RaboDirect Pro 12 Run In Thread

durkadurka

With 5 games to go it's time for a Rabo Run In thread
Table below with remaining Fixtures and a best guess as to the outcomes....
　
Leinster 17 63
Munster 17 52
Ospreys 17 49
Glasgow 17 47
Ulster 17 46
Scarlets 17 45
Blues 17 45
　
Leinster 80 1st
　
Ospreys H 4
Munster A 1
Ediniburgh H 4
Ulster A 4
Dragons A 4
　
Munster 69 2nd
Connacht A 4
Leinster H 4
Glasgow H 4
Scarlets A 1
Ulster H 4
　
Ospreys 65 3rd
Leinster A 0
Treviso H 5
Cardiff A 1
Dragons H 5
Aironi A 5
　
Glasgow 62 4th
Aironi H 5
Cardiff H 4
Munster A 0
Treviso A 1
Connacht H 5
　
Ulster 61 5th
Treviso A 4
Aironi H 5
Connacht A 4
Leinster H 1
Munster A 0
　
Scarlets 61 5th
Cardiff A 0
Edinburgh A 4
Aironi A 4
Munster H 4
Cardiff H 4
　
Cardiff 58 7th
Scarlets H 5
Glasgow A 1
Ospreys H 1
Edinburgh H 5
Scarlets A 1

For Leinster, Home wins plus maybe Dragons away should seal 1st place. Beat Ospreys and Munster away and its basically done and dusted.

For Munster, a win at Connacht sets up a home semi. Leinster would need to implode to allow a shot at first place.

For the rest, its probavbly down to bonus points.

Ulster will probably need to beat Leinster in Ravers to go through.

Fishooks12

Looking at Ulsters run in you'd think they still have an decent chance if they beat Leinster

A lot is dependent on the HC though

Would love to see 3 provinces in the semis

durkadurka

We could have a situation where Wales win a grand slam and have no team in the last 4 of the Rabo

Tox56

Wales could have won the World Cup and the Grand Slam and still not have had any team in the last 4.

Management is vital.

Podge_irl

Utterly irrelevant to this thread, but I didn't realise there was a game tonight. That's my Sportsguru challenge fecked a bit.

I think 17 points from Leinster's last 5 games is fairly optimistic.

durkadurka

Podge_irl wrote: »

Utterly irrelevant to this thread, but I didn't realise there was a game tonight. That's my Sportsguru challenge fecked a bit.

I think 17 points from Leinster's last 5 games is fairly optimistic.

It depends on winning in Thomond or Ravenhill.

We certainly have a good record in Ravenhill recently.

That game could well be the week before a HEC semi - good chance that one or both teams will be playing the semis - that would probably be the greatest determinant of the result.

tolosenc

Podge_irl wrote: »

I think 17 points from Leinster's last 5 games is fairly optimistic.

I had 15 when I ran through it.

1 at Ulster and Munster. Win the others with a BP in 1.

Though I can see us winning one if not both of the interpros.

molloyjh

Podge_irl wrote: »

Utterly irrelevant to this thread, but I didn't realise there was a game tonight. That's my Sportsguru challenge fecked a bit.

I think 17 points from Leinster's last 5 games is fairly optimistic.

Agreed. It'll be more like 11 or 12. Which gives us a 22-23 point advantage. Munster need to win all their remaining games and get bonus point tries in most to stand a chance of coming first.

totallegend

Ulster's play-off hopes given a great boost by Cardiff losing to Dragons last night; still in fifth but if they can win in Treviso next week (a big ask) and Leinster can beat Ospreys in Dublin, they'll be going well.

ray jay

durkadurka wrote: »

It depends on winning in Thomond or Ravenhill.

We certainly have a good record in Ravenhill recently.

That game could well be the week before a HEC semi - good chance that one or both teams will be playing the semis - that would probably be the greatest determinant of the result.

Yeah, I'm inclined to think that if Leinster don't slip up before the Ulster match that they may send a second string team to Ravenhill to rest players for the HC semi (assuming they beat Cardiff!). There's only one Pro12 match after Ulster so they should know if they really need the win at that point or if they can afford to lose. It would do Ulster a favour too!

thomond2006

RaboDirect PRO12 Remaining Games

Leinster (63 pts): Ospreys (h); Munster (a); Edinburgh (h); Ulster (a); Dragons (a).

Munster (52): Connacht (a); Leinster (h); (Warriors (h); Scarlets (a); Ulster (h).

Ospreys (49): Leinster (a); Treviso (h); Blues (a); Dragons (h); Aironi (a).

Warriors (47): Aironi (h); Blues (h); Munster (a); Treviso (a); Connacht (h).

Ulster (46): Treviso (a); Aironi (h); Connacht (a); Leinster (h); Munster (a)

Scarlets (45): Blues (a); Edinburgh (a); Aironi (a); Munster (h); Blues (h).

Blues (45): Scarlets (h); Warriors (a); Ospreys (h); Edinburgh (h); Scarlets (a).

http://www.munsterrugby.ie/news/10249.php

thomond2006

Scarlets win 26-14 at Cardiff, with a try bonus point.

Big result, Cardiff are now 6 points off 4th spot.

thomond2006

TABLE:
Leinster 64
Munster 56
Ospreys 53
Glasgow 51

---

Ulster 50
Scarlets 50
Cardiff 45

RaboDirect PRO12 Remaining Games

Leinster (63 pts): Munster (a); Edinburgh (h); Ulster (a); Dragons (a).

Munster (56): Leinster (h); Warriors (h); Scarlets (a); Ulster (h).

Ospreys (53): Treviso (h); Blues (a); Dragons (h); Aironi (a).

Warriors (51): Blues (h); Munster (a); Treviso (a); Connacht (h).

Ulster (50): Aironi (h); Connacht (a); Leinster (h); Munster (a)

Scarlets (50): Edinburgh (a); Aironi (a); Munster (h); Blues (h).

Blues (45): Warriors (a); Ospreys (h); Edinburgh (h); Scarlets (a).

Cardiff's loss today probably puts them out of the running. With their favourable run in (4 winnable games), I fancy Ospreys to finish in the top 4.

phog

thomond2006 wrote: »

TABLE:
Leinster 64
Munster 56
Ospreys 53
Glasgow 51

---

Ulster 50
Scarlets 50
Cardiff 45

Looking at the table shows how Munster losing to Aironi has really hit us in competing for the top spot. Would have made next weeks game ever more tense.

durkadurka

It's all to play for if Munster beat Leinster next week.

Tox56

Without doing much wrong, Leinster could very easily lose 2 in a row. Very big game, both in terms of the league and the HEC, for both teams.

tolosenc

Leinster will be looking to right the wrongs, and effectively seal off the top spot in Thomond next week. Had we won yesterday, there might have been a chance that some players would be rested, but I think we'll be full tilt for El Clasico (we're calling it that now).

CatFromHue

It's still mathematically possible for The Dragons to finish ahead of Cardiff aftter Cardiff's loss last night. There's 12 points between the two teams and The Dragons have Connacht at home, Treviso at home, Ospreys away, and Leinster at home still to play.

The Dragons beat The Ospreys home and away last season and have already beaten them at home this season.

Whereas Cardiff's run in is more tricky in that they play Glasgow away, Ospreys at home, Edinburgh at home, and Lanelli away i.e. they play 3 teams going for the playoffs.

Edinburgh at home which should give them the win they need to secure third spot but stranger things have happened.

its_phil

tolosenc wrote: »

Leinster will be looking to right the wrongs, and effectively seal off the top spot in Thomond next week. Had we won yesterday, there might have been a chance that some players would be rested, but I think we'll be full tilt for El Clasico (we're calling it that now).

I prefer 'Da clashic' to be honest :pac:

justsomebloke

have to say Ulster are going to have tough time trying to brake into the top 4 especially with that run in. Ospreys in a good position to make a run for 2nd especially if Munster get to the HC semi

bilston

justsomebloke wrote: »

have to say Ulster are going to have tough time trying to brake into the top 4 especially with that run in. Ospreys in a good position to make a run for 2nd especially if Munster get to the HC semi

Yep, our home defeat to Treviso looks like it could bite us in the arse.

I think we'll take 9 points from Aironi and Connacht but will probably need to take 5 points from the two games with Leinster and Munster and even that would take us to 64 which might not be enough, but there will be one or two surprises in the run in.

It makes it interesting anyway!

CatFromHue

I think Ulsters qualification hopes will go down to the very last game to be honest.

durkadurka

If they win their quarter they'll let the Rabo go to blazes. With a small squad they need to manage resources

totallegend

thomond2006 wrote: »

TABLE:
Leinster 64
Munster 56
Ospreys 53
Glasgow 51

---

Ulster 50
Scarlets 50
Cardiff 45

RaboDirect PRO12 Remaining Games

Leinster (64 pts): Munster (a); Edinburgh (h); Ulster (a); Dragons (a).

Munster (56): Leinster (h); Warriors (h); Scarlets (a); Ulster (h).

That is far from an easy run-in for Leinster; Dragons are not a bad side and that match will come a week after a potential HEC SF for Leinster, so they'll likely be trying to rest guys or will have picked up a few knocks.

Hopefully a win against Edinburgh with losing BPs in Limerick, Belfast and Newport will be enough; would put Leinster on 71 and mean Munster would need 15 points from their last four matches - not impossible but tricky enough.

Just FYI, if teams finish level on points, it goes to number of games won; Leinster have now won 14 and Munster 12, so if every game is a home win, they will be level on 15 each and it will go to tries scored, currently Leinster have the edge with 38 to Munster's 35...

I think Ospreys have the easiest run-in but too much ground to make up on Leinster; however if Munster slip up they could nab second.

molloyjh

thomond2006 wrote: »

TABLE:
Leinster 64
Munster 56
Ospreys 53
Glasgow 51

---

Ulster 50
Scarlets 50
Cardiff 45

RaboDirect PRO12 Remaining Games

Leinster (64 pts): Munster (a); Edinburgh (h); Ulster (a); Dragons (a).

Munster (56): Leinster (h); Warriors (h); Scarlets (a); Ulster (h).

Ospreys (53): Treviso (h); Blues (a); Dragons (h); Aironi (a).

Warriors (51): Blues (h); Munster (a); Treviso (a); Connacht (h).

Ulster (50): Aironi (h); Connacht (a); Leinster (h); Munster (a)

Scarlets (50): Edinburgh (a); Aironi (a); Munster (h); Blues (h).

Blues (45): Warriors (a); Ospreys (h); Edinburgh (h); Scarlets (a).

Cardiff's loss today probably puts them out of the running. With their favourable run in (4 winnable games), I fancy Ospreys to finish in the top 4.

Leinster should manage 7 minimum (71), Munster 13 (69), Ospreys 14 (67), Warriors 13 (64), Ulster 14 (64).

First place could well hang on the Munster-Scarlets game. If Munster win that they are in with a serious shout. It would mean Leinster would need to win in Newport. Otherwise a win against Edinburgh and losing bonuses in the others will be enough to allow Leinster top spot.

If Leinster were to win at the weekend, which I don't see happening, then Ospreys will likely get second. It's nigh on impossible to predict the 4th spot at the moment. But Ulster have far more tries in the bag (43 vs 24) should they end up even.

ray jay

Realistically Leinster are favourites to beat the Dragons. By the time they play them, they'll have a very good idea of how important a result is there - if they don't need the points they'll send a B team. It would be much less advantageous if their last match was against any team still in contention for a top 4 spot.

CatFromHue

Leinster 64
Munster 56
Ospreys 53
Glasgow 51

---

Ulster 50
Scarlets 50
Cardiff 45

This week:
Munster v Leinster.
Ospreys v Treviso. Ospreys should get a win here.
Ulster v Aironi. Ulster should get a bonus point win.
Glasgow v Cardiff. Not sure, I think Glasgow will win. They've also beaten them already this season.
Edinburgh v Lanelli. I'm not sure here but Edinburgh are having a shocking Pro12.

So I think all the teams below Munster will win putting the pressure on them. I do fancy Leinster this weekend too. With POC, Murray, and Ryan out Leinster should be able to get the upper hand in the second row and at scrum half. Interestingly enough Leinster are now +1 on Paddy Power, they were +2 earlier.

The table after the game I think will look like:
Leinster 68
Ospreys 57
Munster 56
Glasgow 55

---

Ulster 55

twinytwo

usually id say we would take leinster in thomond ... but with POC and Ryan gone thats our lineout gone and a lot of bite gone out of the pack

GerM

twinytwo wrote: »

usually id say we would take leinster in thomond ... but with POC and Ryan gone thats our lineout gone and a lot of bite gone out of the pack

Ah, we're not falling for it

Munster absolutely battered Leinster up front last year in Thomond for the final 30 minutes without POC or Ryan (or Botha) and with DOC, MOD and Coughlan leading the way. Nothing comes easy in Thomond and Munster are going to absolutely tear into their opponents. Leinster have several players coming back that aren't fully match fit yet. The game is on a knife edge.

irishbucsfan

Yeah guys, let's not get carried away. They'll get a losing bonus point at least!

ray jay

CatFromHue wrote: »

The table after the game I think will look like:
Leinster 68
Ospreys 57
Munster 56
Glasgow 55

---

Ulster 55

Pretty sure Ulster would be in fourth in this case due to winning more matches than Glasgow.

CatFromHue

ray jay wrote: »

Pretty sure Ulster would be in fourth in this case due to winning more matches than Glasgow.

Yup you're right. Ulster are currently ahead of Lanelli even though they've a worse points difference because they've won more games.

thomond2006

Leinster 64*
Munster 56*
Glasgow 56
Ulster 55

---

Ospreys 53*
Scarlets 51
Cardiff 45

Tommorrow:
Ospreys vs Treviso
Munster vs Leinster

durkadurka

Well Cardiff are done.
And Scarlets will need to beat Munster to have a chance I think.

thomond2006

Yup, Cardiff as good as gone. Had Scarlets won tonight it would have made the table much more interesting.

You would have to fancy the Ospreys getting a bonus point win against Treviso and moving potentially up to second.

irishbucsfan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Yup, Cardiff as good as gone. Had Scarlets won tonight it would have made the table much more interesting.

You would have to fancy the Ospreys getting a bonus point win against Treviso and moving potentially up to second.

Dunno about a bonus point, Treviso are a good team.

durkadurka

If Munster don't win tomorrow they will be under real pressure from ospreys for home semi.

Ospreys run in is pretty handy.

Conversely leinster's lead could become quite surmountable if they lose.

Podge_irl

durkadurka wrote: »

If Munster don't win tomorrow they will be under real pressure from ospreys for home semi.

And Glasgow. The Munster-Glasgow game is going to take on a fair bit of importance.

irishbucsfan

Podge_irl wrote: »

And Glasgow. The Munster-Glasgow game is going to take on a fair bit of importance.

If Munster lose to Leinster and Glasgow they'll be under pressure to make the playoffs at all. That's not something I'd ever even considered until tonight!

CatFromHue

irishbucsfan wrote: »

If Munster lose to Leinster and Glasgow they'll be under pressure to make the playoffs at all. That's not something I'd ever even considered until tonight!

Both these games are in Thomond, they also have Ulster at home on the last day of the season. I think this'll be an important game in the mix up.

phog

irishbucsfan wrote: »

If Munster lose to Leinster and Glasgow they'll be under pressure to make the playoffs at all. That's not something I'd ever even considered until tonight!

I'm giving tonights game to Leinster, with us getting a LBP, I cant see us losing to Glasgow and depending on next week's results the Ulster Rabo game could be the decider for us. If we dont make 2nd place I'd prefer to travel to Glasgow for the s/final than Dublin.

antogz1979

I'm looking at it the other way, I'll give Munster the win tonight with Leinster getting a losing bonus point. I can see Munster winning at least 2 of their last 3. I'd fancy Ulster to beat Leinster at Ravenhill was well.
I think the fight for top could be very close presuming Munster win tonight.

phog

antogz1979 wrote: »

I'm looking at it the other way, I'll give Munster the win tonight with Leinster getting a losing bonus point. I can see Munster winning at least 2 of their last 3. I'd fancy Ulster to beat Leinster at Ravenhill was well.
I think the fight for top could be very close presuming Munster win tonight.

I love your optimism and I hope you're right but as we're down a major part of our engine room for tonight I cant see where we can get decent ball.

totallegend

antogz1979 wrote: »

I'm looking at it the other way, I'll give Munster the win tonight with Leinster getting a losing bonus point. I can see Munster winning at least 2 of their last 3. I'd fancy Ulster to beat Leinster at Ravenhill was well.
I think the fight for top could be very close presuming Munster win tonight.

That is exactly how I see it happening too. A losing bp for Leinster means a five point gap which is not much when we still have to go to Ravenhill but I think a win v Edinburgh will seal top spot.

durkadurka

Ha ha a fair bit of cute hoorism going on here!

.ak

I think Treviso will parachute into Thomond and beat both teams.

.ak

... after a BP beating against Ospreys ofcourse.

thomond2006

Table:
Leinster 68
Ospreys 58
Munster 56
Glasgow 56

---

Ulster 55
Scarlets 51
Cardiff 45

RaboDirect PRO12 Remaining Games

Leinster: Edinburgh (h); Ulster (a); Dragons (a).

Munster: Warriors (h); Scarlets (a); Ulster (h).

Ospreys: Blues (a); Dragons (h); Aironi (a).

Warriors: Munster (a); Treviso (a); Connacht (h).

Ulster: Connacht (a); Leinster (h); Munster (a)

Scarlets: Aironi (a); Munster (h); Blues (h).

Blues: Ospreys (h); Edinburgh (h); Scarlets (a).

Leinster have all but secured first place. Munster's position looks pretty precarious now. Ospreys should get at least 8 points from their remaining games, same with Glasgow.

Podge_irl

Is the Munster Glasgow game in Musgrave? Very much a must win for Munster now against a bloody tough Glasgow team.

ormond lad

Podge_irl wrote: »

Is the Munster Glasgow game in Musgrave? Very much a must win for Munster now against a bloody tough Glasgow team.

Its in musgrave

jacothelad

Ulster only need to draw level with Glasgow to go through but it's a hard task given they have to play all 3 Irish provinces. Going on past experience, Ulster could get 4 points from Connacht but only 2 losing bonus points from the other two fixtures. Not enough I'm afraid. Contriving to lose away to Glasgow with 78% possession and 75% territory and blundering to a home loss to Treviso were two of the low points this season.