Could this spell the start of the end for FF

raymon

In the latest poll it looks like Michael Martins personal rating has dropped sharply, while FF remains to lose support due to it's widespread unpopularity

Their brand of whinge politics does not seem to be working.

The bad news is that Sinn Fein is making huge gains

http://rte.ie/news/2012/0225/politics.html

Hopefully this spells the start of end of FF

southsiderosie

raymon wrote: »

In the latest poll it looks like Michael Martin personal rating has dropped sharply, while FF remains to lose support due to it's widespread unpopularity

The bad news is that Sinn Fein is making huge gains

rte.ie/news/2012/0225/politics.html

Hopefully this spells the start of end of FF

Hmm, I think this poll should have Eamon Gilmore more worried than Martin!

FF
General election 17.6%
Now - 16%

Labour
General Election - 19.6%
Now - 10%

Sinn Fein
General Election 9.9%
Now - 25%

This actually looks like Labour is losing vote share to SF, not FF

mikemac1

Government junior partner taking a beating as usual

yosser hughes

raymon wrote: »

In the latest poll it looks like Michael Martin personal rating has dropped sharply, while FF remains to lose support due to it's widespread unpopularity

The bad news is that Sinn Fein is making huge gains

http://rte.ie/news/2012/0225/politics.html

Hopefully this spells the start of end of FF

FF should have been finished after bringing the country to the point that the IMF had to be called in. That is the ultimate failure. That along with their traditional corruption and cronyism that has been their stock in trade for my entire life that has led the country to the brink of bankruptcy on more than one occasion is reason enough for their demise.
However people still voted for them and almost voted that FF'er Gallagher in to the Aras. Never underestimate the unsophisticated,parochial,insular electorate in this country.
They should be dead and buried,but they're not.
SF getting the votes with empty promises and vague barstool republicanism is basically what FF have been doing for decades.

Manach

Labour, dealing with economic issues is one aspect but they seem to have a rare inability to turn the handling of minor social mis-steps into PR storms.

spank_inferno

I agree.... the numbers are not that bad for FF (all things considered)

Its the Labour party thats haemoraging support.

The SF figure does look very soft though, I doubt it would translate on a given election day.

What is certain though, Sinn Fein are now the de-facto opposition in the Dail.

Dob74

Heard an ad for tomorrows spindo. John Drennan cliaming that this was the best government we have ever had
Doing there best to prop up the gov til FF get there house in order.

SF are the only real opposition party no surprise to see them doing so well.

would be great to see the end of FF

namelessguy

spank_inferno wrote: »

I agree.... the numbers are not that bad for FF (all things considered)

Its the Labour party thats haemoraging support.

The SF figure does look very soft though, I doubt it would translate on a given election day.

What is certain though, Sinn Fein are now the de-facto opposition in the Dail.

I'd never vote for FF but I'm disappointed with FG and Lab. SF are looking like the only viable alternative. It could happen.

the groutch

You'd have to take that poll with a very large pinch of salt.
Their previous one had SF on 21% already, so it's methodology would be questionable. And there's a 3.3% margin of error.

That said, I hope it is a continuing trend, with SF emmerging as the main opposition.

bmaxi

It makes my flesh creep to think that SF will ever form part of a government in this State but at this stage it looks inevitable. Labour deserve no better than what they are getting, they have betrayed their constituency. I would have expected no different from FG, even in good times they would have behaved the same way.

raymon

southsiderosie wrote: »

Hmm, I think this poll should have Eamon Gilmore more worried than Martin!

FF
General election 17.6%
Now - 16%

Labour
General Election - 19.6%
Now - 10%

Sinn Fein
General Election 9.9%
Now - 25%

This actually looks like Labour is losing vote share to SF, not FF

Comparing the poll in December , FF is down 4 . Michael Martin is down 7%.

However Labour is not doing well either for sure.

Sierra Oscar

All polls have had FF consistently on 16 - 18%, so nothing new in that regards.

FF will not start to rise until after the organisation has been reformed, and a lot is riding on next weekends Ard Fheis.

Also, if you think FF were bad wait until you see SF in government! Although on the other hand, if SF were to enter government tomorrow the party would be obliterated at a subsequent election.

RandomName2

Although I would be biased, I nonetheless doubt the findings of the poll.

If the worst comes to the worst and Sinn Fein really are ahead, I wouldn't be of the opinion that they should be "given enough rope to hang themselves." Russia and Germany suffered considerably from the fringe political nut-jobs getting their foot in the door.

Sierra Oscar

RandomName2 wrote: »

Although I would be biased, I nonetheless doubt the findings of the poll.

If the worst comes to the worst and Sinn Fein really are ahead, I wouldn't be of the opinion that they should be "given enough rope to hang themselves." Russia and Germany suffered considerably from the fringe political nut-jobs getting their foot in the door.

Well the sample size is 900 and has a margin of error of 3.3%, so it is questionable.

The poll to watch will be next weekends RedC poll - that will give us a very accurate picture as to the position of the political parties one year on from the GE.

rOBeRt frETt

completely disillusioned with party politics - it's all one giant reach around.
meanwhile they're starting the firesale on our countries assests- most of FF should have been jailed let alone reformed - next victim!

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

All polls have had FF consistently on 16 - 18%, so nothing new in that regards.

FF will not start to rise until after the organisation has been reformed, and a lot is riding on next weekends Ard Fheis.

Also, if you think FF were bad wait until you see SF in government! Although on the other hand, if SF were to enter government tomorrow the party would be obliterated at a subsequent election.

Not true

Their last S&A poll was 20% in Dec for the times

Comparing apples with apples this represents 4% drop for FF

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

Not true

Their last S&A poll was 20% in Dec for the times

Comparing apples with apples this represents 4% drop for FF

And I am comparing them to regular polls, such as the RedC, which has had FF on 16%.

There is nothing new in this - we all knew FF was not on 20%. It certainly is not a surprise to FF members anyways, who are not really even expecting the party to be all that much north of 20% a year from now.

smcgiff

SF would say anything if they thought it would be received well by the public at large - getting power is what matters.

They would be a disaster for the country. That Mary Lou one makes my skin crawl. They will always put their indoctrinated ideology above all else, but we wouldn't be the first country to let such a party rule them, especially in difficult times.

Border-Rat

smcgiff wrote: »

SF would say anything if they thought it would be received well by the public at large - getting power is what matters.

They would be a disaster for the country. That Mary Lou one makes my skin crawl. They will always put their indoctrinated ideology above all else, but we wouldn't be the first country to let such a party rule them, especially in difficult times.

Lol. Yes, because this isn't the mantra of FF or FG. Only Sinn Fein. :rolleyes:

Good loser

FF will have to let another few years ellapse before they can regain their voters.

Their simple minded oppositional politics at the moment (M Martin ?) is doing them no favours.

I'd say if they had supported nearly every Govt initiative for the first three years and then drifted away to opposition - more in sorrow than anger - they would maximise their support at next election.

smcgiff

Border-Rat wrote: »

Lol. Yes, because this isn't the mantra of FF or FG. Only Sinn Fein. :rolleyes:

I agree - it's just that sf are so good at it.

Border-Rat

smcgiff wrote: »

I agree - it's just that sf are so good at it.

If they're so good at it, they'd be in power. FG are using, according to you, the same dogma. Care to explain that fallacy or are you just vehemently anyone-but-SF?

dvpower

namelessguy wrote: »

SF are looking like the only viable alternative. It could happen.

SF and who?

smcgiff

Border-Rat wrote: »

or are you just vehemently anyone-but-SF?

In case there is ANY doubt I'm most certainly anyone but Sf.

And as for not being in government, to be fair to sf it's going to take time to fully transform from the mouthpiece of a murderous terrorist organisation.

Also, no matter how slick they are I'm hoping there's enough sanity in the Irish yet.

Border-Rat

smcgiff wrote: »

In case there is ANY doubt I'm most certainly anyone but Sf.

And as for not being in government, to be fair to sf it's going to take time to fully transform from the mouthpiece of a murderous terrorist organisation.

Also, no matter how slick they are I'm hoping there's enough sanity in the Irish yet.

This rant doesn't answer the question. You insinuate that Sinn Fein and Fine Gael flip-flop and lie to gain power. But you say that Sinn Fein are better at it, yet they're not in power. So evidently, by your own logic, FG are more guilty of this.

Personally, I love this news. It turns the face of partitionists beet-red with anger. Partitionists, little Englanders etc.

RandomName2

Border-Rat wrote: »

Partitionists, little Englanders etc.

Enough of that, thanks.

smcgiff

Br,

I don't follow your logic, and I'm certainly not going to waste any time trying to.

You don't have look to the roi for partitisionists - what with a large majority (incl. Catholics) of the population of NI being so inclined.

I'm very much in favour of a UI, but only with the majority support of those within the six counties. And thats less likely with a sf in my opinion.

washman3

smcgiff wrote: »

SF would say anything if they thought it would be received well by the public at large - getting power is what matters.

They would be a disaster for the country. That Mary Lou one makes my skin crawl. They will always put their indoctrinated ideology above all else, but we wouldn't be the first country to let such a party rule them, especially in difficult times.

The vast majority of us have already voted for sinn fein when we voted for the Good Friday Agreement. were we happy to impose SF on the people of N.I. but declare them unworthy to even contest an election in this state? the hypocrisy in baffling. and dont fool ourselves into thinking that N.I. was a "different situation" and there was no alternative.
S.F. continue to make progress because of the popularity of the likes of Pearse Doherty.
Next weeks RedC will be very interesting indeed.
the sooner FF are driven into oblivion the better.

smcgiff

washman3 wrote: »

The vast majority of us have already voted for sinn fein when we voted for the Good Friday Agreement.

What a load of Boll ix.

However, we do agree on your last statement.

raymon

And the FF whinging continues .

This time they are complaining that Rte has a bias against them.

In their arrogance the don't realise that 84% of the country has a bias against them, except for 16% and a few FF shills in the Irish Independent and one in the Irish Times.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rte-news-bias-favours-laboursf-ff-inquiry-3031981.html

Come on Fianna Fail , when will your whinging stop

blinding

For utter incompetence and institutional corruption ff should be disappearing from the political scene.

Yet they still get 16% in a poll.

We will not have a proper politcal future until we mature enough as a country to send ff into the dustbin of history as their behaviour deserves.

bmaxi

dvpower wrote: »

SF and who?

SF and whichever of the political parties gets enough seats to pass the magical 84 seats. If we've learned anything from this current Government it is that morals, principles and ethics mean fcuk all when compared to Mercs and perks. No doubt it will be "for the good of the country". Pure rhetoric, just like everything else they've spouted.

mikemac1

blinding wrote: »

For utter incompetence and institutional corruption ff should be disappearing from the political scene.

Yet they still get 16% in a poll.

Many vote for the candidate and not for the party. This goes for all areas and all parties, there are always people like this

It's entirely possible the local FF TD is the best in the constituency.
And people look at that and not at the party front bench and policies

washman3

ie we have learned anything from this poll, it is that there are still 16% of the Irish population still in need of urgent help...:D

raymon

mikemac1 wrote: »

It's entirely possible the local FF TD is the best in the constituency.

You are joking.....right ?

Do you have an example of a constituency where this is the case ?

mikemac1

Based on my experience, Máire Hoctor in Tipp North who lost her seat anyway.
Minister for Health downgrades the hospital and the local TD gets the blame, always the way

Got to junior minister level but lost that job with the others when people said there were too many junior ministers

There was her, Michael Lowry and Noel Coonan who does nothing at all and barely campaigned at all.

You reckon Michael Lowry is the best or second best in the constituency? So are you joking right?

Hoctor was the only one to give good replies, not parish pump issues either. One was me asking about An Post and deregulation

You've taken one party and decided every single one of them is useless.
But in any organization there are good and bad members.

I'm not saying she was that good, she was better then the others though

Van Occupanther

bmaxi wrote: »

It makes my flesh creep to think that SF will ever form part of a government in this State but at this stage it looks inevitable. Labour deserve no better than what they are getting, they have betrayed their constituency. I would have expected no different from FG, even in good times they would have behaved the same way.

No matter what they say, all parties would go in with SF if they had to. Kenny and Bertie would have done it in 07 and I'm pretty sure Enda sounded out every non-FF TD before accepting that he was just short.

Also, given SF commitment to peaceful means why does the idea persist both here and in media that SF votes somehow have less value or legitimacy than other parties?

Nodin

raymon wrote: »

And the FF whinging continues .

This time they are complaining that Rte has a bias against them.

In their arrogance the don't realise that 84% of the country has a bias against them, except for 16% and a few FF shills in the Irish Independent and one in the Irish Times.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rte-news-bias-favours-laboursf-ff-inquiry-3031981.html

Come on Fianna Fail , when will your whinging stop

Having heard MM state on RTE's this morning that the current sell off of state assesets had nothing to do with the previous FF administrations policies, I'd have to say - never.

They needed to make a clean break after Cowan went, and putting MM in was not such a move.

raymon

mikemac1 wrote: »

Based on my experience, Máire Hoctor in Tipp North who lost her seat anyway.
Minister for Health downgrades the hospital and the local TD gets the blame, always the way

Got to junior minister level but lost that job with the others when people said there were too many junior ministers

There was her, Michael Lowry and Noel Coonan who does nothing at all and barely campaigned at all.

You reckon Michael Lowry is the best or second best in the constituency? So are you joking right?

Hoctor was the only one to give good replies, not parish pump issues either. One was me asking about An Post and deregulation

You've taken one party and decided every single one of them is useless.
But in any organization there are good and bad members.

I'm not saying she was that good, she was better then the others though

I see your dilemma. A poor field of candidates.

But lowry has been in the FF stable for years. Ever since he was caught taking dodgy money he was welcomed by FF into their alliance

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

Not true

Their last S&A poll was 20% in Dec for the times

Comparing apples with apples this represents 4% drop for FF

I had meant to highlight last night that the B&A had FF on 11% this time last year after the election, so FF support does seem to fluctuate widely within the B&A statistics.

The previous B&A poll did have FF on 20%, but the previous five polls before that had the party on 15% bar one which put the party at 16%. The RedC poll's have shown us that FF is staying between 16 - 18%, indicating that the previous B&A poll probably over emphasized the level of FF support.

The RedC poll next weekend is the one to watch - I would imagine it will show either a no change for FF or a very marginal increase.

EDIT: Although personally I feel that FF will likely go lower before the party starts to see any substantial rise in the polls - don't forget Mahon has yet to report.

Ellis Dee

raymon wrote: »

In the latest poll it looks like Michael Martins personal rating has dropped sharply, while FF remains to lose support due to it's widespread unpopularity

Their brand of whinge politics does not seem to be working.

The bad good news is that Sinn Fein is making huge gains

http://rte.ie/news/2012/0225/politics.html

Hopefully this spells the start of end of FF

FYP:D

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The RedC poll next weekend is the one to watch - I would imagine it will show either a no change for FF or a very marginal increase.

EDIT: Although personally I feel that FF will likely go lower before the party starts to see any substantial rise in the polls - don't forget Mahon has yet to report.

Yes looking forward to the RedC myself.

I don't think that FF will recover . I really hope they don't.

raymon

Ellis Dee wrote: »

FYP:D

dublinman1990

This complaint really tells the way FF are really making a mess of themselves at the moment.

This still begs the question though; Why did FF just tell the communications committee in the oireachtas to make a complaint about the so-called 'bias' in RTE, if they have one, then they would refer it to the BAI instead?

The previous government and (with a possibility) of other parties had led us to be biased to a certain degree that was unreachable to the extreme in association with the mess of the financial system.

This party should be done away with and banished to the extremes of history IMO.

Mairead Farrell

I think FF should be worried, the traditional rural nationalist vote, it's base since its foundation, is really under threat from Sinn Féin. These people would never vote Fine Gael, but Sinn Féin?

I think Fianna Fáil will start reverting to their nationalistic roots, if they don't I think they will be obliterated. I expect them to become increasingly nationalistic with the centenaries coming up, there are votes to be won. Sinn Féin have always been so, they are genuine in that respect, but I expect FF will be quite cynical in exploiting the centenaries for electoral gain.

A merger between FF and Fine Gael is the stuff of fantasy in my opinion. Will never happen, just suggest it to a FF member and see the reaction it gets.

Sinn Féin will be a govt party sooner rather than later, thats inevitable in my opinion. That said, they are already a govt party in Ireland. They want to be a govt party in both jurisdictions. They are playing a long game, the goal, a united Ireland.

Interesting times.

Eggy Baby!

If Sinn Fein get in, everyone who doesn't have red hair and green eyes will get put in concentration camps, and the secret police, the SanS (Súile An Stáit), will patrol the streets with cudgels looking for dissidents. Gerry Adams will have a cult of personality and his role in the IRA will be ballooned whereas Martin McGuinness' role will be forgotten. There'll be murals on every wall of Adams holding an armalite firing at the Apprentice Boys. He will be proclaimed "Eternal Leader" and will be revered by everyone. Everything must be green. every song sung must be to the tune of "Amhran na bhFiann" and have at least 50% of the lyrics on pain of "re-education". Elections are outlawed, as are banks.

Enda Kenny will be shot, as will Eamon Gilmore. But Martin will be put into exile on Achill Island. Other opposition leaders will be exiled, arrested or killed. Media is censored and independent broadcasting is forbidden. State propaganda is everywhere.

Foreigners will of course be put in concentration camps.

We'll build an aircraft carrier for no discernible reason and call it the "Gerry Adams".

Peadar Toibin will become dictator of Meath.

Ireland will be renamed "The Warriors Holy Irish Republic of Saints and Scholars." And Northern Ireland is referred to in state media as "The British Bit".

We will leave the EU, the UN (citing "British banditry and imperialism" as the cause for both withdrawals) and all other international organisations. Adams will begin to ardently demand Fermanagh. When he gets Fermanagh, he will demand Tyrone. When he gets Tyrone, he will make all sorts of mad demands and then invade Britain for no reason.

So if you're in the army, expect to be relocated to sunny Belfast soon enough....preceded by an aerial bombardment.


Lol. Vote Sinn Fein!

Anyway no real political party does it for me. It'll be my first time voting in a general election this time coming so I dunno...

southsiderosie

MOD NOTE:

Just a gentle reminder: if you cannot post in a civil manner, then don't post at all. Flamebait (and responses) deleted.

Back on topic please, folks.

quietriot

I hope the EU takes complete control of this country before the ignorant, lazy, self-serving electorate here have a chance to vote SF into power.

The surge in support for them merely serves as more proof, if ever needed, that the average Irish voter is an absolute idiot who votes on a basis of what will they perceive will affect them the least and how they can "stick it to" the current government the most. They truly do not deserve the right to have their opinions heard, never mind a say in who runs the country and represents us at international level.

I would rather have Merkel at the helm, referendums abandoned and German introduced as a mandatory second language here than see the fumbling, terrorist-backing cretins that SF are in power.

Foghladh

I wouldn't think that this spells the end of Fianna Fail at all. They've been hovering in between the mid-high teens ever since the election and at a time when they have every reason to be unpopular.
That says to me that this is their core support. That's a pretty large support base that the likes of Labour and SF can't call upon. If the poll is taken as accurate then the swing to SF would appear to have come mainly from the Labour account. The swing vote is a fickle thing though and by the time you discount the drop that will inevitably occur with the independent candidates anything is possible.
I'd agree that the FF Ard Fheis could be an important one for them. They'd really need to show something new in order to gain back some of that swing

bmaxi

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

Enda Kenny will be shot, as will Eamon Gilmore. But Martin will be put into exile on Achill Island.

There's me thinking it would be all bad news. :rolleyes:

GSF

Seems as if the future for the near term anyway is going to be 4 mid sized parties getting somewhere in the range of 15%-30% each with about 15% going to independents. So to form a government you are going to have several permutations:

1) FG + LAB
2) FG + FF
3) FG + SF
4) LAB + FF
5) LAB + SF
6) SF + FF
7) any of the above with independents

Probably the only realistic ones are FG + Lab or SF + FF