Sunday 22nd April

rossom

3.10 Wincanton

Natural Spring 15/2

Suzy Smith's 7 year old may be absolutely thrown in off her open handicap mark of 107 and I think the handicapper could easily have been very lenient considering some of the form she has to her name. Although still a maiden, she has put up some very decent performances to date in her 8 starts to date with her career starting back in 2009. Notably, she finished beaten by 5.5L in a bumper back in 2010 with the two in front of her now rated 133 and 126 over hurdles and in a Jumpers Bumper on the fibresand in December that same year as she finished a head behind The Hollinwell, who is a very talented chaser on his day. Moreover, she also beat Cloudy Spirit who is a 132 rated hurdler by 2.75L that day off level weights so she certainly is a talented mare.

Her 2nd last start came in January 2011 in a 2m3f novices hurdle event where she finished a respectable 16L beaten 4th, with the front 3 drawing 14L clear. That day she jumped really sloppy and also ballooned a number of the flights. That said, she stuck to her task well and shaped as if she would be suited by a step up in trip. The 3 in front are decent animals rated 119, 135 (chasing) and 129 so in an event off level weights it certainly wasn't a bad performance. I'm presuming as a result of injury, Natural Spring was absent from the track for 14 months before making her reappearance last month in a Novices hurdle where she ran a really eye catching race. Although a slowly run contest, Natural Spring travelled extremely well into the race and he jumping was significantly better than before as in the end she was only beaten by 3L in the 2m5f contest. However, the winning distance by the odds on jolly was a bit kind on her as Captain Sunshine wasn't asked for an effort until the final flight when he quickened under the persuasion of the whip to score going away.

Considering her handicap mark is only 107, the form of that race in this context looks very strong. The winner won on his only subsequent start in a Class 2 novices hurdle and has an official rating of 132 whilst the 2nd Hindon Road finished a length beaten 2nd by a useful Nicholls prospect who has an official handicap mark of 130. Moreover, prior to this Hindon Road finished 1.25L behind the excellent pair of Its A Gimme and Baby Shine off level weights and he certainly is a good yard stick. On the basis of her last effort, I don't think Natural Spring needs to improve much at all to win tomorrow's contest but she should definitely strip fitter for that run. She is stepped into handicap company for the first time tomorrow and I would be very surprised if she didn't prove good enough to win off her current mark at some stage in her career. Natural Spring represents Suzy Smith's only runner at Wincanton tomorrow, and although not in blistering form Smith had a winner earlier in the month so her horses certainly aren't in the wilderness. Denis O'Regan takes the ride and with the extra furlong looking sure to help as well as taking on easier opposition, if she's able to navigate this large field I am very confident of her running a massive race.

I'll also be playing the RFC with Bathwick Man as he could easily be a plot. David Pipe's stable is sponsored by Bathwick Tyres who also sponsor this race. Given the horses name, I'm fairly sure they have some connection to him also and it looks like he could have been aimed at this race with what looks a decent handicap mark.

hucklebuck

Did anyone notice that John Oxx's horses in the 520 in Curragh that were 25/1 have been cut to 16/1, 16/1 and 14/1.

I don't remember seeing this before, it's like the bookies heard he has a good horse but havent found out which one.

Slattsy

hucklebuck wrote: »

Did anyone notice that John Oxx's horses in the 520 in Curragh that were 25/1 have been cut to 16/1, 16/1 and 14/1.

I don't remember seeing this before, it's like the bookies heard he has a good horse but havent found out which one.

Apparently the horse Wayne Lordon is on, Urban somethingorother, has been going great but Murtagh is on one that there hasn't been much talk of to date, so maybe that's why the bookies are wary.

No bet race for me anyway unless there is big support for one.

hucklebuck

Slattsy wrote: »

Apparently the horse Wayne Lordon is on, Urban somethingorother, has been going great but Murtagh is on one that there hasn't been much talk of to date, so maybe that's why the bookies are wary.

No bet race for me anyway unless there is big support for one.

Cheers, I just looked again and they left Urban Ball at 16/1 and put Aklan back to 25/1.

Marchese Marconi is running in that, he is the horse Urban saw in Ballydoyle.

Alpish

Natural Spring drifiting out to 6's now