Has anything been achieved?

femur61

I've been reading and posting on here since the Euro crisis began. Why?

Nothing has changed.

As far as the wastage in government, CPA is still in place, if wages were reduced we could get our SNAs back and career guidance teachers jobs would be secure. Still people on trollies, public hosipials lists are still as long. Taxes are increasing.

Is all this cyber complaining worth it.

Have to admit great source of information but actually achieving anything I think not.

BornToKill

Has anything been achieved?

I'd say a lot done, more to do.

tara73

Ireland is sticking to the troika obligations, which I think is a respectable achievement, keeping the country out of the focus of the creditors, unlike greece.

I know it's debatable if the obligations are in favour of Ireland and it's people, but that would make another thread.

Godge

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/meb%202012/February.pdf


See page 14, the general government deficit has been cut from €22.78 bn in 2009 to €15.6 bn in 2011 with a further cut projected for 2012. So progress in getting our finances sorted out.

There was a significant blip in 2010 due to the money put into the banks.

Dirk Gently

could be worse, at least we're not iceland, ........ actually, no wait.

Count Dooku

Godge wrote: »

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/meb%202012/February.pdf


See page 14, the general government deficit has been cut from €22.78 bn in 2009 to €15.6 bn in 2011 with a further cut projected for 2012.

Mostly through cuts in capital spending

ardmacha

The Balance of Payments is in surplus.

Still people on trollies, public hosipials lists are still as long. Taxes are increasing.
Is all this cyber complaining worth it.

Cyber complaining of the type usually found on this forum is a complete waste of time. Without proper analysis, all you get is whining which just clutters up a forum in which useful discussion might take place.

Complaining about a deficit and then complaining about tax increases is the kind of nonsense I am talking about.

CiaranC

Yeah, weve kicked the can down the road like we set out to do

Count Dooku

ardmacha wrote: »

The Balance of Payments is in surplus.

After taking in account repatriated profits balance of primary incomes with the rest of the world is in minus
http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/imfsummarydatapage/

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

washman3

very little actual progress has been made,if any at all. more likely we have gone backwards and continue to do so. the elite still remain largely untouched. life goes on for those who caused the whole mess,with some actually being paid huge salaries to "manage" the mess. no white collar criminal has appeared before a judge,or no signs at present that any will.
ironically those that were mainly overlooked by the "Celtic Tiger" are now the people expected to pick up the tab for the party.
one could just not make it up.:mad:

Godge

washman3 wrote: »

very little actual progress has been made,if any at all. more likely we have gone backwards and continue to do so. the elite still remain largely untouched. life goes on for those who caused the whole mess,with some actually being paid huge salaries to "manage" the mess. no white collar criminal has appeared before a judge,or no signs at present that any will.
ironically those that were mainly overlooked by the "Celtic Tiger" are now the people expected to pick up the tab for the party.
one could just not make it up.:mad:

How many times do I have to repeat it. We started out with a deficit of €22.78bn, we need to get it to 3% of GDP which is €4.5 bn in current terms. Inflation and growth probably means that will be about €4.8 bn in two to three years time. €22.78 minus €4.8 bn is approximately €18 bn. We have already found €7.18 bn by the end of 2011. By the end of 2012, we will be more than 50% there, so sometime this summer we will be halfway there.

If a solution is found for Greece, either stabilising it within the Euro or expelling Greece and stabilising the Euro after it has left, then we will make it, provided we continue on the current path.

The danger is that a deluded public will convince some stupid fearful backbench TDs to bring down this Govenment and that they then vote in some stupid combination of ULA/SF/FF.

Count Dooku

Godge wrote: »

How many times do I have to repeat it. We started out with a deficit of €22.78bn, we need to get it to 3% of GDP which is €4.5 bn in current terms. Inflation and growth probably means that will be about €4.8 bn in two to three years time. €22.78 minus €4.8 bn is approximately €18 bn. We have already found €7.18 bn by the end of 2011. By the end of 2012, we will be more than 50% there, so sometime this summer we will be halfway there.

If a solution is found for Greece, either stabilising it within the Euro or expelling Greece and stabilising the Euro after it has left, then we will make it, provided we continue on the current path.

The danger is that a deluded public will convince some stupid fearful backbench TDs to bring down this Govenment and that they then vote in some stupid combination of ULA/SF/FF.

So far Ireland was fooling Troika by cutting capital expenditure and including health levy into income tax without real cuts on welfare benefits and PS pay
Let see what will happen when government will have to go for tough decisions

ardmacha

After taking in account repatriated profits balance of primary incomes with the rest of the world is in minus
http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/imfsummarydatapage/

I don't think so. There is a substantial repatriated profits minus balance, but it is less than the trade surplus. Ireland inc is paying its way.

without real cuts on welfare benefits and PS pay

Not counting the 14% cut in PS pay, of course.

Count Dooku

ardmacha wrote: »

I don't think so. There is a substantial repatriated profits minus balance, but it is less than the trade surplus. Ireland inc is paying its way.

really?

ardmacha wrote: »

Not counting the 14% cut in PS pay, of course.

Of course, not, because PS pay and pension bill have been reduced only by 7%

martian1980

Count Dooku wrote: »

really?

Of course, not, because PS pay and pension bill have been reduced only by 7%

Please, not this rubbish again.

2 reductions have been applied to the pay of public servants, totalling 14%

The first was called a pension levy. It reduced public pay by between 3 and 9.6%. It averages at about 7%. Here's a nice link for you:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0203/economy.html

The second reduction to public pay was called a paycut and averaged another 7%. Here's another nice link for you:
http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2009/12/articles/IE0912029I.htm

Regardless of what you want to argue back, public sector pay has been reduced twice, by about 14%.

sarumite

martian1980 wrote: »

Please, not this rubbish again.

2 reductions have been applied to the pay of public servants, totalling 14%

The first was called a pension levy. It reduced public pay by between 3 and 9.6%. It averages at about 7%. Here's a nice link for you:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0203/economy.html

The second reduction to public pay was called a paycut and averaged another 7%. Here's another nice link for you:
http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2009/12/articles/IE0912029I.htm

Regardless of what you want to argue back, public sector pay has been reduced twice, by about 14%.

I can agree with that summation. However, I do think we should also include the lower starting pay for new entrants (the unions should be ashamed of themselves) and payrises (the government should be ashamed of themselves).

Dannyboy83

Whatever opinion people may hold on the cuts and levies, Count Dooku's core point was sound.

http://www.ronanlyons.com/2012/01/10/just-like-that-200000-jobs-and-the-government%E2%80%99s-magic-trick/
All current expenditure outside the areas of health, education and social welfare constitutes about one sixth of all spending but has made up almost two thirds of the cuts.

You could scrap every single one of these departments, from Taoiseach’s right down to Arts & Heritage and you still wouldn’t have cut current spending by enough to balance the books

http://www.ronanlyons.com/2011/04/26/%E2%80%9Cslash-and-burn%E2%80%9D-anything-but-the-need-for-realism-in-budget-2012/

in three short years, capital spending has been halved. The easy cuts have been made.

If the same scale of cuts had been made in health, education and social welfare, the government would have saved €20bn!

Instead, spending in those three areas this year will be €2bn higher than in 2008, largely due to more people needing social welfare.

The depressing conclusion is that, three tough Budgets later, all the “low-hanging fruit” has been picked, leaving just the more painful cuts needed to close the deficit.

We've seen the Troika warn that Social Welfare will have to be cut

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0103/1224309737525.html
Troika warns welfare cuts and income tax rises look unavoidable

It's clear that the Public Service are still untouchable tho

http://www.examiner.ie/ireland/nuclear-winter-if-croke-park-deal-axed-184247.html

One of the ministers charged with overseeing the reform of the public service has warned of a "nuclear winter" of industrial action if the Croke Park deal is abandoned. ***

*** - what is Fine Gael's obsession with dirty bombs - between Varadkar and the bomb in Dublin, now Hayes and the nuclear winter..........

V_Moth

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

*** - what is Fine Gael's obsession with dirty bombs - between Varadkar and the bomb in Dublin, now Hayes and the nuclear winter..........

Its a scare tactic to ensure people stay in line against the unions. The more dramatic the language, the more worried that person/agency is.

See also framing.

washman3

Godge wrote: »

How many times do I have to repeat it. We started out with a deficit of €22.78bn, we need to get it to 3% of GDP which is €4.5 bn in current terms. Inflation and growth probably means that will be about €4.8 bn in two to three years time. €22.78 minus €4.8 bn is approximately €18 bn. We have already found €7.18 bn by the end of 2011. By the end of 2012, we will be more than 50% there, so sometime this summer we will be halfway there.

If a solution is found for Greece, either stabilising it within the Euro or expelling Greece and stabilising the Euro after it has left, then we will make it, provided we continue on the current path.

The danger is that a deluded public will convince some stupid fearful backbench TDs to bring down this Govenment and that they then vote in some stupid combination of ULA/SF/FF.

you working for the government by any chance??
if not then you are seriousely deluded.
a solution found for Greece?? FFS even my dog knows there's no hope for Greece.!! and the Euro will not be stabilised after Greece has left,will be worse if anything,called the domino effect. the vultures will line up the next victim.
as for your figures..... God help us..!!
think Enda would call it "optics"

NakedNNettles

femur61 wrote: »

I've been reading and posting on here since the Euro crisis began. Why?

Nothing has changed.

As far as the wastage in government, CPA is still in place, if wages were reduced we could get our SNAs back and career guidance teachers jobs would be secure. Still people on trollies, public hosipials lists are still as long. Taxes are increasing.

Yeah unfortunately it took years to get into this mess so you can't expect it all to be sorted in a matter of months. That's life.

As for career guidence teachers, get rid of them! They were a waste of money in my time (20 years ago) and still are.

If students want career guidence, let them get on the net where its all free.

Godge

washman3 wrote: »

you working for the government by any chance??
if not then you are seriousely deluded.
a solution found for Greece?? FFS even my dog knows there's no hope for Greece.!! and the Euro will not be stabilised after Greece has left,will be worse if anything,called the domino effect. the vultures will line up the next victim.
as for your figures..... God help us..!!
think Enda would call it "optics"

I will give you the benefit of the doubt, your post was late at night and probably tired and emotional. The figures come from official publications such as this one (this is at least the second time in this thread I have linked to official figures):

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/meb%202012/February.pdf


I had thought that this forum was not After Hours. If you think my figures are wrong, provide a link. If you don't provide a link, you are effectively saying that the Department of Finance is making up its own numbers.

I would not call myself deluded. I am a realist. We have a big problem with our public finances but it is not impossible to solve. There will be hardship, further reductions in the social welfare budget, further reductions in the pay budget and further increases in taxation, but it is achievable. If it is done properly over the next two years, we can rebound strongly thereafter.

washman3

Godge wrote: »

I had thought that this forum was not After Hours. If you think my figures are wrong, provide a link. If you don't provide a link, you are effectively saying that the Department of Finance is making up its own numbers.

I would not call myself deluded. I am a realist. We have a big problem with our public finances but it is not impossible to solve. There will be hardship, further reductions in the social welfare budget, further reductions in the pay budget and further increases in taxation, but it is achievable. If it is done properly over the next two years, we can rebound strongly thereafter.

yes, our public finances are possible to solve. agree. but who will suffer the hadrship?? will it be those who caused this mess? No definately not.
these guys still swan around living the life of luxury while those who were largely bypassed by the "celtic tiger" will be crucified by stealth taxes at every twist and turn. even as i write this post Pat Kenny is on radio in the background,criticising Greece. what "hardship" has this guy suffered? will anything change for him? No, because he is one of the chosen few. a short few years ago this same guy had a morning show urging people to buy property in Bulgaria.
we will only solve our finance problems if we start at the very top. under the last government,and now the present one,this will never happen.
why? because they have become compromised over the years.
as for the Dept. of Finance figures, they are simply not worth the paper they are written on. remember this is the same dept. that "mislaid" €3.6 billion during the last 6 months. a Dept. with a national school teacher at its helm.!!
the only figures we can have confidence in, are those produced by the likes of McWilliams,Constanstin G,Morgan Kelly and Lucey.
people that do not have vested interests in other words.!!!

femur61

NakedNNettles wrote: »

Yeah unfortunately it took years to get into this mess so you can't expect it all to be sorted in a matter of months. That's life.

As for career guidence teachers, get rid of them! They were a waste of money in my time (20 years ago) and still are.

If students want career guidence, let them get on the net where its all free.

I do agree but in VECs where people have either dropped out of main stream or didn't get accepted people need guidance they are a necessity. As a parent there is a lot of wastage but in these schools I do think they are necessary.

Godge

washman3 wrote: »

yes, our public finances are possible to solve. agree. but who will suffer the hadrship?? will it be those who caused this mess? No definately not.
these guys still swan around living the life of luxury while those who were largely bypassed by the "celtic tiger" will be crucified by stealth taxes at every twist and turn. even as i write this post Pat Kenny is on radio in the background,criticising Greece. what "hardship" has this guy suffered? will anything change for him? No, because he is one of the chosen few. a short few years ago this same guy had a morning show urging people to buy property in Bulgaria.
we will only solve our finance problems if we start at the very top. under the last government,and now the present one,this will never happen.
why? because they have become compromised over the years.
as for the Dept. of Finance figures, they are simply not worth the paper they are written on. remember this is the same dept. that "mislaid" €3.6 billion during the last 6 months. a Dept. with a national school teacher at its helm.!!
the only figures we can have confidence in, are those produced by the likes of McWilliams,Constanstin G,Morgan Kelly and Lucey.
people that do not have vested interests in other words.!!!

What a load of rubbish.

The likes of McWilliams and Constantin have been predicting the end of the world in six weeks for the last couple of years yet here we are, still in the Euro, still paying our public servants and social welfare recipients. Those two have no credibility whatsoever, poor old David McW, told Lenihan to put in the bank guarantee that caused the whole problem and has run around for four years trying to downplay his role. Give me a break.

You told me my figures were "optics" and that I was deluded yet you have failed to produce even one figure to contradict what I have said. There are too many people on here who are so sore about what has happened that they are not able to think straight enough to figure out where we are and what else needs to be done.

Count Dooku

Godge wrote: »

I will give you the benefit of the doubt, your post was late at night and probably tired and emotional. The figures come from official publications such as this one (this is at least the second time in this thread I have linked to official figures):

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/publications/meb%202012/February.pdf


I had thought that this forum was not After Hours. If you think my figures are wrong, provide a link. If you don't provide a link, you are effectively saying that the Department of Finance is making up its own numbers.

I would not call myself deluded. I am a realist. We have a big problem with our public finances but it is not impossible to solve. There will be hardship, further reductions in the social welfare budget, further reductions in the pay budget and further increases in taxation, but it is achievable. If it is done properly over the next two years, we can rebound strongly thereafter.

"Official figures" means nothing without understanding what it means
a) So far most of savings have been achieved through easy choices like cutting capital spending and creative accounting by adding 2.341Bn of health levy into tax take
b) until CPA will be not scrapped, it will be no massive savings on PS pay and pension bill, because for every 100 euro saved on pay bill, it will be 50 euro increase on pension bill and 25 euro decrease in tax take, ie saving from natural wastage and voluntary redundacies will be minimal and wont be seen for at least 5-6 years
c) until Labour will be government, it will be no reduction of welfare rates
d) personal tax increases are not working,
income tax take in 2010 was 11.276,092 Bn
after renaming health levy into USC and adding it to income tax take it reached 13.797,532Bn
real increase from new rates was 13.797,532Bn(income tax take in 2011) - (11.276,092Bn(income tax take in 2010) + 2.341Bn(health levy take in 2010)) 180.440 millions.
At the same time VAT take have reduced by 9,740,525(2011) - 10,101,284(2010) = 360.759 millions!!!!
Health Levy take - http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2010/10/12/00121.asp
Tax revenue - http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2011/enddecexcheqstat.pdf
Just perfect illustration to Laffer curve in action, where increase in rates are followed by reduced tax take
It means that increasing personal taxes is not option, because it will effectively reduce tax take, while cuts on welfare and PS pay is not option due political reasons ( "nuclear winter" etc)

So question again - where is bright future if expenditure must be reduced by 18Bn?

NakedNNettles

femur61 wrote: »

I do agree but in VECs where people have either dropped out of main stream or didn't get accepted people need guidance they are a necessity. As a parent there is a lot of wastage but in these schools I do think they are necessary.

Point taken, I don't know much about the VEC structure.

I was referring to secondary schools.

Students today are amazingly tech savvy and can find out way more career information online than some conservative ancient dinosaur 1-2 generations behind the curve is going to give them.

Half of them probably think something like the computer games industry is just flegling cottage industry. :pac:

mike65

I think Guidance teachers are now mainly doing what might be termed "ecumenical psychology" for students who feel under pressure and uncertain in their final years.

touts

The German Bondholder Banks got the billions they lent to Seanie Fitz and Mikey "Fingers" Fingleton back and at the end of the day that's all that really matters. The bankers regard that one hell of an achievement.

Billionair investors like Roman Abramovich also managed to get their unsecured speculative loans, which they bought at a discount on the secondary market, repayed at full value. Rewriting the rules of economics is one hell of an achievement on their part.

Then Germany, France, Britain etc managed to force the Irish (and Greeks and Portuguese) to take "loans" at 3-4% more than they pay on the markets for it thus giving them billions in profit over the next 10-15 years. That's one hell of an achievement by the civil servants in their departments of finance.

The Irish government managed to keep the Irish public in control as the country was looted and it's movable assets (pension reserve fund etc) were carted off to Berlin as trophies. They even managed to get severe austerity measures through to gurantee the repayment of the high interest loan reparations without so much as a whimper from the people. Now that's an achievement the Enda Kenny can be proud of when he goes to the imperial court for his quaterly pat on the head from the Co-Augustii Merkel and Sarkosy.

Godge

Count Dooku wrote: »

"Official figures" means nothing without understanding what it means
a) So far most of savings have been achieved through easy choices like cutting capital spending and creative accounting by adding 2.341Bn of health levy into tax take
b) until CPA will be not scrapped, it will be no massive savings on PS pay and pension bill, because for every 100 euro saved on pay bill, it will be 50 euro increase on pension bill and 25 euro decrease in tax take, ie saving from natural wastage and voluntary redundacies will be minimal and wont be seen for at least 5-6 years
c) until Labour will be government, it will be no reduction of welfare rates
d) personal tax increases are not working,
income tax take in 2010 was 11.276,092 Bn
after renaming health levy into USC and adding it to income tax take it reached 13.797,532Bn
real increase from new rates was 13.797,532Bn(income tax take in 2011) - (11.276,092Bn(income tax take in 2010) + 2.341Bn(health levy take in 2010)) 180.440 millions.
At the same time VAT take have reduced by 9,740,525(2011) - 10,101,284(2010) = 360.759 millions!!!!
Health Levy take - http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2010/10/12/00121.asp
Tax revenue - http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2011/enddecexcheqstat.pdf
Just perfect illustration to Laffer curve in action, where increase in rates are followed by reduced tax take
It means that increasing personal taxes is not option, because it will effectively reduce tax take, while cuts on welfare and PS pay is not option due political reasons ( "nuclear winter" etc)

So question again - where is bright future if expenditure must be reduced by 18Bn?

Where do you get the figure of €18bn from? It is much less than that. Look at my post below.

Godge wrote: »

How many times do I have to repeat it. We started out with a deficit of €22.78bn, we need to get it to 3% of GDP which is €4.5 bn in current terms. Inflation and growth probably means that will be about €4.8 bn in two to three years time. €22.78 minus €4.8 bn is approximately €18 bn. We have already found €7.18 bn by the end of 2011. By the end of 2012, we will be more than 50% there, so sometime this summer we will be halfway there.

If a solution is found for Greece, either stabilising it within the Euro or expelling Greece and stabilising the Euro after it has left, then we will make it, provided we continue on the current path.

The danger is that a deluded public will convince some stupid fearful backbench TDs to bring down this Govenment and that they then vote in some stupid combination of ULA/SF/FF.

€18 bn was needed from 2009. By the end of 2011 we had reduced the gap by €7.18 bn. A further €3.8 bn was brought in by budget 2012. Read the speech!

http://budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2012/FinancialStatement.aspx

This makes the total approximately €11bn of the €18bn needed to get us to 3% has already been implemented. Over the next two to three years we will need to find €7 bn in adjustments, maybe less if inflation and/or growth lend a hand.

now you have said a couple of times that the adjustments have happened mainly in relation to capital expenditure. Again, read the speech and look at the figures:

"To continue to improve the sustainability of the public finances, we need €3.8 billion of additional fiscal consolidation in 2012. The Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, Brendan Howlin T.D., set out the €750 million capital expenditure consolidation on the 10th of November last and yesterday set out how the €1.45 billion current expenditure consolidation will be implemented. With regard to the €1.6 billion revenue consolidation required in 2012, the full year effect of measures already introduced is €600 million and this means that I am announcing additional new tax measures today worth €1 billion approximately."


So only €750m of the €3.8 bn of cuts and taxes for 2012 were in the capital budget - 19.7%, so that is another lie nailed. The increase in taxation caused by moving the health levy was matched by a corresponding reduction in income to the Department of Health so in accounting terms it was a net zero.

So how do we get savings next year? Well I can think of one off the top of my head. We are paying about €800m in one-off lump sums to public servants retiring this February. Their pensions will be paid for 10 months of this year so there shouldn't be much extra cost in 12 months of that - about €40m next year for the extra two months I would guess. I would expect the number of public servants retiring next year to fall dramatically as most who could go then have gone now instead. Even if it holds up to 25% of this year's level that would mean a cost next year of €200m in lump sums. So €245m next year as opposed to €800m this year, if you even allow for some replacement more than was expected you should still see the first €500m for next year's cuts of €3.5 bn coming off the public service pay and pensions bill. That is without firing anyone else or without cutting anyone's pay.

Count Dooku

Sorry
I was wrong because deficit is actually more
in 2010 it was 18,744,208, while in 2011 it reached 24,917,176 mostly due increase on repayments/intetest from 12,492,883 to 27,046,282
It means that saving/cuts must be 20 bn

Godge

Count Dooku wrote: »

Sorry
I was wrong because deficit is actually more
in 2010 it was 18,744,208, while in 2011 it reached 24,917,176 mostly due increase on repayments/intetest from 12,492,883 to 27,046,282
It means that saving/cuts must be 20 bn

Where do you get your figures from? I can find nothing anywhere to verify them. I am open to persuasion that I am wrong but when the official figures back up what I am saying I need more than the above to change my mind.

http://budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2012/Documents/Medium%20Term%20Fiscal%20Statement%20November%202011.pdf


Can you also clarify whether you are talking about the Exchequer deficit or the General Government deficit and whether you are including one-off banking payments in your calculations?

The points I am making are based on the targets we have to achieve - less than 3% of a General Government deficit by 2015/6. Look at this quote from the above document:

"It is currently estimated that an adjustment of some €12.4 billion over the four-year period 2012-2015 will be sufficient to achieve this target "


Now, as I have shown already, we are making an adjustment of €3.8 bn in 2012 which leaves €8.6 bn to be saved in the following three years. I estimated €7 bn earlier which is lower than the €8.6 but I am much closer to the mark than the rubbish estimates that €18-20 bn of cuts still need to be made (I may still be right if there is some revenue buoyancy, some growth and/or some inflation). We are still a long long way from getting out of the mess but it is time to acknowledge that some decent progress has been made.

It actually means that the next three budgets do not need to be as harsh as the last one.

Count Dooku

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2011/enddecexcheqstat.pdf check total ( the last one)

antoobrien

Count Dooku wrote: »

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2011/enddecexcheqstat.pdf check total ( the last one)

Godge wrote: »

Where do you get your figures from? I can find nothing anywhere to verify them. I am open to persuasion that I am wrong but when the official figures back up what I am saying I need more than the above to change my mind.

http://budget.gov.ie/Budgets/2012/Documents/Medium%20Term%20Fiscal%20Statement%20November%202011.pdf

There's a bit of truth in what you're both saying but Godge is more correct.

If you'll read the statement issued by the DoF in January the headline figure is €24.9 billion of a deficit for 2011.

The EU/IMF/ECB deficit targets do not include payments servicing the national debt (€2.6 billion) or to the banks & credit unions (€6.8) and includes a correction for performance of taxes (incl prsi, €500m).

All this reduces the trioka deficit target to €15 billion, and it's this figure that the correction for 2012 is based on not the misleadingly large headline figure.

Godge

antoobrien wrote: »

There's a bit of truth in what you're both saying but Godge is more correct.

If you'll read the statement issued by the DoF in January the headline figure is €24.9 billion of a deficit for 2011.

The EU/IMF/ECB deficit targets do not include payments servicing the national debt (€2.6 billion) or to the banks & credit unions (€6.8) and includes a correction for performance of taxes (incl prsi, €500m).

All this reduces the trioka deficit target to €15 billion, and it's this figure that the correction for 2012 is based on not the misleadingly large headline figure.

Thank you, was beginning to think I was slowly going mad.

The important questions are:

(1) What target do we need to reach to get out from under the Troika?
(2) How much of an adjustment is needed to reach that target?
(3) What policy decisions are needed to fund that adjustment?

If we can't agree on (1) and (2), there is no point talking about (3).

The importance of the figures I used are shown by the following piece from Noonan in the January statement:

"The Exchequer deficit in 2011 was some €2¾ billion lower than it was 2010, when the impact of banking related expenditure is excluded"


This is in line with the point I was making that progress has been made.

ucdperson

The important questions are:

(1) What target do we need to reach to get out from under the Troika?
(2) How much of an adjustment is needed to reach that target?
(3) What policy decisions are needed to fund that adjustment?

I would add 2.5) What does a long term sustainable structure of the expenditure and revenue raising look like? I would then, as far as possible, redirect the policy decisions in the direction that will have to taken in the long term anyway.

tails_naf

antoobrien wrote: »

There's a bit of truth in what you're both saying but Godge is more correct.

If you'll read the statement issued by the DoF in January the headline figure is €24.9 billion of a deficit for 2011.

The EU/IMF/ECB deficit targets do not include payments servicing the national debt (€2.6 billion) or to the banks & credit unions (€6.8) and includes a correction for performance of taxes (incl prsi, €500m).

All this reduces the trioka deficit target to €15 billion, and it's this figure that the correction for 2012 is based on not the misleadingly large headline figure.

Err - call me mad, but just because the Troika are not including these parts of the deficit in the target does not mean they simply disappear - they will still be there when when we hit the target - and will be still slowly sinking us. The only way to actually recover long term is to get back into the black - and to do that we will have to (eventually) clear all the deficit.

Count Dooku

Godge wrote: »

The importance of the figures I used are shown by the following piece from Noonan in the January statement:

"The Exchequer deficit in 2011 was some €2¾ billion lower than it was 2010, when the impact of banking related expenditure is excluded"

Problems with banks are not finished yet

The Central Bank today publishes the latest data on mortgage arrears, restructures and repossessions for the period ended December 2011. The figures show that 9.2% of private residential mortgage accounts are in arrears of over 90 days

http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/press-releases/Pages/ResidentialMortgageArrearsandRepossessionStatisticstoDecember2011.aspx
It means that very soon banks will require another bailout

Dubit10

Nothing has been done. We are going backwards as a nation at a startling pace and even the incredible amount of positive PR from the government is'nt working.

Slash all PS and private sector pay by 30%.

Reduce all social payments by 25%

All TD's wages reduced by 75%

Disband the Army

Reduce all ex TD's pensions by 75%

That's just a start and an example of action that would have the country back on track within 5 years, all thats happening at present is spineless typical political gameplaying.

antoobrien

tails_naf wrote: »

Err - call me mad, but just because the Troika are not including these parts of the deficit in the target does not mean they simply disappear - they will still be there when when we hit the target - and will be still slowly sinking us. The only way to actually recover long term is to get back into the black - and to do that we will have to (eventually) clear all the deficit.

First up I agree with your analysis (I think it's spot on).

The concept of deficit that the trioka are using seems to be the "ordinary" state expenditures. The payments to the banks don't fall into that category, in their view these are "extraordinary" payments that would not normally be paid. It's the "normal" payments,which I think everyone will agree are not under control regardless of the situation of the banks, that the troika are trying to get under control.

I'm not sure why they're ignoring payments & interest on the national debt though, that doesn't make immediate sense to me, as these would be normal parts of a government budget.

antoobrien

Godge wrote: »

(1) What target do we need to reach to get out from under the Troika?

The target is a deficit of 3% of GDP. GDP is currently €150 billion - €155 billion, so it's in the order of €4 billion - €5 billion. Given the current troika targets discussed earlier, we'd need to raise/cut a further €10 billion in taxes/spending.

I'm not aware of a mechanism to end troika funding before January 1st 2014, so we "get out" one of:
a) January 1st 2014
b) if something else goes pear shaped again causing a further bailout, so whenever the troika say so
c) the troika decide that the situation isn't stable enough (again causing a further bailout), so whenever the troika say so

Given the general improvement in Irish bonds regardless of what's been going on in Greece (which really screwed up prices in the past) I think we're on course to be back to borrowing "as normal" in by the end of next year.

Count Dooku

antoobrien wrote: »

tails_naf wrote: »

Err - call me mad, but just because the Troika are not including these parts of the deficit in the target does not mean they simply disappear - they will still be there when when we hit the target - and will be still slowly sinking us. The only way to actually recover long term is to get back into the black - and to do that we will have to (eventually) clear all the deficit.

First up I agree with your analysis (I think it's spot on).

The concept of deficit that the trioka are using seems to be the "ordinary" state expenditures. The payments to the banks don't fall into that category, in their view these are "extraordinary" payments that would not normally be paid. It's the "normal" payments,which I think everyone will agree are not under control regardless of the situation of the banks, that the troika are trying to get under control.

I'm not sure why they're ignoring payments & interest on the national debt though, that doesn't make immediate sense to me, as these would be normal parts of a government budget.

Troika doesn't want to confirm that problems are much worse then everybody thinks and they want to spread cuts over decade

antoobrien

Count Dooku wrote: »

Problems with banks are not finished yet

The Central Bank today publishes the latest data on mortgage arrears, restructures and repossessions for the period ended December 2011. The figures show that 9.2% of private residential mortgage accounts are in arrears of over 90 days

http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/press-releases/Pages/ResidentialMortgageArrearsandRepossessionStatisticstoDecember2011.aspx
It means that very soon banks will require another bailout

A little bit hysterical that.

Assuming the failure of all those 9.2% of mortgages that's a total loss of approx €13 billion.

So there are a few things that need to be put straight about this:
1) the Irish residential mortgage market (all banks not just the 4 "Irish") is €141 billion, so the €13 billion figure is high.
2) There's a further 6% or so of mortgages that have been restructured, so we can assume that a lot of these will also be restructured
3) there's no way that 10% of the mortgage market will fail - it's estimated that 12,000 cases of arrears are "strategic defaults" - i.e. can but won't pay
4) The stress test last year forced the banks to put up contingency of €24 billion (nearly twice the indicated liability)
5)the troika funding up to €35 billion for the banks (nearly 3 times the indicated liability).

So in summary, there's nothing new, startling or even worrying in that report because we've actually be told all this before.

[Jackass]

femur61 wrote: »

I've been reading and posting on here since the Euro crisis began. Why?

Nothing has changed.

As far as the wastage in government, CPA is still in place, if wages were reduced we could get our SNAs back and career guidance teachers jobs would be secure. Still people on trollies, public hosipials lists are still as long. Taxes are increasing.

Is all this cyber complaining worth it.

Have to admit great source of information but actually achieving anything I think not.

To give a simple response to the OP, I think progress is being made, in so far as we're keeping up with our debt burden obligations, austerity is on target to guide us out of the fiscal mess (in terms of debt service anyway), reputation is clearly being restored in Europe, jobs are slowly but surely being created, there is stability now that didn't exist at the end of the last Government, we've renegotiated and reduced our debt, we're getting public spending under control, tax changes haven't been as harsh or crippling as could have been expected and as are elsewhere in the world (i.e. Greece), but most importantly, what I would say to you, and many more like you, is how much do you expect?

This is going to be a long long road back to recovery, and it seems that some people are expecting everything to be sorted over night, or even in one Government term, and everything you complain about (people on trollies etc.), is the result of a previous Governments mis-management of an Economy (and something they couldn't even sort out when they had unparralled wealth), and there is not a whole lot that anybody can do about certain issues yet, as there is little or no money there to throw at it, and it's going to be a very gradual recovery where the many many issues facing Ireland can only be tackled one at a time, and only when other parts of the problem are resolved or improved, that will facilitate the addressing of other of our many many long existing problems, such as health service reform.

Has anything changed? Of course it has, I think that much is as clear as day when we remember where we were, but is it drastically different and after one year in office have we got nothing left to complain about and is everything better than it ever was in the boom? Of course not, but it's important that you remember where to point the finger of blame on that, and be reasonable when assessing the current Governments performance, as if I handed you a stick and some donkey poo and asked you to paint me a portrait, I wouldn't be expecting the mona lisa, as you can only work with what you've got.

I think we are definitely making progress, things are getting better rather than worse in my opinion, although we are still in a sh*t state of affairs, but I do feel like we're on the right track and have a good team in Government, I just wonder sometimes how people complain about the current Government so much when looking at the time in office and the state of the country they inherited.

We're not in free fall any more like we were under Cowen, and that alone is a massive saving grace.

Count Dooku

antoobrien wrote: »

A little bit hysterical that.

Assuming the failure of all those 9.2% of mortgages that's a total loss of approx €13 billion.

So there are a few things that need to be put straight about this:
1) the Irish residential mortgage market (all banks not just the 4 "Irish") is €141 billion, so the €13 billion figure is high.
2) There's a further 6% or so of mortgages that have been restructured, so we can assume that a lot of these will also be restructured
3) there's no way that 10% of the mortgage market will fail - it's estimated that 12,000 cases of arrears are "strategic defaults" - i.e. can but won't pay
4) The stress test last year forced the banks to put up contingency of €24 billion (nearly twice the indicated liability)
5)the troika funding up to €35 billion for the banks (nearly 3 times the indicated liability).

So in summary, there's nothing new, startling or even worrying in that report because we've actually be told all this before.

1) One year ago it was "44,508 mortgage accounts, or 5.7% of the total residential mortgage accounts, were in arrears for more than 90 days. This compares with 28,603 accounts that were in arrears for more than 90 days at the end of December 2009.
I don't see reason why this figure wont grow to 15-20%, especially when government is planning future tax increases and many people don't see any reason to hold property bought as investment anymore

2) BoI alone is expecting own loses around 6Bn, probably remaining Irish banks will add another 5-8 Bn to that figure.


3) Irish banks also "passed" stress test in 2010 and few months later we had troika in Dublin airport. I mean that official reports means nothing.


The only achievement for now is that country not in chaos, new government is following Fianna Fail plan with very minor additions like robbing private sector pension in order to hide unemployment in free internship scheme, troika is happy, because they are too busy with another PIGS

antoobrien

Count Dooku wrote: »

1) One year ago it was "44,508 mortgage accounts, or 5.7% of the total residential mortgage accounts, were in arrears for more than 90 days. This compares with 28,603 accounts that were in arrears for more than 90 days at the end of December 2009.
I don't see reason why this figure wont grow to 15-20%, especially when government is planning future tax increases and many people don't see any reason to hold property bought as investment anymore

2) BoI alone is expecting own loses around 6Bn, probably remaining Irish banks will add another 5-8 Bn to that figure.


3) Irish banks also "passed" stress test in 2010 and few months later we had troika in Dublin airport. I mean that official reports means nothing.

Good god but you'd be dangerous if you understood anything and weren't just parroting populist rubbish that you've heard elsewhere.

Let's try to make this clear again.

We've set aside (but not invested yet) almost 3 times the liabilities that you've outlined are currently possible.

That's €35 billion vs the €13 billion odd that you believe is currently possible. Using your calculations the maximum will be €16 billion (120% of 13). Last years stress tests indicated that they need to raise antoher €24 billion to cover higher than forecast mortgage losses (which are far higher than current arrears I might add).

I don't believe that the CB splits the arrears figures for the 4 remaining Irish banks vs the entire mortgage market, so the 90,000 would include the arrears from the likes of UB, KBC, HBOS, ACC, NIB etc.

We don't care about their losses because they don't come under the Irish guarantees, so we're not on the hood for them (2 UK, 1 dutch, 1 danish & 1 belgian from that list).

K-9

Count Dooku wrote: »

Sorry
I was wrong because deficit is actually more
in 2010 it was 18,744,208, while in 2011 it reached 24,917,176 mostly due increase on repayments/intetest from 12,492,883 to 27,046,282
It means that saving/cuts must be 20 bn

Count Dooku wrote: »

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2011/enddecexcheqstat.pdf check total ( the last one)

If you actually look at Note 7, that €27 Billion has nothing to do with repayments/interest, that's a different Note entirely.

The deficit is indeed €24 Billion, the €27 Billion relates to how that deficit was financed. You'll find the drawdowns from the EU, IMF and the UK in there as well as income coming in.

Take the couple of billion income of the €27 Billion and you get your deficit.

Count Dooku

antoobrien wrote: »

I don't believe that the CB splits the arrears figures for the 4 remaining Irish banks vs the entire mortgage market, so the 90,000 would include the arrears from the likes of UB, KBC, HBOS, ACC, NIB etc.

Why?

CBI statistics show that just over 51 per cent (€141 billion) of the four FMP institutions’ mortgage loan books are comprised of residential mortgages. Irish mortgages make up about 70 per cent (€98 billion) of these, or 36 per cent of total loans.

http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/documents/12rt11.pdf

woodoo

K-9 wrote: »

If you actually look at Note 7, that €27 Billion has nothing to do with repayments/interest, that's a different Note entirely.

The deficit is indeed €24 Billion, the €27 Billion relates to how that deficit was financed. You'll find the drawdowns from the EU, IMF and the UK in there as well as income coming in.

Take the couple of billion income of the €27 Billion and you get your deficit.

This is where the damage seems to have been done:

Note 6 Non-Voted Capital Expenditure,

2010
(2,045,516)

2011
(11,905,874)

Increase of nearly 10 billion

AlmightyCushion

woodoo wrote: »

This is where the damage seems to have been done:

Note 6 Non-Voted Capital Expenditure,

2010
(2,045,516)

2011
(11,905,874)

Increase of nearly 10 billion

The main increases there seem to be made up of 2.3B for Irish Life and Permanent, 5.3B for bank recapitalisation and 3B for promissory notes all of which were 0 for 2010.

K-9

woodoo wrote: »

This is where the damage seems to have been done:

Note 6 Non-Voted Capital Expenditure,

2010
(2,045,516)

2011
(11,905,874)

Increase of nearly 10 billion

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The main increases there seem to be made up of 2.3B for Irish Life and Permanent, 5.3B for bank recapitalisation and 3B for promissory notes all of which were 0 for 2010.

Indeed, I just assumed we'd spent a fortune in 2010 on them, obviously it was 2009.

Note 4 shows Health spent €1.3 Billion extra, most of the rest seemed to have performed well, even SW stayed static.

So the deficit excluding bank payments has come down and is expected to drop to about €13/14 Billion this year. Next years comparisons, all going well, will look like a huge improvement, just like this years look like a drastic deterioration.

Its important to look behind the one page figures in both cases.


Servicing of National Debt was actually slightly down in note 5, , I don't think it will change much this year because of the way it is structured.