Is it best for the EU if Sarkozy loses?

Cardinal Richelieu

In his latest manifesto it states that he wants to freeze Frances contribution. Now apart from the loss of EU funding, would having Sarkozy continue as President of France be a good or bad thing for the EU and its member states? IMHO I think the man would sell his grandmother for a vote and comes from a long line of politicians that will say what they think their audience wants to hear rather than what they believe or what will benefit people in the long term. So not exactly the ideal type to help lay down foundations for a secure Euro and a stronger EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9188665/France-election-2012-Nicolas-Sarkozy-promises-to-protect-France-as-he-unveils-manifesto.html

Opinion Polls Results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012

WolfgangWeisen

I personally hope he loses the election, although to be honest I'm ignorant as to the quality of the prospective replacements and the potential effect they would have in the EU.

I'm not a fan of that which is referred to as the "Merkozy" and believe their combined influence undermines the underlying democracy on which the union we are a part of us is both built on and relies upon. As such, I'm in favour of anything that will split the private union they've formed.

pat_mas

Sarkozy will probably win the elections but I'd be surprise if he stays another 5 years ... I believe he'll precipitate the end of the 5th republic. Things are not getting any better in France and there's already a red wave storming which accounts for nearly 15% and which can only grow given the path politicians have chosen. Hollande (Socialist Party) is considered by many as a muppet (and in the worst case as a traitor).

My bet on the coming French elections: the first round will see a reasonnable participation with the rise of "anti-system" parties (mostly FdG & FN) and the second round will probably be affected by a huge abstention given the choice offered to voters: the same politics (TINA: austerity) packaged in two different ways (UMP or PS). This is the begining of the end !!!
The parlementary elections in June will be more interesting as they will give more visibility of the so-called "little" parties. In the end, France will have to re-invent its politics or it'll turn really bad over there.

The good new for Irish people is that the days of Merkozy (or Merlande) are numbered whatever the outcome of these elections.

Denerick

Sarkosy will probably lose the election so the entire question is moot. Polls give Hollande a decisive victory in a run off election between the two, though that gap is narrowing somewhat.

Sarkosy is an odious character who will do nothing to help resolve the debt crisis. That said, Hollande seems to live in la la land as well but he'll probably pursue centrist policies if elected.

The economist called the race the most frivolous election in French history, they aren't wrong.

Happy Monday

Cardinal Richelieu wrote: »

In his latest manifesto it states that he wants to freeze Frances contribution. Now apart from the loss of EU funding, would having Sarkozy continue as President of France be a good or bad thing for the EU and its member states? IMHO I think the man would sell his grandmother for a vote and comes from a long line of politicians that will say what they think their audience wants to hear rather than what they believe or what will benefit people in the long term. So not exactly the ideal type to help lay down foundations for a secure Euro and a stronger EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9188665/France-election-2012-Nicolas-Sarkozy-promises-to-protect-France-as-he-unveils-manifesto.html

Opinion Polls Results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012

Yes.

pat_mas

Denerick wrote: »

Sarkosy will probably lose the election so the entire question is moot. Polls give Hollande a decisive victory in a run off election between the two, though that gap is narrowing somewhat.

Sarkosy is an odious character who will do nothing to help resolve the debt crisis. That said, Hollande seems to live in la la land as well but he'll probably pursue centrist policies if elected.

The economist called the race the most frivolous election in French history, they aren't wrong.

I wouldn't bet on that. I know what the polls are saying but when they believe that for instance FdG voters will turn to Hollande for the second round I simply don't buy it. I believe that a lot of those who will vote for FdG at the first round will simply go fishing instead of voting when they'll be facing the "no choice" of SarkHollande at the 2nd round. And this will make these elections way more open than suggested now.

BTW the Economist is the voice of the city and as such they should shut up. Talking of denial when they're advocating a policy that is proven a total failure whatever the angle you're looking at it ... is kinda cynical, isn't it !?!

Denerick

pat_mas wrote: »

I wouldn't bet on that. I know what the polls are saying but when they believe that for instance FdG voters will turn to Hollande for the second round I simply don't buy it. I believe that a lot of those who will vote for FdG at the first round will simply go fishing instead of voting when they'll be facing the "no choice" of SarkHollande at the 2nd round. And this will make these elections way more open than suggested now.

Possibly... But Melanchon (Or whatever his name is) is enjoying a poll bump which exceeds the traditional far left vote... I'm wagering at least half of those voters will turn out in the second round to vote for the lesser of two evils.

BTW the Economist is the voice of the city and as such they should shut up. Talking of denial when they're advocating a policy that is proven a total failure whatever the angle you're looking at it ... is kinda cynical, isn't it !?!

That comment is a little cynical. The economist is a neo liberal magazine (Which of course, is satanical to the French) but they aren't advocating the mass austerity that is killing Europe at the moment. Besides - open your mind a little. It isn't healthy to only ever read something that your personally agree with.

pat_mas

Denerick wrote: »

... open your mind a little. It isn't healthy to only ever read something that your personally agree with.

Don't worry for me, mostly everything I read about Society & Politics ... well, I have to disagree with.
I don't like Sarkozy (to say the least) but the 2nd round of these elections will pose a big dilemna to many:
1/ should we vote for our enemy
or
2/ Should we vote for a traitor

In both cases the same politics will be applied ... once this is considered, going fishing is not such a bad prospect for a Sunday Of Spring. BTW Melenchon is not important, what's important is that France is starting to move and it's about time !!!