SBP (29/4/12) RedC Poll

Sierra Oscar

The figures for the RedC poll in tomorrows Sunday Business Post are listed below. The poll covered the state of the parties alongside support for the fiscal compact treaty.

FG 32% (-2)
SF 19% (+1)
FF 17% (+1)
Lab 14% (-1)
Ind 18% ( +1)

Not much major movement amongst party support, apart from the obvious fact that both government parties are down. Both FF & SF will be happy with this poll - although I suspect FF more so than SF, considering the fact that the party is now apparently growing its support in a very short timeframe following the publication of Mahon.

The referendum support is as follows:

Yes 47% (-2%)
No 35% (+2%)
Undecided 18%

Slight negative trend emerging for the government, but I would imagine it will still be passed comfortably.

The Waltzing Consumer

It is just bizarre how FF support goes up

I just don't understand it.

BOHtox

I'm shocked that support for SF is so high. I've yet to hear one of their policies that make the smallest amount of economic sense. Send the IMF home, reverse budget cuts, no to the stability fund. No explanation as to how they'll fund the defecit or their stimulus package etc

nuac

SF and FF will be happy with this poll

Labour dropping, as also FG, except Labour can least afford the loss

? some FG going to FF ( or returning to them )
? some Labour going to SF

Dirk Gently

The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »

It is just bizarre how FF support goes up

I just don't understand it.

not really, there is no alternative in our political system. FF is hovering about the mid teens because their supports see no alternative in the ula or sf. I'd imagine thats were labours support is going though. It's ff or fg+ lab. All parties pretty much the same, like to concentrate power and favour spin over substance while allowing civil servants / external experts to run the country. It's always been this way, with labour willing to back either of fg/ff. FF will be back in gov within 2 GE's, maybe even one if lab/ff/sf numbers add up. It's a pity the likes of the greens sold out and commit political suicide as they were at least a reforming party before they got in over their heads with FF. They might have become a bit of a force today had they not stupidly gone in with FF in 2007. All that's left is populism in opposition and "our hands are tied" in government.

We have to break the 2 and a half party system, do away with the whip system and start electing decent calibre independents of the likes of stephen donnolly and shane ross. TD's are irrelevant while the whip is in place. FF could do the country a huge favour by disbanding otherwise we'll continue to just re-arrange the deck chairs every 5 years.

Long story short, we need new players and a new system.

nuac

Dirk

Donnelly seems to have potential - but Shane Ross in Government - dont think so

Sierra Oscar

BOHtox wrote: »

I'm shocked that support for SF is so high. I've yet to hear one of their policies that make the smallest amount of economic sense. Send the IMF home, reverse budget cuts, no to the stability fund. No explanation as to how they'll fund the defecit or their stimulus package etc

Indeed - a stint in government would decimate SF, although I fear that it would also decimate Ireland as a whole.

Sully

Very minor adjustments for all the results, so within the margin of error I would suspect? Seems that support / drop in support has steadied itself and the treaty hasn't changed many opinions depending on the side of the fence your on.

Dubhlinner

Bohtox wrote:

I'm shocked that support for SF is so high. I've yet to hear one of their policies that make the smallest amount of economic sense. Send the IMF home, reverse budget cuts, no to the stability fund. No explanation as to how they'll fund the defecit or their stimulus package etc

They're the only centre left party in opposition and they're opposed to cuts. They're opposed to the bailouts and sort of opposed to the EU, which isn't too popular at present.

These polls are carried out on a cross sectional sample of society which doesn't take into account how informed someone is politically.

If it weren't for the IRA connection they'd be even higher in the polls.

raymon

Bad news in general , that FF is +1 .

Also that SF is up +1 is very bad news.

Eamonn o Cuiv said during the week that his preference would be SF as a coalition partner.
I wonder if this is the party view.

femur61

BOHtox wrote: »

I'm shocked that support for SF is so high. I've yet to hear one of their policies that make the smallest amount of economic sense.

I've yet to meet one person who supports SF.

patrickn

I am not a big fan of S.F. or their economic policies however I have to laugh when I hear supporters of other parties having a go. FF an their policies drove the country over a cliff and the present Goverment 's only policy seems to be to follow the last one and sure something is bound to turn up.

gizmo555

The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »

It is just bizarre how FF support goes up

nuac wrote: »

Labour dropping, as also FG, except Labour can less afford the loss

raymon wrote: »

Bad news in general , that FF is +1 .

Also that SF is up +1 is very bad news.

All the variances since the last poll are well within the margin of error of three percentage points. The changes in this poll mean nothing.

bijapos

BOHtox wrote: »

I'm shocked that support for SF is so high. I've yet to hear one of their policies that make the smallest amount of economic sense. Send the IMF home, reverse budget cuts, no to the stability fund. No explanation as to how they'll fund the defecit or their stimulus package etc

They oppose everything, just like FG and Labour in opposition, when they got into power they changed their stance.

What I find unusual about SF support is that the cutbacks SF claim they are opposed to are essentially the cutbacks they are implementing in Northern Ireland.

Hannibal

bijapos wrote: »

They oppose everything, just like FG and Labour in opposition, when they got into power they changed their stance.

What I find unusual about SF support is that the cutbacks SF claim they are opposed to are essentially the cutbacks they are implementing in Northern Ireland.

Why do people (Eamon Gilmore included) comment on how they think the Stormont executive works when it's quite obvious they don't have the slightest clue.

dsmythy

So despite the 'savage' cuts to the 'vulnerable' and the backlash against 'austerity' FG are easily the biggest party in the country. Fair play to them.

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

Eamonn o Cuiv said during the week that his preference would be SF as a coalition partner.
I wonder if this is the party view.

Don't mind O'Cuiv - the eejit is just trying to make headlines for himself.

nuac

While changes in this RED C poll are minor, and within the margn of error, the fact is that FG and Labour are polling below their GE 2011 levels, SF substantiallly above and FF about the same.

How does one account for the increase in SF vote?
some coming from Labour? perhaps.
unlikely that they are coming from FG

Many FF voted FG in 2011. Instead of returning to FF are they heading to SF

All very interesting

Labour need to take some action. Joan a better option than Eamonn?

Sierra Oscar

nuac wrote: »

While changes in this RED C poll are minor, and within the margn of error, the fact is that FG and Labour are polling below their GE 2011 levels, SF substantiallly above and FF about the same.

How does one account for the increase in SF vote?
some coming from Labour? perhaps.
unlikely that they are coming from FG

Many FF voted FG in 2011. Instead of returning to FF are they heading to SF

All very interesting

Labour need to take some action. Joan a better option than Eamonn?

It is the Labour voters that are seemingly heading towards SF according to RedC - with the majority of the voters that deserted FF to FG still remaining within FG.

I still believe that in the long run SF will replace Labour in the political system, not FF, and will emerge as the 'true' left party in Ireland - albeit by that stage SF will have moved more towards the centre.

sarumite

nuac wrote: »

While changes in this RED C poll are minor, and within the margn of error, the fact is that FG and Labour are polling below their GE 2011 levels, SF substantiallly above and FF about the same.

The GE2011 levels are those based on actual votes. Not everyone who polled will go and vote. It is one thing to say to a pollster "I support SF", however it is another to show that support on election day by voting. Although I do suspect that SF will pick up more of the people who may not have voted in the past but with austerity biting in will become more politically active.

Lawrence1895

dsmythy wrote: »

So despite the 'savage' cuts to the 'vulnerable' and the backlash against 'austerity' FG are easily the biggest party in the country. Fair play to them.

Maybe, those 32% didn't realize yet, what's going on? Maybe, they still keep on raging about FF, being too busy looking into FG's and Labour's failure to keep pre-election promises?

dsmythy

Lars1916 wrote: »

Maybe, those 32% didn't realize yet, what's going on? Maybe, they still keep on raging about FF, being too busy looking into FG's and Labour's failure to keep pre-election promises?

Maybe.....

In the current economic climate and with what the current government think must be done to correct it, it would be a shocking failure on the part of all opposition if Fine Gael and Labour are not hard hit in the build up to election if the economy shrank further. Since the economy is currently not sliding downwards we can forgive the opposition their meagre returns.

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

Bad news in general , that FF is +1 .

Also that SF is up +1 is very bad news.

Eamonn o Cuiv said during the week that his preference would be SF as a coalition partner.
I wonder if this is the party view.

It isn't . . and was so confirmed by the party leader (linky)

Looks like the slide you had talked about is over . . that or FF really have not moved since this time last year and we really should not be getting worked up about statistically insignificant movements in opinion polls !

From a FF perspective, all I take from this poll is that the Mahon damage was done to FF long before the publication of its report, and they now have a clear and substantial base on which to build.