suits Ulster. If it didn't they wouldn't have let it happen given they controlled the right to negotiate with Humphreys. Now they have freed up money which they will need very soon in order to tie down some of their young players as they increase the squad size.

DeDoc

William, it looks like you better keep your eye out for the prince of darkness

Quote from a Jonny Sexton article in todays Irish Times:

He name checks all his potential rivals on the road ahead, even noting that Miah Nikora will be Irish qualified soon and that Niall O’Connor is switching back from Connacht to Ulster this summer.

ray jay

thomond2006 wrote: »

Hi Macy, thanks for listening to the show.

Yes we will mention the Top16 proposals etc in a future episode, it really depends on how a show pans out during the recording, if we have enough time left during an episode to cover it well. We want to put a lot of time into this discussion and would rather wait a while to do it properly rather than rush it.

Considering next week's show will have all of two provincial matches to discuss and one to look forward to, I can't see how you wouldn't be able to find the time. Even if it is some time down the line, it's a very interesting topic and I'm sure a lot of listeners would like to hear about it.

4PP

ray jay wrote: »

Considering next week's show will have all of two provincial matches to discuss and one to look forward to, I can't see how you wouldn't be able to find the time. Even if it is some time down the line, it's a very interesting topic and I'm sure a lot of listeners would like to hear about it.

There may be a tad more to discuss than that but glad to hear the topic interests you...
Its Dave's show & I obviously can't speak for him but he has been very clear that it is something that will be discussed in depth before the end of the season. Next week? the week after? or whenever but Talking Rugby will be coming back to it.

Daithi.

4PP

DeDoc wrote: »

William, it looks like you better keep your eye out for the prince of darkness

Quote from a Jonny Sexton article in todays Irish Times:

:P:P:P:P:P

PhatPiggins

Tigers win by 9. Another BOTW home and hosed

thomond2006

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Tigers win by 9. Another BOTW home and hosed

That's 5 correct BOTWs in 7!

For everyone's information, since Talking Rugby has done an 'official' Bet of the Week slot back in episode 17 (aside from episodes 19 and 24), we have been correct in our predictions 61.9% of the time i.e. 13/21.

Doc would know more about the maths in terms of long term returns than I would, but I think we've been doing well so far. *touchwood*

durkadurka

61.9 doesn't sound great unless you were getting decent odds.

thomond2006

durkadurka wrote: »

61.9 doesn't sound great unless you were getting decent odds.

at least 10/11, 90% of the time our bets are on spreads

PhatPiggins

durkadurka wrote: »

61.9 doesn't sound great unless you were getting decent odds.

If you do a quick Google of professional tipping services you'll find its well above average.
55% over the course of a season is considered good. There are very few punters who can beat the bookies consistently over a 12 month period. If there were there wouldn't be so many bookies!!

You need to beat 55% if you're betting on rugby handicaps (10/11).

55% is break even (coin flipping) and anything above is profit.

Considering if you are winning at 61% means you have a ~12% ROI, that's a pretty quality investment if the stats hold out long term.

DeDoc

52.4% is actually the breakeven for 10/11 betting, which is the odds level for the overwhelming majority of the tips we've given.

DeDoc

DeDoc wrote: »

52.4% is actually the breakeven for 10/11 betting, which is the odds level for the overwhelming majority of the tips we've given.

I should probably know this.

I blame the fact that I'm still not sober though.

thomond2006

DeDoc wrote: »

52.4% is actually the breakeven for 10/11 betting, which is the odds level for the overwhelming majority of the tips we've given.

Could you explain why that is the case for people like me who don't know the maths behind gambling?

4PP

thomond2006 wrote: »

Could you explain why that is the case for people like me who don't know the maths behind gambling?

I'm surprised at you Alan, considering your chosen profession

Odds of 10/11 or 1.91 in decimal

100 bets, 1 unit per bet @ 1.91

52.4% of those bets win

1.91*52.4 = 100.084 ie: you break even


Anything above that is profit


Over the last few years I've aimed for the 60% in the T14 but struggle to get out of the 55% zone over a season .

Nevermind, its better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick


Btw, those results are publically/freely available, just not on this site :pac:

thomond2006

4PP wrote: »

I'm surprised at you Alan, considering your chosen profession

Odds of 10/11 or 1.91 in decimal

100 bets, 1 unit per bet @ 1.91

52.4% of those bets win

1.91*52.4 = 100.084 ie: you break even


Anything above that is profit


Over the last few years I've aimed for the 60% in the T14 but struggle to get out of the 55% zone over a season .

Nevermind, its better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick


Btw, those results are publically/freely available, just not on this site :pac:

ugh strangely I thought it was more complicated than that.

DeDoc

thomond2006 wrote: »

Could you explain why that is the case for people like me who don't know the maths behind gambling?

It is even simpler if you think of it as follows

You want to know what percentage of winners you need - i.e. the fraction of winners over total bets

Well a winner returns 21 units, while every bet is 11 units

so the percentage required is 11/21=52.4%

4PP

thomond2006 wrote: »

ugh strangely I thought it was more complicated than that.

Gambling (sucessfully) is surprisingly easy, as long as you are cautious (& I do mean very cautious) & know your market.

Take the case of someone who follows the Rabo, you know the teams, you know the 'refs, you can pretty much work out which games a team will/will not target.
So you take all that info, stay well away from mug markets like tryscorer, ht/ft, doubles,trebles, 1-10s etc etc & take a 10/11 single covered by a 4/9 alt cap.

True you won't be Rockerfella overnight but as Phats/Reds says, not losing is as good as a win.

Despite what you may read here & there no-one has constantly out booked the bookies. 55% is doable, 60 is the holy grail, above & beyond is dumb luck or lies..........& unsustainable.


Btw I'm saying this as a guy whose first ever internet bet was a tenner e/w on Harry to win the Open @ 33/1 & no I had'nt a clue what I was doing

Paid my expenses for the brothers stag night mind :pac:

Whatever you do set yourself a limit. Never go beyond that & never bet a penny that could have an adverse effect on your life/household/family.
Don't ever chase losses, suck it up & move on.

You lost this week? it happens.

You have 50 quid in your a/c? don't bet more than half. If all goes tits up you can at least come back next week.

You have a sure fire 200% garaunteed tip that will come in no matter what? Take a deep breath & bet half of the stake you intended, true you may curse later but what would have been your reaction if it had lost (Edi- Toulouse springs to mind, no one saw that coming!)

Lord above I sound like a preacher. I like gambling but I don't like people fecking themselves up because of it, too many innocent victims.

Enjoy the spice of the bet, just don't get stung.

Amen

danthefan

I'm tempted to stick €100 in a paddypower account and just follow this place more or less and see where it goes. I'd only bet on rugby really. The last bet I made was on Leinster to win the HEC last season, it was after they'd secured a home QF and potential home SF and I thought they were still really long odds so stuck €50 on them, it turned out well

Am fairly proud of myself that I put it all right back in the bank account.

4PP

danthefan wrote: »

I'm tempted to stick €100 in a paddypower account and just follow this place more or less and see where it goes. I'd only bet on rugby really. The last bet I made was on Leinster to win the HEC last season, it was after they'd secured a home QF and potential home SF and I thought they were still really long odds so stuck €50 on them, it turned out well

Am fairly proud of myself that I put it all right back in the bank account.

Now you are an intelligent guy

That said, you have the knowledge, you have the discipline, take 25% of your winnings, bet intelligently & you may make a few squids between now & next Christmas. In anycase I will "interwebwise" heartily pat you on the back for your foresight in skimming that money asap.
Bravo Mossieur!

PhatPiggins

4PP wrote: »

Gambling (sucessfully) is surprisingly easy, as long as you are cautious (& I do mean very cautious) & know your market.

Take the case of someone who follows the Rabo, you know the teams, you know the 'refs, you can pretty much work out which games a team will/will not target.
So you take all that info, stay well away from mug markets like tryscorer, ht/ft, doubles,trebles, 1-10s etc etc & take a 10/11 single covered by a 4/9 alt cap.

True you won't be Rockerfella overnight but as Phats/Reds says, not losing is as good as a win.

Despite what you may read here & there no-one has constantly out booked the bookies. 55% is doable, 60 is the holy grail, above & beyond is dumb luck or lies..........& unsustainable.


Btw I'm saying this as a guy whose first ever internet bet was a tenner e/w on Harry to win the Open @ 33/1 & no I had'nt a clue what I was doing

Paid my expenses for the brothers stag night mind :pac:

Whatever you do set yourself a limit. Never go beyond that & never bet a penny that could have an adverse effect on your life/household/family.
Don't ever chase losses, suck it up & move on.

You lost this week? it happens.

You have 50 quid in your a/c? don't bet more than half. If all goes tits up you can at least come back next week.

You have a sure fire 200% garaunteed tip that will come in no matter what? Take a deep breath & bet half of the stake you intended, true you may curse later but what would have been your reaction if it had lost (Edi- Toulouse springs to mind, no one saw that coming!)

Lord above I sound like a preacher. I like gambling but I don't like people fecking themselves up because of it, too many innocent victims.

Enjoy the spice of the bet, just don't get stung.

Amen

I could have used this advice 5 years ago :pac:

4PP

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I could have used this advice 5 years ago :pac:

G'wan outa dat ye smart arse, you're not happy unless ye have something to complain about! :cool:

durkadurka

I'm an infrequent gambler but I'm pretty good at the rabo.

I'm leading the sportguru league and am 7th in the world at it. I'm no better than average in any other comPetition. I totally appreciate that the numbers have dropped off towards the end for various reasons so it's not miracles I'm doing.

Anyway I've correctly predicted 75 per cent of games and got within five of the winning margin in about 40 per cent of games. Now the 75% is not handicap and I know that two or three games every week in the rabo are no brainers, but is there enough consistency there to start backing predictions with money?

GerM

durkadurka wrote: »

Anyway I've correctly predicted 75 per cent of games and got within five of the winning margin in about 40 per cent of games. Now the 75% is not handicap and I know that two or three games every week in the rabo are no brainers, but is there enough consistency there to start backing predictions with money?

I think so. I gamble regularly in the Pro12 in a similar fashion. What 4PP says above though should be made the opening post of the gambling thread though. Never get greedy, that's what kills bets. I don't even use handicap bets too much any longer and, if I do, I use adjusted handicaps to make it safer. People see something like a 4/11 bet and think that the profit it will generate is measly and they might be right but it's profit. If that's the only game you feel absolutely sure of then only bet on it and don't try something foolish like doubling it up on something that you're only 70% confident on. You'll never win big in the long run. I've done well on certain weekends but I might lose for the next 2 or 3 weekends with a surprise result or two. Overall, any profit is doing well. Just play it tight and cautious and you should turn a small profit as well as make some really mundane games a lot more interesting!

durkadurka

Might try it in some structured way next season.

I'm pretty conservative by nature but lately I've been looking at the paddy power spread and been shocked at times. Eg Leinster Glasgow yesterday. They were -13 and I was amazed by that.

4PP

durkadurka wrote: »

Might try it in some structured way next season.

I'm pretty conservative by nature but lately I've been looking at the paddy power spread and been shocked at times. Eg Leinster Glasgow yesterday. They were -13 and I was amazed by that.

If you do stay away from the opening matches, I rarely bet on anything in the first two or three rounds so I can get an idea of how teams are performing.

"Paper" betting is another way to test the water.

Podge_irl

durkadurka wrote: »

Might try it in some structured way next season.

I'm pretty conservative by nature but lately I've been looking at the paddy power spread and been shocked at times. Eg Leinster Glasgow yesterday. They were -13 and I was amazed by that.

Yet all the same, Leinster would have beaten that handy enough without the two late Glasgow tries. if Conway's try hadn't been disallowed I think they almost certainly would have beaten it as well.

PhatPiggins

durkadurka wrote: »

I'm an infrequent gambler but I'm pretty good at the rabo.

I'm leading the sportguru league and am 7th in the world at it. I'm no better than average in any other comPetition. I totally appreciate that the numbers have dropped off towards the end for various reasons so it's not miracles I'm doing.

Anyway I've correctly predicted 75 per cent of games and got within five of the winning margin in about 40 per cent of games. Now the 75% is not handicap and I know that two or three games every week in the rabo are no brainers, but is there enough consistency there to start backing predictions with money?

Are you able to check the prices of the winners you picked over the course of the season?

Add them up and subtract the 25% of losers see how close you are to that magic 52.4% number (at a gues I'd say below it). I guarantee you you'll be surprised one way or another.

Sounds like you have the tools to take on the handicaps though.

DeDoc

The 52.4% figure is only relevant for 10/11 betting. A typical handicap is of the order of 7 points, which translates to odds of around 1.3 usually

you'd need 77% correct to break even at that sort of price

durkadurka

Fascinating stuff guys. I was thinking that since many rabo games are very predictable that 75% was only 'decent' and not spectacular.