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Morgans · 15-02-2012 9:14am #1

How in holy hell is Salsify not favourite for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham?

Pulled way too hard to win at Leoparstown last weekend yet still had enough in the tank to pull away from the second last. The foxhunters normally is run at a ridiculous pace and can only see him settling better, and much like Zemsky last year come through the pack on the bridle. (no Baby Run this year)

I cannot see how he isnt at least a 4 points shorter than On The Fringe, and I have him 9/2 shot at best for the race.

Raced like the best hunter at the end of last year, and jumped brilliantly quick last weekend. Looks to have developed and has been brought forward from his first race this year, hopefully to have him spot on in March. 7years old and improving. If he settles, I think he has another half stone of improvement in him. Ive taken 12s that were offer after the race. I really dont know why he is 10/1.

mccarte2 · 15-02-2012 3:50pm

Morgans wrote: »

How in holy hell is Salsify not favourite for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham?

Pulled way too hard to win at Leoparstown last weekend yet still had enough in the tank to pull away from the second last. The foxhunters normally is run at a ridiculous pace and can only see him settling better, and much like Zemsky last year come through the pack on the bridle. (no Baby Run this year)

I cannot see how he isnt at least a 4 points shorter than On The Fringe, and I have him 9/2 shot at best for the race.

Raced like the best hunter at the end of last year, and jumped brilliantly quick last weekend. Looks to have developed and has been brought forward from his first race this year, hopefully to have him spot on in March. 7years old and improving. If he settles, I think he has another half stone of improvement in him. Ive taken 12s that were offer after the race. I really dont know why he is 10/1.

Did they ever give a reason why he pulled up on his previous run?

UrbanSea · 15-02-2012 3:57pm

Something was obviously amiss, he had been well supported that day

Stewie Griffin · 15-02-2012 8:13pm

Lads, what makes a horse qualify for a foxhunter chase? Are they poorer quality horses or what? Are they all point to point horses? Like, could a top quality chaser enter it? I'm following racing about twelve years now and I never thought to ask.

shy-tall-knight · 15-02-2012 8:30pm

Stewie Griffin wrote: »

Lads, what makes a horse qualify for a foxhunter chase? Are they poorer quality horses or what? Are they all point to point horses? Like, could a top quality chaser enter it? I'm following racing about twelve years now and I never thought to ask.

They have to have a hunter certificate. To be eligible to get one the horse has to spent at least 4 days on the hunt the previous season.
So yes they tend to be poorer quality horses as jocks must be amateurs and obviously you are not going to use a horse with graded quality out on the hunt.

Nulty · 15-02-2012 8:33pm

I reckon they have to have had at least one run in hunter chases

hucklebuck · 15-02-2012 9:13pm

Not sure Morgans, he won very well at the weekend alright, is he definitley going for the Foxhunters?

Is Baby Run retired now?

Zemsky hasn't run since either, looks like a no brainer alright.

Morgans · 15-02-2012 9:53pm

http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=58903

Baby Run out for the year. Not sure about Zemsky, but would expect him closer to the top in the betting if he was right.

Stewie Griffin · 15-02-2012 10:02pm

Thanks for that.

sonnky · 15-02-2012 10:05pm

Zemsky was ruled out earlier in the week I think!

http://www.p2p.ie/news.php?news_id=10505

finbarrk · 16-02-2012 9:46am

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

They have to have a hunter certificate. To be eligible to get one the horse has to spent at least 4 days on the hunt the previous season.
So yes they tend to be poorer quality horses as jocks must be amateurs and obviously you are not going to use a horse with graded quality out on the hunt.

Not any of them would have 4 days hunting done. A trainer can get hunters certs for his horses for the P2Ps no problem from his local hunt secretary. None of them are too strict regarding the amount of hunting done.

Stewie Griffin · 16-02-2012 9:56am

Care to elaborate so finbarrk? Does this mean better horses can get entered? And do they get entered?

convert · 16-02-2012 10:13am

It depends on the owners and trainers.

Some horses are very good, but the owners just want them to stay point-to-pointing and hunter chasing - Elegant Lord was an example of a really good horse who stayed in the 'amateur' field rather than going up the ranks.

There are still some good pointers that hunt - All our horses are hunted regularly (and they benefit from it because they learned how to look where they put their feet and watch what they're at rather than simply following what's in front), and I know some others down home who are hunted, too. Elliot used to bring Silver Birch out with the Wards to keep things interesting for him.

Stewie Griffin · 16-02-2012 10:46am

Ok, so does that mean that it is theoretically possible to see a high-class chaser in a hunter chase?

mccarte2 · 16-02-2012 2:21pm

Stewie Griffin wrote: »

Ok, so does that mean that it is theoretically possible to see a high-class chaser in a hunter chase?

Usually unlikely as to get into some hunter chases they have to have run in a couple of point to points. Most trainers won't take a chance running a high class horse in a P2P as you never know what the conditions will be like.

But there's a distinct increase in the quality of horses running in P2P's this year - Backstage, Hangover, Footy Facts, Vic Venturi for example probably the pick on the Irish circuit. Barbershop is going down the hunter route in the UK as far as I know.

mr.jingle · 17-02-2012 7:38pm

mccarte2 wrote: »

Barbershop is going down the hunter route in the UK as far as I know.

Ran and won easily today at 8/13 in a 3 horse race at Fakenham.

bit of a bogey · 18-02-2012 12:01am

Basically a hunters chase is a point to point. But no horse can enter if they have run under rules in that season . If the horse is eligble, theres no hassle getting a cert.

You could put a high class horse in the hunters chase at cheltenham but they couldnt have run on the track prevously for the season (hunters chases and X-country excluded).

But as covert says, some owners prefer to have a pointer. Mainly because much lower cost, still get the enjoyment whilst otherwise they might have a poor handicapper never winning a race.

But yeh I say the last two seasons, weve had some of the best pointers we've ever had in the open races. Mostly because people dont have the money to go to the track!

takeone92 · 22-02-2012 2:18am

Would you prefer salsify was a favourite ?you want less money when he wins is that it !best way to make money in this game in my opinion is to ignore the odds!

hucklebuck · 22-02-2012 7:15am

takeone92 wrote: »

Would you prefer salsify was a favourite ?you want less money when he wins is that it !best way to make money in this game in my opinion is to ignore the odds!

You have to consider the odds, if you do your own tissue and compare it to the bookies, then you find where the value is and what to back.

Morgans · 22-02-2012 8:44am

takeone92 wrote: »

Would you prefer salsify was a favourite ?you want less money when he wins is that it !best way to make money in this game in my opinion is to ignore the odds!

No. The only reason I put this up is to alert people to what I believe to be a big rick in the market.

mr.jingle · 22-02-2012 5:30pm

Chapoturgeon has to be a decent bet in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. Has some good course form when romping the Jewson a few years ago and gave Cloudy Lane a serious beating last time out on his first run in nearly over a year

AldilaMan · 22-02-2012 10:00pm

mr.jingle wrote: »

Chapoturgeon has to be a decent bet in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. Has some good course form when romping the Jewson a few years ago and gave Cloudy Lane a serious beating last time out on his first run in nearly over a year

I agree. He was very impressive last time. My question is how does he qualify for the foxhunters. Paul Nicholls still has a share in the horse and stated after his last race that they'll try to qualify him. Does that mean he has to win another hunter chase? I checked the Racing Post and there are no entries for him?

Anybody know the story?

hucklebuck · 22-02-2012 10:09pm

mr.jingle wrote: »

Chapoturgeon has to be a decent bet in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. Has some good course form when romping the Jewson a few years ago and gave Cloudy Lane a serious beating last time out on his first run in nearly over a year

He won it well alright but Cloudy Lane must be 12 or more by now.

Morgans · 22-02-2012 10:15pm

and Cloudy Lane wasn't as impressive as I thought he would be at Ayr last week. I think Chapoturgoen is one of the most viable dangers but I have strong reservations about him staying 3m2f

mccarte2 · 22-02-2012 11:25pm

AldilaMan wrote: »

I agree. He was very impressive last time. My question is how does he qualify for the foxhunters. Paul Nicholls still has a share in the horse and stated after his last race that they'll try to qualify him. Does that mean he has to win another hunter chase? I checked the Racing Post and there are no entries for him?

Anybody know the story?

Think he has to win one more race to qualify. Not sure if P2P's count though and RP mightn't have those entries in advance.

hucklebuck · 22-02-2012 11:30pm

He is also ultra inconsistent, they go some clip in that race so I reckon he would need to be able to see out about 3m4

takeone92 · 23-02-2012 12:38am

a rick to who though?if anything its the bookies mistake that they underestimate the ability of the horse!im taking the odds and running

mccarte2 · 23-02-2012 11:52am

Backstage out of the Foxhunters now. A monumental cock up by the stable means he was never eligible for the race having won too much prize money.

premierstone · 23-02-2012 12:41pm

Some well informed guys in the uk are very sweet on MONKERTY TUNKERTY and he has been backed recently, still some 12s around

UrbanSea · 23-02-2012 1:33pm

Who premierstone?

Salsify now top price 8/1. Morgans he may well be favourite yet.

I take it ante post bets on Backstage will be refunded now rather than a n/r

UrbanSea · 23-02-2012 1:33pm

Salsify actually 5/1 fav with VC

UrbanSea · 23-02-2012 1:35pm

Also, Betfair, Coral and PP are refunding bets on Backstage. I'd imagine the rest will follow suit

premierstone · 23-02-2012 1:48pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Who premierstone?

Trained by Jessica Westwood, won a hunter chase in Warwick 3 or 4 weeks back very impressively, the guy who tiped it to me is a well known owner who has alot of contacts in various yards.

Morgans · 23-02-2012 7:23pm

Thought he was good. Young, bold jumper, and a horse to keep on the right side of. Would be ideal for Statford and maybe even Aintree, leading and staying out of trouble being a big thing. I think if Salsify settles, he wins, and the more front runners the better. Anyone betting on the race, needs to take the jockey's ability into account as well. Its more of an issue than normal.

TheMilkyPirate · 23-02-2012 7:26pm

premierstone wrote: »

Trained by Jessica Westwood, won a hunter chase in Warwick 3 or 4 weeks back very impressively, the guy who tiped it to me is a well known owner who has alot of contacts in various yards.

Was ultra impressive at Warwick.

Morgans · 16-03-2012 12:33pm

Clear favourite now in most books. Only has to go and win now.

convert · 16-03-2012 12:38pm

Morgans wrote: »

Only has to go and win now.

Yeah, that's all - not a big ask at all!! :pac:

handsomecake · 16-03-2012 1:14pm

premierstone wrote: »

Some well informed guys in the uk are very sweet on MONKERTY TUNKERTY and he has been backed recently, still some 12s around

cant see a horse of that name anywhere

UrbanSea · 16-03-2012 1:16pm

He doesn't go

Morgans · 16-03-2012 4:11pm

I've a question................................

preddy · 16-03-2012 4:16pm

Is it why didnt i see this thread before i bet today

Stewie Griffin · 16-03-2012 4:24pm

Fair play, Morgans.

Great shout.

Nulty · 16-03-2012 7:05pm

Well done Morgans. I take it you cleaned up on him!

Morgans · 16-03-2012 10:06pm

Yeah, biggest win since Peddlers Cross Neptune. Chapoturgeon ran a great race. Festival form is such a guide. Its not just the cash, but ante post wins are sweeter.

meriwether · 16-03-2012 10:13pm

Morgans wrote: »

How in holy hell is Salsify not favourite for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham?

Pulled way too hard to win at Leoparstown last weekend yet still had enough in the tank to pull away from the second last. The foxhunters normally is run at a ridiculous pace and can only see him settling better, and much like Zemsky last year come through the pack on the bridle. (no Baby Run this year)

I cannot see how he isnt at least a 4 points shorter than On The Fringe, and I have him 9/2 shot at best for the race.

Raced like the best hunter at the end of last year, and jumped brilliantly quick last weekend. Looks to have developed and has been brought forward from his first race this year, hopefully to have him spot on in March. 7years old and improving. If he settles, I think he has another half stone of improvement in him. Ive taken 12s that were offer after the race. I really dont know why he is 10/1.

Super work, congrats.

Congrats to the Colonel on his Salut Flo bet as well, outstanding work.

hucklebuck · 19-03-2012 10:21pm

Cheers Morgans, I took him at 10's when you flagged his price was willing to wait until the day given the nature of the race but 10's was too good to be true.

Only got 15/2 on the day but was confident all he needed was a clear round, lovely ride by Colman too.

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