Supreme Novices 2012

Nulty

Didn't realise there wasn't a thread for this.

WELD OUTLINES CHOICE CONCERN

Dermot Weld is concerned Galileo's Choice doesn't have the experience for Cheltenham.

A Group Three winner on the level, he has won two of his three starts over timber with his sole defeat coming at the hands of Sous Les Cieux in the Royal Bond.

Only seen once since then, he had no trouble winning in a small field at Fairyhouse but despite him being as low as 6-1 with Ladbrokes for the Cheltenham opener, his trainer admits it could be a real eye-opener for him in the Cotswolds.

"Inexperience would be the problem with him," Weld told At The Races.

"He's a Flat horse converted to jumping and the rest of his year will be built around the Flat and inexperience will be a problem, especially around Cheltenham."

http://www.independent.ie/sport/horse-racing/cheltenham/weld-outlines-choice-concern-3041534.html

finbarrk

JP said his lad is his best chance for the week. He has shortened in the betting too since the other night in Adare. I would be concerned about that horrible fall he got a few weeks ago though.

premierstone

finbarrk wrote: »

JP said his lad is his best chance for the week. He has shortened in the betting too since the other night in Adare. I would be concerned about that horrible fall he got a few weeks ago though.

Im not so sure the fall would be my biggest concern, he got up after and finished the race, which is always a good sign that he hasnt any injury or that it hasnt put him off hes racing, my biggest fear is that he is a bridle horse and will find nothing, Supreme Novices arent exactly run to suit that type, although he is a great 'back to lay ' on the machine. Himself and Steps to Freedom will be my two against the field.

ste2010

I'm on sous les cieux 25-1 and cinders and ashes 20-1 on this race. Is SLC goes to the Neptune Darlan will become bet number 2

Jayo11780

For me the hottest race of the festival...
I'll have good e/w bet on Midnight game and I'll stick Monthbazon just to cover my arse in one of my big multiples (Heinz/Goliath) for the week.

UrbanSea

33 horses remain at the six day decs

newuser89

I don't think midnight games form is near gd enough
Doubt he will make the frame
I hope tetlami gos here
A lot of winners came out of his debut win and whatever race he gos in I expect a big run

newuser89

I didnt know he was only entered in this so I'd say hes goin
He has gone under the radar abit
Great e/w chance

tucker1971

ste2010 wrote: »

I'm on sous les cieux 25-1 and cinders and ashes 20-1 on this race. Is SLC goes to the Neptune Darlan will become bet number 2

I was interested in backing Darlan but look at some stats that say any horse that has fallen in his last run before Cheltenham has never won, that figure is combined from a total of 49 horses in the past 10 years.:(

UrbanSea

I've said it before about Darlan, it was a heavy fall he took and I would probably bypass this race.

That said, reports are very good about his well being

Nulty

tucker1971 wrote: »

I was interested in backing Darlan but look at some stats that say any horse that has fallen in his last run before Cheltenham has never won, that figure is combined from a total of 49 horses in the past 10 years.:(

How many of those were favorite 6 days before the race? You need to look more closely at those statistics before drawing a conclusion

finbarrk

tucker1971 wrote: »

I was interested in backing Darlan but look at some stats that say any horse that has fallen in his last run before Cheltenham has never won, that figure is combined from a total of 49 horses in the past 10 years.:(

Intresting statistic, if true. It makes me think twice about backing him now. Any link for it?

Sammo13

finbarrk wrote: »

tucker1971 wrote: »

I was interested in backing Darlan but look at some stats that say any horse that has fallen in his last run before Cheltenham has never won, that figure is combined from a total of 49 horses in the past 10 years.:(

Intresting statistic, if true. It makes me think twice about backing him now. Any link for it?

Darlan looks a fair fav, battled to win his other race, not necessarily a bridle horse, don't let stats put you off, if he was Irish he' d be 5/2. Supreme is a hard race to call, don't like any of the Irish trained, cinders is interesting..

Hoofer

its a difficult supreme this year..im caught between midnight game and steps to freedom and allure of illusion if he runs(hel improve alot on better ground)..those 3 horses im concentrating on before the off when ill take a good look at them in the ring and then watch them canter down and see how they look, need to find which one will be bulging, composed, neck tucked into shoulders, no sweating and a good shine..thats the key..you can really see it in willies when they are ready to run for their life..dont forget though alot can happen between now and next week most importantly the travelling over and eating up..

RichieLawlor

Tetlami

Nulty

Cinders and Ashes

UrbanSea

Kayto Star

Goldcupfav

Tetlami

Johner

I'm on Cinders and Ashes at a nice e/w price.

Nulty

Johner wrote: »

I'm on Cinders and Ashes at a nice e/w price.

I don't want to know, it would depress me.

Lets hope he goes and does it.

UrbanSea

How nice Johner

Johner

20/1.

ste2010

Nulty wrote: »

tucker1971 wrote: »

I was interested in backing Darlan but look at some stats that say any horse that has fallen in his last run before Cheltenham has never won, that figure is combined from a total of 49 horses in the past 10 years.:(

How many of those were favorite 6 days before the race? You need to look more closely at those statistics before drawing a conclusion

I think only 2 favourites have won in past 10 years. Brave inca being one can't think who te other is

RichieLawlor

ste2010 wrote: »

I think only 2 favourites have won in past 10 years. Brave inca being one can't think who te other is

Back in Front was, Hor Le Hoi maybe, Like a butterfly was short aswell

Colonel Sanders

Betfair suggests he's not certain to run but I've been waiting all year to see Colour Squadron get a breakneck gallop in a decent size field

I respect the Hobbs stable from a shrewd punting angle & this lad has been punted off the boards each run against decent opposition.

Tough race to get involved in heavily as there is little to measure the UK horses v the Irish aside from the November meeting novice hurdle. Steps To Freedom hasn't run since & the forms been let down by those that have.

Colonel Sanders

Colour Squadron not mentioned in Hobbs interview in today's RP

Probably NR so. Let's hope the fall last time out hasn't done any lasting damage

Colonel Sanders

ste2010 wrote: »

Nulty wrote: »

tucker1971 wrote: »

I was interested in backing Darlan but look at some stats that say any horse that has fallen in his last run before Cheltenham has never won, that figure is combined from a total of 49 horses in the past 10 years.:(

How many of those were favorite 6 days before the race? You need to look more closely at those statistics before drawing a conclusion

I think only 2 favourites have won in past 10 years. Brave inca being one can't think who te other is

Like A butterfly in 02

Back In Front in 03

Brave Inca in 04

Were all short priced winning jollies

Colonel Sanders

Some notable losing jollies also

Sweet Wake
Amaretto Rose
Cousin Vinny
Dunguib
Cue Card

Can't remember for the life of me who went off fav in 08....

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Colour Squadron not mentioned in Hobbs interview in today's RP

Probably NR so. Let's hope the fall last time out hasn't done any lasting damage

Ignore this. My eyesight is obviously failing in my old age!

Johner

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Some notable losing jollies also

Sweet Wake
Amaretto Rose
Cousin Vinny
Dunguib
Cue Card

Can't remember for the life of me who went off fav in 08....

Think that was when Captain Cee Bee beat Binocular, was Binocular favourite?

Colonel Sanders

Johner wrote: »

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Some notable losing jollies also

Sweet Wake
Amaretto Rose
Cousin Vinny
Dunguib
Cue Card

Can't remember for the life of me who went off fav in 08....

Think that was when Captain Cee Bee beat Binocular, was Binocular favourite?

Good call. Think it was around 7/1 the field

RichieLawlor

Sweet Wake was the best traveller ive ever seen, i was all over him that year, some hype merchant i am

tonic wine

tucker1971 wrote: »

I was interested in backing Darlan but look at some stats that say any horse that has fallen in his last run before Cheltenham has never won, that figure is combined from a total of 49 horses in the past 10 years.:(

Another stat is JP mcManus is on a losing sequence of 45 runners at the festival. His last winner was Binocular in the 2010 champion hurdle.

He gave Darlan his nap of festival at adare preview.

hucklebuck

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Good call. Think it was around 7/1 the field

Think they were co favourites but they finished 1,2.

Raging I had loads on Binocular ew and then got a call from a mate who had got word about Cee Bee from the yard that morning and I was convinced Binocular was gonna win so left it alone due to the amount I had on Binocular.

Sick as a pig sitting in the pub being the only one of my mates who was in to racing watching my bet go down when they all celebrated and gloated, then I heard choc got done for overuse of the whip on Cee Bee :mad:

Next race I punted on was the Champion Hurdle, all over Osana ew and he gets beaten by Katchit, again Choc on the winner and again done for overuse!!

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Sweet Wake was the best traveller ive ever seen

Have to disagree, Blackie Connors for me :pac:

UnitedIrishman

On Montbazon/Trifolium in this. A winning start to the festival would be alright!

hucklebuck

All over Midnight Game, if Davy takes the ride and the ground is right I will go in again.

prettyboy81

Steps Too Freedom for me.....won't be going mad in this race!

Colonel Sanders

Midnight Game didn't work well today according to Willie tonight at the preview

MoscowFlyer

Steps to Freedom is actually one of my strongest fancies of the festival. Hopefully the heavy rain stays away but if it's relatively good going then he has every chance, he won round here back in Nov.

Nulty

Any other interesting news form the Preview Colonel?

There shouldn't be any problem with heavy rain! Cheltenham is due a grand total of 0.6mm of precipitation between now and next Wednesday.

mccarte2

Am on Cinders and Ashes at 25's.

Expect Distant Memories to run a big race at a massive price too.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Any other interesting news form the Preview Colonel?

There shouldn't be any problem with heavy rain! Cheltenham is due a grand total of 0.6mm of precipitation between now and next Wednesday.

Two words, Boston Bob!

Willie was keeping his cards close to his chest about which race but I thought nearer the end he seemed to think 3 miler. Said Ruby got off him the other day & said he'll win whichever race he goes in. Willie says he's as good a horse as they've ever sent over. Interestingly Segal & Bromley liked Mount Benbulben to reverse form but Russell said MB had zero chance of beating BB

hucklebuck

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Midnight Game didn't work well today according to Willie tonight at the preview

He is a sarcastic auld sausage our Mr Mullins, probably trying to keep the price inflated for me

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Two words, Boston Bob!

Willie was keeping his cards close to his chest about which race but I thought nearer the end he seemed to think 3 miler. Said Ruby got off him the other day & said he'll win whichever race he goes in. Willie says he's as good a horse as they've ever sent over. Interestingly Segal & Bromley liked Mount Benbulben to reverse form but Russell said MB had zero chance of beating BB

Segal is a joker. He was all over Boston Bob at the Waterford preview and they showed the Mount Benbulben race on the screen and he insta jumped ship.

He said it was the first time he saw it and just by looking at a 5 second clip he changed his mind.

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Two words, Boston Bob!

Willie was keeping his cards close to his chest about which race but I thought nearer the end he seemed to think 3 miler. Said Ruby got off him the other day & said he'll win whichever race he goes in. Willie says he's as good a horse as they've ever sent over. Interestingly Segal & Bromley liked Mount Benbulben to reverse form but Russell said MB had zero chance of beating BB

And Russell said in Waterford that Boston Bob had no chance in the Sun Alliance Hurdle. He was adamant that he wouldn't win. But would win the 3 miler

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

And Russell said in Waterford that Boston Bob had no chance in the Sun Alliance Hurdle. He was adamant that he wouldn't win. But would win the 3 miler

Ah here Richie get with the times, the Sun alliance how are ya

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Ah here Richie get with the times, the Sun alliance how are ya

Stupid name changes.

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Stupid name changes.

I look forward to about 15 years time when the 2m race on the Wednesday will be known as the ''Sprinter Sacre Champion Chase''

convert

Given that some users removed some of their posts, I've deleted the rest of the posts which dealt with that topic as they didn't make sense. C.

Nulty

Distant Memories interests me at 50/1 with 4 places with Bet Victor. He was keen on heavy ground at Naas on his last start and blundered the second last. He was rated 113 at his best on the flat. The last flat horse to win the Supreme was Arcalis in 2005. That was a pretty weak race and this looks very open. Arcalis also finished 3rd on his last start before he won. Trainer Tom Taaffe has a great record at Cheltenham in the past 5 years 2-11 (18%) and rider Andrew Lynch has an equally impressive record 6-34 (18%). They have LSPs of 14.00 and 31.25 respectively implying that they are under bet at the track. These two should not be underestimated at Cheltenham and in such an open race it looks an exccellent opportunity to test the pairs.

Distant Memories 1pt ew @ 50/1 (4 Places)