Qipco 2,000 Guineas (5th May 2012)

Nulty

Camelot is favourite and bidding to out perform St Nicholas Abbeys performance in this after winning the Racing Post Trophy in similar style. He's short enough and I think he's better suited to the Derby anyway.

Most Improved is fascinating if only due to the amount of hot air coming from the stable. From spectator perspective its exciting to see whether all the hype of the top two holds up in the race.

Top Offer is one I don't know much about so will have to do some research along with plenty of the rest of them.

Now, to the horse I really want to talk about! Born To Sea is arguably the MOST interesting and exciting horse in the race. Half brother to Sea The Stars and trained by the gentleman that is Mr. Oxx. Oxx has reported that he will go straight to the race.

tryfix

Most Improved is out of today's craven and probably the Guineas. I like French Fifteen and Power. Born To Sea is a good price and almost certain to take part in the race.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/newmarket-guineas-guineas-gamble-most-improved-misses-craven/1017859/top/

MoscowFlyer

Trumpet Major :eek:

Impressive that.

Colonel Sanders

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Trumpet Major :eek:

Impressive that.

Franks Parish Hall's Dewhurst form

Imhof Tank

Nick Mordin gave a strong write up for the Dejebel winner French Fifteen - bought by the Quipco boss. I will be on that.

Slattsy

After St Nick ran down the field in the 2000 a few years ago, O'Brien said in hindsight he shouldn't have run him.
Camelot is almost a carbon copy (breeding wise and Racingpost winner) and during the winter I thought there'd be no chance they'd run him but it now looks as if he's a certain runner. If the ground was soft I can see why they'd be tempted but its always quick so I expect him to be run off his feet just like St Nick was.
I personally hope they don't run him as it could ruin his 3 year old career.

My main fancies are Born to Sea and Power.

UrbanSea

I wouldn't say he was a certain runner, his plan was straight to the Guineas, then a few weeks ago they came out and said he wasn't definitely running, haven't heard anything else since.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

I wouldn't say he was a certain runner, his plan was straight to the Guineas, then a few weeks ago they came out and said he wasn't definitely running, haven't heard anything else since.

Was backed into 6/4 yesterday in places.

UrbanSea

Hadn't realised that

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Hadn't realised that

I forgive thee.

dekop

camelot is a banker

hucklebuck

Born to Sea is in to 8/1 now.

Have the 33/1 double in the locker, hope he wins this

tryfix

dekop wrote: »

camelot is a banker

I'd love to see him win, but the racing post trophy is possibly the worst trial race for the Guineas imaginable. Often won with a stunning performance that screams class. It's not guineas winning form, many derby winners have come out of it but no English 2,000 guineas winner has won it, at least not in modern times anyway.

Slattsy

Camelot into evs with Ladbrokes :eek: who's close links to Ballydoyle are very well known..
Still wont touch it even if he is working the house down.

Will be on Power myself.

kfallon

Slattsy wrote: »

Camelot into evs with Ladbrokes :eek: who's close links to Ballydoyle are very well known..
Still wont touch it even if he is working the house down.

Will be on Power myself.

I actually think Chronicles are more closely connected to Coolmore than Ladbrokes

Nulty

Was hovering over the bet button waiting to see if Dragon Pulse was going to Newmarket. He stays in France and Hermival travels instead.

mailburner

apart from the irish national the guineas are the worst races
for me betting wise

ill be going with somebodys selection here rather than looking
at my own fancy and thats something i rarely do

Slattsy

Ground looks like it could be soft, or at the very least good to soft for the weekend. Thats going to suit Camelot big time and will win doing handstands

NaiveMelodies

Red Duke at 66s is definitely over-priced.

Ran a great race 4 lengths behind Daddy Long Legs in Meydan from an impossible draw.
Has run creditably in 3 G.2s, could have perhaps beaten Trumpet Major on another day. Regardless of that, less than 2 lengths behind Trumpet Major does not constitute the huge difference in price between the two.
Was apparently over the top in the dewhurst.

The Quinns fancy a big run,apparently the old lad never has a bet, but is backing Red Duke on Sat.


What's the story with the ground in newmarket? Really hope the ground is good.

Just See Slattsys comments on the ground.. positive for Camelot alright, can't be backing him at those prices though!

Slattsy

Michael Prosser, Newmarket clerk of the course said :

"We've had two and a half inches of rain since the Friday after the Craven meeting, including 17mm in the last 24 hours, and there's more to come today, but Monday is going to be beautiful and though we could get another 6mm to 8mm of rain into Tuesday morning it's then due to settle down for the rest of the week.

"We will be racing on fresh ground savedspecifically for the Guineas, and knowing how well the Rowley Mile drains and with grass growth so strong we could be back to good to soft by the end of Monday and then, if the forecast is correct, heading towards good ground by Saturday"

Link: http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/art...?id=1822&cid=5

UrbanSea

Trumpet Major for me. Plenty of the big guns coming here fresh, Trumpet Major blew an admittedly depleted Craven field away. It's generally a plus to have a run under your belt going in to it and the ground was good to soft the last day, handled it real well.

Also, the horse he had in second was a Group 3 winner. He beat a horse of Roger Varian's who ran very well in the Italian Guineas and third in the BC last backend

NaiveMelodies

UrbanSea wrote: »

Trumpet Major for me. Plenty of the big guns coming here fresh, Trumpet Major blew an admittedly depleted Craven field away. It's generally a plus to have a run under your belt going in to it and the ground was good to soft the last day, handled it real well.

Also, the horse he had in second was a Group 3 winner. He beat a horse of Roger Varian's who ran very well in the Italian Guineas and third in the BC last backend

Got a few quid on Red Duke at 85s there, if Trumpet Major's in with a shout when push comes to shove, can't see Red Duke being too far behind.

Mgoraf

Abtaal at 11/1 for me. Very impressive run in France over a mile. Think he is good value for this.

convert

Slattsy, can you provide a link for the above quotation? Thanks.

Slattsy

convert wrote: »

Slattsy, can you provide a link for the above quotation? Thanks.

Only have my phone until this evening, I'll lash it up then. It's on the racingpost website.

Pinesky

With the going on the soft side and twenty odd runners the draw could be vital a la Rock of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing . I'll hold fire until the draw is made

Nulty

Its soft right now. 6.1 on the going stick. Theres another 15mm due over the next three days. It will be good-to-soft at best I think.

Colonel Sanders

Kevin Blake wrote an interesting piece on Camelot in his Irish Fiekd blog. Using the phone so can't find it to post up. Worth a read if you can find it.

Slattsy

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Kevin Blake wrote an interesting piece on Camelot in his Irish Fiekd blog. Using the phone so can't find it to post up. Worth a read if you can find it.

Here ya go :
http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/article.php?id=1822&cid=5

baazzaa

If it good ground or good to soft Il go parish hall, theve put him up there alongside there good ones.plenty of classic getters in pedigree, (would prefer real good ground)

Born to sea will have perfect ground for him and french fiftenn could be interesting

Slattsy

I read that Bolger won't run Parish Hall if the ground is soft.

Also, 25ml of rain fell last night. They're hoping that the rest of the week stays dry. By my reckoning the best the ground will be is good to soft.

kingkenny2012

I think 6/4 about Camelot is very short. The last few years have shown that the RP Trophy is not a very good marker for the Guineas. Everyone remembers the disappointment of St Nicholas Abbey and I think St Nicholas was more impressive in the RP Trophy than Camelot, and was a well-beaten 6th in a Guineas that didn't prove to be all that good, maybe with the exception of Canford Cliffs. I think Camelot could be very effective over further, and a cut in the ground will help him, but the hype about him has just made him completely unbackable, and I will be looking for value.

Born to Sea could prove to be a superstar over 1m, which he is bred to run at, but his form does look pretty suspect. I know he was lame after his 2nd behind nephrite, but not many winners have come out of that race, and the same story applies with his maiden. As much as I would love to see John Oxx get another superstar, I can’t have this horse.

I think the price about Top Offer seems way too short after he only won an ordinary Newbury Maiden. Also, the form wasn't really boosted when the 2nd was 6l behind the winner on his next start.

I think the value in the race comes from Trumpet Major and French Fifteen

Trumpet Major ran a very admirable 5th in the Dewhurst last year, finishing like a train and indicated that an extra furlong would do him the world of good. He proved this when running out an easy 5l winner over C&D last weekend and this run could really stand to him. A general price of around 10/1 is very appealing to me, with the horse seeming to have strengthened up a lot over the winter. I presume Ryan Moore takes the ride again, and that's always a plus. However, if the ground is anything worse than good to soft, I cannot have this horse after an abysmal run, finishing 8l last of 4 over 7f of soft ground at Sandown, and not quickening up at all. If the ground is Good(which we will prob need a miracle for) and Trumpet Major races well, I wouldn't be surprised to see Red Duke nearby at an over-priced 66/1 in places.

Reports from Newmarket this morning claimed that overnight rain has brought about soft ground ground with some more to come tonight, so it looks like we’ll a 2000 guineas ran on soft for the first time in donkeys years. I think this is a massive plus for French Fifteen and I really fancy him on this ground. With the very well-respected Olivier Peslier on board for trainer Nicolas Clement and owner Sheikh Mohammed, I think he has a massive chance after reversing the form of last years Prix Thomas Bryon with Abtaal in April’s Prix Djebel. Although Abtaal finished very strongly, I think Peslier had plenty of horse left under him, and he didn’t need to use the whip at all for the last 100 yards. FF has proven Group One form on Soft when he comfortably took last year’s Criterium International, showing a brilliant turn of foot, with promising horses like Bonfire and Learn behind him. At a price of 12/1, he looks very good value for a Group One proven horse, and will be getting the backing of my few quid!

Imhof Tank

kingkenny2012 wrote: »

Reports from Newmarket this morning claimed that overnight rain has brought about soft ground ground with some more to come tonight, so it looks like we’ll a 2000 guineas ran on soft for the first time in donkeys years. I think this is a massive plus for French Fifteen and I really fancy him on this ground. With the very well-respected Olivier Peslier on board for trainer Nicolas Clement and owner Sheikh Mohammed, I think he has a massive chance after reversing the form of last years Prix Thomas Bryon with Abtaal in April’s Prix Djebel. Although Abtaal finished very strongly, I think Peslier had plenty of horse left under him, and he didn’t need to use the whip at all for the last 100 yards. FF has proven Group One form on Soft when he comfortably took last year’s Criterium International, showing a brilliant turn of foot, with promising horses like Bonfire and Learn behind him. At a price of 12/1, he looks very good value for a Group One proven horse, and will be getting the backing of my few quid!

I am torn between the 2 French colts myself.

French Fifteen did win the Criterium on soft and has trained on, so he is the obvious one.

If Im honest though I do have naggling doubts about FF's class and am basically looking for an excuse to back Abtaal instead. I cant find any going reports for his 2yo form on line - can anyone clarify whether has he any form on the equvalent of UK soft?

Nulty

I wrote a general preview over the weekend. I try not to make a tip, it wasn't very hard. I've already got Born To Sea at 16/1 antepost.

http://www.letsbet.ie/blog/nulty/qipco-2000-guineas-newmarket-may-5th-2012/

kingkenny2012

Imhof Tank wrote: »

I am torn between the 2 French colts myself.

French Fifteen did win the Criterium on soft and has trained on, so he is the obvious one.

If Im honest though I do have naggling doubts about FF's class and am basically looking for an excuse to back Abtaal instead. I cant find any going reports for his 2yo form on line - can anyone clarify whether has he any form on the equvalent of UK soft?

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=790946#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Racing Post form guide is very good. Search any horse on the homepage and you can see their lifetime form.
Ya, I see where you're coming from. The reason I'm going for FF though is because of how comfortable he looked on Soft ground last year in the Group One and after beating Abtaal already this year I think he deserves to be shorter in price!

kingkenny2012

Slattsy wrote: »

Ground looks like it could be soft, or at the very least good to soft for the weekend. Thats going to suit Camelot big time and will win doing handstands

With the ground definitely Soft now Slattsy, do you still fancy Camelot? A post on Racing Post this morning read:
"The trainers son James O'Brien has said Camelot will NOT want it too soft, so backers beware,they won't want to give him a very hard race & ruin his Derby chances,they may use this as a prep race for the Derby, "
I have searched and tried to find an article or something to back this up and couldn't find any, so I am unsure as to the legitimacy of the comment, but would this concern you?

Does anybody have a list of the draw? Is there much of a draw bias at Nkt?

RichieLawlor

kingkenny2012 wrote: »

and was a well-beaten 6th in a Guineas that didn't prove to be all that good, maybe with the exception of Canford Cliffs.

Your a tough man to please. Makfi, Dick Turpin, CC were the first 3 home, all proper horses

Slattsy

kingkenny2012 wrote: »

Slattsy wrote: »

Ground looks like it could be soft, or at the very least good to soft for the weekend. Thats going to suit Camelot big time and will win doing handstands

With the ground definitely Soft now Slattsy, do you still fancy Camelot? A post on Racing Post this morning read:
"The trainers son James O'Brien has said Camelot will NOT want it too soft, so backers beware,they won't want to give him a very hard race & ruin his Derby chances,they may use this as a prep race for the Derby, "
I have searched and tried to find an article or something to back this up and couldn't find any, so I am unsure as to the legitimacy of the comment, but would this concern you?

Does anybody have a list of the draw? Is there much of a draw bias at Nkt?

The softer the better over mile as far as I'm concerned. If you look at how well he won his races last year, how well he travelled, his turn of foot, he will take some beating. Could easily win this on the bridle, well maybe not that easy.
After the St Nick debacle a few years ago, Coolmore simply wouldn't run this horse if they didn't expect him to win. I doubt he'd have ran on good to firm.

Also, Parish Hall ruled out by Bolger.

The draw might not make too much difference, 18 declared, a few still could drop out. They tend to race down the centre of the course now too.

kingkenny2012

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Your a tough man to please. Makfi, Dick Turpin, CC were the first 3 home, all proper horses

Sorry, you're right. It got mixed up it was the Derby that proved disappointing that year, with the exception of Workforce and Rewilding. But yes, I am also a hard man to please!

Imhof Tank

kingkenny2012 wrote: »

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=790946#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Racing Post form guide is very good. Search any horse on the homepage and you can see their lifetime form.
Ya, I see where you're coming from. The reason I'm going for FF though is because of how comfortable he looked on Soft ground last year in the Group One and after beating Abtaal already this year I think he deserves to be shorter in price!

Cheers. Yeah, so Abtaal liking for "vsoft" confirmed.

Ab was 3L ahead of FF last year. I dont believe now that he was fully tuned up for the Djebel.

He will do for me at 10/1.

Imhof Tank

kingkenny2012 wrote: »

James O'Brien has said Camelot will NOT want it too soft,

Is that not classic Ballydoyle speak though, when it comes to their prospective stallions?

"what he really wants is real good ground to show what he can really do............."

kincsem

I backed Power at 17+ and laid Camelot at 2.5. And a bet on Maybe in the 1000 at 2.8.

Camelot has only run twice against four horses each time, a total of eight opponents, three of which were stablemates.
Camelot beat Zip Top in the Racing Post in a slow time compared to the rest of the card.
The 5:20 race that day, a 0-75 handicap Apprentice Series Final race was the only race slower against standard.
Previously Zip Top lost to Crius, and last month Crius was beaten 5 lengths by Trumpet Major in the Craven. Trumpet Major was a close up 5th in last year's Dewhurst behind Parish Hall (non-runner, ground), Power, Most Improved (non-runner, injured), Bronterre.

On form Camelot has no real form, although he is a Group 1 winner.
On breeding he is a middle distance horse in a mile race.

Not for me.

kincsem

Newmarket is a very fast drying course. Thursday, Friday, Saturday with no rain will see it dry out. I expect good ground.

sting60

kingkenny2012 wrote: »

With the ground definitely Soft now Slattsy, do you still fancy Camelot? A post on Racing Post this morning read:
"The trainers son James O'Brien has said Camelot will NOT want it too soft, so backers beware,they won't want to give him a very hard race & ruin his Derby chances,they may use this as a prep race for the Derby, "
I have searched and tried to find an article or something to back this up and couldn't find any, so I am unsure as to the legitimacy of the comment, but would this concern you?

Does anybody have a list of the draw? Is there much of a draw bias at Nkt?

I have Camelot antipost but been by Montjeu is a hugh worry.Ground is currently soft with heavy in the dip.

kincsem

Soft

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=newmarket

The soil type is very consistent, comprising 20-30cms deep of silt loam or silty clay loam, overlying chalk brash usually 30-40cms below the surface. The soils are extremely well structured throughout, with dense, deep rooting to at least 20cms. This excellent structure is due in part to the benefits associated with extensive earthworm activity found all over both racecourses.

Given the free-draining nature of the underlying chalky brash, there is no requirement for drainage.

Slattsy

How many trainers aimed their horses for the 2000 expecting good to firm going?
I'd say 80% wanted and hoped for good to firm.
The French horses, Trumpet Major and Camelot are the only horses I can see that are well suited to soft. Hard to weigh up those French ones. I fully expect Trumpet Major to be in the mix. Surely through Power on Dewhurst running O'Brien knows where he stands with TM though.
Can't see past Camelot with soft in the going description.

DB74

Caspar Netscher for me. Has some decent form on Sft ground and should run a big race

Nulty

kincsem wrote: »

Soft

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=newmarket

The soil type is very consistent, comprising 20-30cms deep of silt loam or silty clay loam, overlying chalk brash usually 30-40cms below the surface. The soils are extremely well structured throughout, with dense, deep rooting to at least 20cms. This excellent structure is due in part to the benefits associated with extensive earthworm activity found all over both racecourses.

Given the free-draining nature of the underlying chalky brash, there is no requirement for drainage.

Where did you get the description of the soil kincsem? I'd be very interested in finding a description for all racetracks like that

MoscowFlyer

Camelot is ridiculously short for such a competitive race.

Enjoying reading everyone's opinions on the race here, keep it up. Have no clue who Im gonna side with (if anyone!). Gonna wait until tomorrow night so I can have a good look at everyone in the race.

kingkenny2012

Slattsy wrote: »

The French horses, Trumpet Major and Camelot are the only horses I can see that are well suited to soft.

I would have thought TM's 8l beaten 4th of 4 on soft ground at Sandown would have been enough to give the indication that he doesn't like it soft. It's definitely enough to put me off anyways.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=779114#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

kincsem

Nulty wrote: »

Where did you get the description of the soil kincsem? I'd be very interested in finding a description for all racetracks like that

http://www.newmarketracecourses.co.uk/racing/going-track-weather/newmarkets-racing-surface/