The future of Europe

beeftotheheels

So what have we learned today.

Well the right in the Netherlands don't like austerity.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17803042

While over in France almost 20% of voters voted for Le Pen in the first round.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17806398

Lord only knows what will happen when the Greeks head to the polls.

So here's the question. Can any one remember a time when the national electorates were so hostile to the EU? Can the EU survive in its current form, or has the European project been too successful? Has a half century of peace in Europe made us all complacent. Have we forgotten what the EU set out to address?

southsiderosie

Is this really about hostility to the EU though? Or just a general sense of unhappiness with an increasingly globalized world - a gripe that has existed among the European populist right for decades now. It is not surprising to me at all that the populist right is on an upswing, given the state of both the global economy and the euro crisis.

beeftotheheels

southsiderosie wrote: »

Is this really about hostility to the EU though? Or just a general sense of unhappiness with an increasingly globalized world - a gripe that has existed among the European populist right for decades now. It is not surprising to me at all that the populist right is on an upswing, given the state of both the global economy and the euro crisis.

I don't know. The rise in nationalism nationalist rhetoric is worrying. The economic crisis is leading to us complaining that we're bailing out German banks, while the Germans think they're subsidizing our lavish lifestyles.

Every one complains about the lack of democratic accountability in the EU, but looking at the national electorates of Europe I'm kind of glad of it at the moment.

On the bright[er] side the far left is apparently expected to benefit from the Dutch elections.

Dubhlinner

beeftotheheels wrote: »

On the bright[er] side the far left is apparently expected to benefit from the Dutch elections.

Well... centre left more like. There's no way the dutch are gonna elect communists

mike65

So the far left is good and nationalism is bad? You can be both you know. Nationalism is not the preserve of the far right.

Ellis Dee

southsiderosie wrote: »

Is this really about hostility to the EU though? Or just a general sense of unhappiness with an increasingly globalized world - a gripe that has existed among the European populist right for decades now. It is not surprising to me at all that the populist right is on an upswing, given the state of both the global economy and the euro crisis.

Good points. However, I'm happy to report that the latest opinion polls - with municipal elections due this autumn - indicate that support for the populist, xenophobic, homophobic, eurosceptic, rabidly Islamophobic, anti-multicultural and anti-Swedish-language Perussuomalaiset ("True Finns") party, which gained nearly 20% of the vote in the parliamentary elections a year ago and is now the biggest opposition party in our parliament, has been falling rapidly.:)

So much so that its leader Timo Soini, who studied in Maynooth, is the only Catholic ever elected to the Eduskunta and has made it clear that he opposes abortion even for pregnant rape victims, has now started snarling at the media and blaming them and their coverage of his party's actions, policies and shenanigans for its disappointing showing in the polls.:rolleyes:

The eternal optimist, I still believe enough Europeans will see the light and turn away from the nasty forces of the right and understand that only through cooperation and mutual tolerance, in addition to recognising and adapting to the realities of our globalised world, will we ever be able to make Europe the place that it has the potential to be.:D

It could also be that the old cliché about every cloud having a silver lining has some truth to it, and the horrible crimes that Anders Behring Breivik committed in our neighbouring country Norway will do at least some good if they open people's eyes to the reality of what those right-wing forces represent and mean.:eek:

southsiderosie

Ellis Dee wrote: »

Good points. However, I'm happy to report that the latest opinion polls - with municipal elections due this autumn - indicate that support for the populist, xenophobic, homophobic, eurosceptic, rabidly Islamophobic, anti-multicultural and anti-Swedish-language Perussuomalaiset ("True Finns") party, which gained nearly 20% of the vote in the parliamentary elections a year ago and is now the biggest opposition party in our parliament, has been falling rapidly.:)

So much so that its leader Timo Soini, who studied in Maynooth, is the only Catholic ever elected to the Eduskunta and has made it clear that he opposes abortion even for pregnant rape victims, has now started snarling at the media and blaming them and their coverage of his party's actions, policies and shenanigans for its disappointing showing in the polls.:rolleyes:

The eternal optimist, I still believe enough Europeans will see the light and turn away from the nasty forces of the right and understand that only through cooperation and mutual tolerance, in addition to recognising and adapting to the realities of our globalised world, will we ever be able to make Europe the place that it has the potential to be.:D

It could also be that the old cliché about every cloud having a silver lining has some truth to it, and the horrible crimes that Anders Behring Breivik committed in our neighbouring country Norway will do at least some good if they open people's eyes to the reality of what those right-wing forces represent and mean.:eek:

Perhaps I am just more of a pessimist. Rather than seeing the last several decades of cooperation as some kind of 'Golden Era' that will continue indefinitely, I see it as more of a historical aberration. Most of Europe has not historically been particularly tolerant - not of its neighbors, and especially not of ethnic minorities.

As for the future of the European Union, or perhaps more accurately the euro zone, it is hard to see how monetary union can go on indefinitely without fiscal union, but it is very hard to see how that is possible, both politically and economically. Countries like Spain should have long-ago devalued in order to restore some semblance of competitiveness; for that matter, interest rates should have been much higher in the 00s to cool down the PIGS' economies. The same countries that broke the fiscal stability pact during this time are now insisting that the PIGS get their acts together. Not every country can be Germany, nor wants to be. So while the EU as a trade group may make sense, the EU as a coherent economic bloc raises serious concerns, and these concerns are quite easy for the far right - and increasingly the left, as we see with Sinn Fein - to capitalize on. Unless the European center can make a clear and coherent case for the benefit of the EU, and in particular monetary union, to their citizens, it is hard to see how this experiment in supranational governance can continue to function - much less expand.

Finally, it does not help that the current crop of political leadership across most of the Continent is sorely lacking, both in vision and popular legitimacy. I think this is a dangerous moment for Europe - France is looking backwards, Germany is looking inwards, the peripheral countries are looking for help, and I would guess that, increasingly, everyone else is just going to start looking out for Numero Uno - the Netherlands being a case in point.

Toby Take a Bow

mike65 wrote: »

So the far left is good and nationalism is bad? You can be both you know. Nationalism is not the preserve of the far right.

If the left are espousing nationalist ideals, then they're not really doing left properly.

southsiderosie

Toby Take a Bow wrote: »

If the left are espousing nationalist ideals, then they're not really doing left properly.

I think Sinn Fein fits the bill as an economically left-wing nationalist party.

ambid

southsiderosie wrote: »

Is this really about hostility to the EU though? Or just a general sense of unhappiness with an increasingly globalized world...

I'd love to see this properly tested through research. The democratic defecit in Europe is a long term problem, now the bureaucrats are replacing democratically elected governments, and the weak periphery is bailing out the powerful core.

This can't continue. History teaches us that this degree of hostility can't stand so either the leaders will find a solution or they will have a solution imposed on them by the people.

beeftotheheels

ambid wrote: »

I'd love to see this properly tested through research. The democratic defecit in Europe is a long term problem, now the bureaucrats are replacing democratically elected governments, and the weak periphery is bailing out the powerful core.

This can't continue. History teaches us that this degree of hostility can't stand so either the leaders will find a solution or they will have a solution imposed on them by the people.

But the democratically elected Governments are a large part of the problem. National politics led to the Deauville declaration which led to us requiring a bailout, the Council i.e. the elected representatives, devised the Fiscal Compact, not the Eurocrats at the Commission who thought that working within the existing rules was sufficient with the six pack.

I think the Eurocrats are being blamed, when the issue is not with them, but with the elected representatives, with Merkel and Sarkozy.

Dannyboy83

Ellis Dee wrote: »

It could also be that the old cliché about every cloud having a silver lining has some truth to it, and the horrible crimes that Anders Behring Breivik committed in our neighbouring country Norway will do at least some good if they open people's eyes to the reality of what those right-wing forces represent and mean.:eek:

Anders Behring Breivik took a sabbatical year on his urgent quest to defend Norway - in order to play Warcraft for 16 hours per day, for a full year.

I think people regard him as little more than a lunatic.
The only people who would identify it as symptomatic of the right, would be of the left anyway.

On the other hand, cases such as the rape and murder of Elin Krantz generally do seem to exert influence on people, right or left.

Toby Take a Bow

southsiderosie wrote: »

I think Sinn Fein fits the bill as an economically left-wing nationalist party.

Economically left down here, not so much in NI. I would view the 'left' parts of their thinking as more populist (as in I'd be surprised if they stuck with them if they actually took power), and so easy to fit with their nationalist tendencies (although I'm sure they wouldn't view them as nationalist, of course).

Predalien

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Can the EU survive in its current form, or has the European project been too successful?

I don't believe so, European integration has been a remarkable success but the people in general need to see an end point, a limit to the powers of the EU, every treaty brings more power to the institutions when many people couldn't even tell you what these institutions are. There has to be a point where we say stop and I think that point is very near, I just don't think many European leaders recognise or acknowledge that.

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Has a half century of peace in Europe made us all complacent. Have we forgotten what the EU set out to address?

I wouldn't say complacent, the EU has addressed what the original aims were. The single market is successful and the fundamental freedoms are well protected. There are too many cultural and economic differences for further integration, originally the level of integration we see now was never the aim of the EU, we've gone well beyond that.

beeftotheheels

Predalien wrote: »

I wouldn't say complacent, the EU has addressed what the original aims were. The single market is successful and the fundamental freedoms are well protected. There are too many cultural and economic differences for further integration, originally the level of integration we see now was never the aim of the EU, we've gone well beyond that.

But the issue here for me is that we have reached a place where the EU has to integrate more, or risk splitting asunder. I don't see threading water where we are now as being an option.

Dannyboy83

A third major trade union has come out against the European fiscal compact and will urge its 40,000 members to vote No in the referendum.


Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/another-union-calls-for-no-vote-in-referendum-548665.html#ixzz1ssF9BT6p

This is not good news.

Boulevardier

It mightn't be good news for the govt or the European political class, but that does not make it bad news overall.

beeftotheheels

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

This is not good news.

To be fair, I suspect that political developments in Europe could give us some cover. We're now having to vote on a treaty that it is not clear will be accepted elsewhere. That uncertainty means that we may be able to spin it as not being about us rejecting austerity, but more about uncertainty.

Scofflaw

beeftotheheels wrote:

But the democratically elected Governments are a large part of the problem. National politics led to the Deauville declaration which led to us requiring a bailout, the Council i.e. the elected representatives, devised the Fiscal Compact, not the Eurocrats at the Commission who thought that working within the existing rules was sufficient with the six pack.

I think the Eurocrats are being blamed, when the issue is not with them, but with the elected representatives, with Merkel and Sarkozy.

In fact, the "eurocrats" have been almost entirely sidelined during the crisis, with the exception of the ECB. But, alas, as usual, anything that happens in Europe is ascribed carelessly to "the EU" and its "eurocrats" even though it represents a resurgence of multilateralism and dominance of the stage by (entirely inadequate) national politicians.

What we're seeing might actually be an end to Tony Blair's famous "third way", which turned out to be a form of right-lite based on an apparently inexhaustible credit - two decades in which nobody had to make any real political choices because it seemed that both public services and business success could be delivered without any pain to the taxpayer. Trade unions and banks could somehow both flourish in a brief and unsustainable credit-fuelled utopia.

You could say that you're seeing, in the rise of both the left and the non-lite right, the return of the electorate to the realisation that you can't actually have your pie and eat it, and that politics is therefore about choosing which one you really want.

In that sense, it's a good thing, because the "third way" politicians - populist pygmies like Blair, Sarkozy, Berlusconi, and perhaps also Merkel - were frankly pants. Safe in the knowledge that most people really vote with their wallets, and knowing they were delivering to that vital electoral organ, they could happily ignore the protests of the electorate and get back to the fun part of politics - settling gently into oligarchy, meddling in the rest of the world and throwing shapes on the global stage, knowing they'd be re-elected as long as the money taps kept running.

Now the money taps have run dry, and even worse, it turns out we have to pay back a good chunk of what came out of them, the electorates of Europe might start caring again what happens. And even if some of what they feel turns out to be eurosceptical, that's no bad thing either. The EU, in the careless hands of "third way" politicians and complaisant electorates, was becoming something flabby and devoid of vision. Maybe it'll be deconstructed entirely, maybe it'll get reformed, maybe it'll be trimmed back, maybe it'll be expanded, who knows? As long as it's forced into becoming something shaped by what Europeans actually want, it doesn't really matter too much what the shape is.

It's always possible the continent might really start the long slide back towards muscular nationalism, with all that that eventually implies, but I doubt it, because the kind of problems European states tend to have are increasingly borderless ones, and not just borderless within Europe, but globally. We are seeing what was once called a "closure of the oicumene" - that is, a joining up of all the economically active centres into one network - and states that choose to opt out of that network need to have a compelling reason to do so, and requires a compelling advantage to make the world willing to come specifically to its door rather than letting it slide into a new North Korea.

But then, I'm an optimist.

cordially,
Scofflaw

RichieC

The Bankers and investors will abandon us to the dogs if we vote down their power grabbing legislation and we'll be left in squaller. In the long term this might actually be a good thing. In the short it will be a major disaster.