Can Lance win Kona?

BennyMul

an interesting article on the numbers it takes to win Kona.

http://53x12.com/do/show?page=article&id=110

MrCreosote

Are we doing predictions already?

Mine is: He won't start at Kona after getting injured in the summer.

griffin100

My prediction........

He'll be in the top three off the bike and onto the run course.......he'll get caught midway around the run pushing him into fourth......he'll then drop out due to injury (nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that he may have to take a test if he finishes outside of the top three).

tunney

Can we have this thread locked and the OP banned please MCOS?

BennyMul

tunney wrote: »

Can we have this thread locked and the OP banned please MCOS?

OP ??:o sorry for been stupid

tunney

BennyMul wrote: »

OP ??:o sorry for been stupid

Look at the mini marathon thread in the main ART board. That will seem logical and well balance and sane compared to how this thread will go by lunch time

tunney

To clarify, my original comment was a joke.

tunney

BennyMul wrote: »

an interesting article on the numbers it takes to win Kona.

http://53x12.com/do/show?page=article&id=110

Out with the second pack. Of swimmers.

Himself and Lieto ride away from everyone.

Gets run down by one of the Raelert brothers with 6 miles to go. Finished >15 minutes off the lead.

BennyMul

tunney wrote: »

To clarify, my original comment was a joke.

at this stage of my aging life im not sensitive.


as for predictions dont know enough about the field to make an informed call.
However if he gets to the start line, he will be ready to compete for a top spot.
can he do it all will be known after IM France,

Notwitch

griffin100 wrote: »

My prediction........
(nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that he may have to take a test if he finishes outside of the top three).

I don't get this part of the discussion that's going on, maybe i'm naive. Surely he would be one of the most stupid people around if he was to use peds at this stage in his career - chasing a kona podium. Would it not be like David Beckham being caught using peds in order to help his side win the masters 5 a side competitions you try to avoid on sky sports in a winters evening??!

Bambaata

Im with you on that to an extent Notwitch but what i see some people suggesting is that if he did have years of PED's his body would be at a place it shouldn't be even now. This case will never close so people are always going to doubt him. Even if he didnt use the PEDs during his career he certainly had a massive amount pumped into him through his cancer and who knows this could have altered his body so much that once he recovered his body maintained the benefits of those drugs for his cancer battle.

griffin100

Notwitch wrote: »

I don't get this part of the discussion that's going on, maybe i'm naive. Surely he would be one of the most stupid people around if he was to use peds at this stage in his career - chasing a kona podium. Would it not be like David Beckham being caught using peds in order to help his side win the masters 5 a side competitions you try to avoid on sky sports in a winters evening??!

It was a tounge in cheek comment really. Do I think he currently takes PEDs? No, unless he's used his millions of dollars to develop new ones that can't be detected Do I personally think he has taken them in the past? My belief, yes ( there are also some questions about the benefits of his cancer treatment). It's a hard sell to try and suggest he was the only clean winner of the tdf in the last 20 years. Passing drug tests does not mean that you don't take PEDS e.g. Millar never failed a drug test. Armstrong spent long enough working with Ferarrai to make him suspect. As was stated in a different thread, you don't loose the benefits of using PEDs when you stop using them.

But back to the OP's question, I think Tunney has it pretty spot on.

elvis jones

tunney wrote: »

To clarify, my original comment was a joke.

Would a woman have made that joke, well would she :mad:

shotgunmcos

LOL

My prediction is that he will emerge amongst the top 15 in the swim, whereapon Tunney will smash stuff with rage. Then he will move up to top 5 on the bike and Tunney will become violently ill. This will evolve into a spectacular fade on the run and he will be 'chicked' by most of the PRO women's field. Tunney will become increasingly delerious as he counts each age grouper that passes him over the last 10k....

He will jump for joy when it turns out the Lance is beaten by the top Irish AGer.

He will then return to being sick as Lance hogs every interview on every media for a week...

tunney

elvis jones wrote: »

Would a woman have made that joke, well would she :mad:

If she did ye would all have to laugh anyways, even if you didn't find it funny.

tunney

shotgunmcos wrote: »

LOL

My prediction is that he will emerge amongst the top 15 in the swim, whereapon Tunney will smash stuff with rage. Then he will move up to top 5 on the bike and Tunney will become violently ill. This will evolve into a spectacular fade on the run and he will be 'chicked' by most of the PRO women's field. Tunney will become increasingly delerious as he counts each age grouper that passes him over the last 10k....

He will jump for joy when it turns out the Lance is beaten by the top Irish AGer.

He will then return to being sick as Lance hogs every interview on every media for a week...

I would expect him to be leading the bike by 90km. Lieto and himself going for a 1-2 Team Trek bike splits. So we don't disagree.

I also said I expected him to be second back out of the water. Which would be well with the top 15 as you say. So we still haven't disagreed.

Where we disagree is you seem to think he will blow worse than I think he will. I think he will post a top ten finish. 15 minutes or so after the winner but still a top ten. I do not think he will be chicked as I think in Chrissie's absence there will be alot less of PROs being chicked.

shotgunmcos

tunney wrote: »

I would expect him to be leading the bike by 90km. Lieto and himself going for a 1-2 Team Trek bike splits. So we don't disagree.

I also said I expected him to be second back out of the water. Which would be well with the top 15 as you say. So we still haven't disagreed.

Where we disagree is you seem to think he will blow worse than I think he will. I think he will post a top ten finish. 15 minutes or so after the winner but still a top ten. I do not think he will be chicked as I think in Chrissie's absence there will be alot less of PROs being chicked.

Ah I was poking. Did you not sense the progressing farce of my theory Being passed by an Emerald a clue

I agree himself and Lieto working to put more distance on the rest than Lieto could do alone. Top 10 would be a big ask though. Be interesting to see how he gets on in whatever QF race he does

tunney

shotgunmcos wrote: »

Ah I was poking. Did you not sense the progressing farce of my theory Being passed by an Emerald a clue

I agree himself and Lieto working to put more distance on the rest than Lieto could do alone. Top 10 would be a big ask though. Be interesting to see how he gets on in whatever QF race he does

Top Irish AGer in Kona will not be an Emerald.

pgibbo

shotgunmcos wrote: »

Be interesting to see how he gets on in whatever QF race he does

Nice at the moment. It will be interesting to see how l'Equipe cover it.

couerdelion

pgibbo wrote: »

Nice at the moment. It will be interesting to see how l'Equipe cover it.

Do you think the amount of coverage he may get from the French press was one of the reasons he chose France?

catweazle

couerdelion wrote: »

Do you think the amount of coverage he may get from the French press was one of the reasons he chose France?

In fairness to him there I remember reading an interview with him a year or two ago and he did mention Nice would be a likely race if he ever went into Ironman as the difficulty of the bike there would give him an advantage

Bambaata

That and he's probably rubbing salt in the wounds of the French ;-)

tunney

Bambaata wrote: »

That and he's probably rubbing salt in the wounds of the French ;-)

Just thought of something. Someone could enter and since its a mass start could start next to Armstrong and just thumb the sh1t out of him and put it down to "hey its a mass swim start"

hardCopy

catweazle wrote: »

couerdelion wrote: »

Do you think the amount of coverage he may get from the French press was one of the reasons he chose France?

In fairness to him there I remember reading an interview with him a year or two ago and he did mention Nice would be a likely race if he ever went into Ironman as the difficulty of the bike there would give him an advantage

Doesn't he also have a house in Nice?

mloc123

If Lance can beat cancer he can beat anything, a couple of splash, cycle, plod triathletes won't get in his way.

griffin100

tunney wrote: »

Just thought of something. Someone could enter and since its a mass start could start next to Armstrong and just thumb the sh1t out of him and put it down to "hey its a mass swim start"

I'm starting a send Tunney To Nice 2012 campaign here and now. All donations gratefully received.

Do you think the amount of coverage he may get from the French press was one of the reasons he chose France?

I'd say it's probably because he can get up the hills of IM France much quicker than others and this will give him a head start on the run.

couerdelion

griffin100 wrote: »

I'd say it's probably because he can get up the hills of IM France much quicker than others and this will give him a head start on the run.

catweazle wrote: »

In fairness to him there I remember reading an interview with him a year or two ago and he did mention Nice would be a likely race if he ever went into Ironman as the difficulty of the bike there would give him an advantage

Thanks. Never thought of it like that, just think the worse of people sometimes