liverpool .. hopeless to back this team

irishjay

i dont know any other team as bad for backing .. last night i wasnt even that shocked that they were 2 up and lost 3 2 .

arsenal did well to get an away win . asnd man city late goal..
man u this weekend v fulham . im going go out on a limb here and say a draw.. spurs v chelsea a draw too . 2 . 2 at that

mike65

Don't back them! (maybe the corner handicap, quite good at winning them, just not scoring from them)

useurename

i think they are going to hammer Wigan at the weekend. Don't give up on them just yet.If they played like they did for the 1st half hour last night and converted more of the chances they created.if...........only

kryogen

And lather rinse repeat and lather rinse repeat and lather rinse repeat...................as needed

You're doing it wrong, you only back Liverpool to draw, hit the post, have more corners and lay Andy Carroll scoring. Sheesh, no wonder why people don't make money.

shangri la

They also play football outside england.

DB74

shangri la wrote: »

They also play football outside england.

Liverpool don't!!!

Collie D

DB74 wrote: »

Liverpool don't!!!

:pac:

Now now, they've played Cardiff and Swansea this season. European nights at Anfield are back.

Back on topic...anyone got any stats on pre-match prices for Liverpool over last few seasons? A layer's dream I'd imagine...especially as (and all offence intended) Liverpool fans have to be some of the most optimistic/blinkered (delete where aplicable) around...IMO of course.

DB74

Collie D wrote: »

:pac:

Now now, they've played Cardiff and Swansea this season. European nights at Anfield are back.

Back on topic...anyone got any stats on pre-match prices for Liverpool over last few seasons? A layer's dream I'd imagine...especially as (and all offence intended) Liverpool fans have to be some of the most optimistic/blinkered (delete where aplicable) around...IMO of course.

I just had a look at that there (I only have stats for PL games).

Since the start of the 2009/10 season (Liverpool finished 2nd in 2008/09 so confidence has been quite high basically since then), Liverpool have been odds-on favs in 56 Premier League games.

Their record in those games is

W - 29
D - 16
L - 11

If you had laid Liverpool in every one of those games (staking €100 per game and using best high street price as the lay price) you would be in profit to the tune of €2,304.56 from €5,600 staked which is a ROI of 41.15%

The split for Home vs Away is

Home

Pld - 39
W - 25
D - 10
L - 4

for a profit of €921.58

Away

Pld - 17
W - 4 (I couldn't believe it either!)
D - 6
L - 7

for a profit of €1,382.98

Incredibly 2 of the 4 wins were the first 2 games of the 2009/10 season which means that Liverpool have won just 2 of the last 15 away matches where they have started at odds-on.


If we look at season by season it actually seems to be getting better for the layers

2009/10

Pld - 26
W - 14
D - 7
L - 5

for a profit of €598.35

2010/11

Pld - 16
W - 9
D - 3
L - 4

for a profit of €544.71

2011/12 (to-date)

Pld - 14
W - 6
D - 6
L - 2

for a profit of €1,161.49


Liverpool are at home to Wigan tomorrow and are available to lay at 1.34 on Betfair

DB74

Just to compare to the other teams who would regularly be odds-on (same period):

Arsenal

Pld - 60
W - 36
D - 14
L - 10

Profit of €1,345.47


Chelsea

Pld - 84
W - 55
D - 16
L - 13

Profit of €860.00


Man City

Pld - 68
W - 47
D - 13
L - 8

Loss of €1,112.87


Man Utd

Pld - 86
W - 64
D - 15
L - 7

Loss of €1,714.59


Spurs

Pld - 41
W - 27
D - 8
L - 6

Profit of €494.74


The Rest - HOME matches ONLY

Pld - 147
W - 74
D - 46
L - 27

Profit of €2,681.15


It'd make you think twice about backing a team odds-on in the Premier League and why bookies love accumulators!

DB74

Just to clarify a couple of things

I haven't taken Betfair commission into a/c here at all, and here's why

The efficiency of the WDW market in Premier League soccer is such now that most markets only have a 1-2% over-round (sometimes less) so it is actually better to dutch the other 2 outcomes on the high street as opposed to laying one on Betfair

eg - take the Liverpool vs Wigan match tomorrow

Liverpool are best price 1.33 on the high street (Hills) and 1.34 to lay on Betfair.

So if you lay Liverpool at 1.34 on Betfair and they don't win you will win €294.12 less commission at 5% of €14.71 which is a net profit of €279.41

However the best prices for the Draw and Wigan are 9/2 (general) and 12/1 (VCbet) respectively

So dutching Draw & Wigan using those odds with a €100 stake would see bets of

Draw - €70 @ 9/2 (returns €385)
Wigan - €30 @ 12/1 (returns €390)

so either of those 2 outcomes gives a better return than laying Liverpool on Betfair @ 1.34. Laying @ 1.33 gives a return of €287.88 which is roughly equivalent to the Draw/Wigan bets above so you could chance trying to get matched at 1.33.

Collie D

Excellent contribution, DB74....thank you

razor425

Effective strategy DB74, thanks very much. 85% ROI today.