Which signs are leading indicators of recovery?

newfrontier

Hi just from recent conversations I have heard of a few people buying and moving houses ..normally I would say this might be an early sign of recovery ...but I remain a bit skeptical..what other signs would you watch for to give an early indication of recovery ? As timing is everything in business and will dictate a few major decisions I have to make ...what are your thoughts on what to look for?

Dum_Dum

New car sales (excepting when the state interferes in markets via scrappage).

DubTony

Dum_Dum wrote: »

New car sales (excepting when the state interferes in markets via scrappage).

Good point Dum_Dum. But it could be said that the state constantly interferes in the new car market by having massive taxes on every car sold (specifically VRT). Scrappage schemes simply allow people to keep more of their own money.

Personally I see retail sales as the leading indicator of recovery. Without it, as we've seen, there's really just stagnation, or worse.

PhatPiggins

DubTony wrote: »

Good point Dum_Dum. But it could be said that the state constantly interferes in the new car market by having massive taxes on every car sold (specifically VRT). Scrappage schemes simply allow people to keep more of their own money.

Personally I see retail sales as the leading indicator of recovery. Without it, as we've seen, there's really just stagnation, or worse.

Personally I don't think retail sales and consumer sentiment take enough account of online sales. I don't think the switch to e-business is be considered enough in the sentiment poles that are generated.

What are you're own thoughts?

casinoshop.ie

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Personally I don't think retail sales and consumer sentiment take enough account of online sales. I don't think the switch to e-business is be considered enough in the sentiment poles that are generated.

What are you're own thoughts?

Online sales are fully accounted for in all figures as any company selling more than €50,000 a year into Ireland must register for and pay Irish VAT - hence all Amazon sales have local Irish vat as do most of the larger online retailers.

Retail sales are probably the best indicator of an economy having sustained growth. The sales come from people having more confidence in their jobs being safe, followed by people who are moving back to employment.
Initially its the sales of small luxuries that increase, then its restaurants and then its the bigger ticket items such as furniture and cars.

So watch out for full restaurants and then the ecomomy is on the way back.

Tourism this year may provide that vital kick-start as money from overseas tourists is extra external money for the economy rather that re-circulated money and its a very labour intensive area too.

DubTony

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Personally I don't think retail sales and consumer sentiment take enough account of online sales. I don't think the switch to e-business is be considered enough in the sentiment poles that are generated.

What are you're own thoughts?

The sentiment polls aren't important. The on-the-ground figures are the real indicator. Sure, online sales will affect bricks and mortar business, but I'm not sure that the increase in online sales directly affects the market so much that retail shops are still closing by the dozens each month. It depends a lot on which market a retailer is in. Peats announcement yesterday is unfortunate, and I'm sure they were seriously affected by the growth in e-commerce given the business they were in.

The fashion stores are doing well enough that lots of them are constantly recruiting. Aldi, Lidl and Tesco don't seem to be too hard pressed either with all three still opening stores here (although this isn't necessarily about the confidence these companies have in the economy - its about grabbing market share, so somebody somewhere is losing).

When the smaller retailers are playing golf 3 times a week again, you'll know things are on the way up.

RATM

A good indicator of recovery would be unemployment figures dropping three consecutive months.

In the property market there won't be any turnaround until the above happens and a foreign bank comes in offering mortgages. When you see those two signals the recovery will have started.

I wouldn't hold your breath though, it is now looking very like Spain is going to default, I wouldn't think we will be too far behind them especially given the ECB are insisting we pay the Anglo debt, something which is beyond us.