Betfred Gold Cup, 16-03-12

TheMilkyPirate

Will start a thread for each of the championship races if that's OK with mods, Cheltenham ante post pick thread is a tad hard to follow.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 3m2f Grade 1 Chase

The blue riband of jumps racing and without doubt the highlight of the festival for many people. Will Kauto star regain the Gold cup and further cement his position as the greatest staying chaser of all time? Or will Long run gain revenge for two defeats this year and continue his march to greatness.

Latest odds:

Long Run (9/4) , Kauto Star (21/5) , Grands Crus (12) , Synchronised (14) , Midnight Chase (16) , Quel Esprit (20) , Weird Al (20) , Quito De La Roque (25) , Burton Port (33) , Captain Chris (40) , Diamond Harry (40) , What A Friend (40) , Bostons Angel (50) , China Rock (50) , Jessies Dream (50) , Tidal Bay (50) , Time For Rupert (50) , Albertas Run (66) , Carruthers (66) , Finians Rainbow (66)

For me I can't see past Long run, The extra two furlongs and the hill at Cheltenham I feel will be the undoing of Kauto. The way he emptied out coming up the hill last year is still fresh in my mind. Of the others i might have an e/w nibble on Midnight chase.

El Ninotorres

I like a bit of E/W on Weird Al...

longshotvalue

I think Long Run should win, but ive a nice tiny bet on Kayto at 68 on betfair from earlier on this year. At the moment i think What a Friend has a great chance of placing judging by his run last year, and 40/1 EW looks value..

HigginsJ

Quel Espirit as 20/1 is a cracking bet e/w. If his jumping holds up can def see him placing.

Huntey

Quel would need to improve plenty to be placed, I don't see the appeal of him personally.

The Hennessy form is absolutely abysmal. I don't think QE will even stay the trip, can see him paddling before he gets to the top of the hill.

HigginsJ

Very little improvement needed for him to be placed. looks a fairly weak renewal outside the top 2, (esp if GC is a non-runner)

Huntey

HigginsJ wrote: »

Very little improvement needed for him to be placed.

How do you make that out? A 2l beating of Roberto Goldback is his best form to date.

HigginsJ

That's a fair point, but he is rated only 3lbs shy of synchronised & 1lb shy of weird al and midnight chase so not much improvement needed.

Like i say i think its a weak GC outside the top 2 and 2nd year chasers have good record in the Gold Cup in the last few years.

I'd have no confidence in Long Run at that price.

HigginsJ

Its hard to have faith backing Kauto because of his age. I'd say Long Run is by far the most likely winner of the race and 9/4 is prob not a bad price. He'll go off alot shorter on the day.

I'm not a fan and wont be backing him but its prob a decent price at the moment.

premierstone

RoverJames wrote: »

I'd have no confidence in Long Run at that price.

9/4 on the defending champ in a two horse race seems very fair to me, I am in the nice position of somehow gettin 7/2 matched after the KG so can afford to have a little saver on Kauto aswell, I think 9/4 is spot on tbh not too skinny and not too big, If I was a layer I think that is exactly how I would price him up.

....I just don't buy into the two horse race thing, if you were a layer and you saw it as a two horse race neither would be 9/4 fav

Colonel Sanders

The thing about the gold cup being a 2 horse race.....

I remember in 2010 many people, myself included, thinking the gold cup was a two horse race & Imperial Commander crashed the party.

I've been wrong about Kauto on his 2 runs this year so might as well go for the hat trick & oppose a 12yo in the gold cup. I'd love to see him win it

Problem is it looks such a weak race outside the big 2, and the ratings boys seem to agree

If there's not going to be a huge upset who'll finish 3rd? Before the pillar I'd taken a flyer NRNB on Captain Chris but not for me now after his performance there. I was hoping he'd go the Ryanair route so I'd get refunded as I thought he'd zero chance

hucklebuck

I just can't trust Long Run and fancy if someone like Midnight Chase or Grands Crus turns the screw a long way out I can see him hitting the deck. Would love to see Kauto win it but even after his two brilliant runs I feel this is just beyond him.

I will be backing Grands Crus if he goes in it, otherwise I would be looking at something at the bigger price maybe Captain Chris he has been off with Yogi Breisner and if that has worked he has to be competitive.

Synchronised is wrecking my head, for all my money he was a Grand National horse, then he wins the Lexus in great style (albeit not beating too much). He is still the guts of a stone off where you need to be to be competitive but given the three concerned I may well have an each way saver on him

mdwexford

It really is a pig of a race this year, last year was bad but this years is even worse. There's never much strength in depth but some of the horses in the top 10 in the betting are very poor indeed.

Colonel Sanders

Nick Mordin has updated his site for the first time in yonks.

Really rates Quel Esprit. Also thinks Big Bucks is vulnerable to Oscar Whisky but that's for the World Hurdle thread!

sonnky

Lads it looked as though Kauto was struggling to get home in The King George.. Was he tying up or was Long Run coming back.. Long Run his jumping is awful and it could cost him. But if he stays on his feet he wins.

ste2010

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The thing about the gold cup being a 2 horse race.....

I remember in 2010 many people, myself included, thinking the gold cup was a two horse race & Imperial Commander crashed the party.

I've been wrong about Kauto on his 2 runs this year so might as well go for the hat trick & oppose a 12yo in the gold cup. I'd love to see him win it

Problem is it looks such a weak race outside the big 2, and the ratings boys seem to agree

If there's not going to be a huge upset who'll finish 3rd? Before the pillar I'd taken a flyer NRNB on Captain Chris but not for me now after his performance there. I was hoping he'd go the Ryanair route so I'd get refunded as I thought he'd zero chance

Didnt Kauto oly beat Imperial Commander by a neck in Haydock Dec 2009 before the gold cup?

ste2010

I am really hoping Grans Crus goes to this race, as mentioned before I agree that the field is no where near as classy as previous years.

If Grans Crus doesnt go I am on Kauto.
some random comments I need to get off my chest: I can't help but feel for some reason Long Run reminds me of the Manchester City of horse racing
he also just looks so small in comparison to the fences..

sonnky

ste2010 wrote: »

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The thing about the gold cup being a 2 horse race.....

I remember in 2010 many people, myself included, thinking the gold cup was a two horse race & Imperial Commander crashed the party.

I've been wrong about Kauto on his 2 runs this year so might as well go for the hat trick & oppose a 12yo in the gold cup. I'd love to see him win it

Problem is it looks such a weak race outside the big 2, and the ratings boys seem to agree

If there's not going to be a huge upset who'll finish 3rd? Before the pillar I'd taken a flyer NRNB on Captain Chris but not for me now after his performance there. I was hoping he'd go the Ryanair route so I'd get refunded as I thought he'd zero chance

Didnt Kauto oly beat Imperial Commander by a neck in Haydock Dec 2009 before the gold cup?

Ya Colonel he beat him in a photo although it was thought that IC had won it. IC then made a bad mistake early on in the King George, Brennan did well to stay on board and came fifth.

UrbanSea

Perhaps I'm blinkered but I'm sure that there is still better to come from Time for Rupert.

16/1 without the top 2 could be a nice each way bet

premierstone

ste2010 wrote: »

Didnt Kauto oly beat Imperial Commander by a neck in Haydock Dec 2009 before the gold cup?

If at all, I still have very very grave doubts about that result and it looked to me and still does that they called it wrong. Also to go back to the original point the GC cup was not built up as a two horse race that year, Imperial Commander was returned 7/1 and this years field is 12/1 bar the top two and the 12/1 shot is a non runner!

Colonel Sanders

premierstone wrote: »

Also to go back to the original point the GC cup was not built up as a two horse race that year, Imperial Commander was returned 7/1 and this years field is 12/1 bar the top two and the 12/1 shot is a non runner!

Twiston Davies gave out on many occasions that the media, the Cheltenham executive & others were focusing on Denman & Kauto to the exclusion of all else.

Nick Mordin was very keen on Imperial Commander from after his Haydock run.

There are often inexplicable gambles on horses gold cup day. I remember a huge punt on Carruthers (in 2010 I think) & last year Kempes was very short on the day. In 08 i was astounded to be able to lay Halcon Genlardais (spelling) at less than 2/1 for a place on the day. I'm sure the same will happen this year on one of the outsiders

premierstone

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Twiston Davies gave out on many occasions that the media, the Cheltenham executive & others were focusing on Denman & Kauto to the exclusion of all else.

Nick Mordin was very keen on Imperial Commander from after his Haydock

I agree the media had built it up big time and they used it as a marketing tool, but very many shrewd judges, Mordin included kept warning about Imperial Commander and it wasnt a gamble on the day, he was well backed for months, I really dont think it compares to this years race, I have gone up and down the list of entries and cannot find a viable alternative to the front two, tbh I cant find anything that will finish with 20 lenghts of them, its so lacking in depth Im even considering backing Tidal Bay e/w @ 50's, maybe Im as mad as the horse himself

Slozer

hucklebuck wrote: »

Synchronised is wrecking my head, for all my money he was a Grand National horse, then he wins the Lexus in great style (albeit not beating too much). He is still the guts of a stone off where you need to be to be competitive but given the three concerned I may well have an each way saver on him

A good pointer here will be to see how Rubi Light gets on in the Ryan Air. If he wins it will frank the form of the Lexus. Synchronised is lightly raced and is a lively outsider.

mdwexford

Slozer wrote: »

A good pointer here will be to see how Rubi Light gets on in the Ryan Air. If he wins it will frank the form of the Lexus. Synchronised is lightly raced and is a lively outsider.

Hes third in the betting, not exactly an outsider.

longshotvalue

I think better odds may be available about Long Run at about 1:00. He may be vunerable today to Burton Port giving him 10lbs. But id still feel hell win the Gold Cup even if he looses today as he really is a very good stayer

convert

Poll added.

Nulty

Medermit is 33/1 NRNB with Totesport and I've taken a stab at that. He is quite a quick horse and it looks to me as if he could improve plenty for the step up to 3m2f.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Medermit is 33/1 NRNB with Totesport and I've taken a stab at that. He is quite a quick horse and it looks to me as if he could improve plenty for the step up to 3m2f.

Despite being Pricewise-d he seems weak on Betfair for the Ryanair. King said during the week he wasn't sure which way to go.

Of course if he doesn't run you get your cash back.

Nulty

Exactly. I wouldn't have backed him otherwise. I saw King talking on ATR this morning and it looks to me as if he will run him in the Gold Cup. He said it would depend on the ground. I wouldn't back Medermit in the Ryanair at all. I've taken decent prices on Betfair for Realt Dubh. Obvious caveats but I'll save that for a Ryanair thread (Is there one?).

I'd say he's leaning towards the Gold Cup.

Colonel Sanders

Long Run is obviously top rated, then there's Kauto who's 12 & has had a scare late in the day. Outside that it's a mediocre Gold Cup

If I owned Medermit I'd be thinking why not have a go. Not a bad call at 33/1 NRNB

ste2010

Is long run going to go???
http://www.joe.ie/horse-racing/horse-racing-news/first-kauto-star-now-long-run-doubts-grow-over-cheltenham-gold-cup-contenders-0021866-1

Colonel Sanders

Chemical has rubbished the rumours.

meriwether

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Chemical has rubbished the rumours.

Are you referring to Henderson?

If so, thats a bit harsh.

Mick990

After watching the story unfold about Kauto star last week i.e. shocking fall, only 50/50 to go and every report since saying he is nearly back to top form and now seeing stories of Long Run looking doubtful, but Tricky Nicky coming out and saying there false I'm wondering is it all just some mind games before the big race ??

I really really really want Kauto to win but I think the hill will find him out . Not sure about Long Run once Kauto starts to turn the screw his jumping usually badly lets him down . Unfortunately I really don't see much there to capitalise on either of these cons . I'm gonna go E/W on Time For Rupert though if he can get any of last years form back (bar chelt) then I think he has a good shout currently 130 on betfair and 13 TBP

hucklebuck

Mick990 wrote: »

After watching the story unfold about Kauto star last week i.e. shocking fall, only 50/50 to go and every report since saying he is nearly back to top form and now seeing stories of Long Run looking doubtful, but Tricky Nicky coming out and saying there false I'm wondering is it all just some mind games before the big race ??

I don't think horses read the papers :pac:

Mick990 wrote: »

I really really really want Kauto to win but I think the hill will find him out .

Find out a dual Gold Cup winner? He may well be paddling going up the hill and the course and trip suit Long Run more but with Midnight Chase and possibly Grands Crus in the race the quick pace ask plenty of questions of Long Runs jumping.

Mick990

Hey Huclebuck I'm on my phone so I don't know how to do the quotes but to reply

I think the mind games are more aimed at the jockeys specially Sam WC .


I used the wrong choice of words there with "found out" I should probably have said his old age will catch up to him going up the hill .

I guess the other arguement is as tired as Kauto has looked this season Long Run hasn't passed him

El Ninotorres

Going to have a bet on Midnight chase in this. Proven around the course and decent value each way.

sting60

Kauto Star is 100% sound and will be confirmed at 8.50 tonight on BBC Radio 5 live.

ft9

sting60 wrote: »

Kauto Star is 100% sound and will be confirmed at 8.50 tonight on BBC Radio 5 live.

I thought the announcement is Monday?

TheMilkyPirate

hucklebuck wrote: »

Find out a dual Gold Cup winner? He may well be paddling going up the hill and the course and trip suit Long Run more but with Midnight Chase and possibly Grands Crus in the race the quick pace ask plenty of questions of Long Runs jumping.

A twelve year old dual Gold cup winner, Yes.

mdwexford

baraca wrote: »

A twelve year old dual Gold cup winner, Yes.

Age didnt stop him doing them all for pace this season.

His stamina is not in question, obviously, Long Run just has it in abundance.

Not sure I buy the whole Cheltenham is Long Runs track though at all, he doesnt jump well enough for it to suit him. The 3m2f trip is what suits him better than 3m races.

hucklebuck

baraca wrote: »

A twelve year old dual Gold cup winner, Yes.

Find out infers Kauto is a worse horse than we think he is.

Did you see his performance as an 11 year & 359 day old horse?

Nulty

He's twelve in 10 days time.

hucklebuck

Nulty wrote: »

He's twelve in 10 days time.

He was 12 on 1st January.

All horses birthdays are 1st January/ 1st June depending on the hemisphere they are foaled in.

RichieLawlor

baraca wrote: »

A twelve year old dual Gold cup winner, Yes.

Kauto Star has never been 12 before. The horse transcends racing imo, a freak, and an all time great. I don't think anything is beyond him

UrbanSea

hucklebuck wrote: »

He was 12 on 1st January.

All horses birthdays are 1st January/ 1st June depending on the hemisphere they are foaled in.

Classified as a 12 year old, although not all horses are born on the first of January I think

sting60

Wincanton gallop report of Kauto star.Started off in parade ring when he lashed out at a cameraman,he went 2 miles with Mon parrain galloped well to the line .He looked very tight and fit.100% and ready for Cheltenham .Paul Nicholls just reported to the masses.... just perfect/absolutely perfect.Will jump two brush hurdles and two fences on Monday with Ruby up.

TheMilkyPirate

hucklebuck wrote: »

Find out infers Kauto is a worse horse than we think he is.

Did you see his performance as an 11 year & 359 day old horse?

I'm not in anyway what so ever saying Kauto star is a worse horse than everyone thinks he is. I've no idea where you got that from.

I Seen it yeah, At Kempton.

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Kauto Star has never been 12 before. The horse transcends racing imo, a freak, and an all time great. I don't think anything is beyond him

I agree i don't think anything is completely beyond him, Just in my personal opinion going by his last two races 3m seems his optimum distance these days. You seen the way long run was closing with every stride at kempton and if it wasn't for the bad mistake he made at the last he may well have mugged him at the line.

After watching kauto completely bottom out when he hit the hill last year i just don't see how at a year older he will all of a sudden outstay long run up it.

RichieLawlor

Grands Crus gone for a walk in the Gold Cup market, looks like the decision has been made