Tour of Flanders !

mediwheel

So who's gonna win ???

happytramp

It's got to be Tom Boonen right? As long as he's there or there about's at the business end of things I don't see that there's anyone who can touch him at the moment.

tfrancer

FC

mediwheel

Stijn Devolder, as a 50/1 ??

flying11

i think cancellara and boonen will be the two main contenders. i also think pozzato could be up there, he is in good form lately

eoghan84

Could Sagan do it? Will he have learned from the sprint at Gent-Wevelgem?

davidmccann

I wrote a bit of a preview here i just remembered yesterday having published it that I left out Matti Breschel, another guy with an outside chance. Can't wait for Sunday to see how this new course plays out. I was a big fan of the Muur van Geraardsbergen but the flat section after it and the Bosberg did seem to break up the excitement.

Caroline_ie

Fabian will win Flanders - Boonen will win Paris Roubaix.
(I'm just back from the future)

Chips Lovell

For me Boonen is the big favourite this year. He seems to be back to his very best and his back to back wins in E3 and Gent - Wevelgem at the weekend were very impressive. He's attacks on the bergs this year have been stunning to watch, an awesome display of power and, as he showed on Sunday, he's still got a vicious sprint.

Cancellara is the other obvious one but I think the peloton is increasingly aware of his main weakness, which is that if he wants to win, he has to win alone. Look at all of his great victories, Milan - San Remo, Paris - Roubaix, Tour of Flanders, E3 last year, Montepashe Strada Bianchi this year. They were all solo. Even for a guy of his incredible strength, it's a major ask that not one single person in bunch be able to hold his wheel if he goes. Look at any of the other favourites and if they arrive to the line with Cancellara, you'd bet on them for the sprint.

I'd watch Breschel too. After a miserable last year he's regaining his form again. Anyone who saw him riding off the front on the Kemmelberg on Sunday will know he's one to be reckoned with.

Pozzato certainly seems to be on the way back, but I wonder if he has the head for it. He's prone to negative racing and can often let his chances slip away.

Sagan will win classics before long but is still very young. He's a really rounded rider and can sprint as well as he can power up the bergs. He's got a great lieutenant in the form of Daniel Oss, who's been an absolute animal so far this year.

Garmin have been very quiet and Farrar and Haussler aren't firing. However Sep Vanmarcke has come of age and is capable of an upset as he demonstrated in Het Nieuwsblad.

The big underachievers are BMC. Look at the start list. They're stacked with talent, but the only one really going well is Ballan at the moment. Hushovd and Gilbert are both struggling. It's going to click for them at some stage, but Sunday may be too soon.

Harrybelafonte

I'm going to go with Boonen and Cancellera and one other (Chavanel again) heading off together and Boonen winning the sprint.

If Fabian wants to win this year, he'll have to go sooner and pace his ride high enough to shake everyone, as he did with Boonen last year. From what everyone is saying Boonen is much stronger than last year, but FC is clever and if Boonen breaks, he'll follow. I'm pretty sure it'll be a breakaway group to win again, some of the riders are just too stronger to sit and wait for a group finish. That climbs will break them up and then there'll be a lonely dual carriage run for the leader/s as usual.

I'm also going to try and chance a prediction that whoever come clear in the lead from Kwaremont may manage to hold the lead?

ROK ON

I would love to see Boonen win and he can. IF we got a repeat of the past 4 editions we will be lucky. Would love to see Fabian and Tom fight it out mano a mano once again.

Cant see Hushovd being in there.

Vanmarcke or Van Avermaet as an outside for the win, but one of the will be in the top 3.

Pity that Geraint Thomas won't be at Flanders or Roubaix. He will do well there in the future.

morana

as always I will pick a relative outsider Breshel with Bennatti in 2nd because of his good ride last week making the selection and coming back in the final km's from a puncture.

But as Vlad said Boonen on the bergs has being impressive so he would be the obvious choice

Harrybelafonte

Also, looks like it's going to be a dry day, overcast like last year.

I think it would be great if Nuyens got it again this year.

Morrisseeee

This years route:



The 'mountains' :
109.3 Taaienberg 530m, 6.6%, 10% max (500m cobbled)
115.7 Eikenberg 1300m, 6.2%, 10% max (1200m cobbled)
131.3 Molenberg 463m, 7%, 14.2% max (300m cobbled)
145.7 Rekelberg 800m, 4%, 9% max
149.0 Berendries 940m, 7%, 12.3% max
156.8 Valkenberg 540m, 8.1%, 12.8% max
179.5 Oude-Kwaremont 2200m, 4%, 11.6% max (1500m cobbled)
183.0 Paterberg 360m, 12.9%, 20.3% max (all cobbled)
189.6 Koppenberg 600m, 11.6%, 22% max (all cobbled)
193.6 Steenbeekdries 700m, 5.3%, 6.7% max
210.1 Kruisberg/Hotond 2500m, 5%, 9% max
220.0 Oude-Kwaremont 2200m, 4%, 11.6% max (1500m cobbled)
223.4 Paterberg 360m, 12.9%, 20.3% max (all cobbled)
230.4 Hoogberg/Hotond 3000m, 3.5%, 8% max
240.2 Oude-Kwaremont 2200m, 4%, 11.6% max (all cobbled)
243.6 Paterberg 360m, 12.9%, 20.3% max (all cobbled)

I think with the Muur (van Geraardsbergen) gone (1km @ 9%) so are :
1. Cancellara's chances,
2. An exciting/tough finish,
3. Ronde Van Vlaanderen's image/status/popularity !!

.............and therefore Boonen is quite rightly fancied to take a bunch sprint.

ROK ON

There will be no bunch sprint.

The run in this year is arguably more difficult than in the prior years. Also, the change in parcours will do nothing to diminish this race. The course has changed regularly in its history - as have the routes used by all of the monuments.

It will still be the RVV, and the best man on the day will still win.

Chips Lovell

Everyone likes the Muur. But the Oude-Kwaremont/Paterberg finish is just as tough if not harder than the Muur/Bosberg one. If there is a bunch, it'll be a small one.

Harrybelafonte

Morrisseeee wrote: »

This years route:


I think with the Muur (van Geraardsbergen) gone (1km @ 9%) so are :

3. Ronde Van Vlaanderen's image/status/popularity !!

So many people are saying this, but it's total crap. Kwaremont is 2km long of cobbles avergaing a low enough 4%, but topping out at 11%. It's going to be difficult, very difficult. It'd be pretty boring if they never changed or experiement with the courses, otherwise the TdF would have been boring pretty quickly, no Pyrennes etc. No bunch sprint, as well, as others have said.

If you were going to watch it, I'd be sitting on Kwaremont.

Morrisseeee

Ok maybe I was being a bit too sentimental or just mental ! and yep on 2nd look the finish is tough, as they have stacked up the climbs together in quick succession. But with 10km of flat after the last climb I would imagine a re-group unless of course Gilbert is back on form, he could be unstoppable.

Chips Lovell

But the Bosberg was 13km from the finish and that didn't mean a regroup?

ROK ON

With these races after about 220/240km there are less than 10 riders left in contention in many cases. I would be shocked if there were a sprint involving any more than 3-5 individuals. This is war, the causality rate will be high.

Morrisseeee

Did Gilbert not attack on the Bosberg and then was subsequently caught by a chasing group, hence my point ?!

Chips Lovell

Morrisseeee wrote: »

Did Gilbert not attack on the Bosberg and then was subsequently caught by a chasing group, hence my point ?!

Just because one person attacked in one year and subsequently got caught doesn't mean the finish is too easy. Plenty of people have attacked even further out than the Bosberg and won, like Cancellara and Ballan (the Muur) and Devolder (the Eikenmolen).

Morrisseeee

I never said the finish was 'too easy', I was being senimental about the loss of the Muur :



and (at first glance) that this years final 2 climbs looked easier than last years, and I still hold that opinion. But when I looked more closely I see that the finish is stacked with climbs. I then noted that there's 10km to go after the final climb and that it gives the leading contenders a chance to re-group, which I believe will happen (Cancellara being the exception!).

You said they didn't re-group after the Bosberg, I pointed out that they did.

Chips Lovell

Morrisseeee wrote: »

I never said the finish was 'too easy'

You said that the the change meant the race lacked an exciting and tough finish. For me not tough = too easy.

Morrisseeee wrote: »

You said they didn't re-group after the Bosberg, I pointed out that they did.

There was a regroup last year but in most recent editions there wasn't a regroup after the Bosberg. 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 for example.

Morrisseeee

Yes at first glance, I was of the opinion it would lack excitement & passion, ie. the fans on the Muur.

Ok we're both right about the Bosberg :pac:

Now lets stop bickering and enjoy the 'war'

TheBlaaMan

Just for reference. Its on British Eurosport (1) in two sections:


90 minutes (live) between
11:45-13:15
Live Cycling: Tour of Flanders - Tour of Flanders: Brugge to Oudenaarde (90min)

Break for motor racing for an hour

Then the finale

14:15
Live Cycling: Tour of Flanders - Tour of Flanders: Brugge to Oudenaarde (105min)

Cant wait!

sy

The greatest (my favourite anyway!) one day race of them all Boonen is flying and as Vlad stated earlier he is just cruising up those bergs. I think he has set his season on winning this race. Being Belgian this counts more than PR and DeVolder deprived him of at least one other certain victory (he has 2 Flanders already!) . However I think Matti Breschel will be the man to stick it to him. He looked impressive last Friday and was cruising on the climbs. He can out kick Cancellara but he will have to drop Tom if it comes down to a sprint. Cancellara will be gunning for it too but I think Roubaix is his best bet this year. Pozzato and DeVolder will be in the shake up but teams are not too strong. Ballan might make the podium and this might take the pressure off the BMC team for Roubaix. A million permutations. Bring it on..

happytramp

Actually, it would be great if there was somewhere cycling fans could watch this stuff together in Dublin. As it stands i feel I've been marginalised by having to rely on the forums here and on cyclingnews to communicate my excitement to someone other than my disinterested girlfriend.

mcgratheoin

happytramp wrote: »

Actually, it would be great if there was somewhere cycling fans could watch this stuff together in Dublin. As it stands i feel I've been marginalised by having to rely on the forums here and on cyclingnews to communicate my excitement to someone other than my disinterested girlfriend.

Good idea - in my experience, any pub with several spaces would have no problem throwing something on a tv if you told them there'd be a dozen or so people coming in to watch it.

michaelm

I think with the Muur (van Geraardsbergen) gone (1km @ 9%) so are :
1. Cancellara's chances,
2. An exciting/tough finish,
3. Ronde Van Vlaanderen's image/status/popularity !!

.............and therefore Boonen is quite rightly fancied to take a bunch sprint.[/QUOTE]

I think the leaving out the Muur is a very brave step by the organisers however the finishing circuit, taking in the Paterberg and Kwaremont twice, may adequately compensate for this. From a spectators point of view this is going to be a fantastic experience. I have been at this race many times and gutted that I won't be there on Sun. Having a Leffe in Kluisbergen watching the race on a big screen outdoors waiting for the race to arrive on the Kwaremont, with the cycling mad Flandriens, is an amazing experience. Oh and - Boonen to win, based on early season form and this being the big "home" race.

emtroche

Didnt realise the course was changed until i read this thread. Why was it changed?

michaelm

emtroche wrote: »

Didnt realise the course was changed until i read this thread. Why was it changed?

Financial reasons apparently, which I presume means to increase TV viewership. It seems to have paid off as it is being carried live on NBC for the first time. Will be a cracking event for spectators now as that final loop is all contained within a few miles making it possible to see the race a few times near the end.

mcgratheoin

Boonen chatting about the race this year

http://eurosport.yahoo.com/video/27032012/58/boonen-cancellara-threat.html

TheBlaaMan

Heres the course for Sunday

http://rvv.pro.p.assets.flandersclassics.be/files/525/original/rvv2012-elite-men-map-profile.pdf?1328114157

07Lapierre

http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=10240&status=True&catname=Latest%20News

emtroche

07Lapierre wrote: »

http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=10240&status=True&catname=Latest%20News

Hope this doesnt happen in Clare this weekend!:D

TheBlaaMan

Just noticed that the Eurosport TV coverage comes back at 14:15BST (after an hour away). The estimate for the races' progress suggests that at that time (15:15 local) the race will definitely have crested the Koppenberg - even at the slowest pace it might be expected to travel (it is expected to reach there between 14:28 & 15:07 local), meaning that a race deciding selection may already have been made (perhaps unlikely) but in any case one of the signature climbs will not be broadcast live!:mad: A bit ironic too that UPC highlight this climb as 'iconic' in the notes on their TV guide for Eurosport for the day!

At its possible fastest pace, we might even miss the second ascent of the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg climbs (we'll definitely miss the first ascent of these) though we'll just catch it if the pace is anything below its forecast fastest. Why do Eurosport have to take a break from the action at such a critical time......

Looks like I'll be watching online instead.....

flying11

anyone here doing the fantasy cycling over on the road.cc website?
basically you pick 4 star riders and 5 domestiques and the person with the highest score at the end of each stage/race wins. adds a bit of fun and excitement when watching a race. just taught i wouldd share it in case anyone would be interested in playing.
heres the link- its free to play
http://fantasy.road.cc/

on_the_nickel

Eurosport has cycling scheduled for 5, is it safe to assume that's the highlights?

If I go for a spin in the morning, no way I'm going to be allowed watch it live all afternoon.

funnights74

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

Just noticed that the Eurosport TV coverage comes back at 14:15BST (after an hour away). The estimate for the races' progress suggests that at that time (15:15 local) the race will definitely have crested the Koppenberg - even at the slowest pace it might be expected to travel (it is expected to reach there between 14:28 & 15:07 local), meaning that a race deciding selection may already have been made (perhaps unlikely) but in any case one of the signature climbs will not be broadcast live!:mad: A bit ironic too that UPC highlight this climb as 'iconic' in the notes on their TV guide for Eurosport for the day!

At its possible fastest pace, we might even miss the second ascent of the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg climbs (we'll definitely miss the first ascent of these) though we'll just catch it if the pace is anything below its forecast fastest. Why do Eurosport have to take a break from the action at such a critical time......

Looks like I'll be watching online instead.....

Ya an hour away at a critical point of the race, bummer, anyone got a link for a hassle free viewing please post!!

TheBlaaMan

funnights74 wrote: »

anyone got a link for a hassle free viewing please post!!

Like that is going to be allowed......:rolleyes:

The tax man

Sorry TheBlaaMan, but UPC don't write the notes for program info,it comes from the providing station. It's word for word the same on Sky's listing.
Thanks for the expected timing of the race, I'll find a stream while the touring cars are on.

MrCreosote

Just saw the pre-race interviews- Sylvian Chavanel is going to take it out! Cancellara looked very tense.

emtroche

LIve here http://player.longtailvideo.com/player4.3.swf?file=vrt_sporza.net.flv&bufferlength=1&streamer=rtmpt://vrt.live.flash.streampower.be/sporza&stretching=exactfit&autostart=true

funnights74

Looks like cancellara has crashed out at the 60Km mark. Feeding station incident.

TheBlaaMan

Broken clavical, it seems. You have to wonder about Cancellara, or perhaps , more specifically, the teams' committment for him. Either he's very accident prone, or his team mates just aren't up to the job of supporting/protecting him. In MSR he had no-one who could support him in the latter stages, in E3 he crashed twice !. Over and out for his spring campaign at this stage. No Paris Roubaix for him.....

ednwireland

langeveld looks like another collar bone, taken out y a panicking spectator

ednwireland

cracking race

dastardly00

Going to go to either 3 men: Boonen, Ballan or Pozatto!!

Bunnyhopper

Great cat and mouse stuff on the run-in from those three.

bcmf

Boonen unstoppable