Grand National

Yeah Yeah Yeah

I got a real good feeling that Ballabrigs will win the national again.

Currently 16's with ladbrokes, but no doubt better value to be had elsewhere.

Must check out Bet Fair....

UrbanSea

He'll probably be carrying top weight. Not for me

Yeah Yeah Yeah

Right enough, but hes a good genuine sort...whos your fancy Urban Sea?

to be honest, I had him on a 5 timer, last horse to come in, paid for family hoiliday, so have soft spot all right.

I'll never forget the commentators words "this looks like a national horse", and so I did him in the national, paid for the missus to go out on a few girrls nights out...

jjll

thought ballabrigs was out for season seem to remember was it yesterday or day before

ha im wrong must been thinking of something else

UrbanSea

Must have been a nice five timer. I'm not sure yet, I was sweet last year on Backstage, this year Chicago Grey really catches the eye. Was thinking of backing Treacle,I backed him when he was second in the Paddy Power at Christmas. 40/1 was available until Tom Segal tipped him

gnella

some stats to chew over guys


10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-6

7yo: 0-0-22

8yo: 1-7-66

9yo: 3-8-111

10yo: 5-6-92

11yo: 0-9-69

12yo: 1-0-26

13yo+: 0-0-7

Every winner since WWII (1946) has been aged 8 to 12

8 of 10 winners (including last 7) have been aged 9 or 10 (7-14-198)

In the past 7 years all 28 places were filled by horses aged 8 to 11

The only horse aged older than 11 to win this since 2002 was Amberleigh House who was placed in previous year’s race and had finished 1st or 2nd in previous 3 Becher Chases.

No horse aged below 8 or above 12 has made the frame in the past 10 years (0-0-39)



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 6-17-172

Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 4-13-227

In recent years with the weights being more closely bunched, higher weights have done better with the 14 of 16 places in the past 4 years being filled by horses carrying 10-11 or more.

8 of 10 winners were initially allotted a weight of between 10-5 and 11-0 on publication of National weights.

10 of 10 winners carried no more than a stone higher than the bottom weight

Top Weight: F0FP290UF3 (0-2-10)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 144 or higher: 4-15-149

Horses rated 143 or lower: 6-15-250

In recent years the trend has swung towards higher rated runners.

In last 3 years

Horses rated 144 or higher: 3-8-74

Horses rated 143 or lower: 0-1-46



Breeding

Irish bred: 9-19-227

French bred: 1-5-100

British bred: 0-6-64

Other: 0-0-8

Mon Mome became the first French bred since 1909 to win the Grand National when landing the race in 2009.

However Irish bred horses have the best record having won 9 of the last 10 and filled in 28 of 40 places (70%) from approximately 56.9% of the total runners.

Our Vic has sired 16 National runners in 4 renewals in past 10 years, with a record of 2-3-16.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season

8 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 exceptions had won a class 2 chase worth 30K+)

9 of 10 (last 9) had won a chase worth 29K+

10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times since Sept 1

10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+

10 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases

9 of 10 winners had won 3 to 5 chases

7 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 12 handicap chases

8 of 10 winners (last 8) had won 1 to 3 handicap chases

7 of 10 winners (last 5) were 3rd or 4th season chasers

Only 2 second season chasers have won this in past 10 years, Bindaree (a grade 1 winner over hurdles) and Numbersixvalverde (won the Thyestes and Irish Grand National the previous season)

9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track

10 of 10 winners had their last run since National weights were announced (past 50 days)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 140+ on 1 of last 3 chase starts

8 of 10 winners (all 4 Irish-trained winners) had a run over hurdles in January, February or March



Course form

Previous Year's winner (Ballabriggs): 64026203 (0-4-8)

Becher Chase winner (West End Rocker): 92PPPFUP (0-1-8)

Previous season's Becher Chase winner (Hello Bud): 7CF2B (0-1-5)

Becher Chase winner two seasons ago (Vic Venturi): 131P (2-1-4)

Topham Chase winner (Always Waining): 25F (0-1-3)

Grand Sefton Chase winner (Stewarts House): 5 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners had previously run over the National fences

2 of 10 winners had won over the National fences, both in the Becher Chase 2 seasons previous

4 of 10 winners had run in previous season's Grand National, finishing 3FF0

3 of 10 winners had run in a Topham Chase, finishing 429

7 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Aintree National meeting (4 in GN, 2 in Topham & 1 in John Smith's H'cap Chase), 1 exception won previous season's Irish National, 1 won the Kim Muir and other exception didn’t race the previous season



Other Nationals

Previous season's Irish National winner (Organisedconfusion): FU1FFFP0 (1-0-8)

Welsh National winner (Le Beau Bai): UP (0-0-2)

Previous season's Welsh National winner (Synchronised): 20F (0-1-3)

Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 1P (1-0-2)

Previous season's Kerry National winner (Alfa Beat): 4 (0-1-1)

6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in the Irish, Welsh, or Aintree Grand Nationals

5 of 10 winners had run in a Welsh National, finishing 331P2

2 of 10 winners had run in an Irish National, finishing 01

2 of 10 winners had run in a Scottish National, finishing P9



Other Races

Previous John Smith's H'cap Chase winner (Prince De Beauchene): 471 (1-1-3)

Eider Chase winner: 1 (1-0-1)

Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase winner (Shakalakaboomboom): F1U (1-0-3)

Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Junior): F671 (1-0-4)

Bobbyjo Chase winner: U1PUU6 (1-0-6)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): 4 (0-1-1)

Cashel Chase winner (In Compliance): 00 (0-0-2)

Argento Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 0U (0-0-2)

Sky Bet Chase winner (Calgary Bay): F6 (0-0-2)

London National winner (Deep Purple): PF (0-0-2)

Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase winner (According To Pete): PP (0-0-2)

Peter Marsh Chase winner (According To Pete): U8 (0-0-2)

Pat Taaffe H'cap Chase winner (Shakalakaboomboom): FU (0-0-2)

Thyestes winner (On His Own): FP0 (0-0-3)

Racing Plus Chase winner: FFP (0-0-3)

Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Giles Cross): PF5P (0-0-4)

Bet With Your Mobile At Victor Chandler Chase winner (Calgary Bay): PPFF (0-0-4)

Leopardstown H'cap Chase winner (Seabass): UPPF (0-0-4)

Haydock Grand National Trial winner (Giles Cross): PF5P0 (0-0-5)

3 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in a Hennessy Gold Cup

2 of 10 winners had won the previous season’s Thyestes Chase



Racing Tactics

6 of 10 winners raced prominently

1 of 10 winners raced in mid-division

3 of 10 winners were held up



Trainers

4 of 10 winners were trained in Ireland (4-9-92) from approximately 23% of the total runners.

Trainers who have won the race in the past 10 years and have entries this year are:

Jonjo O’Neill (1-3-20), Willie Mullins (1-2-18), David Pipe (1-1-17), Gordon Elliot (1-0-4), Donald McCain (1-0-7), Venetia Williams (1-0-10) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-25).

Evan Williams (0-3-3) have saddled State Of Play to place in the last 3 runnings.

Paul Nicholls (0-3-37) and Tom Taaffe (0-2-3) have also saddled multiple placed horses.

Trainers with very poor records in the race in the past decade include:

Philip Hobbs (0-1-9), Peter Bowen (0-1-7) and Nicky Henderson (0-0-9).



Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 20/1 or below.

There have been 2 big shocks in the past decade: a 33/1 winner in 2007 and a 100/1 winner in 2009.

8 of 10 winners were priced between 25/1 and 40/1 at publication of weights

Favourites (3-5-18) have gained 3 wins in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes profit of 7.50.



Summary:



Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:



· Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially)

· Carrying 10-11 or more

· Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight

· Officially rated 144 or higher

· Irish bred (Our Vic progeny do well)


· Finished in first 5 on last completed start

· Won no more than one chase this season

· Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+

· Won over 3M+

· Run 3 to 6 times since September 2011 & run since 15th February

· Run in at least 10 chases (winning 3 to 5)

· Posted an RPR of 140+ in one of last 3 chase starts

· Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track

· Has run over hurdles in 2012

· Finished in first 4 in a previous Topham, Becher or Aintree Grand National

· Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National

· Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup

· Trained in Ireland

· Priced 20/1 or below

Yeah Yeah Yeah

Cheers lads...

The upcoming 4:10 at Kelso should tella tale for Ballabrigs,..I havent checked the tissue, but I'm thinking this might be the race that Ballabrigs lifted for me last year...

Cheers lads chat to ya.

Yeah Yeah Yeah

Good run at Kelso, Ballabrigs now 12's Ladbrokes, 15's bet Fair, 16's Bill Hill's.

Might get better odds in a week or so.

jjll

Yeah Yeah Yeah wrote: »

Good run at Kelso, Ballabrigs now 12's Ladbrokes, 15's bet Fair, 16's Bill Hill's.

Might get better odds in a week or so.

did he win or was he looked after????

Yeah Yeah Yeah

jjll wrote: »

did he win or was he looked after????

Ran a good race, didnt win, but wasnt pushed or expected to do so, a practice run...he's an honest stayer..OK it's the National, i cringe at the thought of the race, and of any horse getting hurt, but if he doesnt get intereferd with he's gonna be in the frame, and in my opinion, Winner.:D

TheMilkyPirate

prince de beauchene for me

Yeah Yeah Yeah

baraca wrote: »

prince de beauchene for me

Have you put a bet on ante post? Price? Good luck:D

AngryBollix

Might go e\w on sunnyhillboy

shangri la

I would prefer to take a match bet on this race. Better to win at 10/11 than lose at 10/1.

Pj!

shangri la wrote: »

Better to win at 10/11 than lose at 10/1.

If you take that stance before every bet you'll get no where.

Gavin "shels"

gnella wrote: »

Summary:



Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:



· Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially)

· Carrying 10-11 or more

· Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight

· Officially rated 144 or higher

· Irish bred (Our Vic progeny do well)


· Finished in first 5 on last completed start

· Won no more than one chase this season

· Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+

· Won over 3M+

· Run 3 to 6 times since September 2011 & run since 15th February

· Run in at least 10 chases (winning 3 to 5)

· Posted an RPR of 140+ in one of last 3 chase starts

· Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track

· Has run over hurdles in 2012

· Finished in first 4 in a previous Topham, Becher or Aintree Grand National

· Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National

· Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup

· Trained in Ireland

· Priced 20/1 or below

Anyone like to pick out the horses which fit some of these stats?

TheMilkyPirate

Gavin "shels" wrote: »

gnella wrote: »

Summary:



Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:



· Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially)

· Carrying 10-11 or more

· Carrying no more than 14lbs higher than bottom weight

· Officially rated 144 or higher

· Irish bred (Our Vic progeny do well)


· Finished in first 5 on last completed start

· Won no more than one chase this season

· Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+

· Won over 3M+

· Run 3 to 6 times since September 2011 & run since 15th February

· Run in at least 10 chases (winning 3 to 5)

· Posted an RPR of 140+ in one of last 3 chase starts

· Posted highest RPR at a left-handed track

· Has run over hurdles in 2012

· Finished in first 4 in a previous Topham, Becher or Aintree Grand National

· Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National

· Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup

· Trained in Ireland

· Priced 20/1 or below

Anyone like to pick out the horses which fit some of these stats?

Chicago grey

Gavin "shels"

baraca wrote: »

Chicago grey

Really? A fan of Elliot and usually back his horses in big races.:cool:

TheMilkyPirate

Gavin shels wrote: »

Really? A fan of Elliot and usually back his horses in big races.:cool:

Yeah nearly all of them except for these:

· Finished in first 4 in a previous Topham, Becher or Aintree Grand National

· Finished in first 3 in a previous Welsh National

· Finished in first 5 in a previous Hennessy Gold Cup

And this

Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+

Although he did win a novice chase at the festival worth 40k+