Thursday April 19th

rossom

‎3.20 Ripon

Jedward 7/1

This awfully named horse looks a huge price if the wide draw doesn't kill him. A recent recruit from the Charles O'Brien stable, I've been following him for a while and I think he is a very well handicapped horse, especially if Fahey gets a bit of improvement out of him. He'll relish the soft underfoot conditions and is possibly one of the most interesting recruits I've seen in a long time. He could easily end up improving 10-15lb if he appreciates the change of scenery.

unitedrover

Thats so cool! Btw I give him a good chance too.

UrbanSea

I've backed Swimcombe Flame in the first at Cheltenham. I fancy her to beat Une Artiste, though she has good course form.

I put some change from my account on Sharetheblame at Tip tonight. Showed promise on its debut a few weeks ago, travelled well for a long way. Should do better with that run under its belt.

Also went for All Fur Coat in the first at Newmarket. Will find this much harder than the run at Redcar, but still ran well to finish second and posted a RPR of 84. The rest could be anything, but at 9/1 it's worth a bet with form in the book

Pinesky

rossom wrote: »

‎3.20 Ripon

Jedward 7/1
Draw can be unpredictable on soft ground , tends to favour low numbers and whichever side produces the early pace can mitigate the draw effect. Best of luck Rossom and thanks once again for the analysis

Nulty

Pinesky wrote: »

Jedward 7/1
Draw can be unpredictable on soft ground , tends to favour low numbers and whichever side produces the early pace can mitigate the draw effect. Best of luck Rossom and thanks once again for the analysis

It's the sharp bend that makes 8f races difficult for wide drawn horses. Add to that the soft gorund and wider drawn horses likely needing to go round horses compounds the disadvantage. In my opinion of course

UrbanSea

All Fur Coat traded odds on in running and gets done

hucklebuck

****s sake, Une Artiste was evens this morning and I thought it was too skinny so backed swincombe.

Thats Une Artistes last two wins I have decided not to back her and backed second instead :mad

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

It's the sharp bend that makes 8f races difficult for wide drawn horses. Add to that the soft gorund and wider drawn horses likely needing to go round horses compounds the disadvantage. In my opinion of course

I must have been thinking of the next race blabbing on about 8f races....

rossom

One of two things happened there with Jedward after she travelled that well. She either ran out of steam due to the break or else she has a rotten attitude. Time will tell

Pinesky

Jedward looked to be going well throughout . Thunderball even though drawn high switched to the wide outside over 1f out and picked up well. I think Jedward despite being by Namid may not have appreciated the ground that soft and her best run to date was on goodish ground . Fair play to you Rossom the money was down today and we may have just loaned our dosh

Nulty

Late but I like Billie Magern in the 3.45 at Cheltenham at the price. Was shorter earlier but 9/2 is a price I'd take. Was hoping he'd go to Sandown next week but probably not now.

6/1 now...ground a problem

Gringo180

Like the look of Beatrice Aurore in the 4.45 at Newmarket

Nulty

Jesus, does Sam Twiston-Davies not know when a horse needs to be pulled up?

Huntley

Nulty wrote: »

Jesus, does Sam Twiston-Davies not know when a horse needs to be pulled up?

Why do you think the horse should have been pulled up?

MoscowFlyer

He was interviewed before the race and basically said the horse now had no chance with the extra rain during the day. Def should have pulled it up.

He was pretty bullish about Kayf Aramis chances in the next at Cheltenham saying it will love the ground and should handle the trip. Hasn't won in a while but @ 4/1 it's worth a tenner.

Nulty

Huntley wrote: »

Why do you think the horse should have been pulled up?

Yep

Miss read your question!

I think the horses jumping was getting progressively worse, seemed to be getting tired and the jockey even said before the race that the ground had gone against him. STD was on another horse yesterday Frascati Park who's jumping deteriorated in a similar way and he ended up on the deck as well - obviously not related but circumstances are almost identical. The horse was hampered by the fall of Exmoor Ranger and left him around 3 or 4 lengths off two strongly travelling horses. I think they should have saved him for another day.

That's my opinion.

Huntley

He was hampered by Exmoor Ranger and as you say, was still only 3 or 4 lengths off the leaders. Sam was still only niggling at him when he came down, there was place money to be won and I think it would have been extremely premature to have pulled him up at that stage.

Nulty

It was a catch 22 for the jockey. He was too close to stop and going too badly to keep going. There would have been plenty of punters saying he cheated by pulling the horse up when he was in with a chance.

The horse was odds on not to make it around after a few blunders earlier. He was getting tired and was never going to win. Place money yeah but the horse fell in the end. That was more likely than getting 3rd at that stage.

Also, when the pressure got stronger on a horse with jumping problems in a race I rarely see the jumping improve and often see it get worse

Imhof Tank

Nulty wrote: »

Jesus, does Sam Twiston-Davies not know when a horse needs to be pulled up?

Go back and look at his ride on Mad Moose to win the 2.25 today

Plenty of mistakes throughout the race, waited with, so far back it traded at 500/1 in running according to the commentary, galvanised by STD to collar the clear leaders after the last to win handily.

Nulty

I watched that race. Yeah, that was similar and good reason to persevere with a horse. Point taken.

Although, he was out the back and conserved energy. Frascati and Billie were out making it.

Huntley

Nulty wrote: »

going too badly to keep going.

He wasn't though, not by any means. The horse wasn't even off the bit.

Yourself and Moscow Flyer have suggested that Sam was at fault for not pulling the horse up, that is unwarranted considering his horse was still in the mix.

hucklebuck

Anyone see the Twice Over race?

What happened him?

Imhof Tank

hucklebuck wrote: »

Anyone see the Twice Over race?

What happened him?

The market spoke.

He should have been far too good for these. If the stable had fancied him he would have been 4/7.

UnitedIrishman

hucklebuck wrote: »

Anyone see the Twice Over race?

What happened him?

Gosden's horse Questioning had the rail, stayed in behind Prince Siegfried, Twice Over travelled strongly until around 2f out when was joined by Questioning and the two battled it out until the line with Buick just getting him up (which I was quite pleased with despite very small stakes). Wouldn't be too worried with Twice Over's performance - had a bad draw and was just headed on the line.

Excuse my ignorance but is 1m 50sec a decent time for a 1m1f race or around the average?

Nulty

Huntley wrote: »

He wasn't though, not by any means. The horse wasn't even off the bit.

Yourself and Moscow Flyer have suggested that Sam was at fault for not pulling the horse up, that is unwarranted considering his horse was still in the mix.

The horse fell and I could have predicted that. I thought he was going to fall. If the horse is pulled up the horse doesn't fall. Its a judgement call that the jockey is entitled to make and evidently he made the wrong one on this occasion. The jockey is at fault for not pulling the horse up. Its his prerogative and his responsibility. You might say its easy in hindsight but I'm not talking from hindsight, I'm talking from in the moment when I thought the horse should have been pulled up.

MoscowFlyer

The way Twiston Davies was talking about the horse pre race gave me the impression he didn't think it should be running. "Lets just hope he gets around safe and sound" were his exact words. Horse was never winning that race but it might have been too early to pull it up. Anyways it happened, thankfully jockey and horse are fine. lets move on and get some winners at Tipp and Wolv tonight!

I've went biggish on Black Caddilac in the first at Wolv, 11/8 earlier this morning. Good Luck.

Huntley

Nulty wrote: »

If the horse is pulled up the horse doesn't fall. Its a judgement call that the jockey is entitled to make and evidently he made the wrong one on this occasion. The jockey is at fault for not pulling the horse up.

This logic suggests that everytime a horse falls it is the jockeys fault for not pulling them up sooner. That is pretty flawed in reality.

It would have been very premature to pull the horse up because he put in a few sketchy jumps. It wasn't like he was going through every fence, he was 3 or 4 lengths off the leaders and still on the bit.

hucklebuck

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Wouldn't be too worried with Twice Over's performance - had a bad draw and was just headed on the line.

Excuse my ignorance but is 1m 50sec a decent time for a 1m1f race or around the average?

Twice Over should have demolished that lot on ratings.

Sorry couldnt tell you about times, I only fleetingly look at flat racing.

UrbanSea

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Gosden's horse Questioning had the rail, stayed in behind Prince Siegfried, Twice Over travelled strongly until around 2f out when was joined by Questioning and the two battled it out until the line with Buick just getting him up (which I was quite pleased with despite very small stakes). Wouldn't be too worried with Twice Over's performance - had a bad draw and was just headed on the line.

Excuse my ignorance but is 1m 50sec a decent time for a 1m1f race or around the average?

Slow by 2.52 seconds

UnitedIrishman

hucklebuck wrote: »

Twice Over should have demolished that lot on ratings.

Same thing happened TO in 2009, finished third despite being about 10lbs ahead on the ratings to the winner and 2nd place.

He's one of those that can be real top class on it's day but it's about finding that day - like the Juddmonte last year

Nulty

Huntley wrote: »

This logic suggests that everytime a horse falls it is the jockeys fault for not pulling them up sooner. That is pretty flawed in reality.

It would have been very premature to pull the horse up because he put in a few sketchy jumps. It wasn't like he was going through every fence, he was 3 or 4 lengths off the leaders and still on the bit.

Did I say I was talking about everytime?

He fell.

The jockey got it wrong on this occasion.

Imhof Tank

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Same thing happened TO in 2009, finished third despite being about 10lbs ahead on the ratings to the winner and 2nd place.

He's one of those that can be real top class on it's day but it's about finding that day - like the Juddmonte last year

According to the RP that loss was going related in 09.

In fairness Twice Over has been top class most days. Id say its more a case of being on the downgrade now as a 7yo.

Huntley

Nulty wrote: »

Did I say I was talking about everytime?

He fell.

The jockey got it wrong on this occasion.

No. That is why I said your logic "suggests" it.

He fell. It happens. The jockey isn't to blame on this occasion and certainly shouldn't have pulled up a horse who was still in the mix to be competitive.

Nulty

Huntley wrote: »

No. That is why I said your logic "suggests" it.

He fell. It happens. The jockey isn't to blame on this occasion and certainly shouldn't have pulled up a horse who was still in the mix to be competitive.

Try not to generalise my points when you know that's not what I mean.

That horse was never going to do anything but fall. And that's what happened. It was STDs decision not to pull him up and he is responsible for letting it happen. Who else is going to take responsibility for it? Jockey gets praise for a good ride and making good decisions and takes the flak when he makes bad decisions.

His arm is twisted because he has a responsibility to the owner, trainer and the punter but you cannot say that he was right to keep on with a horse that was inevitably going to fall especially when his chance had all but gone after being hampered. I think your overstating the condition of the horse.

Racing post inrunning comments:

Led until jumped slowly and headed 6th, stayed pressing leader until led 9th, hit 12th, 15th and 16th, hampered 4 out, 4th and beaten when fell 3 out

Nulty

I should add that there was prize money for the 1st 3 places. He was in 4th when beaten and fell. Sure he could have picked up £1,909.87 but he was more likely to fall than finish 3rd.

Nulty

Sporting life in running comments:

led until 6th, led 8th, not fluent and headed 12th, not fluent next, hit 16th, hampered 4 out, 4 lengths 4th and looked to struggling when fell 3 out opened 9/2 touched 13/2 £1500-£300

Huntley

Nulty wrote: »

Racing post inrunning comments:

I have little interest in racingpost comments. I base my opinions through my own eyes.

Nulty wrote: »

That horse was never going to do anything but fall. And that's what happened. It was STDs decision not to pull him up and he is responsible for letting it happen. Who else is going to take responsibility for it?

He is responsible for the horse but that doesn't mean he did anything wrong.

Nulty wrote: »

His arm is twisted because he has a responsibility to the owner, trainer and the punter but you cannot say that he was right to keep on with a horse that was inevitably going to fall especially when his chance had all but gone after being hampered. I think your overstating the condition of the horse.

It was not inevitable that he was going to fall. Horses regularly put in mediocre rounds of jumping and win. If every horse who put in a few sketchy jumps was pulled up you wouldn't even have seen Synchronised complete a circuit in the Gold Cup.

Nulty

Huntley wrote: »

I have little interest in racingpost comments. I base my opinions through my own eyes.



He is responsible for the horse but that doesn't mean he did anything wrong.



It was not inevitable that he was going to fall. Horses regularly put in mediocre rounds of jumping and win. If every horse who put in a few sketchy jumps was pulled up you wouldn't even have seen Synchronised complete a circuit in the Gold Cup.

You'd be only too happy to read someones opinion that agreed with your own though wouldn't you. I posted those comments because they are another perspective other than my own.

I don't really know why you persist with this. You just keep telling me what you think over and over again. Once is enough.

Finally stop bringing other horses and races into this. Stop generalising my points. I'm talking about one race and one race only.

sting60

At the sales. Katie Walsh sold a Dutch Art colt for 160,000 bought it for I believe for 40,000 last year.Pinhooking is alive and well.

Huntley

Nulty wrote: »

You'd be only too happy to read someones opinion that agreed with your own though wouldn't you.

I'm happy to read anybody's opinion as long as it is reasoned. Whether it is in agreement or disagreement is irrelevant for me. I have far more pressing issues than trying to convince some nobody on the internet to agree with me.

Nulty wrote: »

I posted those comments because they are another perspective other than my own.

It was your perspective which I was discussing, I have no interest in post race comments from something which can't converse with.

Nulty wrote: »

I don't really know why you persist with this. You just keep telling me what you think over and over again. Once is enough.

I was wondering how long it would take before you pulled out this sort of a response. Hop on the bandwagon with the others.

I am countering your points, it would be more productive if you untangled your knickers and highlighted my points which you felt were incorrect.

You are talking about one race in hindsight, even though you try to dispute this. Just because the horse fell does not mean it was inevitable, as I said there is plenty of horses who put in mediocre rounds of jumping and win. That isn't generalising your point, it is stating a fact which you don't seem intent on acknowledging.

Nulty

Huntley wrote: »

(1)I'm happy to read anybody's opinion as long as it is reasoned. Whether it is in agreement or disagreement is irrelevant for me. (2) I have far more pressing issues than trying to convince some nobody on the internet to agree with me.



(3) It was your perspective which I was discussing, I have no interest in post race comments from something which can't converse with.



(4)I was wondering how long it would take before you pulled out this sort of a response. Hop on the bandwagon with the others.

(5)I am countering your points, it would be more productive if you untangled your knickers and highlighted my points which you felt were incorrect.

(6)You are talking about one race in hindsight, even though you try to dispute this. (7)Just because the horse fell does not mean it was inevitable, as I said there is plenty of horses who put in mediocre rounds of jumping and win. That isn't generalising your point, it is stating a fact which you don't seem intent on acknowledging.

(1) No your not.

(2) It doesn't appear that way to me

(3) I have stated my perspective. You seem to want to hear it again and again.

(4) I don't even know what your talking about here

(5) I have done that. You have ignored them.

(6) Again...what?

(7) You have ignored the fact that I have said that Billie Magern in the 3.45 at Cheltenham today, in my opinion, was odds on in the odds of him falling. Therefore he should have been pulled up. If he didn't fall and he won the race STD would have been given a heros welcome and ride of the week but that was never going to happen. What did happen is the horse fell and STD took the risk of persevering with the knowledge that that could happen. Fair play to him - you win some you lose some. He lost this time fighting a losing battle.

As for generalising my point, it looks like your missing the point completely now.

dave3004

I was looking at Exmoor Ranger's jumping more than anyone's in this one lads and I couldn't believe how strange a jumper he is.

It's hard to put into words his action but if someone has a flick through the video replay, this horse is NEVER EVER a chaser.

At every single fence he needs to throw in one more stride. Not brave enough at all at his fences. I dunno if this is lack of confidence and this can change or is it just his style but I thought his jumping was the worst of the field without ever really brushing the birch.
Strange really. Also, when the jock asked for a big one, he'd still throw in one more stride.

After 2 fences I was sure he was going to take a tumble. Are all horses safe from this race? Couple of the falls looked pretty bad !

hucklebuck

dave3004 wrote: »

I was looking at Exmoor Ranger's jumping more than anyone's in this one lads and I couldn't believe how strange a jumper he is.

It's hard to put into words his action but if someone has a flick through the video replay, this horse is NEVER EVER a chaser.

At every single fence he needs to throw in one more stride. Not brave enough at all at his fences. I dunno if this is lack of confidence and this can change or is it just his style but I thought his jumping was the worst of the field without ever really brushing the birch.
Strange really. Also, when the jock asked for a big one, he'd still throw in one more stride.

After 2 fences I was sure he was going to take a tumble. Are all horses safe from this race? Couple of the falls looked pretty bad !

He may be over the top though, he was third at Cheltenham where he carried 11-12.

hucklebuck

Here is the Huntey Nulty discussion as I see it:

Nulty, I think Billie was just running in snatches and Sam was right not to pull him up.

Huntey, in fairness to Nulty he was just talking about Billie

Imo if a horse is empty and has little/ no chance of picking up prizemoney he should be pulled up rather than risked in the hope some horse ahead of him falls or unseats.