Cowen's analysis of the Irish crisis

Permabear

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Motorist

This is all part of the pathetic damage limitation attempt by FF after Mahon. Send out Cowen, the polished revisionist, to the US with coffee poured down his throat. Maybe he should have been looking after his brief while in office instead of knocking the gargle and dealing with all the resulting nasal congestion that brings.

Cowen's career ended in shyte, no amount of speeches will redeem his incompetence. Why doesn't the prlck give a speech about what he and Sean Fitzpatrick really talked about at Druid's Glen golf course two months before the bank guarantee.

Quazzie

He does speak a lot of truth although it's more popular at the moment to blame FF for everything as that somehow makes people feel better about the idiots that are currently in the position of power.

Scofflaw

Just a reminder that "blarg blarg fat alcoholic blarg *****" is not political discussion. Save it for toilet walls.

moderately,
Scofflaw

Lapin

Quazzie wrote: »

He does speak a lot of truth although it's more popular at the moment to blame FF for everything as that somehow makes people feel better about the idiots that are currently in the position of power.

:rolleyes:

You were doing well until you mentioned "idiots".

We had 14 years of "idiots" in the recent past, elected by people who are happily content to remain idiots.

Quazzie

Lapin wrote: »

:rolleyes:

You were doing well until you mentioned "idiots".

We had 14 years of "idiots" in the recent past, elected by people who are happily content to remain idiots.

Granted that labelling them all idiots might be a bit dismissive, but I still don't thing we have a government we can be proud of.

I've never advocated FF or what they done whilst in charge, but the largest issue is they type of people we elect into government, and also how they are elected in. How anyone can honestly say that a primary school teacher from Mayo is the best candidate to lead our country through one of the worst economic crisis is beyond me. Cowen wasnt the man to do it either but Kenny is just a more sober version. We elect the wrong type of people to run the country and them are amazed when we get the same results.

johnnyskeleton

Permabear wrote: »

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Outside of a few places, I'm not sure that there is anywhere in the world that would vote differently. Voting tends to be focussed on how much cam be gained by each individual. Ireland is perhaps more extreme than other places but the same policies were followed in the UK. The "New" Labour party was the one which offered the best bits of traditional Labour party policies with the best bits of the Conservative policies as well. They left the other parties in the dust until it all, inevitably went wrong.

An exception to this may be in Germany, where the fear of repeating the mistakes of the past has ensured that the majority of people apparently vote based on the good of the nation rather than on individual wants.

Even now in Ireland, if you were to ask people what they would do if, for example, gold/oil/pirate treasure was found in Ireland with a resultant increase in jobs, taxes and a reduced reliance on social welfare to balance the budget and put the economy in a healthier, albeit not celtic tiger, state, you would get some dissappointing answers. Typically their response would be "ah sure I knew it would work out alright, it always does".

Now, supposing that on top of that correction, it appeared that there was a windfall bonus of €500m. This therefore doesn't have to go towards balancing the budget and can be spent as the government sees fit. If they were to ask the people what to do with it, most would want X hospital re-opened, increases of Y to PS pay/social welfare or reductions in tax of Z. The government will look to see which of these is the most popular and go with it. A few will want increased infrastructural investment which, if it is to be spent, is probably the least worst way to spend it. But if someone suggests that we use the money to pay off some of our debts or to even save for future spending, it would not only be rejected by the Irish people would would be treated with downright hostility. People have been taught to value only those services which immediately affect them.

Thus, the only way in which we could have a more accountable government is where the Irish people become educated as to the common good, rather than their own good. It seems that the last 5 years haven't really taught people anything, certainly not to the extent as the great depression had on the mentality of the German voters.

cast_iron

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Thus, the only way in which we could have a more accountable government is where the Irish people become educated as to the common good,

Very true. Yet our latest education policy seems to be dropping the very subjects that teach us how best to analyse our predicament and perhaps learn from it.

While many may see the virtues of paying off debt, centralising hospital services, investing in R&D and infrastructure, etc., quite a large section of our population do not see the bigger picture involved, and everyone's vote counts the same. The rise in popularity of Sinn Féin should be proof enough of that.

Thankfully, for now at least, we elect predictable parties with predictable policies, where rocking the boat too much is a no-no, and the country remains somewhat stable. Our middle classes have seen a reduction in their income, but not that much really.
Iceland seems to have taken a more extreme route in comparison, where the adjustment was much harder on almost everyone. But then they prosecute their incompetent politicians, while ours retire on large pensions. Go figure.

Sierra Oscar

Motorist wrote: »

This is all part of the pathetic damage limitation attempt by FF after Mahon. Send out Cowen, the polished revisionist, to the US with coffee poured down his throat.

Cowen has little or no contact with FF administration since he left office - people in the party will tell you that he wants to leave space for the current leadership to get on with its work. He was speaking at this event in a personal capacity and it is just plain wishful thinking on your behalf if you think this was some sort of carefully planned strategy to deal with Mahon. Cowen is done with electoral politics and he is telling things as they are, and fair play to him for doing so.

He does have a valid point also - every political party was advocating for less taxation and more spending. Each political party wanted to fuel the boom - and when Cowen tried to take the foot off the pedal coming up to the 2007 GE he was lambasted by the other political parties. Just look at FG and their stamp duty plans in the 2007 GE - they wanted to lower the stamp duty to fuel the property bubble. I think history will in due course highlight that the entire electoral system in Ireland failed to control the boom. FF were in government so it has to take the fall - but the other political parties have to admit responsibility for not advocating for more balanced economic measures to be implemented.

Dirk Gently

Motorist wrote: »

This is all part of the pathetic damage limitation attempt by FF after Mahon. .

In fairness, if any one is acting in hindsight and with a degree of revisionism its labour and FG. I remember their election campaigns, based on unrealistic growth figures in an attempt to out buy the election from FF. They constantly called for less tax and more spend throughout opposition. Even labour became a low tax party. 2007 was particularly self serving as the dogs in the street knew at that stage that the game was up on the property bubble. I remember posting here at the time that I hoped FF would win that particular election because otherwise they'd escape blame when the crash hit during the coming term. Labour and FG's economic management was a crash course learned as they watched on while in opposition from 2007 onwards and their fear was illustrated by their inaction when the greens blinked as lab + FG made sure FF continued to limp along long enough to tie their own hands after the 2011 election.

I think FF should disband but ignoring labour and FG's role in this is just sticking our heads in the sand.

Mr.Micro

Cowen can say what he likes now..... Mr Wise all of a sudden :rolleyes:

The basics were not even in place. No real financial regulation of the banks whatsoever. Stoking a housing market even when it was overheated. Total dependence on construction and nothing put in place for a new economy, but all the bs about a smart economy. Simple schoolboy economics were not even applied. So shut up Mr.Cowen and take the blame for your Government's gross incompetence, instead of trying to put a rosy spin on it.

With regards to the bank bailout, its his word we have to take, until, if ever, we the public find out what happened at Anglo and all the characters involved? I suspect there would be shocking revelations, but will we ever know? The blanket bailout covered a lot of sins in one swoop IMO.

The Waltzing Consumer

Permabear wrote: »

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Well that is a question that cannot be answered. I do not think it is okay to say that because opposition may have manifestos or policies that are similar to the Governments, that they are as much to blame or would have done the exact same things.

At the end of the day, the opposition is a back seat driver, FF were driving the country, it matters zero that other parties called for this or that, they were not in command, they did not have the full picture like the Government did.

So I respect your view permabear, but the blame lies with FF and the electorate who repeatedly voted them in, the responsibility lies with the Government getting the information and making decisions, not opposition parties policies that were never actually tried or tested.

gordon_gekko

Permabear wrote: »

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cowens speech proves to me one thing , that fianna fail are a party who follows the public mood rather than leads from the front

washman3

The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »

Well that is a question that cannot be answered. I do not think it is okay to say that because opposition may have manifestos or policies that are similar to the Governments, that they are as much to blame or would have done the exact same things.

At the end of the day, the opposition is a back seat driver, FF were driving the country, it matters zero that other parties called for this or that, they were not in command, they did not have the full picture like the Government did.

So I respect your view permabear, but the blame lies with FF and the electorate who repeatedly voted them in, the responsibility lies with the Government getting the information and making decisions, not opposition parties policies that were never actually tried or tested.

Good afternoon Enda. welcome to boards.ie

The Waltzing Consumer

washman3 wrote: »

Good afternoon Enda. welcome to boards.ie

:rolleyes: Any opposition party Washman, it does not matter which. You can look at any party, SF, FG, LAB, ULA and it really matters nothing what their policies were during FF Government as they did not have the full scope of the matter and were all in essence back seat drivers and I do not think it is accurate to try and shift any blame on to these opposition parties.

It is one thing to call for one policy when you have no power to actually implement. It is another to have the power and implement the polices.

thebman

gordon_gekko wrote: »

cowens speech proves to me one thing , that fianna fail are a party who follows the public mood rather than leads from the front

Show me a party that doesn't in a western democracy and you'll be showing me a party not in power.

Permabear

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kfdb

I haven't yet read the linked article but from the extracts provided, I have one particular observation. The FF administrations didn't do as Cowen suggests they did - try to catch up from decades of under investment in infrastructure and institutions. Instead, they handed the keys over to so-called social partnership.

This locked in a higher cost base for the Irish economy in the form of a vastly expanded and renumerated state sector. Something I doubt we'll ever actually recover from.

Just to be clear, this isn't a dig at the people occupying those roles and layers created over this period. They were and continue to be acting in their own economic interest with a still powerful force of unions to unify and direct that power.

It was/is the job of government to balance this kind of lobby against other interests and arrive at a sensible, long term plan that can be adjusted over time. It is an abject failure of government to simply hand over the reins to one of those groups and then spend ten years surfing the wave and telling the rest of the world about Ireland's economic miracle.

KFBD.

EchoO

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

...when Cowen tried to take the foot off the pedal coming up to the 2007 GE he was lambasted by the other political parties.

But Cowen didn't try to take the foot off the pedal, in fact, he did the exact opposite. The Regling/Watson Banking Report stated that Cowen's 2007 Budget added added markedly to the overheating of the economy. Government spending increased by more than 11% in 2007 and 2008.

The report went on to say that there were opportunities to mitigate the risks and create a cushion to the recession, but that these opportunities were not taken. Instead, "the policies of government and culture in the banks “added fuel to the fire".

The chief cause of the current difficulties we are facing was the collaspe of the property bubble. Fianna Fail's unique relationship with major property developers inflated the bubble to such an extent that the construction industry ended up being one fifth of the economy, something which has never happened in any other developed country. If other parties where in power would this have happened? - I don't think so.

The White report found that the Finance Department had issued warnings over the overheating of the construction sector but that these were unheeded. Repeated warnings from the Department on increasing public spending were also ingored. Would other parties have taken the opportunities to cushion the recession or heed the Finance Department warnings? - we have no way of knowing, but be do know sucessive FF-led Governments didn't.

Fianna Fail is being blamed because Fianna Fail is to blame.

ninty9er

EchoO wrote: »

The chief cause of the current difficulties we are facing was the collaspe of the property bubble. Fianna Fail's unique relationship with major property developers inflated the bubble to such an extent that the construction industry ended up being one fifth of the economy, something which has never happened in any other developed country. If other parties where in power would this have happened? - I don't think so.

You mean like the "unique relationship" that the self same people had with FG - still to this day attending the FG Galway tent? Or the ones that people elected as "independent" TDs, or perhaps the "trade unions" who weren't so much interested in taking on employers as they were in spending membership subs to bankroll the so called "Labour Party"

Come out of the fog!

later12

Just read the entire speech, and I have to say it was one of Cowen's more eloquent analyses of the global, European and Irish economic crisis. Maybe that's because his advisors wrote his speech. Maybe that's because I didn't have to hear him speak. Maybe it's because Cowen has had a lot of time to stand in the wreckage of his political career and reflect appropriately on the shortcomings of counter-cyclical stabilizers, financial regulation and monetary union over the past 12 years.

Who knows? All in all, a soliloquy well worth reading, I'd say.

I did laugh at the part about governments building up countercyclical surpluses, though. I wonder what Dr. Merkel would make of such a monstrous suggestion. Everyone knows that the way to come down harshly on asset price bubbles is a balanced budget rule. Yes To The Treaty!/ sarcasm

thecommietommy

cast_iron wrote: »

Very true. Yet our latest education policy seems to be dropping the very subjects that teach us how best to analyse our predicament and perhaps learn from it.

While many may see the virtues of paying off debt, centralising hospital services, investing in R&D and infrastructure, etc., quite a large section of our population do not see the bigger picture involved, and everyone's vote counts the same. The rise in popularity of Sinn Féin should be proof enough of that.

Thankfully, for now at least, we elect predictable parties with predictable policies, where rocking the boat too much is a no-no, and the country remains somewhat stable. Our middle classes have seen a reduction in their income, but not that much really.
Iceland seems to have taken a more extreme route in comparison, where the adjustment was much harder on almost everyone. But then they prosecute their incompetent politicians, while ours retire on large pensions. Go figure.

It was the quite small section of our population, basically the ones that really run Ireland, the bankers, developers, Sir Tony O'Reilly and his mouthpieces in Independent newspapers that did not see the bigger picture involved. And it's still going on with Kenny and Gilmore, you don't hear the people who got us into this mess i.e. the bankers etc criticising FG/Labour too much - of course not, FG/Labour are bailing them out with Sean and Mary Citizen picking up the tab :mad:

The ordinary people were told by the ' experts ' who had a vested interest in keeping the charade going etc. Those who disagreed were derided and told to commit suicide by the ' experts ' including a few know alls on boards.ie !!!! Read Matt Coopers Who Really Runs Ireland sometime and then you'll see the bigger picture involved.

Drumpot

Still find it funny (in a completely depressing way) that people in ireland still havent awknowledged why Fianna Fail did what they did and just as importantly that things could of been much worse had other parties (promising more goodies at election time) gotten the reigns sooner.

This presumption that Lab/FG or for some stupid reason Sinn Fein would of done things dramatically differant is based on absolutely nothing other then ignorance. They offered nothing to suggest they would of been more prudent, anything they said around the time of the boom was that they would of spent more which would of left us in an even bigger hole. I dont care if people want to be completely ignorant to why the country is in the state it is, but dont for one second think that any other party has any credible claim to make that they would of done things differantly.

In hindsight of course Cowan knows what happened and what could of been done (sure dont we all), but in hindsight we would be in an even bigger hole now had FG/Lab gotten into power sooner (alternatively they would of lied to get into power and raised taxes and come down harder on banks for no specific reason whatsoever!). .

As stated, this is not a self vested ignorance limited to Ireland but its mindboggling that we havent learned much, if anything, from nearly going completely bankrupt.

This government has so far shown the reason why they were not elected in the good times. They lied through their teeth to get into power (when they didnt even have to - FF did more then enough for Lab/FF pre election!) and have yet to do many things right. The only things most people think that are being done competently is actions forced on them by the bailout agreement (and theyve even managed to F**k some of them up).

Cowen is spot on, but it doesnt really matter to some people what you say. The facts arent as important as bashing FF. Sure why even have a debate when you can just throw a "FF ruined the country" rant ? Yes this is progressive and constructive ! :rolleyes:

The truth is that a government mirrors its people in modern democracies and the opposition are even more sensitive to what is populist because they can be without any ramifications ( see FG/Lab manifestos in 2007 - apparantly its ok to promise things that would of made things even worse for this country, once you werent in power - yes this makes sense).

FF represented everybody in Ireland during the boom. Those who voted for them, those who voted for the opposition (who would of made an even bigger cock up of the country) and those who didnt bother their ass voting. Anybody who thinks otherwise must of been protesting on the streets and canvassing for a change in Irish Political thinking . . I genuinley believe we are all to blame and we were either with the political machine (FF and failed Lab/FG promising things that would of done even more damage to our economy) or didnt do enough to change them . .

Dannyboy83

Sorry for being a cynic, but it just reads like Cowen trying, retrospectively, to put a method to the madness.

A picture speaks a thousand words tho:

Drumpot

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Sorry for being a cynic, but it just reads like Cowen trying, retrospectively, to put a method to the madness.

A picture speaks a thousand words tho:

Thats a brilliant picture ! ! Bet the Unions would say that "sure most of that salary goes on tax" as if everybody else is exempt from Income tax!

I think there was a method, if not fatally flawed, to FF's madness.

They simply gave the people what they wanted at the expense of prudency . . Simple as . .

nacho libre

Cowen is probably no different than most Irish people in putting position before being principled. Yet we kid ourselves in expecting something from politicans that we are ourselves are, by and large, not prepared to do.

Most people don't think of the common good. This is why if you walk into a pub in Tipperary and start condemning Michael Lowry to a local, you may well end up being told we don't like your type around here.

Yet it's likely in my own county, if we had a figure like Lowry, he'd be seen as a hero too, while likely being despised by much of the rest of the country

Duggys Housemate

nacho libre wrote: »

Most people don't think of the common good. This is why if you walk into a pub in Tipperary and start condemning Michael Lowry to a local, you may well end up being told we don't like your type around here.

I'd say you'd be ok in South Tipp. The whole Lowry thing is Dublin centric nonsense, most of the FF corruption was FF and Dublin based, not FG and country based. I have a bit of a beef with tribunals, in any case, nothing has been proven yet but people think it has.

Back to the way to control democracies in the future. I think B. Franklin said that all democracies would end in Tyranny as people would just take over the treasury and give themselves money. Thats what happened. What's needed is a constitutional referendum which makes the government have a surplus of 1.x times the growth rate in a boom, and forced to have a minimum deficit of 1.x times the negative growth in a recession, spent on capital improvements only. The legislature can over rule with a 65% vote, but that would be a very visible process, and if it goes tits up we are all to blame ( not just the voters of the ruling party, as it would need cross party consensus).

That might mean that a lot of infrastructure gets built in a recession but what of that. This would, in effect, dampen growth and recessions. Keynes theory is not all that novel outside of Economics, it is standard negative feedback, or dampening theory.

john reilly

a lot of what he said makes sense, but he has had a while to think about it. never thought he was as bad as everybody says. his looks dont help. in fairness most of the money the goverment was taking in came from construction and there isnt too many people who would cut off the hand that feeds them although thats what should have been done. cant beleive the easy ride this goverment is getting though. people seem to forget they stuck the boot in, while in opposistion they ridiculed everything the goverment did. they helped to make ireland a laughing stock on the international stage and yet they have carried on with all of the f.f green policies. none of the parties f.f, f.g or lab ever look past their own party and getting into power to what is the best for our country and yet they still get into power, because they are giving the irish people what they want. we want it all and we want it now.